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Admin election prediction update - 2 weeks to go!


Anthony_270
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85% -> 90% likely Trump will win the election. I expect this number to go to 0 or 100 once we get to election day.

Not much has changed since my last election prediction update. Because this is largely based on fundamentals, it really shouldn't.

The big question mark in the last update was Trump's Covid-19 diagnosis. I guessed at the time he would recover and be back on the campaign trail soon - that has happened. Even in the hospital he was campaigning more than Biden!

Now he is again hosting massive rallies in battleground states and seems to have his 'Dragon Energy' back. Biden is holed up presumably somewhere in Delaware doing debate prep, in doing so being off the campaign trail for 25% of the remaining campaigning days. If Biden has a big debate victory we might judge it to have been the correct strategy, but the truth is Biden draws anemic crowds wherever he goes, so barnstorming might not really make sense for him regardless - just minimize chances of a major gaffe and lay low seems to be the campaign's instinct, and might not be a bad one.

Trump's strategy, on the other hand, is to downplay ads (he views them as overrated) and do massive rallies. This is similar to 2016, where he was outspent by Hillary Clinton's campaign. This dovetails with the massive ground game he has been building for 3.5 years. Trump campaign claims 2.5 million volunteers, exceeding Obama's record of 2.2 million.

Outside of that, not too much to report. IBD/TIPP national poll has tightened significantly and Times/Siena has strangely decided to stop national polling 2 weeks out. PA RCP ave. is Biden +6.5 -> +3.7. Trump is +0.1 relative to 2016 in battleground state polls as of right now (but this can change quickly and is of questionable applicability - I would be neither comforted by this nor concerned either way). Some good economic news has come in (housing numbers). Voter registration numbers were discussed in the last update. Early voting trends are interesting, but difficult to read due to the unprecedented dynamics of the campaign.

The other large question mark last time was ACB's nomination. It appears at this point that she will be confirmed before the election. It is not clear to me what effect this will have on voter preferences - perhaps she will consolidate or energize Republican conservative voters, perhaps energize Democrats who want to see court packing with a Biden admin, perhaps she will boost vote amongst Catholics to Trump - but I'm not certain where the net gains of this might be. If confirmed, she might affect decisions made by the SC, if the result of the election comes down to that, however.

There are a few surprises in where campaigns are focusing with 2 weeks to go. PA, MI, WI, FL are all predictable. But NV, MN, AZ are interesting. All in all, though, these are the states I would expect the election to come down to.

Probably update this again with 1 week to go. 

https://270soft.ipbhost.com/topic/18072-admin-election-prediction-update/

https://270soft.ipbhost.com/topic/17907-admins-election-prediction-update/

 

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Wow! You remind me of Scott Adams. Such a credible poster/admin here giving Trump 90% odds is comforting to see.  

I'm hedging going all in on Trump till post debate 3. But so far the trends look excellent for him. Just like 4 years ago he is narrowing the gap to within the margin of error and then we let the Shy Trump/red wave voter sail him to the win.

Covid 19 turned out be a blessing in disguise for Trump as it stopped the taxes, poor debate/Proud boys narrative.

Since he started posting his videos from the hospital, I think he's won every single day vs. Biden. All the momentum is with Trump.

--

Trump's rallies have only gotten larger crowd wise (even w covid 19). I'm very comfortable w where he is at the moment in the race. It might even be better if he's slightly behind in "polls" come Election Day tbh. 

"Trump's strategy, on the other hand, is to downplay ads (he views them as overrated) and do massive rallies. This is similar to 2016, where he was outspent by Hillary Clinton's campaign. This dovetails with the massive ground game he has been building for 3.5 years. Trump campaign claims 2.5 million volunteers, exceeding Obama's record of 2.2 million."

Had a discussion about this w a poster last night and we totally disagree on the effect of ads/fundraising on a campaign. They said Biden had the better campaign/organization and I argued Trump's ground game was far stronger. I believe this still to be 100% true. Not even mentioning how many new registered Republicans they have added since 2016.

 

Think the ACB nomination is more likely to energize Republicans than have X amount of New Democrats running to the ballots. Republicans vote, Democrats have to be forced to unless they are highly engaged (Obama). 

 

The one thing that could potentially scare me is Texas. Similar to my fears in 2016, but I think Biden has a slightly (8-12% better chance?) at winning Texas than Clinton did. Not sure if it factors in, but how a candidate as awful as Beto nearly beat Cruz is scary to me. IF they actually run a strong candidate Cruz could have lost. Other than that just waiting till the next debate. 

