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Trump/Biden Best Case Scenarios


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This is how I see things currently. 

Here is Trump's best case scenario. Note: this only occurs if polls, including national polls, start tightening daily from here on out. I think this map is very unlikely. I think a likely Trump wins map will have Biden winning NV and Trump winning with 290. I allow for NV because of the low population, which could make it more volatile. :

BNoQv.png

Here is my best case scenario for Biden. This occurs if he holds the current margins and at least slowly expands from here on out. This is also very unlikely, but I think it is more likely than the above.:

1WwmV.png

If I were to put my money on what I think the map will look like in two weeks, this is how I see it. I think this map will likely also be my prediction in 2 weeks. I think the map is pretty much set at this with Biden potentially flipping FL more likely than Trump flipping AZ. Despite only winning the EV by 40 in this, I think he scores a huge PV victory over Trump. I expect a 7% PV lead for Biden. Something like 52% Biden, 45% Trump, 1.5% Libertarian. 0.75% Green. and the rest to various write-ins and etc. Overall, I find it very hard to see how Trump wins unless something drastic or remarkable occurs within 2 weeks. I don't expect that to happen. I don't expect polls to be as off as 2016 or worse. They have to be as worse or more for Trump to win. Unlikely. :

4W4dZ.png

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39 minutes ago, superezione said:

In the same vein that watching the world end would be fun, sure.

 

17 minutes ago, Zenobiyl said:

Exactly

The world is not going to "end," because of this election. That's ridiculous, off-the-wall, self-indulgent, and paranoid delusional hyperbole. The world survived the results of the March, 1933 Reichstag Election in Germany, and the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election will, frankly, all nonsensical media-based monster-making aside, be very small potatoes in it's consequences by comparison. Do people even rationally view situations and ideals in a realistic sense anymore, or has prime time adult cartoon logic grasped the great majority. Besides, the world will LONG outlive the human species, as much as our collective ego is insulted by the concept. Here is a scientific analysis of what it will look like (but still existing) in 2.25 billion years.

 

 

Earth in 2.25 billion years.jpg

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2 hours ago, Patine said:

 

The world is not going to "end," because of this election. That's ridiculous, off-the-wall, self-indulgent, and paranoid delusional hyperbole. The world survived the results of the March, 1933 Reichstag Election in Germany, and the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election will, frankly, all nonsensical media-based monster-making aside, be very small potatoes in it's consequences by comparison. Do people even rationally view situations and ideals in a realistic sense anymore, or has prime time adult cartoon logic grasped the great majority. Besides, the world will LONG outlive the human species, as much as our collective ego is insulted by the concept. Here is a scientific analysis of what it will look like (but still existing) in 2.25 billion years.

 

 

Earth in 2.25 billion years.jpg

This is coming from @Patine 😳

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7 hours ago, Patine said:

Besides, the world will LONG outlive the human species, as much as our collective ego is insulted by the concept. Here is a scientific analysis of what it will look like (but still existing) in 2.25 billion years.

 

 

Earth in 2.25 billion years.jpg

Oh, that'd be a relief in comparison.

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5 hours ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

This is coming from @Patine 😳

When was I predicting the world ending? Getting steadily shittier, yes. Once great civilizations sliding into their demise (which is not the same thing), yes.  But not the world ending. I'm not @Wiw.

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13 hours ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

No, house is controlled by Democrats so they'd pick Biden.

The voting for President done by the House is done by delegations, of which Republicans control more. So Trump would actually win, unless faithless electors sway the election before it goes to the House.

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5 minutes ago, jnewt said:

The voting for President done by the House is done by delegations, of which Republicans control more. So Trump would actually win, unless faithless electors sway the election before it goes to the House.

Assuming republicans maintain their lead in the congressional and senatorial elections.

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16 minutes ago, Zenobiyl said:

Assuming republicans maintain their lead in the congressional and senatorial elections.

That wouldn't matter, as it's the outgoing House and Senate, not the newly elected one. :(

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22 minutes ago, jnewt said:

The voting for President done by the House is done by delegations, of which Republicans control more. So Trump would actually win, unless faithless electors sway the election before it goes to the House.

I didn't know that. Thanks.

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I just ran a little over 100 simulations on 270towin.

I unfortunately didn't take any screenshots, but the biggest blowout was Trump with only 77 electoral votes, to Biden's 459.  

Biggest blowout in the other direction was Trump with 361 to Biden's 175.

Average result was Biden 347, Trump 191.

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23 minutes ago, Patine said:

That wouldn't matter, as it's the outgoing House and Senate, not the newly elected one. :(

Actually it's the incoming delegations. That's why Congressional terms begin before Presidential terms.

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34 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

My ceiling for Trump:
image.png.7d8353b18f6b2c7cb84d3ea86a290718.png

 

My actual prediction right now:
image.png.0ebd8becc9a50aff67df60fdc29bcfb8.png
 

We have the same prediction except I think there will be a blue Nevada and Pennsylvania.

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