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State of the Race: 13 Days Left


13 Day Poll  

27 members have voted

  1. 1. See the Data in the First Post: Who do you think wins if the election were today?

  2. 2. Which issue is going to matter more on election day?

    • Covid cases, deaths, and rhetoric involving Covid.
    • The stock market and unemployment #s and rhetoric involving middle class jobs and wage #s.
  3. 3. Is Hunter Biden going to play a major role on election day?

    • Yes, something will come out that will turn away Biden voters.
    • No, they've tried to find something significant, and the only people that think he is an issue are people already voting Trump.
  4. 4. Do you expect Trump to lead in the avg national polls at any time before election day? He's currently -10.3 behind Biden.

  5. 5. Do you expect Trump to lead in the avg poll in any of the following battleground states at some point before election day?

    • PA (Trump is losing by -6 or more)
      0
    • MI (Trump is losing by -7 or more)
      0
    • WI (Trump is losing by -7 or more)
    • NC (Trump is losing by -3 or more)
    • FL (Trump is losing by -3 or more)
    • AZ (Trump is losing by -3 or more)
    • GA (Trump is winning by about 1)
    • TX (Trump is winning by about 1)
    • IA (Biden is barely winning and is less than 1 pts above Trump)
    • OH (Trump is up about 1 or 2)


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As usual, Blue trends for Biden and Red trends for Trump.

  • Biden drops 0.5 in the polls nationally --- to +10.3. If this trend continues at about this rate, then I think Trump will have a shot. Unlike many of you, I do think the national polls are important to see how people are trending. There are shared national moods that translate to national momentum. It makes little since to think someone will drop 5 pts nationally over time and during that same time go up 5 pts in a specific state. Most states are far less provincial than they used to be, especially battleground states.
  • Biden's lead in FL also drops by 0.5
  • Trump's disapproval drops by 0.7, but his approval stays the same. 
  • The rest of the states moved minimally and movement was split between the candidates. 

 

Categories 13 Days Left
Gen Avg Biden 10.3 (-0.5)
AK avg  
AZ avg Biden 3.9 (+0.1)
FL avg Biden 3.4 (-0.5)
GA avg Biden 1.0 (-0.3)
IA avg Biden 0.3 (+0.1)
MI Avg  
MN avg  
MO avg  
MT avg  
NV avg  
NH Avg  
NC avg Biden 3.0 (-0.2)
OH avg Trump 0.1 (-0.3)
PA Avg  
SC avg  
TX avg Trump 1.3 (0)
WI Avg  
Trump Approval 52.8 (0)
Trump Disapproval 53.5 (-0.7)
Favorability  
Direction of the Country  
Generic Ballot  
Betting Markets  
Clinton vs. Trump 2016 GE  
Biden vs Clinton GE Polls  

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His call out of RCP is strange because they are more accurate than he is. He dismisses them because they use crappy polls like Rassmussen. However if you look at more reliable polls they are showing t

Trump poll numbers have improved significantly in Florida since last month. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_biden-6841.html

Yeah, I messed up. Noticed that back on day 30 something. It kind of fits with what I'm doing anyway because the Monday before election day I won't be doing the forecast, I'll be doing my prediction,

16 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

538 was less accurate than RCP in 2016. This is the pot calling the kettle black.

I don't think that was due to RCP being better pollsters. Their arbitrary restrictions just sort of lucked out. It really isn't a good polling average if you aren't using but a handful of polls. 

Also, do you know if RCP was more accurate at every polling level or just more accurate on the presidential election?  

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1 minute ago, vcczar said:

Their arbitrary restrictions just sort of lucked out.

Yes, or maybe their methodology for these statewide polls was just better than 538's. But we've already debated this.

2 minutes ago, vcczar said:

do you know if RCP was more accurate at every polling level or just more accurate on the presidential election

I'm sure they weren't more accurate at every polling level.

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Silver also seems to favour live-caller polls. One thing I learned recently re live-caller polls is their response rates have gone way done.