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Personally I think 80-90% is too generous considering how narrow his victory was in 2016. Biden is preferable to Hillary in the minds of independents, and that is likely all he needs to be. Trump rallies and Biden’s inactivity seem to support my position of 30-40% Trump. Trump knows his support among independents likely won’t match 2016 (Biden is more favorable than Hillary after all), and is betting everything on increasing turnout from his base (the rallies). Biden knows he has the advantage, and wishes to be as uncontroversial as possible to maintain broad appeal (even if his voters aren’t enthusiastic supporters).

Trump has a chance of winning, but his actions and rhetoric are those of an underdog.

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20 minutes ago, Zenobiyl said:

Personally I think 80-90% is too generous considering how narrow his victory was in 2016. Biden is preferable to Hillary in the minds of independents, and that is likely all he needs to be. Trump rallies and Biden’s inactivity seem to support my position of 30-40% Trump. Trump knows his support among independents likely won’t match 2016 (Biden is more favorable than Hillary after all), and is betting everything on increasing turnout from his base (the rallies). Biden knows he has the advantage, and wishes to be as uncontroversial as possible to maintain broad appeal (even if his voters aren’t enthusiastic supporters).

Trump has a chance of winning, but his actions and rhetoric are those of an underdog.

his actions and rhetoric would be the same regardless, that's just how he operates 

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15 minutes ago, Zenobiyl said:

Personally I think 80-90% is too generous considering how narrow his victory was in 2016. Biden is preferable to Hillary in the minds of independents, and that is likely all he needs to be. Trump rallies and Biden’s inactivity seem to support my position of 30-40% Trump. Trump knows his support among independents likely won’t match 2016 (Biden is more favorable than Hillary after all), and is betting everything on increasing turnout from his base (the rallies). Biden knows he has the advantage, and wishes to be as uncontroversial as possible to maintain broad appeal (even if his voters aren’t enthusiastic supporters).

Trump has a chance of winning, but his actions and rhetoric are those of an underdog.

Yeah, I can't see any reasonable or logical argument for Trump's reelection chances being any more than 60-65%, which translates to Biden being 40-35%. What argument is there that Biden only has a 10% chance of winning right now? Where's that evidence? What is that argument? 10%? 

If I didn't know @admin_270 wrote this, I'd pass it off has having been written by Donald Trump Jr (i.e. insider-bandwagon propaganda). 

This is not to say, that I can't see any argument for Trump winning. Arguing a 60-65% chance he wins seems reasonable based of arguments Admin and other Trump supporters have made, although they don't convince me. 

As for me, I had Biden at a 99% chance of winning, which had some foundation based off polls showing Biden leading at 350+ EVs and over 10% of the PV, along with 100% of pundits showing a Biden landslide. Additionally, huge drops in white male support for Trump, crucial states Trump must win being outside of any margin of victory for him, historic increase in early mail-in voting (supposedly overwhelming for Biden), etc. Statistically it was impossible; thus allowing Trump even 1% chance is being generous under those conditions, supported by this evidence. That is, there was no sound evidence of Trump winning or being able to win.

As of yesterday, I've been starting to rethink the chances in light of Trump's recovery, campaigning, and the fact that what upset people about Trump two weeks ago (including the awful debate) have now fades since it's last news cycle, and the fact that Trump hasn't really had any bad news for him in the last few days. Additionally, my own natural pessimism is creeping back in as PTSD from 2016 reemerges. I do think Biden is likely to win, but I now give Trump a 20% chance. That is, I have Biden at 80%. 

Unlike with Admin, I don't think massive rallies will do much for anyone other than those that are already going to vote for Trump. However, in a state that might need only 20,000 more voters to change their mind, it could help. I think crowd size is a very poor measure for a Covid election, especially when one candidate is purposely not seeking to have large crowds. Very poor measure, indeed. 

Overall, Admin's projection is based primarily on crowd size. Yet, he ignores that Biden can get +7 margin vs Trump in necessary battleground states in polls without even leaving his room. Clearly, the rallies are only really affecting those that will vote Trump or already have voted Trump via mail-in. 

The only things I can surmise from this is that Admin believes there's 1) Many more undecided voters than in 2016 -- (although the numbers seems to imply that there are much fewer undecideds if you compare national and state polls from 2016 to 2020). 2) That the shy Trump voter thing is large enough that it will overwhelm Biden in states where he is leading anywhere from +3 (Florida) to +11 (New Hampshire), with PA, MI, and WI at +6 to +8 on any given day. 

Is there any evidence in Admin's reports to substantiate a 90% chance of Trump victory considering all evidence. No. 

