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State of the Race: 12 Days Left


vcczar
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12 Day Poll  

29 members have voted

  1. 1. See the Data in the First Post: Who do you think wins if the election were today?

  2. 2. Does Trump win both PA and FL again?

    • He wins both of these states, despite trailing in PA by -7 and FL by -3 in the polls right now.
    • He only wins FL (according to 538, this increases his chance of winning from 12% to 39%)
    • He only wins PA (according to 538, this increases his chance of winning from 12% to 73%)
  3. 3. Do you expect Thursday's debate to be better than the first debate?

    • Yes
    • It will be as mismanaged and unpresidential as the first one.
    • It will be worse than the first one.
      0
  4. 4. Do you think Biden is doing better among white male voters than Hillary Clinton did? This demographic is often seen as the demographic that most helped Trump narrowly win PA, WI, and MI.

    • Yes (likely means Biden will outperform Hillary Clinton in PA, WI, and MI--which means he might have a better shot at winning these states than Trump)
    • About the same (which means a Trump victory is probably 50/50 in PA, WI, and MI)
    • No (which means a Trump victory in PA, WI, and MI is probably more likely than it was in 2016, since this means they dislike Biden more than Hillary Clinton)
  5. 5. If Biden flops completely during the debate, sparking rumors of dementia, and Trump comes off as having done rather well, would this mark a turning point in the election?

    • Yes, Trump will probably narrow the gap and pull of a reelection victory.
    • I don't know.
    • No, debates don't really move the polls that much, besides so many people have already voted while Biden was +10 vs Trump.
    • No, everyone's already made up their mind. Never Trumper's would vote for Biden's corpse over a breathing Trump.


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Just to chime in with something I'm sure that is in the back of everyone's mind: This is very similar to what the forum looked like a few weeks out from the 2016 election. As we get closer to the vote, tensions get higher and people get crazier than the normally are. It'll go back to normal soon, I imagine 😛 

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1 minute ago, Herbert Hoover said:

Just to chime in with something I'm sure that is in the back of everyone's mind: This is very similar to what the forum looked like a few weeks out from the 2016 election. As we get closer to the vote, tensions get higher and people get crazier than the normally are. It'll go back to normal soon, I imagine 😛 

lets avoid anything personal then, pure policy please 😂 

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4 minutes ago, Zenobiyl said:

It’s not about getting undecideds. It’s about getting more of your supporters to vote.

if that's the case then trump is definitely going to win if it's based on the stronger base 

 

I thought the whole argument was getting undecideds (who may have voted for trump in 2016 like suburban women/elderly) to flip back to Biden? 

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Just now, Hestia11 said:

Yeah. I believe Texas is the best chance for a Dem-style upset that Trump got in 2016. Moreso than Georgia for sure.

I think Trump's organization is super strong everywhere after 4 years (and 2016 was a mess organizationally). So not THAAT worried, however.. 

 

was talking to some poster last night, and did mention fearing Texas. If a horrible paint by numbers candidate like Beto O'Rourke can nearly beat Ted Cruz, something's up. I don't really follow Texas politics too much, but wouldn't hurt to go so they remember him lol. 

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8 hours ago, Herbert Hoover said:

Just to chime in with something I'm sure that is in the back of everyone's mind: This is very similar to what the forum looked like a few weeks out from the 2016 election. As we get closer to the vote, tensions get higher and people get crazier than the normally are. It'll go back to normal soon, I imagine 😛 

I thought the board has been really civilized,  got ugly around the convention, calmed down quite a bit. Now the ugliness is rising back up. Could be a really ugly November because I dont think all the results will be in election night.

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22 minutes ago, billay said:

I thought the board has been really civilized,  got ugly around the convention, calmed down quite a bit. Now the ugliness is rising back up. Could be a really ugly November because I dont think all the results will be in election night.

today's been a very polite and civilized day, I don't think the ugliness has "risen back" at all today whatsoever. 

 

otherwise no comment. 

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The Hunter Biden thing actually hurt Biden with the working class during the primaries early on before the impeachment. Hes never really came up with an answer to it this might actually work in Trumps favor.

 

Though as I've said before when Trump doesnt talk his poll numbers go up. The packing the courts and flip flopping on fracking appears to have made some what of a dent in polling. If Trump is smart during the debate all he talks about during the debate is the economic recovery, fracking, green new deal and packing the court. This puts Biden on defense for the first time all campaign. 

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Just noticed something neat on the FiveThirtyEight map

If Trump wins Texas, Ohio, Iowa, North Carolina, and Georgia, all realistic states, his chance of winning jumps to 50% (with Florida and Arizona also, it's 73%). If the polls narrow a bit by election day, he might have a chance.

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1 minute ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

Just noticed something neat on the FiveThirtyEight map

If Trump wins Texas, Ohio, Iowa, North Carolina, and Georgia, all realistic states, his chance of winning jumps to 50% (with Florida and Arizona also, it's 73%). If the polls narrow a bit by election day, he might have a chance.

All ride on tomorrow 

But I love his odds just don't go nutty trump pleaseeee lmao 

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More observations: 

Biden wins Maine's 2nd district, he wins 97% of the time.

Biden wins Arizona, he wins 98% of the time.

Biden wins Georgia, or North Carolina or Florida, he wins 99% of the time.

Biden wins Ohio or Iowa, or Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, it's virtually impossible for Trump to win.

Biden has more room for error here, meaning any small mistake on the Trump campaign would be destruction, but Biden could do whatever he wants (and I think his ending of his campaign early is genius and minimizes room for gaffes and error)

I still predict a landslide Biden victory, but that rests on this debate.

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