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State of the Race: 18 Days Left


vcczar
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Day 18 poll  

33 members have voted

  1. 1. See the Data in the First Post: Who do you think wins if the election were today?

  2. 2. Polling shows only 7 competitive states (within +5 margin on average) -- all which are Lean R states (FL, AZ, NC, GA, TX, IA, OH). Why do you think this is?

    • The American people are clearly opposed to Trump putting Trump's campaign firmly on the defense.
    • The polls have a huge Democratic bias.
    • This is bullshit propaganda. The era of scientific polling is over.
      0
    • Polls might not be biased, and may still be scientific, but polling is flawed. It's having issues getting accurate information.
  3. 3. Justice Barrett will be confirmed next week. Will her confirmation matter in the election?

    • Yes, it will be crucial into ramping up the anti-Trump coalition and ensuring their victory.
    • Yes, it will be crucial in swinging support for Trump and ensuring his victory.
    • It won't really matter.
  4. 4. Who wins the SC US Senate Race?

    • Sen. Lindsay Graham - R
    • Sen. Jaime Harrison - D
  5. 5. If Trump wins reelection, do you expect his 2nd term to be about as chaotic as his first term?

    • It will be more chaotic
    • It will be as chaotic
    • It will be less chaotic but still chaotic
    • I don't think it was chaotic and I don't think it will be next term.
      0
    • It won't be chaotic at all.


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As usual, Blue trends for Biden and Red trends for Trump.

NOTE: STARTING NOW, I'M OMMITTING TRACKING STATES that are +5 or more for any candidate. -- Note the black square. I won't track these any longer until my last State of the Race post. They're kind of just wasting my time right now. I'll look at them, but won't add them back to the list until they fall below +5. Basically, if the state is black, it isn't competitive, polling statistically speaking.

Overall, I'm going to have less time to post this each day. Originally, it took me like 10-15 minutes, but once I expanded what I was tracking, it's taking me like 30-45 min for each post.

  • Trump somewhat reduces Biden's lead in FL
  • Great polls for Trump in IA
  • Great polls for Biden in ME-2 and GA.
  • GA and ME-2 flip from Lean R to Lean D
  • IA flips from Lean D to Lean R
  • NV flips from Likely D to Safe D
  • MO and AK flip from Likely R to Safe R
  • As far as polls go, there are only 7 competitive states --- all generally Lean R states. 

Categories 18 Days Left A Week Ago 100 Days Left
Gen Avg Biden 10.4 (-0.2) Biden +0.3 Biden +2.4
AK avg   Trump 4.5 (-0.1) Trump +4.8
AZ avg Biden 3.8 (-0.1) Biden +0.1 Biden +0.9
FL avg Biden 4.1 (-0.4) Biden -0.3 Biden -3.5
GA avg Biden 1.3 (+0.6) Biden -0.1 Biden +2.6
IA avg Biden 0.3 (-1.0) Biden -0.8 Trump +0.6
MI Avg   Biden 8.4 (+0.6) Biden +7.4
MN avg   Biden 9.0 (+0.1) Biden +11.1
MO avg   Trump 5.6 (-0.1) Trump 5.5
MT avg   Trump 8.7 (-0.1) Trump +10.7
NV avg   Biden 6.8 (+0.1) Biden +6.7
NH Avg   Biden 10.7 (+0.8) Biden +7.5
NC avg Biden 3.3 (0) BIden +0.6 Biden +1.1
OH avg Biden 0.3 (+0.2) Biden -0.6 Biden -1.8
PA Avg   Biden 7.1 (+0.1) Biden +6.8
SC avg   Trump 5.4 (0) Trump + 6.6
TX avg Trump 1.4 (+0.1) Trump -0.3 Trump +1.4
WI Avg   Biden 7.1 (+0.1) Biden +7.1
Trump Approval 43 (-0.4) -0.3 2.8
Trump Disapproval 54.3 (+0.6) 1 -1.4
Favorability   Biden 18.2 (0) Biden +11.7
Direction of the Country   -31.5 (6.2) -45.5
Generic Ballot   Dem 6.6 (0) Democrats +8.6
Betting Markets   Biden 64.6 (+0.3) Biden 60.7
Clinton vs. Trump 2016 GE      
Biden vs Clinton GE Polls      

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For the last question: Absolute chaos.  The ONLY thing that has been constraining Trump even 0.01% from doing literally ANYTHING he wants is the knowledge that he would have to face another election again, eventually.

But once he wins again, and has no future elections to consider?  

Look out.

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Re 3., my best guess at this point is a Coney Barrett confirmation will energize conservatives more, and probably will net help Trump, but not sure if it will be crucial.

Re 4., I don't think it will be that close.

Re 2., I answered the fourth option, but I don't think polls have ever been 'scientific'. They're surveys, where sometimes it's easier to get the representative data, sometimes not. With public polling, there are of course biases that factor in at multiple levels. The big problem with Presidential elections is you only have 1 data point to test the polls on.