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2 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Yeah, I can't see any reasonable or logical argument for Trump's reelection chances being any more than 60-65%

I anticipate my % will go to 0 or 100 by the election day. It's based largely on fundamental factors. I have laid those out in the various update posts, the previous two linked above.

Basically the only thing at this point that gives me pause are the polls, and those account for the 10% chance of a Biden victory at this point.

10 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I think crowd size is a very poor measure for a Covid election, especially when one candidate is purposely not seeking to have large crowds. Very poor measure, indeed.

It is a measure, as well as helping propel a candidate to victory.

11 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Overall, Admin's projection is based primarily on crowd size.

No, but enthusiasm is a fundamental factor that weighs into it.

12 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Many more undecided voters than in 2016

No, I don't believe this. The Trump campaign is running a motivation campaign, not a persuasion campaign.

12 minutes ago, vcczar said:

That the shy Trump voter thing is large enough that it will overwhelm Biden in states where he is leading anywhere from +3 (Florida) to +11 (New Hampshire), with PA, MI, and WI at +6 to +8 on any given day.

If you are saying polls might be off by a significant margin, then yes, I think they might be in key states. There are multiple lines of evidence for this, that I have gone over before.

14 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I do think Biden is likely to win, but I now give Trump a 20% chance. That is, I have Biden at 80%.

Interesting!

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23 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said:

gonna be so obvious in retrospect if Biden loses. 0 rallies, no knocking on doors, they basically gave him the nomination bc Obama begged them to... never had a candidate had less enthusiasm for himself since..... Mitt Romney? 

Then all hope is truly lost. A dictatorship is practically guaranteed. I suppose that prospect pleases you?!

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8 minutes ago, Wiw said:

Then all hope is truly lost. A dictatorship is practically guaranteed. I suppose that prospect pleases you?!

I'd like Trump to win. You clearly see him as a monster/adjective/adjective so I don't think we're going to be agreeing on any future discussion re: if I'm happy Trump will win lol. 

 

 

To be fair though, Biden is an awful candidate. That's at least 30% of the problem. I think Clinton given the COVID, race relations etc.. of 2016 would have beat Trump today given the circumstances 

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1 minute ago, Actinguy said:

how do you see the electoral vote playing out?

Good question. My best guess at this point is Trump 269-300, FWIW.

GA, OH, AZ, NC, FL, IA, NE-3 -> Trump puts it at 259.

The remaining questions I would have are the blue wall (MN, WI, MI, PA), NV, ME-2, and NH.

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Just now, admin_270 said:

Good question. My best guess at this point is Trump 269-300, FWIW.

GA, OH, AZ, NC, FL, IA, NE-3 -> Trump puts it at 259.

The remaining questions I would have are the blue wall (MN, WI, MI, PA), NV, ME-2, and NH.

im a little concerned with Arizona and Ohio.

 

PA and Michigan will go Trump I think. 

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3 minutes ago, TheMiddlePolitical said:

I don't really understand why you have Trump at 95% if you have questions about the states requiring Trump to get over 270, it more sounds like you actually have Trump at 55% electoral college wise, but 95% your gut wise. PA alone could put Trump over, so I don't know why trump doesn't focus on his needed states, then just PA alone. MN,MI,and even WI seem unrealistic at this point. So Does PA but it is his easiest path.

The magnitude of victory isn't the same as the certainty of victory.

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14 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Good question. My best guess at this point is Trump 269-300, FWIW.

GA, OH, AZ, NC, FL, IA, NE-3 -> Trump puts it at 259.

The remaining questions I would have are the blue wall (MN, WI, MI, PA), NV, ME-2, and NH.

Thanks.  I'd agree to your 259.  I also think he gets ME-2.  But I don't see anything beyond that, which only puts him at 260.

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47 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said:

I'd like Trump to win. You clearly see him as a monster/adjective/adjective so I don't think we're going to be agreeing on any future discussion re: if I'm happy Trump will win lol.

So you'd support a dictatorship!

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You are bold !

I strongly believe that the best chance for Trump to remain is to sabotage vote by mail.

Or to play a 2000 card by delaying counts of votes by mail and to ask the Supreme Court to close the election before a recount ends.

These are the most potential scenarios where I think Trump can be re-elected honestly.

A third would be that Joe Biden tells he hates america or get a comas in the third presidential debate.

But if this election remains as stable as it has been untill now, and that recounts are equal everywhere with no problem to count votes by mail, Trump has lost.

Actually Trump even tried to play again the Hunter card like a "Hillary Clinton e-mails" card which probably played a big role in his election 4 years ago but only strong trumpist care about stories and rumors around Hunter.

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