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State of the Race: 12 Days Left


vcczar
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12 Day Poll  

29 members have voted

  1. 1. See the Data in the First Post: Who do you think wins if the election were today?

  2. 2. Does Trump win both PA and FL again?

    • He wins both of these states, despite trailing in PA by -7 and FL by -3 in the polls right now.
    • He only wins FL (according to 538, this increases his chance of winning from 12% to 39%)
    • He only wins PA (according to 538, this increases his chance of winning from 12% to 73%)
  3. 3. Do you expect Thursday's debate to be better than the first debate?

    • Yes
    • It will be as mismanaged and unpresidential as the first one.
    • It will be worse than the first one.
      0
  4. 4. Do you think Biden is doing better among white male voters than Hillary Clinton did? This demographic is often seen as the demographic that most helped Trump narrowly win PA, WI, and MI.

    • Yes (likely means Biden will outperform Hillary Clinton in PA, WI, and MI--which means he might have a better shot at winning these states than Trump)
    • About the same (which means a Trump victory is probably 50/50 in PA, WI, and MI)
    • No (which means a Trump victory in PA, WI, and MI is probably more likely than it was in 2016, since this means they dislike Biden more than Hillary Clinton)
  5. 5. If Biden flops completely during the debate, sparking rumors of dementia, and Trump comes off as having done rather well, would this mark a turning point in the election?

    • Yes, Trump will probably narrow the gap and pull of a reelection victory.
    • I don't know.
    • No, debates don't really move the polls that much, besides so many people have already voted while Biden was +10 vs Trump.
    • No, everyone's already made up their mind. Never Trumper's would vote for Biden's corpse over a breathing Trump.


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As usual, Blue trends for Biden and Red trends for Trump.

  • Biden's national polling average margin vs Trump has dropped almost 1 pt in two days, although it's still in double digits. 
  • MN has fallen from +9 for Biden to +7, but it's still out of Trump's orbit, statistically speaking.
  • Trump's approval is now back up to 43%; however, his disapproval also went up.
  • Nothing significant happened in competitive states. 
  • No changes to the map. 

Categories 12 Days Left
Gen Avg Biden 10.0 (-0.3)
AK avg  
AZ avg Biden 3.7 (-0.2)
FL avg Biden 3.5 (+0.1)
GA avg Biden 0.8 (-0.2)
IA avg Biden 0.1 (-0.2)
MI Avg  
MN avg  
MO avg  
MT avg  
NV avg  
NH Avg  
NC avg Biden 3.1 (+0.1)
OH avg Trump 0.2 (+0.1)
PA Avg  
SC avg  
TX avg Trump 1.3 (0)
WI Avg  
Trump Approval 43.1 (+0.3)
Trump Disapproval 53.7 (+0.2)
Favorability  
Direction of the Country  
Generic Ballot  
Betting Markets  
Clinton vs. Trump 2016 GE  
Biden vs Clinton GE Polls  

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David Wasserman from the Cook Political Report says in this article that, based on polling in individual house districts, Biden is about halfway back to Obama 2012 levels of support among working-class white voters: 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/10/20/biden-trump-battle-white-voters-district-level-polls-are-revealing/

If that's accurate, then I think he should do well enough in the Rust Belt to win, given how close the WI/PA/MI trifecta were last time around. Halfway back to Obama 2012 should be enough to tip those states into Biden's column along with the increased support among college-educated suburban voters.

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31 minutes ago, Entrecampos said:

By my models, the secure national margin of victory for Biden is 5.2%, if he wins by 5.2% or more he has 100% chances of being president, but if he has less than this, its possible for him a defeat. And defeat is the most probable scenario if Biden wins by less than 3.4%.

So he's currently right at the cusp of potential defeat then? Interesting, I''ll take it :) 

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37 minutes ago, RI Democrat said:

David Wasserman from the Cook Political Report says in this article that, based on polling in individual house districts, Biden is about halfway back to Obama 2012 levels of support among working-class white voters: 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/10/20/biden-trump-battle-white-voters-district-level-polls-are-revealing/

If that's accurate, then I think he should do well enough in the Rust Belt to win, given how close the WI/PA/MI trifecta were last time around. Halfway back to Obama 2012 should be enough to tip those states into Biden's column along with the increased support among college-educated suburban voters.

That's assuming he retains all the numbers of the 2016 Democratic Party in terms of POC/progressives which I believe has only increased for Trump.

 

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14 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said:

That's assuming he retains all the numbers of the 2016 Democratic Party in terms of POC/progressives which I believe has only increased for Trump.

 

What makes you believe that they've increased for Trump?

Biden won the Democratic primary because of overwhelming support from black voters.

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2 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

What makes you believe that they've increased for Trump?

Biden won the Democratic primary because of overwhelming support from black voters.

There's some data showing Trump doing a little better with people of color than in 2016:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-losing-ground-with-white-voters-but-gaining-among-black-and-hispanic-americans/

 

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2 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

What makes you believe that they've increased for Trump?

