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State of the Race: 19 Days Left


19 Day Poll  

29 members have voted

  1. 1. See the Data in the First Post: Who do you think wins if the election were today?

  2. 2. Today, Justice Barrett would not say one way or another if Trump is allowed to pardon himself. Do you think the president has the right to pardon himself?

    • Yes.
    • Yes, but I don't think he should have that right.
    • No. The framer's of the Constitution feared despotism and obviously they would have never intended to allow the president that kind of power.
  3. 3. If you were a US Senator, which high profile politician would you confirm to the Supreme Court if it came to a vote?

    • Amy Coney Barrett
    • Merrick Garland
    • Ted Cruz
    • Tom Cotton
    • Rand Paul
    • Ron Paul
    • Dennis Kucinich
    • Barack Obama
    • Donald Trump
      0
    • Steve Bannon
      0
    • Roy Moore
    • Kamala Harris
    • Adam Schiff
    • Judge Judy
    • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
    • Bernie Sanders
    • John Kasich
    • Pete Buttigieg
    • Alex Jones
      0
    • Vermin Supreme
  4. 4. In a recent interview, Noam Chomsky asked the question, "Do you want your grandchildren to survive?" Governmentally, what is the best we can do to better ensure the survival of our grandchildren.

    • I don't really care about two generations down the line.
      0
    • I don't think the federal government should play a role in better ensuring the survival of the human race. Leave it to the private sector or local governments.
    • I think combating climate change and saving the environment will best ensure their survival.
    • I think reducing nuclear weapons and creating a global framework for non-military engagement and intervention will best ensure their survival.
    • I think eliminating tariffs and enforcing full free trade will best ensure their survival.
    • I think removing most regulations on businesses, corporations, and private industries will best ensure their survival.
    • I think investing heavily in space exploration will best ensure their survival.
    • I think converting the US government and elections to that government into something more resembling a pure and full Democracy will best ensure their survival.
    • I think appointing a strong man with enlightened despotic tendencies will best ensure their survival.
      0
    • I think we are all doomed and should just blow ourselves up (this option is for Wiw)
      0
    • Other (mention below)
      0
  5. 5. Trump is way down in the polls and the EC map is moving out of his direction. Of these, what is most important for Trump out of the following if he wants to win?

    • He needs to alter his rhetoric and stop playing down Covid.
    • He needs to come up with some sort of grand idea -- like a detailed, believable Populist New Deal Post-Covid Package or something.
    • He should just ramp up his standard rhetoric even more and just hope his base is enough.
    • He just needs to continually hold rallies in FL and PA and that'll do it.
    • He needs to get one of his Covid infected aides to get close enough to Biden to kiss him.
    • He just needs great economic news by election day.
    • He just needs to invalidate most or all mail-in ballots.
    • He just needs to send it to the Supreme Court, whatever the result, and hope his 3 justices somehow invalidate the election.
    • He just needs to keep preemptively declaring the election fraudulent long and loud enough that the country collapses when he loses, and he can declare a national emergency and suspend the Constitution
    • He doesn't need to alter anything that he's doing. I think he's already winning.


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2 hours ago, Hestia11 said:

To be fair a lot of people hang up on polls :P 

never been polled but don't you have to submit a lot of personal info to pollsters over the phone? Demographic, age, race, gender, ... possibly full name? 

 

In that case I see why so many people don't want it publicly known. Not believing the polls whatsoever. 

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2 hours ago, admin_270 said:

Primaries results -> Trump (this is where you get Norpoth's 91% Trump prediction).

Enthusiasm -> Trump.

Partisan registration data -> Trump.

Economic data -> Trump (no incumbent has lost while employment numbers are improving).

Better off than 4 years ago -> Trump (Biden recently told the 56% of Americans who said this according to a recent poll to not vote for him).

Battleground ave. vs. 2016 -> Trump (currently +0.3%, of course this can change rapidly).

Yard signage in key regions -> Trump (anecdotal, but from people driving across large regions of battleground states and keeping track).

Public polls -> Biden (but similar to Hillary in 2016).

