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State of the Race: 14 Days Left


14 Day Poll  

29 members have voted

  1. 1. See the Data in the First Post: Who do you think wins if the election were today?

  2. 2. Biden is now at his all-time high in the national poll +11.8 vs Trump with only 2 weeks left. What best reflect your thoughts on this?

    • Biden is going to win in a landslide.
    • I'm not sure if it will hold, but it makes me feel as if it is unlikely Trump will be reelected.
    • National polls aren't very important, but I'm sure some of that has to apply to battleground states. I'd be worried if I were Trump.
    • National polls mean nothing, and nothing about them should be reflected upon the battleground states, which are the only polls that matter.
    • This is just fake news propaganda to discourage Trump voters from voting.
      0
    • Other (mention below)
  3. 3. Nate Silver mentions 8 things to do to stay sane will thinking about the election with only 2 weeks left. Which of the following are you doing?

    • Keep the context of the COVID-19 pandemic in mind.
    • Don’t assume the race is in the bag for Biden.
    • But also don’t buy the narrative that “polling is broken.”
    • Don’t get too obsessed with comparisons to 2016.
    • Don’t pay much attention to individual polls; wait for polling averages to move.
    • Beware talk of “October Surprises.” They’re usually overhyped.
    • Don’t read too much into the campaigns’ behavior.
    • Don’t get carried away with early voting data.
    • I'm not doing any of these.
  4. 4. Which state that haven't flipped parties in a presidential election in the 21st century do you think will flip in this election?

  5. 5. Which of the following do you think is most likely to happen if Trump loses reelection by over 300 EV? [Check all that apply]

    • He will concede the election to Biden by calling him, give a concession rally to his supporters---standard unofficial protocol.
    • Having accepted his defeat, he will also help Biden during the transition period --- standard unofficial protocol.
    • He will try to leave on a good note by doing some good during the lame duck period that even independent and some Democrats approve of.
    • He will not concede the election to Biden via phone call if he loses.
    • He will not give a concession rally to his followers if he loses.
    • He will either claim victory or call the election fake or rigged, refusing to accept the results.
    • He will refuse to cooperate with President-Elect Biden during the transition period.
    • He will likely go haywire if he loses, issuing all sorts of orders that are more geared at sabotaging Biden's presidency in advance than geared to deal with Covid or other important issues.
    • Whatever it is, it will be the worst behavior and actions that NeverTrumpers have ever seen from Trump.
    • Whatever it is, it will probably actually be the most presidential Trump has ever been.
    • I don't expect any significant change in Trump.
    • I expect that he sort of just gives up being president during this period, and sets his eye on what he's going to do next, using the presidency to promote that.
    • He will retaliate by firing a lot of people.
    • He will resign and let Pence handle being a "lame duck"
      0
    • He will start wearing dresses, makeup, ribbons, etc. and will be seen skipping and frolicking in the Rose Garden. This will consume the news for the entire Lame Duck period. Trump will never explain what happens to him.
    • Something else (mention below)


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1 hour ago, Defiant said:

Sounds like me shortly before the first debate (focus on increasing issue familiarity and debate prep and regaining energy).  Given that he's in the lead and the final debate is the last (planned) high profile event before Election Day, the strategy makes sense - don't want to mess up the debate.

Trump schedule by comparison is AZ, NV today. PA tomorrow. NC Wednesday.

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It reminds of when people like Capone would donate to orphanages and other charities. They have an incentive to make themselves look as good as they can, in the limited areas where they'll allow it. 

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10 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Trump schedule by comparison is AZ, NV today. PA tomorrow. NC Wednesday.

Let's hope his debate prep is as light as it was last time too ;)

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2 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

Let's hope his debate prep is as light as it was last time too ;)

An incumbent underperforming in the first debate isn't surprising to me. The challenger has just gone through a bunch of debates, usually. Obama-Romney in 2012 is a classic example.

Having said that, I am sure Trump is preparing less than Biden.

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Just now, admin_270 said:

An incumbent underperforming in the first debate in the first debate isn't surprising to me. The challenger has just gone through a bunch of debates, usually. Obama-Romney in 2012 is a classic example.

Having said that, I am sure Trump is preparing less than Biden.

An extra wrench, too, is there was no real second debate. Not sure how that will impact either candidate. My guess is little, but who knows. By the time Thursday comes around, it'll have been almost three weeks since the last debate.

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44 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Trump schedule by comparison is AZ, NV today. PA tomorrow. NC Wednesday.

Yeah, I wish Biden was doing more of this. Didn't bother me initially but with only two weeks left, he should really take any chances, even if I think he's got a 99% chance of winning.

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29 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Yeah, I wish Biden was doing more of this. Didn't bother me initially but with only two weeks left, he should really take any chances, even if I think he's got a 99% chance of winning.

Are you doing any betting on the election result, BTW?

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1 minute ago, admin_270 said:

Are you doing any betting on the election result, BTW?

I probably should, but betting isn’t fun when the odds are strongly with you. 
 

What’s the best betting website for politics?

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Just now, admin_270 said:

"8 things to do to stay sane will thinking about the election with only 2 weeks left"

Bet against your favoured candidate. Bet a significant amount. That way, either you're happy your candidate won or you get a bunch of extra money.

I’m so sure Trump is losing that it’s basically guaranteed throwing away money. 

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17 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Latest Gallup Party Affiliation poll (late Sep.) R+1. This point in 2016 cycle D+5.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/Party-Affiliation.aspx

Interesting way to say I+14.

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1 hour ago, vcczar said:

Yeah, I wish Biden was doing more of this. Didn't bother me initially but with only two weeks left, he should really take any chances, even if I think he's got a 99% chance of winning.

Who exactly is he supposed to be convincing right now?  What is he supposed to be doing that he hasn’t already done?

Its hard to believe there’s a lot of people who like Biden and Trump equally.  I suppose it’s possible that there’s a set of people who dislike Biden and Trump equally...but how many of them are going to attend a rally?

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1 hour ago, admin_270 said:

"8 things to do to stay sane will thinking about the election with only 2 weeks left"

Bet against your favoured candidate. Bet a significant amount. That way, either you're happy your candidate won or you get a bunch of extra money.

There is no amount of money that would make me happy that Trump won.  I have no desire to make money off of a terrible thing happening.

1 hour ago, vcczar said:

I probably should, but betting isn’t fun when the odds are strongly with you. 
 

What’s the best betting website for politics?

 

1 hour ago, admin_270 said:

No idea - I briefly looked around awhile ago and it didn't seem easy for a Canadian to invest. @Actinguy knows more, I'm sure.

I use PredictIt.  It can only have x number of people in a single bet for legal reasons (they claim to be a research site conducting a study, which is why it’s legal in the US to bet there), so the straight up Biden vs Trump is already maxed out.  You could bet on other things though, such as what the margin of electoral votes will be or senate/governor/notable house races, etc.

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1 minute ago, admin_270 said:

Not to make someone happy - it's a consolation prize. If you're going to be miserable, might as well have some extra money.

Blood money.  I don’t want it.

Ive consistently predicted on here that Trump will win because Trump will cheat.

But my money is literally on Biden winning by a margin of 150-209 electoral votes, because I have no desire to profit off of Trump stealing another election.

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