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Admin election prediction update - 2 weeks to go!


Anthony_270
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40 minutes ago, TheMiddlePolitical said:

But in a way it is. The wider of margin of victory, the more states that are won, the higher chance that victory is affirmed

In some sense that's certainly right. If my questions were about NM, CO, or VA instead of the blue wall, presumably my % would be higher.

But the method I'm using, relying more on fundamentals than polls, doesn't as neatly translate specifically into this or that state.

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5 minutes ago, Edouard said:

I strongly believe that the best chance for Trump to remain is to sabotage vote by mail.

Or to play a 2000 card by delaying counts of votes by mail and to ask the Supreme Court to close the election before a recount ends.

These would all count, and are to some degree factored in to my 90%.

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