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State of the Race: 13 Days Left


13 Day Poll  

27 members have voted

  1. 1. See the Data in the First Post: Who do you think wins if the election were today?

  2. 2. Which issue is going to matter more on election day?

    • Covid cases, deaths, and rhetoric involving Covid.
    • The stock market and unemployment #s and rhetoric involving middle class jobs and wage #s.
  3. 3. Is Hunter Biden going to play a major role on election day?

    • Yes, something will come out that will turn away Biden voters.
    • No, they've tried to find something significant, and the only people that think he is an issue are people already voting Trump.
  4. 4. Do you expect Trump to lead in the avg national polls at any time before election day? He's currently -10.3 behind Biden.

  5. 5. Do you expect Trump to lead in the avg poll in any of the following battleground states at some point before election day?

    • PA (Trump is losing by -6 or more)
      0
    • MI (Trump is losing by -7 or more)
      0
    • WI (Trump is losing by -7 or more)
    • NC (Trump is losing by -3 or more)
    • FL (Trump is losing by -3 or more)
    • AZ (Trump is losing by -3 or more)
    • GA (Trump is winning by about 1)
    • TX (Trump is winning by about 1)
    • IA (Biden is barely winning and is less than 1 pts above Trump)
    • OH (Trump is up about 1 or 2)


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His call out of RCP is strange because they are more accurate than he is. He dismisses them because they use crappy polls like Rassmussen. However if you look at more reliable polls they are showing t

Trump poll numbers have improved significantly in Florida since last month. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_biden-6841.html

Yeah, I messed up. Noticed that back on day 30 something. It kind of fits with what I'm doing anyway because the Monday before election day I won't be doing the forecast, I'll be doing my prediction,

2 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

@vcczar Or perhaps more accurate to say 14 days left. Then day 0 is election day.

Yeah, I messed up. Noticed that back on day 30 something. It kind of fits with what I'm doing anyway because the Monday before election day I won't be doing the forecast, I'll be doing my prediction, which will likely be more cautious than the forecast. Expect me to swing a lot of things to Trump that other pundits and polls aren't going to do. The forecast map is a polling forecast with a handicap added to lean Red states. My prediction will use that + the state poll trends + national poll tend + favorability tend + direction of country trend + approval/disapproval trend, with emphasis of the trend in the last week before election. If I can find it, I'll add in trend among voters that dislike both candidates in battleground states and among white men in battleground states. There's probably something else I'm leaving out. 

If you see my Best Case scenario thread, you'll see three maps -- one is the map that I'm sort of expecting to see on election day, barring any major news that causes a campaign to rise or fall noticeably. 

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13 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Where Biden booked spending on TV per electoral vote (note these can change) until election.

Biggest surprises to me are NV and MN, > than NC. Top 4 are what you would expect. PA, MI, WI, FL. Then AZ.

 

NH makes the least sense. He’s up over +10 there. He must be giving up on OH and IA. 

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5 minutes ago, vcczar said:

NH makes the least sense. He’s up over +10 there. He must be giving up on OH and IA. 

Might be worried about a NH + NV combo = 10 EVs, which would mean Trump wouldn't have to crack the blue wall (if he holds FL, AZ, OH, IA, and so on).

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Maybe Biden's strategy is more to build a solid blue wall than to aim for a "big" win along the lines of, say, 315+ EVs. Which makes some sense - *if* they're confident that vote suppression and partisan court rulings won't somehow convert the blue wall states into wins for Trump. But perhaps they think they have a chance at winning all the blue wall states by enough of a margin that lawsuits, recounts, etc. can't reverse the outcome in any of them. 

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"Republicans take lead among early & mail-in voting in Michigan & overwhelmingly in TX, as Dem youth vote crashes in PA & WI"

Corroborates other things I've been reading. Youth vote down in early voting.