 

2 hours ago, Hestia11 said:

To be fair a lot of people hang up on polls :P 

 

1 hour ago, vcczar said:

That's kind of shocking. I wonder if the number that say they are "much worse off" has also increased, however. 

Maybe people who are worse off also "hang up on polls"? 

Hard to answer the phone if you're suffering from COVID-19 -- or, for that matter, if your phone was turned off because you couldn't afford it due to unemployment, etc.

Gallup also has "Satisfaction with the way things are going in the US" has fallen to just 20% (compared to 45% right before COVID hit).  Democrat satisfaction is at 6%, the lowest it's been since right before the 2008 Presidential election.  Republican satisfaction is at 39%...down from 80% before COVID.  Independents is at 18%, the lowest since 2016.  Top concerns are split pretty evenly between "The Government/Poor Leadership" (21%), "Coronavirus/Diseases" (20%), "Race Relations/Racism" (19%), and "Economy/Jobs/Income Gap Between Rich and Poor" at 16%.

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1 minute ago, PoliticalPundit said:

never been polled but don't you have to submit a lot of personal info to pollsters over the phone? Demographic, age, race, gender, ... possibly full name? 

 

In that case I see why so many people don't want it publicly known. Not believing the polls whatsoever. 

My wife has been polled for political questions many times, somehow.  I got polled once -- they called me on my wife's cell phone number, asking for me.

They do ask for demographics, but I don't really consider that to be personal information.  You can tell my race and gender by looking at me, and my age isn't some dark secret.  As for name, they ask for you BY name when they call.  So they already have that.

 

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1 minute ago, Actinguy said:

Hard to answer the phone if you're stuffering from COVID-19

My guess is the reason people hang up or don't answer the phone re pollsters is they don't have time. It's busy people - the opposite of this. Vast majority of people who have had Covid-19 had it at home and it was mild - asymptomatic -> flu-like. You see the peeps in the hospital (very small %), so you get a select view.

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1 minute ago, Actinguy said:

My wife has been polled for political questions many times, somehow.  I got polled once -- they called me on my wife's cell phone number, asking for me.

They do ask for demographics, but I don't really consider that to be personal information.  You can tell my race and gender by looking at me, and my age isn't some dark secret.  As for name, they ask for you BY name when they call.  So they already have that.

 

Wow, they ask for you by name? That's even worse.

for business and personal aspects I really wouldn't trust polls in this climate if that's how phone polls work. 

 

As we know, it's fine to support Biden openly on social media in public, but in certain states areas, there severe discrimination against Trump voters for being vocal about it. 

 

The main issue being name, but even race/gender is invasive imo in such a deeply divided election. 

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1 minute ago, PoliticalPundit said:

Wow, they ask for you by name? That's even worse.

for business and personal aspects I really wouldn't trust polls in this climate if that's how phone polls work. 

 

As we know, it's fine to support Biden openly on social media in public, but in certain states areas, there severe discrimination against Trump voters for being vocal about it. 

 

The main issue being name, but even race/gender is invasive imo in such a deeply divided election. 

Yeah...not following you at all on the privacy concerns.  You appear to have internet access, so your privacy is long gone already.  Especially for something as basic and public as your name, gender, and race.

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5 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

My guess is the reason people hang up or don't answer the phone re pollsters is they don't have time. It's busy people - the opposite of this. Vast majority of people who have had Covid-19 had it at home and it was mild - asymptomatic -> flu-like. You see the peeps in the hospital (very small %), so you get a select view.

Your answer is that the people who are bored at home with nothing to do but answer polls are the people who are better off than they were four years ago?

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1 minute ago, Actinguy said:

Your answer is that the people who are bored at home with nothing to do but answer polls are the people who are better off than they were four years ago?

No, where are you getting this? My guess is that busier people tend to answer polls less frequently.

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1 minute ago, admin_270 said:

@Actinguy

What is confusing you about my comment?

I'm confused about who you think answered the poll to say they're better off than they were four years ago.  You think it's people with the flu/people who are just laying around at home with nothing better going on in their lives right now?  Those are the people that are better off now?  How bad was their life four years ago?

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Just now, Actinguy said:

I'm confused about who you think answered the poll to say they're better off than they were four years ago.  You think it's people with the flu/people who are just laying around at home with nothing better going on in their lives right now?  Those are the people that are better off now?  How bad was their life four years ago?

