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State of the Race: 10 Days Left


10 Day Poll  

36 members have voted

  1. 1. See the Data in the First Post: Who do you think wins if the election were today?

  2. 2. How do you think the final debate will change the race?

    • I didn't watch the entire or most of the debate, so I can't answer this question.
    • I watched the entire or most of the debate, and I think it will help Trump on election day.
    • I watched the entire or most of the debate, and I think it will help Biden on election day.
      0
    • I watched the entire or most of the debate, and I don't think it will really change how things are currently going.
  3. 3. Who would you vote for if this were the election in 2024?

    • Kamala Harris/Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)
    • Donald Trump Jr/Kanye West (R)
    • 3rd Party/Wouldn't vote.
  4. 4. Who would you vote for if the 2024 election was:

    • Pete Buttigieg/Andrew Yang (D)
    • Tom Cotton/Rand Paul (R)
    • 3rd Party Wouldn't vote
  5. 5. Who would you vote for if the 2024 election had these tickets?

    • Gavin Newsom/Rashida Tlaib (D)
    • Charlie Baker/Mitt Romney (R)
    • Rand Paul/Mike Lee (L)
    • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez/Andrew Yang (G)
    • Another 3rd party or wouldn't vote.


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1 minute ago, Hestia11 said:

Oh. I see where you got confused. 100% of 2016 turnout, not registered voters. Sorry for the misclassification. :)

I agree, if you mean early voting could exceed that

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Just now, admin_270 said:

You're saying it will equal 2016 turnout? Yes, possible.

Yes, early voting by itself (in some states, not the whole country). I find it interesting, just for the figures and percentages sometimes 😆

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15 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

RCP ave. MN is closer than MI.

Yeah, same with 538, but still very close and statistically out of reach for Trump, although the truth might be within the margin of victory if polls are off.

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6 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said:

Highest early voting in Texas. vs. lowest early voting turnout

 

 

---

We can stop acting like Texass will swing to Democrats now. DONE 

That's good for the GOP. Who knows what kinds of voters are turning out in those counties though 🤷‍♂️

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Just now, Hestia11 said:

That's good for the GOP. Who knows what kinds of voters are turning out in those counties though 🤷‍♂️

I mean the patterns look pretty obvious to me, if it was more of a mixed bag I'd think otherwise.

 

For me personally I'm gonna stop acting like Texas is turning blue. That was a fear of mine as of even yesterday, but no longer the case.

 

 

 

The fear now? The typical swing states. Michigan, PA, Nevada. And still, suburban white women and the elderly. 

 

 

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1 minute ago, PoliticalPundit said:

I mean the patterns look pretty obvious to me, if it was more of a mixed bag I'd think otherwise.

 

For me personally I'm gonna stop acting like Texas is turning blue. That was a fear of mine as of even yesterday, but no longer the case.

 

 

 

The fear now? The typical swing states. Michigan, PA, Nevada. And still, suburban white women and the elderly. 

 

 

I think that it won't turn blue, but I'm assuming a lot of those counties are smaller. If some large counties are having medium sized-trends, it'll easily outweigh the small counties voting large. 

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9 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

I think that it won't turn blue, but I'm assuming a lot of those counties are smaller. If some large counties are having medium sized-trends, it'll easily outweigh the small counties voting large. 

Thats' true, I would have liked to know the population of each other 5 counties. My point still stands, I'm not nearly as worried.

 

The fact that Beto and Castro are frustrated that Biden/Kamala aren't going there suggests that they aren't going for it that much either. 

 

if I'm trump, I still go to Texas ONCE before the election though. 

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12 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

Major outlier, but we shall see if it's indicative of a larger trend.

Yup.. if polls ongoing show a narrowing trend by this time next week I'll probably be close to 85-15 odds for Trump to win.

 

As of now it's basically a coin flip.. and if polls move like they did for Biden after debate 1 I'll be at probably 65-35 for Biden to win. 

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Not sure what this indicates for sure, but it does say something that FNC beat out CNN and MSNBC COMBINED as well as all national channels.

 

There's a lot of talk about Anti-Trump enthusiasm... I think this may indicate there is just as much if not MORE of a Pro Trump/conservative enthusiasm as well. The Anti Trump people are just loudest on twitter/media. 

 

Personally, I watched it on FNC bc Brett Baier and Martha Maccallum are the best and least biased team in cable news. The other commentators on the contrary on FNC and obviously the other two cable news channels. 

 

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4 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said:

Not sure what this indicates for sure, but it does say something that FNC beat out CNN and MSNBC COMBINED as well as all national channels.

 

There's a lot of talk about Anti-Trump enthusiasm... I think this may indicate there is just as much if not MORE of a Pro Trump/conservative enthusiasm as well. The Anti Trump people are just loudest on twitter/media. 

 

Personally, I watched it on FNC bc Brett Baier and Martha Maccallum are the best and least biased team in cable news. The other commentators on the contrary on FNC and obviously the other two cable news channels. 

 

Fox is simply a bigger news channel. It usually tops both, so I'm not really surprised by this. Trump also is an entertaining figure to watch, so Trump voters are likely going to want to watch it. Biden voters already know what they're getting, and likely just didn't watch.

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7 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said:

Pro Trump/conservative

I will let you get away with many things.

Conflating Donald Trump and conservatism is not one of them.

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3 hours ago, vcczar said:

but I also find parts of Libertarianism horrifying, mainly because I have empathy and compassion for people that could be discriminated against or exploited when the federal government is weakened in some states.

C'mon man. You know better than this. We Libertarians aren't soulless monsters without compassion and empathy and it's not helpful to frame it like a debate of empathy vs. apathy.

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7 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

Fox is simply a bigger news channel. It usually tops both, so I'm not really surprised by this. Trump also is an entertaining figure to watch, so Trump voters are likely going to want to watch it. Biden voters already know what they're getting, and likely just didn't watch.

Don't watch the debate, you mean?

 

IDK, I think the mail in voting is going to be less than what Democrats are assuming in their projections. 

 

I just want more poll so we can analyze more things :)

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Just now, PoliticalPundit said:

Well he has taken over the Conservative party and his approval rating is sky high within the Conservative party. 

 

I suppose you're the other .. 2-3% who think otherwise. 

i.e. the only sane ones left 😉

Unfortunately, if Donald Trump is re-elected, America will no longer have a conservative party. That's why electing Joe is so crucial, it will save the conservative movement from self-destruction and in doing so save the country.

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Just now, Reagan04 said:

i.e. the only sane ones left 😉

Unfortunately, if Donald Trump is re-elected, America will no longer have a conservative party. That's why electing Joe is so crucial, it will save the conservative movement from self-destruction and in doing so save the country.

lol, fair. 

Hope you realize regardless Trump Jr. is most likely running in 4 years against pence (who will also be aligned, like it or not w Trump).

 

Your best is a total Biden blowout and they take control of all 3 houses. Will it happen? Highly doubt it. Trump is here to stay amigo 

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Just now, PoliticalPundit said:

Don't watch the debate, you mean?

 

IDK, I think the mail in voting is going to be less than what Democrats are assuming in their projections. 

 

I just want more poll so we can analyze more things :)

So far, there have been 50 million early voters. There's still 10 days until Election Day. Usually it picks up the day or so before Election Day as well, so I think early voting may be roughly equal to Election Day turnout this year, depending on all that happens.

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