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State of the Race: 17 Days Left


17 Day Poll  

31 members have voted

  1. 1. See the Data in the First Post: Who do you think wins if the election were today?

  2. 2. Which "organization" is worse?

  3. 3. Which of the following incumbents Senators is most likely to be defeated in an upset if any upset occurs?

    • Sen. Lindsay Graham (SC) will be defeated by Jaime Harrison
    • Sen. John Cornyn (TX) will be defeated by MJ Hegar
      0
    • Sen. Steve Daines (MT) will be defeated by Steve Bullock
    • Sen. Dan Sullivan (AK) will be defeated by Al Gross
      0
    • Sen. David Perdue (GA) will be defeated by Jon Ossoff
    • Sen. Kelly Loeffler (GA) will be defeated by Rev. Raphael Warnock
    • Sen. Mitch McConnell (KY) will be defeated by Amy McGrath
      0
  4. 4. Which of the following is helping Biden earn votes the most?

    • Refusal to commit on whether or not he'd pack the court until after confirmation, even though he's clear that he doesn't agree with doing it.
      0
    • Refusal to commit to the Green New Deal and other initiative and stances advocated by Sanders, AOC, and Warren.
    • Advocacy of a return of bipartisanship and an open channel of communication between the opposing major parties.
    • Being cautious and "safe" with the pandemic by regularly wearing a mask and infrequently campaigning.
    • Trump's controversial rhetoric
  5. 5. Which of the following is helping Trump earn votes the most?

    • Doubling down on making his base happy, mostly through rhetoric.
    • Playing down the pandemic, for whatever reason, including campaigning as if the pandemic isn't a barrier to campaigning.
    • Reluctance to disavow controversial supporters, such as Proud Boys or QAnon.
      0
    • Sympathy from having had Covid + how quickly he recovered.
    • Biden's rambling rhetoric


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As usual, Blue trends for Biden and Red trends for Trump.

I'll be posting only today's polling average with a the difference from the previous day. Also, as stated yesterday, I'm only tracking the states that are competitive, statistically speaking. I will go back to tracking everything once we are a week away. I barely have time to do these updates currently.

  • Biden still holding his massive national lead.
  • While I don't have MI on here, since it is statistically out of Trump's orbit, the C-grade pollster Trafalgar (strong GOP bias) has Trump with +1 in MI. I only bring this up because this pollster, because of their GOP bias, was closer to accurate in the 2016 election than the high-grade pollster. However, the reason for their grade is that they're generally more off on their results than accurate. However, maybe they're more accurate in presidential elections. Biden leads Trump +7.5 in the national average of polls.
  • Trump now leads Biden in the average poll in OH; however, because of my Trump handicap, I was already giving OH to Trump.
  • Trump's approval has now fallen to the 42 approval range for the first time in about 20 days. 

No changes to the map:

Categories 17 Days Left
Gen Avg Biden 10.5 (-0.1)
AK avg  
AZ avg Biden 3.8 (0)
FL avg Biden 4.1 (0)
GA avg Biden 1.2 (-0.1)
IA avg Biden 0.2 (-0.1)
MI Avg  
MN avg  
MO avg  
MT avg  
NV avg  
NH Avg  
NC avg Biden 3.1 (-0.2)
OH avg Trump 0.1 (-0.4)
PA Avg  
SC avg  
TX avg Trump 1.4 (0)
WI Avg  
Trump Approval 42.9 (-0.5)
Trump Disapproval 54.1 (-0.2)

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Hmm, I don't think one tops each other as the "worse". They both are equally bad for America.

I dont understand why they are a C- pollster (except the hate Nate and Trafalgar owner have between themselves), in 2016 they predicted Red Michigan and were right (the nearest of all pollsters), Red

QAnon is more like a joke imo, they're not a threat as much as they'd like to be.

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I find this ''even though he's clear that he doesn't agree with doing it.'' quite debatable. Why can't he simply say ''no''? If he really opposes this measure, I'd say it's a lousy rhetorical tool to court the left, which isn't fair to them and the rest of the electorate obviously.

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Just now, SilentLiberty said:

QAnon is more like a joke imo, they're not a threat as much as they'd like to be.

I agree.

General Flynn took the ''oath'' for example. I'd still feel comfortable being in the same room with him. I can't say that about Antifa supporters...

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Biden taking the pandemic seriously and listening to the scientists (particularily in contrast to Trump)  is helping Biden with most of the vote he's getting, but being bipartisan is helping him win over some of the never-Trumper votes (and it helps with some independents and Democrats).

 

Trump's doubling down on rhetoric with the base is helping him with the base, and is likely to drive up their turnout.  But in terms of winning new votes, I would say his trying to focus the attention on the economy and distract from the pandemic (which could count as playing down the pandemic) is helping him.  But it's been harder to do that this month, given that he got covid.

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21 minutes ago, SilentLiberty said:

QAnon is more like a joke imo, they're not a threat as much as they'd like to be.

