Jump to content
270soft Forum

State of the Race: 14 Days Left


14 Day Poll  

29 members have voted

  1. 1. See the Data in the First Post: Who do you think wins if the election were today?

  2. 2. Biden is now at his all-time high in the national poll +11.8 vs Trump with only 2 weeks left. What best reflect your thoughts on this?

    • Biden is going to win in a landslide.
    • I'm not sure if it will hold, but it makes me feel as if it is unlikely Trump will be reelected.
    • National polls aren't very important, but I'm sure some of that has to apply to battleground states. I'd be worried if I were Trump.
    • National polls mean nothing, and nothing about them should be reflected upon the battleground states, which are the only polls that matter.
    • This is just fake news propaganda to discourage Trump voters from voting.
      0
    • Other (mention below)
  3. 3. Nate Silver mentions 8 things to do to stay sane will thinking about the election with only 2 weeks left. Which of the following are you doing?

    • Keep the context of the COVID-19 pandemic in mind.
    • Don’t assume the race is in the bag for Biden.
    • But also don’t buy the narrative that “polling is broken.”
    • Don’t get too obsessed with comparisons to 2016.
    • Don’t pay much attention to individual polls; wait for polling averages to move.
    • Beware talk of “October Surprises.” They’re usually overhyped.
    • Don’t read too much into the campaigns’ behavior.
    • Don’t get carried away with early voting data.
    • I'm not doing any of these.
  4. 4. Which state that haven't flipped parties in a presidential election in the 21st century do you think will flip in this election?

  5. 5. Which of the following do you think is most likely to happen if Trump loses reelection by over 300 EV? [Check all that apply]

    • He will concede the election to Biden by calling him, give a concession rally to his supporters---standard unofficial protocol.
    • Having accepted his defeat, he will also help Biden during the transition period --- standard unofficial protocol.
    • He will try to leave on a good note by doing some good during the lame duck period that even independent and some Democrats approve of.
    • He will not concede the election to Biden via phone call if he loses.
    • He will not give a concession rally to his followers if he loses.
    • He will either claim victory or call the election fake or rigged, refusing to accept the results.
    • He will refuse to cooperate with President-Elect Biden during the transition period.
    • He will likely go haywire if he loses, issuing all sorts of orders that are more geared at sabotaging Biden's presidency in advance than geared to deal with Covid or other important issues.
    • Whatever it is, it will be the worst behavior and actions that NeverTrumpers have ever seen from Trump.
    • Whatever it is, it will probably actually be the most presidential Trump has ever been.
    • I don't expect any significant change in Trump.
    • I expect that he sort of just gives up being president during this period, and sets his eye on what he's going to do next, using the presidency to promote that.
    • He will retaliate by firing a lot of people.
    • He will resign and let Pence handle being a "lame duck"
      0
    • He will start wearing dresses, makeup, ribbons, etc. and will be seen skipping and frolicking in the Rose Garden. This will consume the news for the entire Lame Duck period. Trump will never explain what happens to him.
    • Something else (mention below)


Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, admin_270 said:

"8 things to do to stay sane will thinking about the election with only 2 weeks left"

Bet against your favoured candidate. Bet a significant amount. That way, either you're happy your candidate won or you get a bunch of extra money.

I do this all the time. Even if I lose $200 I see it as a win-win.

  • Upvote 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 140
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

And these are powers you’re comfortable leaving unchecked, to grow and grow and grow? You don’t like American intervention, fine.  But the opposite of American intervention is not no intervention

Trump: People are tired of hearing from "Fauci and all these idiots" https://www.wane.com/news/trump-people-are-tired-of-hearing-fauci-and-all-these-idiots/ I apologize that I trust a doctor

It reminds of when people like Capone would donate to orphanages and other charities. They have an incentive to make themselves look as good as they can, in the limited areas where they'll allow it. 

Posted Images

Hill-HarrisX poll taken Aug. 29-31. 66% of registered voters say likely people not truthful when responding to political surveys.