No, the vast majority of people polled aren't going to have the flu or coronavirus. It will have a small effect on any national poll. 

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3 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

No, the vast majority of people polled aren't going to have the flu or coronavirus. It will have a small effect on any national poll. 

I also said unemployed/had phone turned off due to economic problems.  On the flip side, you'd also have people who had to pick up extra work to make ends meet under the Trump Presidency.  Night shift workers who are asleep during polling hours, etc etc.  

But even just taking the question at face value:

Am "I" better off?  Well...financially, yes.  For starters, my career has naturally continued to climb over time just like most careers usually do.   I also have more money in the bank right now than I've ever had in my life -- thanks to a combination of extra overtime due to COVID and lowered spending due to COVID, probably.  

But is the country better off?  Hell no.  And I'm not choosing a President of my life, I'm choosing a President of the country.  

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@vcczar

Re 1., I think it is reasonable for someone to hold that, if the election were held today, Trump would win OH, AZ, NC, IA, FL, and NE-2.

That puts Trump at 260. That would mean he would need 1 of the blue wall to win. MN, WI, MI, PA. Is it reasonable to hold he might win one of those if the election were today? Perhaps.

I also think it's reasonable to hold that, if the election were held today, Biden would win all of those.

It largely turns on how accurate you think the battleground polls are, versus other predictive methods (such as voter registration).

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2 hours ago, admin_270 said:

Primaries results -> Trump (this is where you get Norpoth's 91% Trump prediction).

Enthusiasm -> Trump.

Partisan registration data -> Trump.

Economic data -> Trump (no incumbent has lost while employment numbers are improving).

Better off than 4 years ago -> Trump (Biden recently told the 56% of Americans who said this according to a recent poll to not vote for him).

Battleground ave. vs. 2016 -> Trump (currently +0.3%, of course this can change rapidly).

Yard signage in key regions -> Trump (anecdotal, but from people driving across large regions of battleground states and keeping track).

Public polls -> Biden (but similar to Hillary in 2016).

Primaries result?  That's ridiculous, the Republican party didn't have a real primary.  Nine states didn't have a Republican vote at all, and many others decided to switch from proportional allocation to "winner takes all" to "avoid dissent".  

Enthusiasm?  I promise you that the "not Trump" crowd is fully enthused.  Biden wasn't my top choice in the primary, but his sign is the first one I've ever displayed in my front yard.

Partisan registration data?  I'm not sure where you're getting this from.  The most recent data I could find was 2018, which suggested 54% Democrat, 35% Republican, 11% Independent.  https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2018/10/09/the-rbs-poll-comports-well-with-data-from-the-full-voter-file-about-the-partisanship-of-registered-voters/

Economic Data?  My 401k has decreased by more than $10,000 since March.

Yard signage?  Not in my previous "Lock her up" neighborhood in swing state Ohio.  We're hitting 50% these days.
 

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4 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

@vcczar

Re 1., I think it is reasonable for someone to hold that, if the election were held today, Trump would win OH, AZ, NC, IA, FL, and NE-2.

That puts Trump at 260. That would mean he would need 1 of the blue wall to win. MN, WI, MI, PA. Is it reasonable to hold he might win one of those if the election were today? Perhaps.

I also think it's reasonable to hold that, if the election were held today, Biden would win all of those.

It largely turns on how accurate you think the battleground polls are, versus other predictive methods (such as voter registration).

Yeah, I agree with all of this. 

I expect Trump to win OH, NC, IA, and NE-2, despite the projection. On Monday, before election day, I'll make my prediction, which will be independent of the poll projection I put every day. I think AZ and FL are tossups with AZ leaning D and FL leaning R in my opinion. My biggest disagreement with you in this is that I think MN, WI, and MI are way out of Trump's reach with votes already coming in and Biden leading +7 to +9 in these states consistently. I think if he defies the polls in any state, it's going to be PA since that one is +5 to +7. 

I agree that because we have an EC and not a democratic election that Trump can win the game by playing by the game's rules. He's much stronger because if these rules. If we had a fairer process of free election and democratic vote, it would have been clear this election was over with almost a year ago.