 

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2 hours ago, billay said:

Silver is terrible 

I think he's pretty accurate. He was actually one of the first people to criticize the Democrats supposed "blue wall" in the rust belt states, and that was in 2015 before Trump was even the nominee.

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1 minute ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

I think he's pretty accurate.

Accurate at what? 2018 Congressional elections? Yes. 2016 Presidential election? No. Better than most left-leaning prognosticators? Yes. Accurate? No.

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16 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

"Republicans take lead among early & mail-in voting in Michigan & overwhelmingly in TX, as Dem youth vote crashes in PA & WI"

Corroborates other things I've been reading. Youth vote down in early voting.

 

Damn, too lazy to check his source but this is really surprising. Also I vaguely remember checking back a while ago that there were more registered Republicans than Democrats in Michigan as well. (Though it doesn't really mean anything considering Kentucky's had more registered democrats for decades)

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I'm confused over where that's coming from

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/two-weeks-till-election-day-democrats-have-big-lead-early-n1243991

From NBC, what they've tallied so far the GOP is ahead in TX, yes, but MI looks roughly even, so does WI, and PA is vastly led by the Dems. From what I've read, TX GOP has pushed mail in ballots as well as the TX Dems, so that could end up being closer both in the mail-ins and election day count than some other states, where it'll tilt in either direction. 

You have said yourself not to read into early vote totals, because by the same amount Reps may be leading in TX, they're trailing in Florida. Early voting won't tell us anything until the actual results come in. There may be different factors at play state-by-state. Older voters may be doing more mail-in ballots, throwing the party lines aside because they want to be safe and not go into polling booths.

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9 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

You have said yourself not to read into early vote totals

Yes. Too many unknowns. Most interesting to me is claim Dems "circulating anxiety-ridden memos" (could be exaggeration, who knows) and 2. Youth vote down.

But correct. Take with big grain of salt.

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1 minute ago, admin_270 said:

Yes. Too many unknowns. Most interesting to me is claim Dems "circulating anxiety-ridden memos" (could be exaggeration, who knows) and 2. Youth vote down.

But correct. Take with big grain of salt.

Yeah. Could also be trying to get rid of complacency on the left as well. Young voters are also the safest from COVID, so it's possible that could also factor in.

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27 minutes ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

I think he's pretty accurate. He was actually one of the first people to criticize the Democrats supposed "blue wall" in the rust belt states, and that was in 2015 before Trump was even the nominee.

His call out of RCP is strange because they are more accurate than he is. He dismisses them because they use crappy polls like Rassmussen. However if you look at more reliable polls they are showing that swing states like PA are now within the margain of error.

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2 minutes ago, billay said:

His call out of RCP is strange because they are more accurate than he is. He dismisses them because they use crappy polls like Rassmussen. However if you look at more reliable polls they are showing that swing states like PA are now within the margain of error.

That's why it's best to use a sampling of all kinds of polls. To make artificial boundaries is a little suspicious, particularly when it seems 538 is factoring out GOP-leaning pollsters while keeping Dem-leaning ones in. Even if they're less quality in the polling world, doesn't mean that they're missing something. 

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1 hour ago, admin_270 said:

Sanders to PA on Sat.

To my knowledge based on twitter (which is arguably an extremely poor metric for actual data) it seems the progressives have only gotten more restless and annoyed at the Democrats since 2016. 

 

The big shock will be progressives not voting for Biden and going 3rd party or not voting. 

 

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4 hours ago, admin_270 said:

Trump campaign has more volunteers than Obama.

"Trump now has more than 2.5 million volunteers—breaking Barack Obama's record of 2.2 million."

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-has-more-campaign-volunteers-obama-ever-did-democrats-are-nervous-1540398

Whole article is most interesting thing I've read in the past few days.

I believe Biden’s strategy of being non-controversial (by laying low) could work out for him, but It’s a risky strategy. 

It seems the race will come down to which strategy is more effective: having wide appeal or an energized base.

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