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Rasmussen Reports: Biden leads Trump, 49%-46%. Down from 12% pts 2 weeks ago


PoliticalPundit
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The poll echoes another out on Wednesday, the IDB/TIPP survey, that had the race even tighter, 48.1% for Biden to 45.6% for Trump.

The IDB/TIPP poll is often described as one that called the 2016 race. Rasmussen was the one that got the popular vote percentage right between Hillary Clinton and Trump

 

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/two-key-polls-show-biden-tumbling-trump-rising-49-46

 

dun dun dun dun 

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16 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

Yes focus on two polls that help your opinion...

All of this will wash by Thursday which will make a bigger impact on the race.

Rasmussen?? 😂 

These were the two most accurate polls in 2016 my friend 

 

and yes I agree the 3rd debate will matter a lot, a draw/win helps Trump w momentum. but a performance like the 1st debate will not be good 

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3 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

Honestly talking about polls as much as we do here is confusing :D some will say that only Rasmussen and co. are reliable, and some will say that they're the only ones that are unreliable. I doubt anyone will change their opinion so it's probably best to just watch the average and wait for election day to come.

I did see something interesting that only 1/3 of voters plan to vote on election day. That is a big thing if it ends up being true. I'd guess it's closer to half and half, but we shall see.

source? haven't seen that anywhere

 

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3 minutes ago, Zenobiyl said:

Individual polls are always unreliable because they can be biased or flawed in their methodology. Poll averages are a better indicator, even if they aren’t 100% correct they will be more correct most of the time

so what would the poll averages of 2016 have indicated on Election Day?

 

 

the 2 polls I linked were the 2 most accurate in 2016. what would change in 2020 if they were anomalies then and anomalies now? 

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5 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said:

so what would the poll averages of 2016 have indicated on Election Day?

 

 

the 2 polls I linked were the 2 most accurate in 2016. what would change in 2020 if they were anomalies then and anomalies now? 

2016 is a case study of one.

Much has changed since then, such as a worldwide pandemic and more favorable opponent to name two.

 

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10 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

https://fortune.com/2020/10/20/2020-election-vote-in-person-vote-by-mail-early-voting/

There's still a large batch (About 15%) of people who are unsure how they'll vote

But the breakdown is

33% on election day, in person

17% in person, before election day

32% ballots by mail

18% unsure (which may end up being some people who don't vote, as well)

yeah you had said 1/3rd may vote in person which I dont see happening.

 

the 18% unsure as you said I think will end up with maybe... 10% of that not voting.

 

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11 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

Yeah. It's definitely misleading, but still the real numbers are pretty interesting. It'll definitely be a big question heading into Election Day.

ridiculous as always, this is why the media is perceived so badly 

its all advertising 

 

 

yes the numbers are interesting. what if there are fights/disruptions at the polling places or it takes hours longer than expected and people leave? a lot of unknowns 

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16 hours ago, PoliticalPundit said:

so what would the poll averages of 2016 have indicated on Election Day?

 

 

the 2 polls I linked were the 2 most accurate in 2016. what would change in 2020 if they were anomalies then and anomalies now? 

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

RCP averages were only 1.1% off. Within margin of error.

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1 minute ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

HOWEVER, the battleground states were way off. On the left is RCP average, right is real result.

Ohio: Trump 3.5%/Trump 8.1%
Wisconsin: Clinton 6.5%/Trump 0.7%
Michigan: Clinton 3.4%/Trump 0.3%
Pennsylvania: Clinton 1.9%/Trump 0.7%
Iowa: Trump 3%/Trump 9.5%
North Carolina: Trump 1%/Trump 3.7%
ME-2: Trump 0.5%/Trump 10.4%

The only exception is Nevada
Nevada: Trump 0.8%/Clinton 2.4% (I forgot he was leading in this state before the election)

Honestly I'd say the results of this election depends on how much you trust the polls.

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7 hours ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

HOWEVER, the battleground states were way off. On the left is RCP average, right is real result.

Ohio: Trump 3.5%/Trump 8.1%
Wisconsin: Clinton 6.5%/Trump 0.7%
Michigan: Clinton 3.4%/Trump 0.3%
Pennsylvania: Clinton 1.9%/Trump 0.7%
Iowa: Trump 3%/Trump 9.5%
North Carolina: Trump 1%/Trump 3.7%
ME-2: Trump 0.5%/Trump 10.4%

The only exception is Nevada
Nevada: Trump 0.8%/Clinton 2.4% (I forgot he was leading in this state before the election)

Honestly I'd say the results of this election depends on how much you trust the polls.

which is the only thing hat really matters, true? 

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