Biden won the Democratic primary because of overwhelming support from black voters.

mainstream article on why, but my thoughts are more based in anecdotes I've seen and visiting websites etc that are predominantly POC and their thoughts on they think will win etc 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-losing-ground-with-white-voters-but-gaining-among-black-and-hispanic-americans/

And even this is understated imo. 

 


If the race is really tight, Trump’s maintaining this sliver of Black support could be critical. In an analysis of the 2016 election, Griffin, John Halpin and Ruy Teixeira argued that Clinton would have won Michigan and Pennsylvania if Black voters in those states had supported her at the levels they did Barack Obama. (About 95 percent of black voters in those states backed Obama, and about 90 percent supported Clinton.)

 

the main factor I see is that African Americans/progressives in general aren't happy w either candidate (Which is not the case with certain demographics of white voters). Hispanics though will be the group with the largest increase in voters for Trump ESPECIALLY in Florida. 

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1 minute ago, RI Democrat said:

There's some data showing Trump doing a little better with people of color than in 2016:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-losing-ground-with-white-voters-but-gaining-among-black-and-hispanic-americans/

 

lmao we linked to the same article

 

and when data shows "a little better".. same metric as the shy trump voter imo. 

 

We'll see, but what I've maintained for a while I'm most confident in even before these articles were being written was that Trump's POC vote would skyrocket. I've also added progressives to the list as of about last week.

 

Having said that, the big issue for Trump is white suburban women AND especially the elderly re. Covid. The elderly vote could really swing it for Biden. I don't think Trump's done a good job at all campaigning for them, though more recently he's tried w suburban women. 

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2 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said:

We'll see, but what I've maintained for a while I'm most confident in even before these articles were being written was that Trump's POC vote would skyrocket. I've also added progressives to the list as of about last week.

I don't think many self-identified progressives are going to vote for Trump. At most they might stay home or vote third party.

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6 minutes ago, RI Democrat said:

I don't think many self-identified progressives are going to vote for Trump. At most they might stay home or vote third party.

Ah yes, the same goes for POC. 

 

Not voting = a Trump vote in essence which especially goes for POC in swing states

More likely progressives will vote 3rd party from what I've seen. 

Not sure if that's quantifiable in data after the election (not voting)? 

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4 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said:

Ah yes, the same goes for POC. 

 

Not voting = a Trump vote in essence which especially goes for POC in swing states

More likely progressives will vote 3rd party from what I've seen. 

Not sure if that's quantifiable in data after the election (not voting)? 

No, not voting does not equal a Trump vote.  I would prefer they voted Biden, but not voting is certainly preferable to someone voting for Trump.  Because those are two different things.  One is voting.  The other is not voting.  They could not be more different.

Your argument here is that POC are growing to love Trump, and yet also someone who is POC choosing to not vote helps Trump because POC hate Trump.  Which is it?

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2 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

No, not voting does not equal a Trump vote.  I would prefer they voted Biden, but not voting is certainly preferable to someone voting for Trump.  Because those are two different things.  One is voting.  The other is not voting.  They could not be more different.

Your argument here is that POC are growing to love Trump, and yet also someone who is POC choosing to not vote helps Trump because POC hate Trump.  Which is it?

Totally disagree. And many Democrats do as well. Especially in swing states.

 

"Growing to love"? No. I'm saying Trump's margins w Hispanics/African Americans etc compared to 2016 could potentially increase by 4-6% pts AND a lot of the same voters will not be voting as well for either candidate. That's not growing to love, that's deciding who they think is better even if they disagree with some of his antics etc 

 

 

Your underlined sentence makes no sense. A POC not voting at all means POC hate Trump? Or they just don't like either candidate. 

 

If you don't realize someone not voting for either candidate helps Trump (who previously in say 2012 voted for Obama), we fundamentally disagree. 

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13 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said:

Totally disagree. And many Democrats do as well. Especially in swing states.

 

"Growing to love"? No. I'm saying Trump's margins w Hispanics/African Americans etc compared to 2016 could potentially increase by 4-6% pts AND a lot of the same voters will not be voting as well for either candidate. That's not growing to love, that's deciding who they think is better even if they disagree with some of his antics etc 

 

 

Your underlined sentence makes no sense. A POC not voting at all means POC hate Trump? Or they just don't like either candidate. 

 

If you don't realize someone not voting for either candidate helps Trump (who previously in say 2012 voted for Obama), we fundamentally disagree. 

My response makes no sense because the premise I am responding to (yours) makes no sense.  

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1 minute ago, Hestia11 said:

That's your personal opinion. I don't think any sort of rally really helps anywhere, no undecideds are going to rallies. Harris would probably talk to more undecideds in that kind of setting than Trump would in a large rally.

I didn't say undecideds relevance. I'm talking about in-person relevance. There's almost no one there. Of course it's picked up by media, and broadcast to undecideds.

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4 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

That's your personal opinion. I don't think any sort of rally really helps anywhere, no undecideds are going to rallies. Harris would probably talk to more undecideds in that kind of setting than Trump would in a large rally. 

It’s not about getting undecideds. It’s about getting more of your supporters to vote.

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