"While evidence suggests that well-funded, telephone-based surveys still work, they have become much more difficult and expensive to conduct. Difficult because the swarm of robocalls Americans now receive, along with the development of call blocking technologies, means that lots of people don’t answer calls from unknown numbers. Response rates have gone from 36% in 1997 to 6% today."

https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2019/11/19/a-field-guide-to-polling-election-2020-edition/

The halcyon days of live-caller polling were back when they were getting >30% response rates.

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9 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Silver also seems to favour live-caller polls. One thing I learned recently re live-caller polls is their response rates have gone way done.

"While evidence suggests that well-funded, telephone-based surveys still work, they have become much more difficult and expensive to conduct. Difficult because the swarm of robocalls Americans now receive, along with the development of call blocking technologies, means that lots of people don’t answer calls from unknown numbers. Response rates have gone from 36% in 1997 to 6% today."

https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2019/11/19/a-field-guide-to-polling-election-2020-edition/

The halcyon days of live-caller polling were back when they were getting >30% response rates.

I don't think he favors them, he just doesn't believe in ignoring them. 

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1 minute ago, admin_270 said:

Seems to be saying they makes averages more accurate. Otherwise, why care?

"and 0% of it consists of live-caller polls, it's not going to be a very reliable average"

I think that a sample of poll types will be more accurate than just one kind, so I'm not sure why that's a sticking point. 

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Just now, admin_270 said:

How do you know that?

How do you know it isn't?

Different types will create a better average. It allows diversification and if one of the types of polling is missing something, another may be catching it, and therefore making the average better.

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Just now, Hestia11 said:

How do you know it isn't?

Different types will create a better average. It allows diversification and if one of the types of polling is missing something, another may be catching it, and therefore making the average better.

I didn't say either way. I'm asking how you know.

Adding different types doesn't mean a better average. It *could* mean a better average, but you have to demonstrate that. They might be less accurate than the other polls, and therefore make the overall average less accurate.

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Just now, admin_270 said:

I didn't say either way. I'm asking how you know.

Adding different types doesn't mean a better average. It *could* mean a better average, but you have to demonstrate that. They might be less accurate than the other polls, and therefore make the overall average less accurate.

It could, but there's more of a chance that it makes it better. How do I demonstrate something that hasn't even happened yet? Of course it flows both ways, but it's better than one being completely wrong and missing it entirely and having an awful average than risk averaging good with bad and making it only somewhat off.

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Just now, admin_270 said:

Times/Siena won't be doing any more national polling this cycle. 😆

Are they focusing on state/Senate? I've seen that a bit. It's honestly a little weird, they're a touch more preferential to Trump than some other pollsters. Maybe they did something to course correct that others aren't? If they end up getting it right, I'm sure they'll bill it that way. ;)

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Just now, Hestia11 said:

Are they focusing on state/Senate? I've seen that a bit. It's honestly a little weird, they're a touch more preferential to Trump than some other pollsters. Maybe they did something to course correct that others aren't? If they end up getting it right, I'm sure they'll bill it that way. ;)

Don't know.

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Just now, admin_270 said:

How do you know?

If you keep repeating and not listen to what I'm saying then there is really no reason to keep discussing it. I've made my opinions on the topic known, and you continue to just ask the same question knowing you'll get the same answer. Let's not waste either of our time.

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Just now, Hestia11 said:

If you keep repeating and not listen to what I'm saying then there is really no reason to keep discussing it. I've made my opinions on the topic known, and you continue to just ask the same question knowing you'll get the same answer. Let's not waste either of our time.

I'm just trying to see if you have specific reasons for thinking adding in more types of polls will make the ave. more accurate. 

If it's just your guess or hunch, then OK - fair enough.

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Trump campaign has more volunteers than Obama.

"Trump now has more than 2.5 million volunteers—breaking Barack Obama's record of 2.2 million."

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-has-more-campaign-volunteers-obama-ever-did-democrats-are-nervous-1540398

Whole article is most interesting thing I've read in the past few days.

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