Hestia11 567 Posted October 21 Report Share Posted October 21 I thought it'd be a fun thing to do for everyone to post what they thought the EC would end up looking like. You can do leans if you want, but I decided not to with mine. 4 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
PoliticalPundit 283 Posted October 21 Report Share Posted October 21 will let you know after the 3rd debate Quote Link to post Share on other sites
vcczar 1,224 Posted October 21 Report Share Posted October 21 15 minutes ago, jnewt said: This is Trump's likely only winning map if PA goes for Biden. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
admin_270 789 Posted October 21 Report Share Posted October 21 15 minutes ago, jnewt said: WI and not MI or PA for Trump - that's interesting. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
vcczar 1,224 Posted October 21 Report Share Posted October 21 2 minutes ago, admin_270 said: WI and not MI or PA for Trump - that's interesting. PA is more likely to go for Trump than WI, which is more likely to go for Trump than MI. I think there is a possibility of WI going for Trump before PA, but it's a remote chance. I think there's no chance MI goes for Trump before WI and PA do. I don't think it's helped that Trump has particularly targeted their governor the way that he has. I think that's one reason MI is like +7 for Biden for the last few weeks. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Zenobiyl 208 Posted October 21 Report Share Posted October 21 I think Trump will outperform in Minnesota and Florida. Biden will carry Michigan easily, and Wisconsin and Pennsylvania by narrow margins (Wisconsin will be narrower than Pennsylvania). Nevada will be closer than anticipated, but won’t flip. New Hampshire will remain solid due to Biden campaign ad buys. Virginia will remain blue, but slightly less so due to the running mate no longer being from that state. Some unlikely alternatives I think can happen: Blue Arizona, Red Minnesota, Red New Hampshire, Blue Iowa, Red Michigan Quote Link to post Share on other sites
PoliticalPundit 283 Posted October 21 Report Share Posted October 21 I don't like Trump's chances at all in Minnesota. I think Michigan can be a surprise. PA's the big key. already giving Trump Florida as a lock, but PA is critical for both. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Cenzonico 223 Posted October 21 Report Share Posted October 21 R - 306 D - 232 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
vcczar 1,224 Posted October 21 Report Share Posted October 21 5 minutes ago, Cenzonico said: R - 306 D - 232 Only ME-2 has any shot at going Trump in Maine. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
WVProgressive 56 Posted October 21 Report Share Posted October 21 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Zenobiyl 208 Posted October 21 Report Share Posted October 21 2 minutes ago, WVProgressive said: If this happens I will shit my pants 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Edouard 121 Posted October 21 Report Share Posted October 21 My no toss-up current map would be : But honestly I may change it till election day, it's the map as I see it if the election was held today. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
superezione 49 Posted October 21 Report Share Posted October 21 Optimistic, I'll say. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Zenobiyl 208 Posted October 22 Report Share Posted October 22 3 minutes ago, WVProgressive said: If this happens I will shit my pants Quote Link to post Share on other sites
BeetleJuice 42 Posted October 22 Report Share Posted October 22 Fitting end to 2020 1 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
billay 163 Posted October 22 Report Share Posted October 22 2 hours ago, vcczar said: PA is more likely to go for Trump than WI, which is more likely to go for Trump than MI. I think there is a possibility of WI going for Trump before PA, but it's a remote chance. I think there's no chance MI goes for Trump before WI and PA do. I don't think it's helped that Trump has particularly targeted their governor the way that he has. I think that's one reason MI is like +7 for Biden for the last few weeks. There was a poll released today showing Trump and Biden tied in WI Quote Link to post Share on other sites
SilentLiberty 217 Posted October 22 Report Share Posted October 22 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
vcczar 1,224 Posted October 22 Report Share Posted October 22 9 minutes ago, SilentLiberty said: That would be very odd if NC went for Biden but FL, MI and PA did not. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
SilentLiberty 217 Posted October 22 Report Share Posted October 22 Just now, vcczar said: That would be very odd if NC went for Biden but FL, MI and PA did not. I think Trump has a higher chance of losing his lighter shades than Biden does of losing his lighter shades. So yes I think NC has the best chance of going blue out of those 4. I also think NC will vote red down ticket but the state as a whole will vote for Biden just enough to push him over the edge there. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
superezione 49 Posted October 22 Report Share Posted October 22 49 minutes ago, SilentLiberty said: I think Trump has a higher chance of losing his lighter shades than Biden does of losing his lighter shades. So yes I think NC has the best chance of going blue out of those 4. I also think NC will vote red down ticket but the state as a whole will vote for Biden just enough to push him over the edge there. You think NC won't re-elect Cooper? That's the first I've heard that one, most people seem to think of him as a shoe-in for re-election. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
SilentLiberty 217 Posted October 22 Report Share Posted October 22 14 minutes ago, superezione said: You think NC won't re-elect Cooper? That's the first I've heard that one, most people seem to think of him as a shoe-in for re-election. I think NC is highly competitive all around but leaning red outside of the presidential election. I could also see Cooper getting re-elected but I think the senate race is shaking things up for the state. Trump v Biden is a slightly different beast. Biden, Cooper, and Tillis could all be winners in their respective races in NC. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ThePotatoWalrus 471 Posted October 22 Report Share Posted October 22 Somehow I didn't see this post before I made my prediction. Here's mine: (basically @Edouard's but I have Maine's conservative district going red) 1 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Berg2036 47 Posted October 22 Report Share Posted October 22 2 hours ago, ThePotatoWalrus said: Somehow I didn't see this post before I made my prediction. Here's mine: (basically @Edouard's but I have Maine's conservative district going red) I like that map I think its very close to how it will end up being. One thing that I would be most surprised if Biden pulls off a victory in Arizona. I think in regards to earlier posts about North Carolina from my family and the info I've gotten from there Tillis is in my opinion has the best chance of the republican state wide candidates because the Cunningham scandal is "bigish" because of the connections with the military and North Carolina is a very big Military state with lots of vets and bases there. I'm going to do one after the debate tonight because all my classes also have assignments for it so I just want to wait until how the 3rd debate falls out. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Actinguy 862 Posted October 22 Report Share Posted October 22 I had a simple guiding philosophy when I began designing this map: Biden loses every state that he's not averaging +4 in. Some of the states are close -- there's quite a few where he's leading by 3-point-something and more polls between now and then would get him an average of +4, which would change my map. But going simply by my +4 map as it currently stands, Biden beats Trump 279 - 259. That said...I keep looking at Arizona, which by my method would be red. I really think the Trump-McCain feud (and his widow's endorsement of Biden) plays here. So I've optimistically swung Arizona blue even though Biden doesn't necessarily need it to win. 1 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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