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What I'll Be Looking at When Making my EC prediction in a Week


vcczar
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I'll make my state-by-state predictions for the Presidential Election over the weekend, and then post my results on the Monday before the election. Additionally, I'll make my Senate, Gubernatorial, and House guesses, although I'll be less confident in these since I haven't been keeping up with them as much. 

For the Pres election, here's what I'll be looking at in my prediction:

  • What is the state-by-state polling average?
  • What is the state polling averages of only the A-grade polls?
  • What is the state polling average for Conservative pollsters like Trafalgar?
  • Which direction is state-by-state polling trending over the last week?
  • How much has state-by-state polling trended since the 100 days until election mark?
  • Which direction is the favorability margin trending between candidates?
  • Which direction is Trump's approval trending?
  • Which direction is Trump's disapproval trending?
  • Which direction is the Direction of the Country meter trending?
  • Which direction is Generic Party vote trending?
  • What do the states look like if the inaccuracy margin of 2016 is applied to the 2020 election?
  • How are White Males in battleground states polling in 2020 compared to 2016?
  • How are White Women in battleground states polling in 2020 compared to 2016?
  • How are Blacks in battleground states polling in 2020 compared to 2016?
  • How are Hispanics n battleground states polling in 2020 compared to 2016?
  • Consider the undecided % margin between 2016 to 2020 and factor that in.
  • Consider if the economy is significantly improving for middle class and lower middle class people in battleground states that seems tangible enough to be decisive on election day.
  • Consider the direction the state leans politically as a factor. 
  • Check to see what forms of voter suppression are common in each state and to which party it tends to benefit in that state. 
  • Consider the national polling margin trend as an indicator of national mood for a candidate. 
  • Consider the polls for voters that dislike both Trump and Biden but have leaned towards a decisions (arguably the most helpful poll if I can find the data)
  • Apply a 3rd party prediction based off 2016 3rd party results, 2020 3rd party polling, and take into account 3rd parties tend to poll higher than the votes they get, probably because 3rd party voters ultimately don't vote if their party can't win, or they change their mind in the last second. Along with this, keeping in mind that the Libertarian candidate is not the moderate that Johnson/Weld was, which means the ticket may hurt Trump more than Biden. 
  • Aim to find data of early, mail-in voting, and which states have the highest % of that, understanding that polls suggests that this voting greatly favors Biden. Find data that supports that Biden is favored among early voters. 
  • Aim to find data that supports that the majority of Election Day voters will be Trump supporters. Perhaps apply Trump bonus to states with few mail-in voters.
  • Consider the consensus map of major pollsters
  • Consider the pollster maps of those notable pollsters that got it right last time. 

I'm not sure what else I should use. Basically, polling average will be about 50% of the ingredients. All the rest will combine for about the other 50%

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This is the Election Map if the election were held today and I applied the factors that I'm considering. This map is definitely more Trump-friendly than the consensus maps. AZ and WI are very close. NC is the closest--basically a tie--, but I gave it to Trump. :

mGAGv.png

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Just now, Hestia11 said:

Same with you, bud ;)

You keep saying "game over" like you wish it to be true...there's still 10 days left of this thing.

😎

Well if he does win those 2 it is game over sooo 😀

 

And yes, I do wish it to be true. 

Just bc I say, "Trump is going to dominate ____" doesn't mean he definitely will, but it's just my opinion. :)

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3 hours ago, PoliticalPundit said:

Trump is winning PA and Nevada. Game over. 

 

I also HIGHLy doubt Biden wins both Wisconsin and Michigan. 

You say “game over” an incredible amount of times.

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