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State of the Race: 19 Days Left


vcczar
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19 Day Poll  

30 members have voted

  1. 1. See the Data in the First Post: Who do you think wins if the election were today?

  2. 2. Today, Justice Barrett would not say one way or another if Trump is allowed to pardon himself. Do you think the president has the right to pardon himself?

    • Yes.
    • Yes, but I don't think he should have that right.
    • No. The framer's of the Constitution feared despotism and obviously they would have never intended to allow the president that kind of power.
  3. 3. If you were a US Senator, which high profile politician would you confirm to the Supreme Court if it came to a vote?

    • Amy Coney Barrett
    • Merrick Garland
    • Ted Cruz
    • Tom Cotton
    • Rand Paul
    • Ron Paul
    • Dennis Kucinich
    • Barack Obama
    • Donald Trump
      0
    • Steve Bannon
      0
    • Roy Moore
    • Kamala Harris
    • Adam Schiff
    • Judge Judy
    • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
    • Bernie Sanders
    • John Kasich
    • Pete Buttigieg
    • Alex Jones
      0
    • Vermin Supreme
  4. 4. In a recent interview, Noam Chomsky asked the question, "Do you want your grandchildren to survive?" Governmentally, what is the best we can do to better ensure the survival of our grandchildren.

    • I don't really care about two generations down the line.
      0
    • I don't think the federal government should play a role in better ensuring the survival of the human race. Leave it to the private sector or local governments.
    • I think combating climate change and saving the environment will best ensure their survival.
    • I think reducing nuclear weapons and creating a global framework for non-military engagement and intervention will best ensure their survival.
    • I think eliminating tariffs and enforcing full free trade will best ensure their survival.
    • I think removing most regulations on businesses, corporations, and private industries will best ensure their survival.
    • I think investing heavily in space exploration will best ensure their survival.
    • I think converting the US government and elections to that government into something more resembling a pure and full Democracy will best ensure their survival.
    • I think appointing a strong man with enlightened despotic tendencies will best ensure their survival.
      0
    • I think we are all doomed and should just blow ourselves up (this option is for Wiw)
      0
    • Other (mention below)
  5. 5. Trump is way down in the polls and the EC map is moving out of his direction. Of these, what is most important for Trump out of the following if he wants to win?

    • He needs to alter his rhetoric and stop playing down Covid.
    • He needs to come up with some sort of grand idea -- like a detailed, believable Populist New Deal Post-Covid Package or something.
    • He should just ramp up his standard rhetoric even more and just hope his base is enough.
    • He just needs to continually hold rallies in FL and PA and that'll do it.
    • He needs to get one of his Covid infected aides to get close enough to Biden to kiss him.
    • He just needs great economic news by election day.
    • He just needs to invalidate most or all mail-in ballots.
    • He just needs to send it to the Supreme Court, whatever the result, and hope his 3 justices somehow invalidate the election.
    • He just needs to keep preemptively declaring the election fraudulent long and loud enough that the country collapses when he loses, and he can declare a national emergency and suspend the Constitution
    • He doesn't need to alter anything that he's doing. I think he's already winning.


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As usual, Blue trends for Biden and Red trends for Trump.

  • Biden is back up to +10.6 on Trump. 
  • KS is getting very close to being added to this list. It's only +7.1 for Trump. If it gets in the 6 range, then it will be added.
  • Trump gains half a point in NV; however, it is still firmly in Biden's corner.
  • Biden is averaging +11.3 in NH!
  • Trump continues to decrease Biden's lead in OH
  • Biden is averaging +7.9 in WI
  • No Changes on the map

Categories 19 Days Left A Week Ago 100 Days Left
Gen Avg Biden 10.6 (+0.2) Biden 9.8 (+1.0) Biden +2.6
AK avg Trump 4.7 (-0.1) Trump +0.1 Trump -0.1
AZ avg Biden 3.9 (+0.2) Biden -0.6 Biden +1.0
FL avg Biden 4.5 (-0.1) Biden -0.2 Biden -3.1
GA avg Biden 0.7 (+0.1) Biden -0.5 Biden +2.0
IA avg Biden 1.3 (+0.2) Biden +0.3 Biden +1.6
MI Avg Biden 7.9 (-0.1) Biden +0.1 Biden +0.5
MN avg Biden 9.2 (+0.4) Biden +0.3 Biden -1.9
MO avg Trump 6.0 (-0.1) Trump +0.3 Trump +0.5
MT avg Trump 8.3 (+0.2) Trump -0.5 Trump -2.4
NV avg Biden 6.4 (-0.5) Biden -0.3 Biden -0.3
NH Avg Biden 11.3 (+0.5) Biden +1.4 Biden +3.8
NC avg Biden 3.3 (-0.1) Biden +0.7 Biden +1.1
OH avg Biden 0.1 (-0.1) Biden -0.7 Biden -2.0
PA Avg Biden 7.1 (0) Biden +0.1 Biden +0.3
SC avg Trump 7.1 (+0.1) Trump +1.7 Trump +0.5
TX avg Trump 1.3 (-0.2) Trump +0.3 Trump +1.3
WI Avg Biden +7.9 (+0.3) Biden +0.9 Biden +0.8
Trump Approval 43.4 (-0.2) 0.2 3.2
Trump Disapproval 53.7 (+0.6) 0.3 -2
Favorability Biden 18.2 (0) Biden 0 Biden +6.5
Direction of the Country -31.5 (0) 6.2 14
Generic Ballot Dem 6.6 (0) Dem 0 Dem -2
Betting Markets Biden 65.1 (-0.9) Biden +0.8 Biden +4.4
Clinton vs. Trump 2016 GE Clinton +3    
Biden vs Clinton GE Polls Biden +7.6    

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35 minutes ago, Wiw said:

Aha! You thought I'd pick that last one for #4? The joke's on you!

