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State of the Race: 10 Days Left


10 Day Poll  

36 members have voted

  1. 1. See the Data in the First Post: Who do you think wins if the election were today?

  2. 2. How do you think the final debate will change the race?

    • I didn't watch the entire or most of the debate, so I can't answer this question.
    • I watched the entire or most of the debate, and I think it will help Trump on election day.
    • I watched the entire or most of the debate, and I think it will help Biden on election day.
      0
    • I watched the entire or most of the debate, and I don't think it will really change how things are currently going.
  3. 3. Who would you vote for if this were the election in 2024?

    • Kamala Harris/Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)
    • Donald Trump Jr/Kanye West (R)
    • 3rd Party/Wouldn't vote.
  4. 4. Who would you vote for if the 2024 election was:

    • Pete Buttigieg/Andrew Yang (D)
    • Tom Cotton/Rand Paul (R)
    • 3rd Party Wouldn't vote
  5. 5. Who would you vote for if the 2024 election had these tickets?

    • Gavin Newsom/Rashida Tlaib (D)
    • Charlie Baker/Mitt Romney (R)
    • Rand Paul/Mike Lee (L)
    • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez/Andrew Yang (G)
    • Another 3rd party or wouldn't vote.


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As usual, Blue trends for Biden and Red trends for Trump:

  • Biden drops half a point in FL
  • No significant movements otherwise. 
  • No changes to the map

Categories 10
Gen Avg Biden 9.8 (-0.1)
AK avg  
AZ avg Biden 3.5 (0)
FL avg Biden 3.3 (-0.5)
GA avg Biden 0.9 (-0.1)
IA avg Biden 1.0 (-0.1)
MI Avg  
MN avg  
MO avg  
MT avg  
NV avg  
NH Avg  
NC avg Biden 2.9 (0)
OH avg Trump 1.0 (+0.2)
PA Avg  
SC avg  
TX avg Trump 0.5 (-0.1)
WI Avg  
Trump Approval 42.5 (-0.1)
Trump Disapproval 53.7 (-0.1)
Favorability  
Direction of the Country  
Generic Ballot  
Betting Markets  
Clinton vs. Trump 2016 GE  
Biden vs Clinton GE Polls  

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Baker/Romney vs. Paul/Lee was a tough one. 

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Caveat to 2024: I don’t know anything about Baker or Newsome other than their job titles.  I think I’ve heard that Baker is anti-Trump, which is good.  But at this point, I would default to Newsome unless he said/did something appalling that made me take a serious look at Baker instead.

I do appreciate that Romney has positioned himself as the anti-Trump lately, but I also remember that he was against all the Republican things that I like and for all the Republican things that I hate pre-Trump.

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For me Biden will win (excepted if a major thing happens once again)

The question is rather if he would carry 280 EVs or 340-350

For the moment I remain on my 335 Evs projection but I will look at the opinion polls.

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18 minutes ago, Conservative Elector 2 said:

Baker/Romney vs. Paul/Lee was a tough one. 

I find the Baker/Romney one partially compelling. If they won, I could live with that. I like particular aspects of Paul/Lee, but I also find parts of Libertarianism horrifying, mainly because I have empathy and compassion for people that could be discriminated against or exploited when the federal government is weakened in some states. If every state were a New England or West Coast State or Mid-Atlantic state, then I would probably be find with letting states have more control. I don't want to leave the poor, the immigrant, the minority, the woman, etc at the mercy of TX, AL, MS, etc., so long as these people are underrepresented in their states. I guess my guiding factor in governance is wanting fairness. I think that's best implemented if it is the same in every state, so long as there are exception clauses or compromise opt-out clauses for some states. 

4 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

The last one would really depend on how the campaigns decided to come across.

Yeah, if all 4 parties were statistically tied, I'd vote Green. 