I've said this already, but I think PA and FL are they key to the election. Trump wins if he holds both. Biden likely wins if he wins one of them. Despite FL being worth more votes, I think PA will mean he wins WI, MI, and MN for sure. If he wins FL but loses PA, then I'll fear he'll win an upset in MI and WI. However, winning FL might mean he will win AZ. If Biden wins NC before FL and PA are called, then I think that signals that Biden will likely ultimately win FL. If GA is somehow called for BIden before FL and NC be called, then I think it means Biden will ultimately win both FL and NC, and possibly has a real shot in TX. 

I think there's almost no chance Trump wins any new states, including NV. If he does win reelection, it will resemble Obama's reelection, when he became the 2nd President since Andrew Jackson to do worse in their reelection victory. 

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Just now, Actinguy said:

Primaries result?  That's ridiculous, the Republican party didn't have a real primary.  Nine states didn't have a Republican vote at all, and many others decided to switch from proportional allocation to "winner takes all" to "avoid dissent".  

Enthusiasm?  I promise you that the "not Trump" crowd is fully enthused.  Biden wasn't my top choice in the primary, but his sign is the first one I've ever displayed in my front yard.

Partisan registration data?  I'm not sure where you're getting this from.  The most recent data I could find was 2018, which suggested 54% Democrat, 35% Republican, 11% Independent.  https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2018/10/09/the-rbs-poll-comports-well-with-data-from-the-full-voter-file-about-the-partisanship-of-registered-voters/

Economic Data?  My 401k has decreased by more than $10,000 since March.

Yard signage?  Not in my previous "Lock her up" neighborhood in swing state Ohio.  We're hitting 50% these days.
 

The predictive aspect of primaries results is how well an incumbent President does in his party's primaries. Trump did very well, which shows a lack of internal opposition to an incumbent President. This is highly predictive (high correlation between good results and re-election).

Your point about enthusiasm is a good one - people aren't enthused about another candidate, but rather about removing a candidate. This is important, and might make the enthusiasm gap for candidates misleading. However, it's pretty clear the enthusiasm for getting Trump out of office isn't translating much into traditional markers for this sort of thing when it comes to Biden events. Car parades, for example, or Trump's kids attracting more people to events than Biden, or more people welcoming Biden to places he's campaigning with Trump signs than Biden signs. Still, good point.

I've linked before to partisan registration data for this cycle, but don't have it off-hand. Republicans have made gains relative to 2016 in key states in partisan registrations.

The predictive economic data being referred to is change in employment. No incumbent President has lost while unemployment has been decreasing.

Your yard signage anecdote is a start (and relevant since you're in a swing state), but I'm referring to accounts I've read where people have driven across battleground states and tallied the results.

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This is from a month ago but it's interesting ( @admin_270 ) https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/16/politics/cnn-poll-biden-trump-august/index.html

  • a majority of voters (53%) are "extremely enthusiastic" about voting in this year's election, a new high in CNN polling in presidential election cycles back to 2003.
  • Overall, 50% of registered voters back the Biden-Harris ticket, while 46% say they support Trump and Pence, right at the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
  • Among the 72% of voters who say they are either extremely or very enthusiastic about voting this fall, Biden's advantage over Trump widens to 53% to 46%.
  •  Biden's enthusiasm margin is narrower, however, among those voters who live in the states that will have the most impact on the electoral college this fall.
  • the survey suggests that Trump's voters are a bit more likely to say that they could change their minds by November (12% say so) than are Biden's backers (7%).
  • Overall, 54% disapprove of the way Trump is handling his job as president and 42% approve. 

While this is just one poll, it contradicts the Trump voters as more enthusiastic than Biden voters. If social media is a determiner, I have not seen such enthusiasm for a Democratic ticket victory since 2008. 

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11 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Yeah, I agree with all of this. 

I expect Trump to win OH, NC, IA, and NE-2, despite the projection. On Monday, before election day, I'll make my prediction, which will be independent of the poll projection I put every day. I think AZ and FL are tossups with AZ leaning D and FL leaning R in my opinion. My biggest disagreement with you in this is that I think MN, WI, and MI are way out of Trump's reach with votes already coming in and Biden leading +7 to +9 in these states consistently. I think if he defies the polls in any state, it's going to be PA since that one is +5 to +7. 

