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Is Nevada the next Pennsylvania?


ThePotatoWalrus
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I've noticed the Trump campaign doing a lot of campaigning in Nevada lately, a state which people on the media and people here say is a solid blue state that won't go red, which sounds fairly reminiscent of his visits to Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan back in 2016. Could Nevada be a critical tipping point state?

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2 hours ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

I've noticed the Trump campaign doing a lot of campaigning in Nevada lately, a state which people on the media and people here say is a solid blue state that won't go red, which sounds fairly reminiscent of his visits to Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan back in 2016. Could Nevada be a critical tipping point state?

I thought Minnesota was more likely but Trump is really targeting the Latino community.

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4 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

I doubt it. Nevada is notoriously hard to poll. In 2018, the poll average was a tie, but Sen. Rosen ended up winning by five points. I wouldnt rule it out or sleep on it, but I am skeptical.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/nv/nevada_senate_heller_vs_rosen-6304.html

That's because "the house," doesn't want election betters (like @Actinguy and @ThePotatoWalrus) to have easy or reliable odd there. :P

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It's important to remember that polls in Nevada seriously overestimate Republicans and underestimate Democrats by weighting Upstate Nevada too heavly against Clark County.

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6 hours ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

I've noticed the Trump campaign doing a lot of campaigning in Nevada lately, a state which people on the media and people here say is a solid blue state that won't go red, which sounds fairly reminiscent of his visits to Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan back in 2016. Could Nevada be a critical tipping point state?

It's only like 6 EVs, so not as damaging as PA. The other thing is the state is a growing Southwestern state and these are trending Bluer. Rust belt states that are losing population are trending Redder. I think if anything, Trump has a better shot in PA and WI than NV. I think MI is totally out of his orbit this election. 

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30 minutes ago, Patine said:

That's because "the house," doesn't want election betters (like @Actinguy and @ThePotatoWalrus) to have easy or reliable odd there. :P

Speaking of bets.  I placed one a while back that Biden would beat Trump, and another on what the electoral margin would be.

I checked in on the bets yesterday, not much had changed.  But I realized that betting “not Donald Trump” would actually pay out a little more than “Joe Biden” would — even though such a bet would pay out if literally anyone except Trump wins.  Biden, Harris, Pence, Mickey Mouse, “your mom”, nobody at all — literally anyone but Trump.  So I sold my Biden bids for a tiny profit then tried to buy back in on “not Trump.”

 

Turns out there’s a limit to how many people can be in on a single bet, and it’s already maxed on the Biden vs Trump bet.  I couldn’t get back in.  Dang it — wish I’d known that when I sold my seat.

Oh well.  I took the money and doubled down on my margin bet.  

If the Democrat beats the Republican by a margin of 150-209 electoral votes, I’ll get about $500.

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I'd say both NV and MN are possible to win for the GOP. 

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Like others have mentioned, be careful about the polls in Nevada. I thought Trump would do better there in 2016 than ended up happening (one of the few meaningful states he underperformed in). It could very well go his way, but I wouldn't count on it.

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