Agree. Antifa are actually mobilized whereas QAnon are those Facebook moms who repost antivaxx minion memes and watch documentaries on how Hillary Clinton is a satanic lizard man pedophile.

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1 hour ago, Hestia11 said:

I was too but they didn't factor in MSNBC or CNBC ratings at all in this while it only aired on ABC. 

 

also 

4.5 vs. 2.8 million online for Trump.

 

Nothing too crazy but the main point being NBC's debate was scattered on like 4 networks compared to 1, and only 1 was accounted for.

 

 

Overall the numbers are too erratic everywhere to draw any conclusions. 

 

 

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36 minutes ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

Agree. Antifa are actually mobilized whereas QAnon are those Facebook moms who repost antivaxx minion memes and watch documentaries on how Hillary Clinton is a satanic lizard man pedophile.

but according to @vcczar ANTIFA is not an organization so no condemning of them is necessary.

 

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15 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said:

I was too but they didn't factor in MSNBC or CNBC ratings at all in this while it only aired on ABC. 

 

also 

4.5 vs. 2.8 million online for Trump.

 

Nothing too crazy but the main point being NBC's debate was scattered on like 4 networks compared to 1, and only 1 was accounted for.

 

 

Overall the numbers are too erratic everywhere to draw any conclusions. 

 

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/16/media/town-hall-ratings-biden-trump/index.html

This counts the TV ratings for all of NBC's networks. Still less than ABC. 

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9 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/16/media/town-hall-ratings-biden-trump/index.html

This counts the TV ratings for all of NBC's networks. Still less than ABC. 

IDK then I'm surprised! 

From a partisan standpoint, I'd say Trump voters just didn't want to watch it/don't like mainstream media. And if you factor in online viewing it's about even. But obviously am dismayed by the ratings. Personally the ABC one was much better made presentationally than Savannah screaming at Trump for 30 minutes before allowing questions. 

 

 

IDK lol, I'll adjust my predictions off the ratings giving Biden a 3-4% boost from where it is now off this. So like 68% Biden wins, 32% Trump wins.

 

Still the next debate and final week of polling will make me look at things again closer. Still think this ends up being a 60-40 Biden chance by Election Day. 

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1 hour ago, admin_270 said:

Since 1912, when primaries basically began, in cases where an incumbent President has faced no serious opponent within his own party, he has won the election 11/11 times.

This election is totally unprecedented for a myriad of reasons, so I don’t think past elections are a reliable metric for what will happen.

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Just now, Zenobiyl said:

This election is totally unprecedented for a myriad of reasons, so I don’t think past elections are a reliable metric for what will happen.

Would you apply this across the board - for example, do you think polls are unreliable as well?

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Just now, admin_270 said:

Would you apply this across the board - for example, do you think polls are unreliable as well?

I take the polls with a grain of salt, but believe they are the best method of predicting the election we have. 

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3 minutes ago, Zenobiyl said:

This election is totally unprecedented for a myriad of reasons, so I don’t think past elections are a reliable metric for what will happen.

Yeah. Hes really popular with the GOP, but less so with Independents and Democrats. That lends to little intraparty fighting.

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2 minutes ago, Zenobiyl said:

I take the polls with a grain of salt, but believe they are the best method of predicting the election we have. 

Why do you believe that? Polls rely on complex models of electorates (where there are relevant differences in voting patterns, which demographics will turn out to what degree, and so on). If things are so unprecedented, why are those better than other methods?

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3 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

Yeah. Hes really popular with the GOP, but less so with Independents and Democrats. That lends to little intraparty fighting.

This seems to me a good start to a response to the 11/11 stat.

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54 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Since 1912, when primaries basically began, in cases where an incumbent President has faced no serious opponent within his own party, he has won the election 11/11 times.

That's interesting. I guess this election will likely be a presidential first. Donald Trump -- first incumbent president to lose reelection when facing no serious interparty competition. 

Since polling began, no incumbent president has had lower than 47% approval rating or lower at this point in an election and won reelection. 

Incumbents that ran for 2nd terms on this day in their presidency (source 538). Those in bold won. There's some other patterns that look bad for Trump in here as well, especially the Net Approval.  :

  1. Eisenhower 68%
  2. Clinton 59%
  3. Nixon 59%
  4. Reagan 55%
  5. Obama 49%
  6. Bush II 47%
  7. Truman 47%
  8. Ford 44% 
  9. Trump 43%
  10. Carter 38%
  11. Bush I 33%

Here's the same people by disapproval (bold won):

  1. Bush I 56%
  2. Carter 55%
  3. Trump 54%
  4. Bush II 48%
  5. Truman 48%
  6. Obama 47%
  7. Ford 41%
  8. Reagan 35%
  9. Clinton 33%
  10. Nixon 28%
  11. Eisenhower 19%

Net-Approval:

  1. Eisenhower +49
  2. Nixon +40
  3. Clinton +26
  4. Reagan +20
  5. Ford +3
  6. Obama +2
  7. Bush II -1
  8. Truman -1
  9. Trump -11
  10. Bush II -15
  11. Carter -17
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