I agree that because we have an EC and not a democratic election that Trump can win the game by playing by the game's rules. He's much stronger because if these rules. If we had a fairer process of free election and democratic vote, it would have been clear this election was over with almost a year ago.

I've said this already, but I think PA and FL are they key to the election. Trump wins if he holds both. Biden likely wins if he wins one of them. Despite FL being worth more votes, I think PA will mean he wins WI, MI, and MN for sure. If he wins FL but loses PA, then I'll fear he'll win an upset in MI and WI. However, winning FL might mean he will win AZ. If Biden wins NC before FL and PA are called, then I think that signals that Biden will likely ultimately win FL. If GA is somehow called for BIden before FL and NC be called, then I think it means Biden will ultimately win both FL and NC, and possibly has a real shot in TX. 

I think there's almost no chance Trump wins any new states, including NV. If he does win reelection, it will resemble Obama's reelection, when he became the 2nd President since Andrew Jackson to do worse in their reelection victory. 

Pretty much all sounds reasonable to me.

I agree re NV (I think it's a stretch at best), but recent LVRJ poll there is Biden +2. This is close to recent Rasmussen +1. Given recent campaign maneuvers there, that might be somewhere in the ballpark, who knows?

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8 minutes ago, vcczar said:

This is from a month ago but it's interesting ( @admin_270 ) https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/16/politics/cnn-poll-biden-trump-august/index.html

  • a majority of voters (53%) are "extremely enthusiastic" about voting in this year's election, a new high in CNN polling in presidential election cycles back to 2003.
  • Overall, 50% of registered voters back the Biden-Harris ticket, while 46% say they support Trump and Pence, right at the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
  • Among the 72% of voters who say they are either extremely or very enthusiastic about voting this fall, Biden's advantage over Trump widens to 53% to 46%.
  •  Biden's enthusiasm margin is narrower, however, among those voters who live in the states that will have the most impact on the electoral college this fall.
  • the survey suggests that Trump's voters are a bit more likely to say that they could change their minds by November (12% say so) than are Biden's backers (7%).
  • Overall, 54% disapprove of the way Trump is handling his job as president and 42% approve. 

While this is just one poll, it contradicts the Trump voters as more enthusiastic than Biden voters. If social media is a determiner, I have not seen such enthusiasm for a Democratic ticket victory since 2008. 

you lost me at "CNN Poll" 

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There's always chatter about "Shy Trump Supporters" in the cities and such, places that tend to lean leftwards. However, why is there never chatter about Shy Biden Supporters, in rural areas, or red suburbs? Surely you'd be under scrutiny for supporting a Democrat just as much as someone supporting a Republican in the city.

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25 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said:

October 19th, 2016 CNN  https://kutv.com/news/nation-world/road-to-270-cnns-latest-electoral-college-map

 

"There is no path" - John King

@vcczar

image.jpeg

Doesn't mean a fluke is going to happen twice, especially twice in a row. You have to go back to 1948 to have something like that happen again. However, I do remember this. I thought she'd also win NC. I was wrong too. However, I think it would be improbable for such a fluke to happen again, although not impossible.

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@Actinguy re voter registration data,

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/trump-s-winning-voter-registration-battle-against-biden-key-states-n1241674

"new data from the past few months shows Republicans have swamped Democrats in adding new voters to the rolls, a dramatic GOP improvement over 2016"

"Of the six states Trump won by less than 5 points in 2016, four — Arizona, Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania — permit voters to register by party. In all four states, voter registration trends are more robust for the GOP than four years ago."

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11 minutes ago, vcczar said:

mean a fluke is going to happen twice

If it was actually a fluke. If it's a systemic problem with public polling, it's not a fluke. 2018 statewide polls were bad as well, suggesting a bigger problem with polling than a statistical fluke.

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One thing to consider about where Presidential campaign resources are being allocated is Senate races, which are crucial to a President's ability to enact an agenda.

IA, for example, doubles as a battleground state and a Senate election this cycle.

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