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What Donald should have learned from Jacinda Ardern


Edouard
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Today Prime Minister of New Zeland Jacinda Ardern won her re-election in a landslide

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_New_Zealand_general_election

The labor party not only won a majority, they did their best score since 1946.

We had already seen that handling the coronavirus at least in public opinion was leading to big electoral results since the South Korean general elections of 2020, but this time and for a second time we see that a government which is recognized for his handling of the covid wins in landslide.

And it's the major error of Donald Trump.

I personnaly believe that - excepted if a major event occurs in the next 2/3 weeks - the election is done.

Because 2 events screwed Donald Trump :

- The coronavirus which ruined economic results of Donald Trump

- The George Floyd riots and the division tactic that Trump openly played and which may increase black turnout.

But Trump response to covid could have been close of what Gov Dewine did - be hard on public safety - instead, Trump initially tried to fight masks and lockdowns - hoping to get an economic recovery before the november election - before to switch on safety measures because people over 65 were switching to Joe Biden.

Last polls showed that the 2020 election may be settled because of black turnout and an electoral switch of the seniors, but I firmly believe that if Trump would have played like Jacinda, he would be in a Bush 2004 position.

Also, to be fair, Jacinda is helped by the geographical position of NZ, it's easier to control coronavirus in the pacific but still her government delivered results.

impact of covid on NZ opinion pollings :

1920px-Opinion_polling_for_the_2020_New_Zealand_general_election.svg.png

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I wouldn't have voted for her. For me, Ardern is another one of those poseur politicians like Macron, Kurz or Sanna Marin for example. 

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That Wikipedia article needs some editing for bias - here's how the introductory section ends:

Quote

And Judith will stay as number one in the national party as she is an amazing leader.

Anyway, I was kind of hoping Labour would come up just shy of a majority so that they'd actually need to work with the Greens in order to govern. Still, in an era where the traditional center-left has been taking a beating, this counts for some good news.

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Ardern deserved it. This is what should happen when a competent leader... is able to lead their country through a pandemic in a unifying manner. We shall see what happens to the promise of Progressive Reform that she's wanted in New Zealand. This will be an interesting moment for the history of New Zealand. Will her bold agenda succeed or fail? Time will tell. 

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10 hours ago, Conservative Elector 2 said:

I wouldn't have voted for her. For me, Ardern is another one of those poseur politicians like Macron, Kurz or Sanna Marin for example. 

Basically, your typical right wing=good, left-wing=bad, context be damned, right?

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4 minutes ago, Patine said:

Basically, your typical right wing=good, left-wing=bad, context be damned, right?

I'd not argue Chancellor Kurz is left-wing, but still not very likeable.

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4 minutes ago, Conservative Elector 2 said:

I'd not argue Chancellor Kurz is left-wing, but still not very likeable.

Still, you seem to be heavily influenced by Manichaean thinking in the way you view socio-political matters. Such dualist thinking is counter-productive, ruinous, toxic, and cancerous, as well as being clinically proven to be psychologically and socially unhealthy. I would strongly suggest abandoning and transcending it.

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On 10/17/2020 at 2:40 PM, Edouard said:

Today Prime Minister of New Zeland Jacinda Ardern won her re-election in a landslide

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_New_Zealand_general_election

The labor party not only won a majority, they did their best score since 1946.

We had already seen that handling the coronavirus at least in public opinion was leading to big electoral results since the South Korean general elections of 2020, but this time and for a second time we see that a government which is recognized for his handling of the covid wins in landslide.

And it's the major error of Donald Trump.

I personnaly believe that - excepted if a major event occurs in the next 2/3 weeks - the election is done.

Because 2 events screwed Donald Trump :

- The coronavirus which ruined economic results of Donald Trump

- The George Floyd riots and the division tactic that Trump openly played and which may increase black turnout.

But Trump response to covid could have been close of what Gov Dewine did - be hard on public safety - instead, Trump initially tried to fight masks and lockdowns - hoping to get an economic recovery before the november election - before to switch on safety measures because people over 65 were switching to Joe Biden.

Last polls showed that the 2020 election may be settled because of black turnout and an electoral switch of the seniors, but I firmly believe that if Trump would have played like Jacinda, he would be in a Bush 2004 position.

Also, to be fair, Jacinda is helped by the geographical position of NZ, it's easier to control coronavirus in the pacific but still her government delivered results.

impact of covid on NZ opinion pollings :

1920px-Opinion_polling_for_the_2020_New_Zealand_general_election.svg.png

I actually think George Floyd's murder helped Donald Trump immensely.  

Walking around my own neighborhood, the majority of the houses that have a Trump sign in the yard also have one about supporting police.  I saw no such police signage in 2016.

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10 hours ago, Actinguy said:

I actually think George Floyd's murder helped Donald Trump immensely.  

Walking around my own neighborhood, the majority of the houses that have a Trump sign in the yard also have one about supporting police.  I saw no such police signage in 2016.

It surely may increase turnout for the basis of Trump

But if black turnout rise back from 59 to 65-66% because of the murder of George Floyd it may cost many states to the GOP (Georgia, NC, the rust belt, Florida)

Traditionnal republicans would not have used the same rethoric than Trump on George Floyd, the best example is George W Bush

 

A second point which lead me to believe that Trump lost a net support in his strategy is the switch of the american opinion on Black Lives Matter

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/09/16/support-for-black-lives-matter-has-decreased-since-june-but-remains-strong-among-black-americans/

Even if it slightly decreased since June, it remains very strong for the african-american community but most of all it remains stronger than it was 4 years ago.

However yes the big deal remains covid, I won't take the NBC poll which suggested that seniors went from Trump +10 to Biden +27 between 2016 and 2020 but it's sure there has been a switch from people over 65 and it will damage Trump (even if Biden may carry less than 63% of people on retirement unlike NBC poll suggests).

That's why for me the best strategy for Donald Trump to remain now is to try to unvalidate many mails in ballot and create delays in recount, a legit election doesn't seem playable anymore for him.

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