Re 5., the chaos in the Trump admin has mostly been domestic responses to his actions (entrapment of Flynn, setting the Special Counsel in action, impeachment, and so on). On the foreign front, there have been no major new military interventions and a ramping down of U.S. military presence in some places. Middle East dynamics have probably gotten better, and arguably the dynamics re N. Korea have gotten better. My guess is the foreign  component will continue in a second term, should Trump win. Internally, to some significant extent my guess is it depends on the composition of the House and Senate.

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It will be less chaotic as COVID’s effects will gradually subside.

Lindsay Graham will win. He’s not well liked, but its a conservative state at the end of the day. I think Harrison will pull a Beto and turn it purple, but will ultimately come up short.

Barett’s nomination will motivate upset/concerned democrats to vote, but will also convince religious conservatives to re-enter the trump coalition. Overall, I think the two groups will nullify each other.

Although I think the playing field is unfavorable for Trump, there is something to him that polling struggles to capture. I think Trump will perform better than the polls suggest, but not to the degree that it changes the result.

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I think all polling should naturally always be treated with some sort of  skepticism. It gives us an idea, but not the full picture.   

I think a confirmation will end up energizing both sides of the aisle, but with the Anti-Trump coalition slightly more.

Lindsay Graham will win around 7%, 8% maybe. I don't expect it to be close, maybe it could be at Texas 2018 levels. 

I choose as chaotic, but what do I know? Trump could do a complete 180 if he wanted too. 

 

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54 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

For the last question: Absolute chaos.  The ONLY thing that has been constraining Trump even 0.01% from doing literally ANYTHING he wants is the knowledge that he would have to face another election again, eventually.

But once he wins again, and has no future elections to consider?  

Look out.

If that happens, there won't BE any future elections, because they'll be abolished!

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13 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

I completely understand you not wanting to spend more time than needed on these posts, but as a reference point at this date in 2016

MI was Clinton +11.4

PA was Clinton +7

WI was Clinton +6

Is this RCP?

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Sources are saying more to come from Biden's laptop. Meanwhile Twitter has locked or limited access to accounts such as White House Press Secretary, Team Trump (official Trump campaign account), and the NY Post (I believe this remains locked) in the last day. Their rationale for doing this ("Content obtained without authorization") is laughable, and if applied consistently would have resulted in locking accounts retweeting info about many major stories about Trump.

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2 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Sources are saying more to come from Biden's laptop. Meanwhile Twitter has locked or limited access to accounts such as White House Press Secretary, Team Trump (official Trump campaign account), and the NY Post (I believe this remains locked) in the last day. Their rationale for doing this ("Content obtained without authorization") is laughable, and if applied consistently would have resulted in locking accounts retweeting info about many major stories about Trump.

Jack Dorsey expressed concern about twitter's handling of the Hunter story. Jack has created Frankenstein. I didn't know Trump's taxes were obtained with authorization lol.

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I feel like the nationwide polls are close to being  correct (Biden +9.2). I expect Biden's RCP lead to drop to 6-7 before the election. Even with that large of a nationwide lead, I feel that a scenario in which Trump loses Arizona and North Carolina but wins WI, PA, FL is very possible. I don't believe the Rust Belt will follow National Trends. 

 

 1.PNG.4069fa972523cfcff2e7c007dd8fb4f7.PNG

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1 minute ago, BeetleJuice said:

I feel like the nationwide polls are close to being  correct (Biden +9.2). I expect Biden's RCP lead to drop to 6-7 before the election. Even with that large of a nationwide lead, I feel that a scenario in which Trump loses Arizona and North Carolina but wins WI, PA, FL is very possible. I don't believe the Rust Belt will follow National Trends. 

 

 1.PNG.4069fa972523cfcff2e7c007dd8fb4f7.PNG

I know there less undecided in 2020, but Trump outperforming polling in 2016 should be troubling to the biden camp

2.PNG

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57 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

I completely understand you not wanting to spend more time than needed on these posts, but as a reference point at this date in 2016

MI was Clinton +11.4

PA was Clinton +7

WI was Clinton +6

 

If they get to +5 then I'll add them. I'll also note if they're falling. They just haven't budged in ages and they're statistically out of orbit, whether they're accurate or not.

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43 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Sources are saying more to come from Biden's laptop. Meanwhile Twitter has locked or limited access to accounts such as White House Press Secretary, Team Trump (official Trump campaign account), and the NY Post (I believe this remains locked) in the last day. Their rationale for doing this ("Content obtained without authorization") is laughable, and if applied consistently would have resulted in locking accounts retweeting info about many major stories about Trump.

It's a disgrace and certainly an interference in the electoral process.

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Just now, Actinguy said:

The electoral process has nothing to do with Twitter.  We've actually been having elections all along, even before Twitter was invented.

But the problem is a major institution is trying to suppress controversial information in order to help one side. That's crystal clear.

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2 minutes ago, Conservative Elector 2 said:

But the problem is a major institution is trying to suppress controversial information in order to help one side. That's crystal clear.

It's not a major institution.  It is a company, and if they want to be a company that is trying to influence the election, they will have to take a number.

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