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State of the Race: 14 Days Left


14 Day Poll  

29 members have voted

  1. 1. See the Data in the First Post: Who do you think wins if the election were today?

  2. 2. Biden is now at his all-time high in the national poll +11.8 vs Trump with only 2 weeks left. What best reflect your thoughts on this?

    • Biden is going to win in a landslide.
    • I'm not sure if it will hold, but it makes me feel as if it is unlikely Trump will be reelected.
    • National polls aren't very important, but I'm sure some of that has to apply to battleground states. I'd be worried if I were Trump.
    • National polls mean nothing, and nothing about them should be reflected upon the battleground states, which are the only polls that matter.
    • This is just fake news propaganda to discourage Trump voters from voting.
      0
    • Other (mention below)
  3. 3. Nate Silver mentions 8 things to do to stay sane will thinking about the election with only 2 weeks left. Which of the following are you doing?

    • Keep the context of the COVID-19 pandemic in mind.
    • Don’t assume the race is in the bag for Biden.
    • But also don’t buy the narrative that “polling is broken.”
    • Don’t get too obsessed with comparisons to 2016.
    • Don’t pay much attention to individual polls; wait for polling averages to move.
    • Beware talk of “October Surprises.” They’re usually overhyped.
    • Don’t read too much into the campaigns’ behavior.
    • Don’t get carried away with early voting data.
    • I'm not doing any of these.
  4. 4. Which state that haven't flipped parties in a presidential election in the 21st century do you think will flip in this election?

  5. 5. Which of the following do you think is most likely to happen if Trump loses reelection by over 300 EV? [Check all that apply]

    • He will concede the election to Biden by calling him, give a concession rally to his supporters---standard unofficial protocol.
    • Having accepted his defeat, he will also help Biden during the transition period --- standard unofficial protocol.
    • He will try to leave on a good note by doing some good during the lame duck period that even independent and some Democrats approve of.
    • He will not concede the election to Biden via phone call if he loses.
    • He will not give a concession rally to his followers if he loses.
    • He will either claim victory or call the election fake or rigged, refusing to accept the results.
    • He will refuse to cooperate with President-Elect Biden during the transition period.
    • He will likely go haywire if he loses, issuing all sorts of orders that are more geared at sabotaging Biden's presidency in advance than geared to deal with Covid or other important issues.
    • Whatever it is, it will be the worst behavior and actions that NeverTrumpers have ever seen from Trump.
    • Whatever it is, it will probably actually be the most presidential Trump has ever been.
    • I don't expect any significant change in Trump.
    • I expect that he sort of just gives up being president during this period, and sets his eye on what he's going to do next, using the presidency to promote that.
    • He will retaliate by firing a lot of people.
    • He will resign and let Pence handle being a "lame duck"
      0
    • He will start wearing dresses, makeup, ribbons, etc. and will be seen skipping and frolicking in the Rose Garden. This will consume the news for the entire Lame Duck period. Trump will never explain what happens to him.
    • Something else (mention below)


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20 minutes ago, Wiw said:

Well technically that's occult, so no.

It's still fiction. Fiction covers all written prose, or comic or graphic novel format, or television production, movie, or short, or computer entertainment, and other things besides, created through the author's imagination, or significant embellishment or dramatization of factual events, and not are not academic works, personal accounts, statistical, educational, even opinionated texts, and other works based on fact, in large part if not in whole. What you're referring to are genres of fiction.

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23 hours ago, admin_270 said:

!

Ironically, your exclamation point convinced me to reconsider.    Haha.

I'd run a bunch of simulations on 270towin, and the average outcome was a pro-Biden margin of 156 electoral votes.  Hence, my bet.

But when I took a closer look, I realized that while it was the average, it was not the most frequent outcome.  The actual most frequent outcome (compared to the other possible outcome ranges) was a Biden blowout.  

So, I switched my bet.

If Biden wins by a margin of more than 280 electoral votes, I'll win almost $800.

It's something that happened 27% of the time in the simulation, with a payout of approximately 8-1.  Those are great odds.  And if it misses, I can afford to lose the cash.  Plus, it frees me from hoping that Trump has a decent showing so that I don't lose the bet by underestimating Biden's outcome. ;c)

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10 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

Ironically, your exclamation point convinced me to reconsider.    Haha.

I'd run a bunch of simulations on 270towin, and the average outcome was a pro-Biden margin of 156 electoral votes.  Hence, my bet.

But when I took a closer look, I realized that while it was the average, it was not the most frequent outcome.  The actual most frequent outcome (compared to the other possible outcome ranges) was a Biden blowout.  

So, I switched my bet.

If Biden wins by a margin of more than 280 electoral votes, I'll win almost $800.

It's something that happened 27% of the time in the simulation, with a payout of approximately 8-1.  Those are great odds.  And if it misses, I can afford to lose the cash.  Plus, it frees me from hoping that Trump has a decent showing so that I don't lose the bet by underestimating Biden's outcome. ;c)

But what makes the simulation valid?

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Just now, Mark_W said:

But what makes the simulation valid?

What makes any prediction valid?  They've input the data from various surveys, and also the possibility that it's all wrong.  I saw Biden blowouts and the occasional Trump blowout, and much closer races as well (one where Trump won by 2 electoral votes).  

For Biden to win by 280+, he'll have to get Florida, NC, Georgia, Texas, Ohio, and others to swing significantly his way.  Is it a guarantee that those things will happen?  Absolutely not.  But do I think there's a better than 1 in 8 chance of a pro-Biden blowout?  I do.

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