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State of the Race: 14 Days Left


14 Day Poll  

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  1. 1. See the Data in the First Post: Who do you think wins if the election were today?

  2. 2. Biden is now at his all-time high in the national poll +11.8 vs Trump with only 2 weeks left. What best reflect your thoughts on this?

    • Biden is going to win in a landslide.
    • I'm not sure if it will hold, but it makes me feel as if it is unlikely Trump will be reelected.
    • National polls aren't very important, but I'm sure some of that has to apply to battleground states. I'd be worried if I were Trump.
    • National polls mean nothing, and nothing about them should be reflected upon the battleground states, which are the only polls that matter.
    • This is just fake news propaganda to discourage Trump voters from voting.
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    • Other (mention below)
  3. 3. Nate Silver mentions 8 things to do to stay sane will thinking about the election with only 2 weeks left. Which of the following are you doing?

    • Keep the context of the COVID-19 pandemic in mind.
    • Don’t assume the race is in the bag for Biden.
    • But also don’t buy the narrative that “polling is broken.”
    • Don’t get too obsessed with comparisons to 2016.
    • Don’t pay much attention to individual polls; wait for polling averages to move.
    • Beware talk of “October Surprises.” They’re usually overhyped.
    • Don’t read too much into the campaigns’ behavior.
    • Don’t get carried away with early voting data.
    • I'm not doing any of these.
  4. 4. Which state that haven't flipped parties in a presidential election in the 21st century do you think will flip in this election?

  5. 5. Which of the following do you think is most likely to happen if Trump loses reelection by over 300 EV? [Check all that apply]

    • He will concede the election to Biden by calling him, give a concession rally to his supporters---standard unofficial protocol.
    • Having accepted his defeat, he will also help Biden during the transition period --- standard unofficial protocol.
    • He will try to leave on a good note by doing some good during the lame duck period that even independent and some Democrats approve of.
    • He will not concede the election to Biden via phone call if he loses.
    • He will not give a concession rally to his followers if he loses.
    • He will either claim victory or call the election fake or rigged, refusing to accept the results.
    • He will refuse to cooperate with President-Elect Biden during the transition period.
    • He will likely go haywire if he loses, issuing all sorts of orders that are more geared at sabotaging Biden's presidency in advance than geared to deal with Covid or other important issues.
    • Whatever it is, it will be the worst behavior and actions that NeverTrumpers have ever seen from Trump.
    • Whatever it is, it will probably actually be the most presidential Trump has ever been.
    • I don't expect any significant change in Trump.
    • I expect that he sort of just gives up being president during this period, and sets his eye on what he's going to do next, using the presidency to promote that.
    • He will retaliate by firing a lot of people.
    • He will resign and let Pence handle being a "lame duck"
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    • He will start wearing dresses, makeup, ribbons, etc. and will be seen skipping and frolicking in the Rose Garden. This will consume the news for the entire Lame Duck period. Trump will never explain what happens to him.
    • Something else (mention below)


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As usual, Blue trends for Biden and Red trends for Trump.

  • With basically two weeks left, Biden's national margin versus Trump is at an all-time high on average -- +11.8
  • No significant movement in the state polls, although Trump moving OH by 0.3 is the biggest shift. 
  • No changes to the map. 

Categories 14 Days Left
Gen Avg Biden 10.8 (+0.2)
AK avg Trump 4.5 (-0.1)
AZ avg Biden 3.8 (0)
FL avg Biden 3.9 (-0.2)
GA avg Biden 1.3 (+0.1)
IA avg Biden 0.2 (0)
MI Avg Biden 8.4 (+0.6)
MN avg Biden 9.0 (+0.1)
MO avg Trump 5.6 (-0.1)
MT avg Trump 8.7 (-0.1)
NV avg Biden 6.8 (+0.1)
NH Avg Biden 10.7 (+0.8)
NC avg Biden 3.2 (+0.1)
OH avg Trump 0.4 (-0.3)
PA Avg Biden 7.1 (+0.1)
SC avg Trump 5.4 (0)
TX avg Trump 1.3 (-0.1)
WI Avg Biden 7.1 (+0.1)
Trump Approval 42.8 (-0.1)
Trump Disapproval 54.2 (+0.1)
Favorability Biden 18.2 (0)
Direction of the Country -31.5 (6.2)
Generic Ballot Dem 6.6 (0)
Betting Markets Biden 64.6 (+0.3)
Clinton vs. Trump 2016 GE  
Biden vs Clinton GE Polls  

EB2mB.png

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And these are powers you’re comfortable leaving unchecked, to grow and grow and grow? You don’t like American intervention, fine.  But the opposite of American intervention is not no intervention

Trump: People are tired of hearing from "Fauci and all these idiots" https://www.wane.com/news/trump-people-are-tired-of-hearing-fauci-and-all-these-idiots/ I apologize that I trust a doctor

It reminds of when people like Capone would donate to orphanages and other charities. They have an incentive to make themselves look as good as they can, in the limited areas where they'll allow it. 