What's interesting to me is partisan breakdown. 70% of Reps say so, only 60% Dems.

https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/515198-poll-66-percent-say-likely-a-significant-number-of-people-lie

Also see

https://www.cloudresearch.com/resources/blog/election-2020-poll-respondent-honesty/

Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Hill-HarrisX poll taken Aug. 29-31. 66% of registered voters say likely people not truthful when responding to political surveys.

What's interesting to me is partisan breakdown. 70% of Reps say so, only 60% Dems.

https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/515198-poll-66-percent-say-likely-a-significant-number-of-people-lie

Also see

https://www.cloudresearch.com/resources/blog/election-2020-poll-respondent-honesty/

10% isn't actually that much, imo. I think it's obvious a lot of people will think that "some people" aren't truthful when responding to political surveys.

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

10% isn't actually that much, imo. I think it's obvious a lot of people will think that "some people" aren't truthful when responding to political surveys.

There's a concept called "group wisdom", where the group average usually ends up being closer than 90% of the groups estimates. For example, in guessing how many gumballs there are in a gumball machine, people can have all kinds of guesses, but the group average will usually be closer than most of their guesses.

However it only works if people are answering truthfully and to the best of their ability, so who knows.

  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Hill-HarrisX poll taken Aug. 29-31. 66% of registered voters say likely people not truthful when responding to political surveys.

What's interesting to me is partisan breakdown. 70% of Reps say so, only 60% Dems.

https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/515198-poll-66-percent-say-likely-a-significant-number-of-people-lie

Also see

https://www.cloudresearch.com/resources/blog/election-2020-poll-respondent-honesty/

Am I parsing this correctly that 66% of people think that "other" people are liars?  This isn't 66% admitting that they themselves lied, correct?  In that case...they're just guessing about people they haven't met.

This reminds me of the survey that indicated that, on average, people believe they are smarter than most other people.  Even though, on average, they can't be.

Link to post
Share on other sites

@vcczar

Discussed Glenn Beck as highest profile conservative I could think of offhand who didn't vote Trump in 2016, says he is going to in 2020.

Add Ben Shapiro to the list. He gives 3 reasons:

1. Shapiro simply wrong about Trump on policy.

2. Wasn't really wrong about Trump on character, but damage already done and won't help if don't vote for him this time.

3. Democrats have lost their 'fucking minds'.

I think this is a trend among a small but significant % of conservatives.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Actinguy said:

Who exactly is he supposed to be convincing right now?  What is he supposed to be doing that he hasn’t already done?

Its hard to believe there’s a lot of people who like Biden and Trump equally.  I suppose it’s possible that there’s a set of people who dislike Biden and Trump equally...but how many of them are going to attend a rally?

I don't think it's about convincing anymore. I think it's more about energizing a few more people that might decide between voting for Biden or not voting and not because they dislike Biden. It helps when a candidate is in someone's town, especially a small town. "Hey, this candidate cares enough about us to come here." Sort of thing. I'm sure doing that will help push some apathetic voters. Considering how close the margins were last time, every effort helps.

Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

@vcczar

Discussed Glenn Beck as highest profile conservative I could think of offhand who didn't vote Trump in 2016, says he is going to in 2020.

Add Ben Shapiro to the list. He gives 3 reasons:

1. Shapiro simply wrong about Trump on policy.

2. Wasn't really wrong about Trump on character, but damage already done and won't help if don't vote for him this time.

3. Democrats have lost their 'fucking minds'.

I think this is a trend among a small but significant % of conservatives.

 

#3 is his least compelling point. It's almost like he couldn't come up with a good specific 3rd reason. His first two reasons are reasonable, even if I don't agree with them. 

  • Upvote 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, vcczar said:

#3 is his least compelling point.

Spoken like a Democrat. 😀

I think Beck and Shapiro to some degree are representative of a sort of voter - the conservative who didn't vote or voted 3rd party in 2016 because they thought Trump wouldn't actually do what he was saying he would do. My guess is these voters - like Shapiro and Beck - by and large plan to vote Trump in 2020.

Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

@vcczar

Discussed Glenn Beck as highest profile conservative I could think of offhand who didn't vote Trump in 2016, says he is going to in 2020.

Add Ben Shapiro to the list. He gives 3 reasons:

1. Shapiro simply wrong about Trump on policy.

2. Wasn't really wrong about Trump on character, but damage already done and won't help if don't vote for him this time.

3. Democrats have lost their 'fucking minds'.

I think this is a trend among a small but significant % of conservatives.

 

You forgot about George W Bush?  He was President of the United States for a little while.  ;c)

Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Spoken like a Democrat. 😀

I think Beck and Shapiro to some degree are representative of a sort of voter - the conservative who didn't vote or voted 3rd party in 2016 because they thought Trump wouldn't actually do what he was saying he would do. My guess is these voters - like Shapiro and Beck - by and large plan to vote Trump in 2020.

Well, it's not like either of us belong to either major U.S. Party, or any U.S. Party, or are legally allowed to be members, or even to legally give campaign donations. During the 2016 election campaign, it would have technically illegal for you to go south of the border and buy a MAGA cap.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, admin_270 said:

W. said he wouldn't vote Trump in 2016 and has now said he will in 2020?

I thought you were saying Shapiro was the most notable conservative you could think of who didn’t vote for Trump in 2016.  And then, surprise ending!, now Shapiro is!

 

To which I responded with three much more prominent Republicans who have remained anti Trump and will not be voting for him in 2020.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Actinguy said:

I thought you were saying Shapiro was the most notable conservative you could think of who didn’t vote for Trump in 2016.  And then, surprise ending!, now Shapiro is!

 

To which I responded with three much more prominent Republicans who have remained anti Trump and will not be voting for him in 2020.

No, Beck was the most notable conservative off-hand who went No 2016 -> Yes 2020. Add Shapiro to list as another notable one who is similar to Beck.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't believe W. has said which way he'll vote in 2020, but I would be surprised if he voted for Trump. Trump has said of the signature policy of the W. Bush-Colin Powell era - the Iraq War - that it was "the worst mistake, the most costly mistake in the history of our country." He has been saying this sort of thing since 2015.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/09/16/trump_iraq_war_was_the_worst_mistake_the_mostly_costly_mistake_in_the_history_of_our_country.html#!

Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

I don't believe W. has said which way he'll vote in 2020, but I would be surprised if he voted for Trump. Trump has said of the signature policy of the W. Bush-Colin Powell era - the Iraq War - that it was "the worst mistake, the most costly mistake in the history of our country." He has been saying this sort of thing since 2015.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/09/16/trump_iraq_war_was_the_worst_mistake_the_mostly_costly_mistake_in_the_history_of_our_country.html#!

Sure.  He lashes out at people who don’t like him.  That’s not new.  2016, he was still attacking Rosie O’Donnell, who most people had forgotten ever existed by that point.

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Trump's 2015-6 campaign.

1. Drain the swamp.

2. Bring back manufacturing jobs, investment, and economy.

3. Reduce illegal immigration.

4. No more costly wars.

5. Conservative Justices on Supreme Court.

The 'swamp," has become worse since Trump was inaugurated, the second was short-lived and made a lot of enemies economically - both foreign and domestic - because of his sloppy and bull-headed trade wars - reducing "illegal immigration," was a red herring for reducing immigration, period, from certain select countries and ignoring it from others, based on racist and xenophobic stereotype, I would give him number, save for his Administration twice trying to hoodwink a casus belli for a war with Iran, "Tonkin Bay-style," but in both cases horribly clumsily and transparently, and number 5 is a promise not worth keeping and worthy of excoriation - I've made my views how choosing Supreme Court justices for ideological reasons undermines the Supreme Court, threatens judicial independence, and potentially makes every ruling invalid on the grounds of "bias from the bench."

  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

The fall of the United States Republic is near.

 

American Empire soon.

Probably not, except maybe as a short-lived, last-gasp stage. The signs of civilization decline are too deep, too far-gone, and probably irreversible

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...