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2nd Debate Moderator Steve Scully suspended indefinitely for lying about twitter hack


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Steve Scully who was set to moderate the second presidential debate has been suspended from C-SPAN after lying about Twitter hack following tweet to Anthony Scaramucci regarding Trump tweet.

 

- Intern for Biden

-Golfed and took pictures at Biden's charity events

- Tweeted about "Never Trump, not ever" in 2016

- Multiple times has lied about being "hacked" 

- Plotted with Never Trump politicians days before the debate 

 

Such a joke! I'm not surprised but it's amazing people will sacrifice their careers for The Donald. Just become a politician then Steve, don't act as a "fair non corrupt" journalist. 

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Just now, admin_270 said:

This election is the craziest since I've been following them (2000) *combined*. We still have 18 days to go ...

Unless Biden wins in a blowout on Election Day it's gonna be a shitshow till end of 2020 counting/throwing out votes. 

 

My guess is that the media will try to paint Trump's margins as slim indicating he is way behind Biden (and they'll over estimate Biden's mail-in ballots) to try to paint the narrative Trump lost no matter what on election night. 

 

It's just narrative setting.  

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Just now, admin_270 said:

Can add this as an event in the game if Trump is a player in the game.

I think this will give Trump a good boost in momentum. 

 

He's won every day media/momentum wise since he recovered from covid. 

 

His best plan is to relentlessly attack Steve Scully/twitter/media/NBC/ABC tonight at his town hall. Savannah Guthrie isn't going to be acting crazy like Chris Wallace or Steve Scully... she's more a host/inquisitor than partisan attack dog. 

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11 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

This is a very biased perspective. I doubt many people care, even if they agree that this was wrong (which many do). Its not like Biden's campaign was setting this up. This was one person doing something wrong. 

I disagree. I think Biden was winning virtually all off the days since the 1st debate happened up until Trump recovered from COVID. 

 

It's not significant, but it is winning each day. That adds up to a lot of momentum IF it continues past the final debate to the homestretch 

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Just now, Hestia11 said:

I was disagreeing with "This will give him a big boost of momentum". This won't.

I'd argue no one has really "won" in the last couple of weeks after the first debate. It's just been...normal. Everything's kept progressing as was - and it is evidenced by the rather stagnancy in all facets of polling. I'm not sure how he's "winning".

Guess we disagree about the effect of momentum then.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

I doubt it. Trump's will likely get better ratings, because he's a showman. That doesn't mean positive ratings. He isn't the most comfortable when fielding questions directly from voters. Empathy is Biden's strong suit, which translates well to a town-hall style format. 

I agree with the ratings difference not mattering a LOT. However if it is significantly lopsided, especially on Biden's side it'll be interesting to see. 

Biden's town halls so far have had 0 tough questions (including "undecided" who had already proclaimed on MSNBC they were voting for Biden). I'm sure George won't be doing anything major either.  

I thought Trumps' best debate ever was in the town-hall format of the 2nd debate. 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

It's undeniable that ratings are jaded. Most Biden supporters probably won't end up watching because they're already satisfied with the candidate, and don't feel like they'll learn anything new. Trump always is theatrical, so Trump supporters will likely watch it. I would be very surprised if Biden's ratings even compete with Trump's tonight. Some Biden supporters will probably watch Trump's as well, but I doubt any Trump supporters are going to be watching Biden's. 

It's the margin that intrigues me.

 

This is a lot of spinning ^ but if it's extremely lopsided (like a 2.5-3 million viewer difference.. that's even being generous) it means something. 

 

Again people don't answer polls honestly or hang up the phone. Ratings are objective which is why margin is significant. 

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Just now, Hestia11 said:

Ratings are not weighted by watcher or party affiliation or race or anything. That's why it isn't completely accurate. If 90% of those watching are white, that doesnt tell us much about who's voting for who. If 65% are male, that tells us little. I dont think you're quite grasping what polling companies do to weight their polls based on other factors, something ratings dont do. 

we just saw in 2016 how off and disastrous polls are (swing state wise not nationally) specifically re Trump. I don't believe in the integrity of polls whatsoever despite "weighing polls" or whatever. 

