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Predicted Electoral College margins


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I thought it'd be a fun thing to do for everyone to post what they thought the EC would end up looking like. You can do leans if you want, but I decided not to with mine. 

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15 minutes ago, jnewt said:

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This is Trump's likely only winning map if PA goes for Biden.

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2 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

WI and not MI or PA for Trump - that's interesting.

PA is more likely to go for Trump than WI, which is more likely to go for Trump than MI. I think there is a possibility of WI going for Trump before PA, but it's a remote chance. I think there's no chance MI goes for Trump before WI and PA do. I don't think it's helped that Trump has particularly targeted their governor the way that he has. I think that's one reason MI is like +7 for Biden for the last few weeks.

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I think Trump will outperform in Minnesota and Florida. Biden will carry Michigan easily, and Wisconsin and Pennsylvania by narrow margins (Wisconsin will be narrower than Pennsylvania). Nevada will be closer than anticipated, but won’t flip. New Hampshire will remain solid due to Biden campaign ad buys. Virginia will remain blue, but slightly less so due to the running mate no longer being from that state.

Some unlikely alternatives I think can happen: Blue Arizona, Red Minnesota, Red New Hampshire, Blue Iowa, Red Michigan

 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Cenzonico said:

R - 306

D - 232

 

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Only ME-2 has any shot at going Trump in Maine. 

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2 hours ago, vcczar said:

PA is more likely to go for Trump than WI, which is more likely to go for Trump than MI. I think there is a possibility of WI going for Trump before PA, but it's a remote chance. I think there's no chance MI goes for Trump before WI and PA do. I don't think it's helped that Trump has particularly targeted their governor the way that he has. I think that's one reason MI is like +7 for Biden for the last few weeks.

There was a poll released today showing Trump and Biden tied in WI

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9 minutes ago, SilentLiberty said:

20201021_180604.jpg

That would be very odd if NC went for Biden but FL, MI and PA did not.

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Just now, vcczar said:

That would be very odd if NC went for Biden but FL, MI and PA did not.

I think Trump has a higher chance of losing his lighter shades than Biden does of losing his lighter shades. So yes I think NC has the best chance of going blue out of those 4. I also think NC will vote red down ticket but the state as a whole will vote for Biden just enough to push him over the edge there. 

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49 minutes ago, SilentLiberty said:

I think Trump has a higher chance of losing his lighter shades than Biden does of losing his lighter shades. So yes I think NC has the best chance of going blue out of those 4. I also think NC will vote red down ticket but the state as a whole will vote for Biden just enough to push him over the edge there. 

You think NC won't re-elect Cooper? That's the first I've heard that one, most people seem to think of him as a shoe-in for re-election.

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14 minutes ago, superezione said:

You think NC won't re-elect Cooper? That's the first I've heard that one, most people seem to think of him as a shoe-in for re-election.

I think NC is highly competitive all around but leaning red outside of the presidential election. I could also see Cooper getting re-elected but I think the senate race is shaking things up for the state. Trump v Biden is a slightly different beast. Biden, Cooper, and Tillis could all be winners in their respective races in NC. 

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2 hours ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

Somehow I didn't see this post before I made my prediction.

Here's mine: (basically @Edouard's but I have Maine's conservative district going red)

 electionprediction.thumb.png.7f35461fa84ff9101cc363c7e1eeb351.png

I like that map I think its very close to how it will end up being. One thing that I would be most surprised if Biden pulls off a victory in Arizona. I think in regards to earlier posts about North Carolina from my family and the info I've gotten from there Tillis is in my opinion has the best chance of the republican state wide candidates because the Cunningham scandal is "bigish" because of the connections with the military and North Carolina is a very big Military state with lots of vets and bases there. I'm going to do one after the debate tonight because all my classes also have assignments for it so I just want to wait until how the 3rd debate falls out.

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I had a simple guiding philosophy when I began designing this map:  Biden loses every state that he's not averaging +4 in.  Some of the states are close -- there's quite a few where he's leading by 3-point-something and more polls between now and then would get him an average of +4, which would change my map.   But going simply by my +4 map as it currently stands, Biden beats Trump 279 - 259.  

That said...I keep looking at Arizona, which by my method would be red.  I really think the Trump-McCain feud (and his widow's endorsement of Biden) plays here.  So I've optimistically swung Arizona blue even though Biden doesn't necessarily need it to win.
image.png.6850b46a0b7019b93143f3c5642d7e3f.png
 

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