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RealClearPolitics Polling Averages 2020 vs. 2016


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10 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said:

Michigan: Biden +7.2

Pennsyvlania: Biden +5.6

Wisconsin: Biden +6.3

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Michigan: Clinton +3.6

 

Pennsyvlania: Clinton +2.1

Wisconsin: Clinton +6.5


In reality, Trump won Michigan in by .3 percent, Pennsylvania by .7 percent, and Wisconsin by .7 percent.

 

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Yeah, doesn’t look good for Trump considering there’s an even larger margin he has to overcome. 

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24 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said:

 

Lot of time left :)

 

Yeah, anything can happen. Still doesn’t look good for him though. Polls aren’t tightening as one would expect. 

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44 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Yeah, anything can happen. Still doesn’t look good for him though. Polls aren’t tightening as one would expect. 

From what I've seen last few days it's been moving slightly for Trump but not significantly. 

 

Again I don't believe in polls but I'll begin to worry if Trump has a bad 3rd debate 

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33 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said:

From what I've seen last few days it's been moving slightly for Trump but not significantly. 

 

Again I don't believe in polls but I'll begin to worry if Trump has a bad 3rd debate 

It's not even if Trump has a bad debate - he needs to absolutely crush it. A tie with Biden in the debates is just as good as a win for Biden in my eyes. If Trump doesn't clearly win this one, it's over.

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1 hour ago, PoliticalPundit said:

From what I've seen last few days it's been moving slightly for Trump but not significantly. 

 

Again I don't believe in polls but I'll begin to worry if Trump has a bad 3rd debate 

The polls have been doing this for months. Also the FBI reopened up a case vs Clinton and you saw her poll numbers decline all the way up to the election. Do we think that will happen with Biden? Another thing Bidens favorables are way better than Clinton's. Biden won primaries without even campaigning and spending money in particular states. Those were some of the same states Bernie defeated Clinton in.

Trumps best chance was to keep his base and win over Independents. His base is loyal and wasnt leaving no matter what. He spent most of the last year kissing their ass and driving away Independents. 

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1 hour ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

It's not even if Trump has a bad debate - he needs to absolutely crush it. A tie with Biden in the debates is just as good as a win for Biden in my eyes. If Trump doesn't clearly win this one, it's over.

Yeah and he crushes the debate by shutting up and let Biden talk. For the first time all campaign Biden and Harris opened themselves up to some controversy because they were allowed to speak and are walking a tight line trying to win over Independents and keep the Bernie base IE: Packing the courts, fracking, green new deal, etc.

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4 hours ago, billay said:

Yeah and he crushes the debate by shutting up and let Biden talk. For the first time all campaign Biden and Harris opened themselves up to some controversy because they were allowed to speak and are walking a tight line trying to win over Independents and keep the Bernie base IE: Packing the courts, fracking, green new deal, etc.

I actually agree with this.  I cringed through the entire first debate...but only the last 99% of it was because of Donald Trump.  The first 1%, i was cringing because Joe Biden was giving a terrible performance...until Donald Trump SAVED him by being the spotlight hogging clown that he always has to be.  Literally shut up and let Biden speak, and Trump might actually win.

 

But that will never happen, because it would require restraint on Trump’s part, and he is 100% incapable of it.

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6 hours ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

If Trump doesn't clearly win this one, it's over.

He won't be awarded a win by the media anyway... 

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Well, they so well lied to pollsters in 2018 that they made Nancy Pelosi speaker of the House and elected Kyrsten Sinema in AZ.

I don't believe at all to this, even Trafalgar Group which is a republican pollster gives Biden 278 *as of now*

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59 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said:

 

Imagine thinking that Trump supporters are capable of not shouting just how much they love PRESIDENT DONALD JOHN TRUMP 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸 HE HAS US SAYING MERRY CHRISTMAS AGAIN 🎄 GOD CHOSE HIM ✝️ FOR THE AMERICAN PEOPLE DOG BLESS

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1 hour ago, Reagan04 said:

