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14 Days Left - United States Map with the Winners of every state


Entrecampos
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I will make a new topic here everyday from now to the election day, with the objective of updating my national state prediction, I will put the base map now, with the solidstates as predicted by RCP.

map.png

Like most of you know, I developed an ELO pollsters rating that in this moment can predict the winners of 2016 with only pre-electoral information, in difficult states like Michigan, Penssylvania, Nevada and Wisconsin (all right, I tested today). The model is very reactive, and can show big shifts in his forecast from today for tomorrow, anyway, by the day of the election, I believe that will be extremely precise. Works better in states where there are more polls, and worse in states with less, so I will skip solid states by now. I will add state by state, next days will be more easy, because 95% is made for tomorrow. First state will be Nevada...

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I finished the first part, polls analysis, now I need to put it into Counties mode, after I will have credible results.
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Arizona 
Biden 49.6% (+1.6) Trump 48.0%

Florida 
Trump 48.6% (+1.4) Biden 47.2%  

Georgia 
Biden 49.1% (+2.4)  Trump 46.7%

Iowa
Biden 50.9%(+4.1) Trump 46.8% 

Minnesota
Biden 50.3% (+5.2) Trump 45.1% 

Michigan
Biden 49.7% (+4.4) Trump 45.3%

Nevada 
Biden 47.0% (+0.8) Trump 46.2%

North Carolina
Biden 49.3% (+0.6) Trump 48.7% 

Ohio
Trump 49.0% (+5.2) Biden 43.8%

Pennsylvania
Biden 50.0% (+4.0) Trump 46.0%

Texas
Trump 51.3% (+7.0) Biden 44.3%

Wisconsin
Biden 50.9% (+5.5) Trump 45.4%

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2 hours ago, Entrecampos said:

I finished the first part, polls analysis, now I need to put it into Counties mode, after I will have credible results.
Nenhuma descrição disponível.

Arizona 
Biden 49.6% (+1.6) Trump 48.0%

Florida 
Trump 48.6% (+1.4) Biden 47.2%  

Georgia 
Biden 49.1% (+2.4)  Trump 46.7%

Iowa
Biden 50.9%(+4.1) Trump 46.8% 

Minnesota
Biden 50.3% (+5.2) Trump 45.1% 

Michigan
Biden 49.7% (+4.4) Trump 45.3%

Nevada 
Biden 47.0% (+0.8) Trump 46.2%

North Carolina
Biden 49.3% (+0.6) Trump 48.7% 

Ohio
Trump 49.0% (+5.2) Biden 43.8%

Pennsylvania
Biden 50.0% (+4.0) Trump 46.0%

Texas
Trump 51.3% (+7.0) Biden 44.3%

Wisconsin
Biden 50.9% (+5.5) Trump 45.4%

Many of these are counter to historical trends. It's hard to image Biden winning NC and GA, but not FL. IA is a surprise too but it's more volatile in presidential elections in the 21st century. Of the gray states, I expect Biden to win NV. The rest will likely go Trump. 

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I finished the testing of the polls model in USA 2016. The historical+county part isnt ready, this is why counters some historical trends.

Only 3 mistaken states, New Mexico, New Hampshire and North Carolina, all Rust Belt well predicted (0.4% from falling Virginia and Wisconsin too). I think the polls model is ready and in a good state.

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I will update the 2020 map everyday, but today I will review only 2 states (Arizona and Pennsylvania), because lack of time. Finally I have a stable model for 2020 forecasting (less volatile) , so from now to the future, the changes will be much smaller (in this 2 states at least, the others will receive big shifts because the stable model isnt already put).

Arizona Biden 49.4% (+4.1) Trump 45.3
Pennsylvania Biden 50.7% (+5.4) Trump 45.3% 

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