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Just now, SilentLiberty said:

Cotton is a super nope but Paul being his VP makes it a "well okay"

Rand Paul is an idiot

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7 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

Caveat to 2024: I don’t know anything about Baker or Newsome other than their job titles.  I think I’ve heard that Baker is anti-Trump, which is good.  But at this point, I would default to Newsome unless he said/did something appalling that made me take a serious look at Baker instead.

I do appreciate that Romney has positioned himself as the anti-Trump lately, but I also remember that he was against all the Republican things that I like and for all the Republican things that I hate pre-Trump.

I really think you would like Baker. He almost seems tailor made for you as a former GOP wanting it to have a soul again. 

  • Governor experience
  • Finance Secretary for MA for awhile.
  • Health Secretary for MA for awhile.
  • CEO of Harvard Pilgrim Healthcare for 10 years.
  • Fiscally conservative, but not extremely so. 
  • Socially liberal. 
  • Supported Trump impeachment
  • Did not vote for Trump
  • Approval rating in one of the Bluest states is routinely in the 60-70%
  • Favorability rating is the same
  • Won 66% in reelection against a Democrat in one of the Bluest states.

He's basically a Rockefeller Republican, which really makes him more similar to national Democrats than national Republicans. 

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6 minutes ago, SilentLiberty said:

Harris/AOC is a super duper nope.

I agree wholeheartedly.

4 minutes ago, SilentLiberty said:

Cotton is a super nope but Paul being his VP makes it a "well okay"

I agree 50% :D

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If say the nominees where Baker/Hogan, what would you see the map looking like? Do you think it would flip the map in anyway?

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5 minutes ago, TheMiddlePolitical said:

If say the nominees where Baker/Hogan, what would you see the map looking like? Do you think it would flip the map in anyway?

https://www.270towin.com/maps/rGzeX

I think Baker and Paul could get all of the red states. Maybe others could be also in play if the Democratic candidate is really bad.

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Huge early voting numbers. Going to be large turnout either way. By Election Day, there could be some states that exceed 90-100% of 2016 turnout.

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No 3: What a cursed election. I would rather write in Patine than vote for those two.

No 4: Okay, it's a bit better. Tom Cotton is a big fat no, I guess Rand helps but still. Pete is cool, so as Yang. But admittedly I would still just go third party. 

No 5: Gavin Newsom can barely keep our state running so their is no way in hell I'm gonna trust him to run the country. I probably would have chosen Baker/Romney but I can't pass up the opportunity to vote for Rand Paul under the Libertarian party banner. AOC/Yang on the same ticket sounds fun though.

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 Aoc/Yang would be my dream ticket.

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15 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

Huge early voting numbers. Going to be large turnout either way. By Election Day, there could be some states that exceed 90-100% of 2016 turnout.

'exceed 90-100% of 2016 turnout' = double turnout? I doubt that.

Be very careful about inferring what total numbers will be based on early voting numbers. Early votes are cannibalizing election day votes to some significant degree.

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23 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Trump campaign announces ad buy > MN.

Why not. Both campaigns should have adds in the top 10 most competitive states, even if polls are showing them outside the margin of victory. 

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1 minute ago, admin_270 said:

'exceed 90-100% of 2016 turnout' = double turnout? I doubt that.

Be very careful about inferring what total numbers will be based on early voting numbers. Early votes are cannibalizing election day votes to some significant degree.

I know that. However, the early voting is simply so high in some states that it's impossible to believe that it will stop. Texas is already near 70% of what voted in 2016, with quite a few days of early voting left. Not inferring victors off of it, but the fact is that turnout is high.

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1 minute ago, admin_270 said:

'exceed 90-100% of 2016 turnout' = double turnout? I doubt that.

Be very careful about inferring what total numbers will be based on early voting numbers. Early votes are cannibalizing election day votes to some significant degree.

My prediction is 72-73% turnout. 

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Just now, admin_270 said:

Texas turnout 2016 was 60% of registered voters. You think you're going to get >100% turnout of registered voters in TX?

Oh. I see where you got confused. 100% of 2016 turnout, not registered voters. Sorry for the misclassification. :)

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