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Other: He will never leave of his own accord.  

 

1 hour ago, Wiw said:

I'm still afraid he would try to fire nukes if he felt he was going to lose.

He has no power in a nuclear apocalypse.  Trump must have his power.  He retains his power by denying the outcome of the election, not by literally killing everyone including himself.

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2. I believe polls are inaccurate but wouldn't label it as ''fake news propaganda''.

5. I don't think it will happen but I'd hope for "He will resign and let Pence handle being a "lame duck"''.

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Trump: People are tired of hearing from "Fauci and all these idiots"

https://www.wane.com/news/trump-people-are-tired-of-hearing-fauci-and-all-these-idiots/

I apologize that I trust a doctor who's served as the head of a major medical governmental agency for 36 years. Not exactly a great message electorally-speaking, as 68% of Americans trust Fauci on the virus.

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3) Sanity is overrated. ;)

(I'm probably doing a little of each of the things for entertainment purposes, even though I shouldn't, but I'm also taking them with plenty of pinches of salt).

5) I don't know what Trump will do if he loses, but no matter what, someone in the media will declare that "today was the day Trump finally became President." ;)

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Sounds like me shortly before the first debate (focus on increasing issue familiarity and debate prep and regaining energy).  Given that he's in the lead and the final debate is the last (planned) high profile event before Election Day, the strategy makes sense - don't want to mess up the debate.

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1 minute ago, Defiant said:

Sounds like me shortly before the first debate (focus on increasing issue familiarity and debate prep and regaining energy).  Given that he's in the lead and the final debate is the last (planned) high profile event before Election Day, the strategy makes sense - don't want to mess up the debate.

Yes, might be right strategy.

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55 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

No public Biden events on schedule until Th. (debate). 🤷‍♂️

I just saw on Twitter than Trump's campaign has cancelled all ads and ad buys in WI for some reason. 

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1 minute ago, vcczar said:

I just saw on Twitter than Trump's campaign has cancelled all ads and ad buys in WI for some reason. 

Where? Not according to this

"On a campaign call, Bill Stepien announces Trump campaign and RNC ad buy over final two weeks is $55 million. RNC is paying through coordinated campaign in AZ, IA, MI, NC, WI, he says. Trump is paying for ads in AZ, FL, GA, ME-2, MI, NC, NV, OH, PA, WI, he says."

https://twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/1318230897372631042?s=20

So that's (ranked roughly from R to L) OH, GA, AZ, IA, NC, FL, PA, WI, MI, ME-2, NV. Nothing here surprising to me.

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26 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Where? Not according to this

"On a campaign call, Bill Stepien announces Trump campaign and RNC ad buy over final two weeks is $55 million. RNC is paying through coordinated campaign in AZ, IA, MI, NC, WI, he says. Trump is paying for ads in AZ, FL, GA, ME-2, MI, NC, NV, OH, PA, WI, he says."

https://twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/1318230897372631042?s=20

So that's (ranked roughly from R to L) OH, GA, AZ, IA, NC, FL, PA, WI, MI, ME-2, NV. Nothing here surprising to me.

I'm trying to find it again. Not sure how to search for a Twitter comment when I don't remember who typed it. Regardless, it was posted before the post you Tweeted so it might be old news. Maybe they cancelled it before issuing new orders or something. I'll keep looking for the Tweet though. It was from this morning.

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2 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I'm trying to find it again. Not sure how to search for a Twitter comment when I don't remember who typed it. Regardless, it was posted before the post you Tweeted so it might be old news. Maybe they cancelled it before issuing new orders or something. I'll keep looking for the Tweet though. It was from this morning.

@admin_270 I think prior to the last week or so, the Trump campaign was booking ads, then cancelling them at the last minute in some states, so it looked like they were going to be on the air more than they were. I haven't seen a single Trump ad in Iowa, and we're supposedly on the list. 

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Just now, Hestia11 said:

@admin_270 I think prior to the last week or so, the Trump campaign was booking ads, then cancelling them at the last minute in some states, so it looked like they were going to be on the air more than they were. I haven't seen a single Trump ad in Iowa, and we're supposedly on the list. 

I see about two Trump ads on TV a day. I see one Biden ad on TV almost every other commercial break. 

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