Imagine thinking that Trump supporters are capable of not shouting just how much they love PRESIDENT DONALD JOHN TRUMP 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸 HE HAS US SAYING MERRY CHRISTMAS AGAIN 🎄 GOD CHOSE HIM ✝️ FOR THE AMERICAN PEOPLE DOG BLESS

"Betty | 91 Years Young | Jesus is Our Only Savior ✝️"

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1 hour ago, Reagan04 said:

Imagine thinking that Trump supporters are capable of not shouting just how much they love PRESIDENT DONALD JOHN TRUMP 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸 HE HAS US SAYING MERRY CHRISTMAS AGAIN 🎄 GOD CHOSE HIM ✝️ FOR THE AMERICAN PEOPLE DOG BLESS

Come on, all of us should already know that the only candidate who truly serves the word of God is Kanye Omari West! #yeforpresident2020 #votekanye #writeinkanye #yeezus #2020vision

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2 hours ago, Reagan04 said:

Imagine thinking that Trump supporters are capable of not shouting just how much they love PRESIDENT DONALD JOHN TRUMP 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸 HE HAS US SAYING MERRY CHRISTMAS AGAIN 🎄 GOD CHOSE HIM ✝️ FOR THE AMERICAN PEOPLE DOG BLESS

not only have vocal trump supporters increased, but shy trump supporters as well

 

https://bongino.com/pollster-from-trafalgar-i-predict-trump-will-win-with-just-over-270-electoral-votes

 

it'll be close but of course depending on 3rd debate things may change 

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6 hours ago, PoliticalPundit said:

 

Ya, this is what I've been picking up for awhile. Some Trump supporters saying they actively mislead pollsters because it would be funny. No idea how large this effect is.

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3 hours ago, Edouard said:

they so well lied to pollsters in 2018 that they made Nancy Pelosi speaker of the House and elected Kyrsten Sinema in AZ

Trump wasn't on the ballot in 2018. But if you think 2018 statewide polling was by and large accurate ...

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Just now, admin_270 said:

Trump wasn't on the ballot in 2018. But if you think 2018 statewide polling was by and large accurate ...

He was not but it was a clear referendum on Trump, and we saw that democrats who have not been re-elected excepted for Jon Tester had all voted against Kavanaugh as Supreme Court in a state where Trump was mostly popular (Missouri, Indiana, Florida).

To the contrary the states where he was really unpopular switched like Arizona where McSally lost.

The main purpus of the 2018 was a referendum on Trump and actually Trump also said it expressively.

And yes, the 2018 pollings weren't that inaccurate, actually they had slightly underestimated the Dems for the House in % and seats (235 seats was 6 above their predicted average of 229).
 

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3 minutes ago, Edouard said:

o the contrary the states where he was really unpopular switched

How do you know Trump is really unpopular in AZ? He won it in 2016 by 3.5 pts. McSally is a mediocre candidate and Sinema is a good one. Kelly is perhaps a very good candidate.

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10 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

How do you know Trump is really unpopular in AZ? He won it in 2016 by 3.5 pts. McSally is a mediocre candidate and Sinema is a good one. Kelly is perhaps a very good candidate.

Justly he won there by 3,5 points

Mitt Romney won AZ by 9 points in 2012

AZ was among the states where Hillary Clinton made actual gains as compared to Obama

The McCain family, as well as Jeff Session support Joe Biden, the point is - to me - that Trump solidified the GOP in some states (Indiana, Iowa - still to see - , Ohio, maybe even Florida but not so sure now) while he clearly diminished the republicans in New Hampshire, Arizona, Virginia, Nevada and even Colorado

These states should have went for the GOP in 2016 with a regular GOP candidate, only one of these states actually did and seems to be flipping to the democratic party for both the senate and the presidency.

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Last election, my upper middle class Ohio neighborhood was a sea of “lock her up” signs.

About a month ago, I noticed that the split between Trump and Biden signs was more 50/50.

Well, I just walked through my neighborhood on foot, intentionally counting.  And we have a sudden infestation again.

23 Trump sign houses, 7 Biden sign houses (including mine.). Plus two houses that had no presidential sign but just “pray to end abortion”, and one that had no presidential sign but did display a LGBT flag.

One trend:  A lot of the Trump houses also had signs about supporting the police.

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