 

 

Ratings indicate enthusiasm. Crowds for rallies (in 2016 and now) indicate enthusiasm. I believe in that far more than polls. 

 

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1 minute ago, Hestia11 said:

You believe. Thats not a factual argument to base off of, so that explains why I'm not getting what you're saying. Youre entitled to your beliefs and I'm entitled to mine. But to blanket statement say that ratings indicate more than polls is just false. 

Fair. 

 

But if we're looking purely at data, past history and current candidates there is a lot of evidence factually and numerically speaking to indicate polls are off. You don't believe the polling industry is going to lose all integrity if Trump wins again?

 

Again, I could be wrong (as you might be) but my reasoning is based on past data and history not just a guess off nothing. Trump's already run before. We've seen these same poling companies make the biggest errors in political history 4 years ago w the same candidate. 

 

Ratings are not biased they are objective numbers. 

 

We agree to disagree. 

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7 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

They are not objective! Its not a fair basis to make a poll off of. You seem to think its baked in that Trump wins. But what if Biden wins? I'm not operating off "a guess off nothing", if the national popular vote holds up like it did in 2016, even if states are off, it will still mean a Biden victory. At 8-10 points up, that means he carries a healthy amount of swing states. I think more than anything in 2016, people viewed the national popular vote as a mirror of what it would be in swing states, which isnt true, obviously. But if the swing states are 2 points more GOP than the nation as a whole, Biden wins. That's assuming the state polls are off. I honestly think the state polls in 2016 were crappy. However, they improved (if not near "accurate") in 2018. 

That's to say a uniform polling error is against Biden, whereas in TX in 18, it was against Cruz. 

So even if Trump wins by a significant margin you find ratings totally irrelevant? 

Once again, the climate in 2020 from 2016 has only gotten worse. That needs to account into potential margin of error in polling.And imo this is a purely Trump issue not a 2018 issue. 

 

I'm not saying it's a lock Trump is winning. I'm saying people giving it like 85-15% odds like Nate silver fundamentally believe polls are usually accurate. I don't. I look more towards the betting sites that have it 66-33% for Biden, and without accounting for betting odds see it as a coin flip right now. It's close. 

 

What are betting sites taking into account that up Trump's odds by 25ish% if not polls? 

 

If the election was today Biden would win, but everyday in polling/momentum/news etc Trump is narrowing the gap. It's small but again if Trump can win the next 18-19 days I give him a great shot. 

 

 

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2 hours ago, PoliticalPundit said:

Steve Scully who was set to moderate the second presidential debate has been suspended from C-SPAN after lying about Twitter hack following tweet to Anthony Scaramucci regarding Trump tweet.

 

- Intern for Biden

-Golfed and took pictures at Biden's charity events

- Tweeted about "Never Trump, not ever" in 2016

- Multiple times has lied about being "hacked" 

- Plotted with Never Trump politicians days before the debate 

 

Such a joke! I'm not surprised but it's amazing people will sacrifice their careers for The Donald. Just become a politician then Steve, don't act as a "fair non corrupt" journalist. 

Oh that's just great. Bet this'll be what tanks Joe's campaign!

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14 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

The thing is that 538 factors in things like previous elections (particularly 2016), trends, etc. It's not straight polling as you would believe. For example, let's take a look at Iowa. It has a polling average, which Biden is leading. It allocates undecideds, averages with demographics and averages with economics and incumbency-based projections. It actually tilts back towards the GOP rather than straight polling.

image.png.8928ca87551543b2ffc298301182df4c.png

OK if that's the case. 

 

What I find annoying re Nate Silver is his constant dogging of Trump and hinted tweets how obvious it was Clinton was winning... then the day after the election celebrate that he was right that Trump was winning.

 

He hides his tweets w a lot of personal subjectivity and questionable "It's obvious who si winning tweest" that hides behind his metrics and numbers 

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