I'm surprised you didn't add "Now we're all going to die!" at the end of this.

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The phenomenon of Trump supporters not telling pollsters who they intend to vote for is an interesting one. It's difficult to get a robust statistical data set on this (I've linked to a survey indicating this is a significant % before), but I have now read many Trump supporters say they hang up on pollsters (perhaps because they view them as partisan operators) or they tell them the wrong answer (it seems because they think it is funny).

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"Trump is way down in the polls and the EC map is moving out of his direction"

Yes, but he's +0.3% compared to 2016 in battleground polls.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states-2020-vs-2016/

So it comes back to how accurate the battleground polls are. 2016 accurate? Then this is currently a close race.

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11 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

"Trump is way down in the polls and the EC map is moving out of his direction"

Yes, but he's +0.3% compared to 2016 in battleground polls.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states-2020-vs-2016/

So it comes back to how accurate the battleground polls are. 2016 accurate? Then this is currently a close race.

Except Clinton's lead in battleground polls was a lot less stable than Biden's. On election day 2016, Clinton was only ahead 1.1% in top battleground polls. Biden is currently ahead 4.9% and has never been ahead by less than 2%. If the numbers hold up (which I suspect they will, changing at most by 1%), Biden would be +3.8% compared to 2016 in battleground polls. 

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Primaries results -> Trump (this is where you get Norpoth's 91% Trump prediction).

Enthusiasm -> Trump.

Partisan registration data -> Trump.

Economic data -> Trump (no incumbent has lost while employment numbers are improving).

Better off than 4 years ago -> Trump (Biden recently told the 56% of Americans who said this according to a recent poll to not vote for him).

Battleground ave. vs. 2016 -> Trump (currently +0.3%, of course this can change rapidly).

Yard signage in key regions -> Trump (anecdotal, but from people driving across large regions of battleground states and keeping track).

Public polls -> Biden (but similar to Hillary in 2016).

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2 minutes ago, superezione said:

Clinton's lead in battleground polls was a lot less stable than Biden's

This is an important point. But also worth noting Clinton held battleground ave. lead the entire year (as far as I can tell from the RCP page), albeit fluctuating from 7% to 1.5% at various points.

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1 hour ago, admin_270 said:

Primaries results -> Trump (this is where you get Norpoth's 91% Trump prediction).

Enthusiasm -> Trump.

Partisan registration data -> Trump.

Economic data -> Trump (no incumbent has lost while employment numbers are improving).

Better off than 4 years ago -> Trump (Biden recently told the 56% of Americans who said this according to a recent poll to not vote for him).

Battleground ave. vs. 2016 -> Trump (currently +0.3%, of course this can change rapidly).

Yard signage in key regions -> Trump (anecdotal, but from people driving across large regions of battleground states and keeping track).

Public polls -> Biden (but similar to Hillary in 2016).

Where are you getting this better off 4 years ago data? 

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12 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

That's kind of shocking. I wonder if the number that say they are "much worse off" has also increased, however. 

One thing you didn't bring up in your list of factors that look good or bad for Trump is his approval/disapproval rating. One would assume, giving the supposed positives that you present, that he wouldn't have a net -10.4 approval/disapproval rating. This actually correlates with Biden current margin of popular vote victory now that I type this out. 

What do you think Biden's approval would be if he were the incumbent and you were seeing the same things you see for Trump but for Biden?

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1 hour ago, admin_270 said:

Yard signage in key regions -> Trump (anecdotal, but from people driving across large regions of battleground states and keeping track).

Yes NY isn't a key/battleground state and no I don't care, however from my experience in my region of NY (by that I mean the county right next to mine because red stronghold here, nothing surprising) Trump still seems to have a lot more enthusiasm than Biden in terms of signage in general. I've seen like 5 pro-Biden signs/flags/pretty much anything while on multiple trips to anything from places like Albany and Buffalo to miniature places like Margaretville. Some of these places are Red, some are blue.

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2 hours ago, Hestia11 said:

To be fair a lot of people hang up on polls :P 

never been polled but don't you have to submit a lot of personal info to pollsters over the phone? Demographic, age, race, gender, ... possibly full name? 

 

In that case I see why so many people don't want it publicly known. Not believing the polls whatsoever. 

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2 hours ago, admin_270 said:

Primaries results -> Trump (this is where you get Norpoth's 91% Trump prediction).

Enthusiasm -> Trump.

Partisan registration data -> Trump.

Economic data -> Trump (no incumbent has lost while employment numbers are improving).

Better off than 4 years ago -> Trump (Biden recently told the 56% of Americans who said this according to a recent poll to not vote for him).

Battleground ave. vs. 2016 -> Trump (currently +0.3%, of course this can change rapidly).

Yard signage in key regions -> Trump (anecdotal, but from people driving across large regions of battleground states and keeping track).

Public polls -> Biden (but similar to Hillary in 2016).

 

2 hours ago, Hestia11 said:

To be fair a lot of people hang up on polls :P 

 

1 hour ago, vcczar said:

That's kind of shocking. I wonder if the number that say they are "much worse off" has also increased, however. 

Maybe people who are worse off also "hang up on polls"? 

Hard to answer the phone if you're suffering from COVID-19 -- or, for that matter, if your phone was turned off because you couldn't afford it due to unemployment, etc.

Gallup also has "Satisfaction with the way things are going in the US" has fallen to just 20% (compared to 45% right before COVID hit).  Democrat satisfaction is at 6%, the lowest it's been since right before the 2008 Presidential election.  Republican satisfaction is at 39%...down from 80% before COVID.  Independents is at 18%, the lowest since 2016.  Top concerns are split pretty evenly between "The Government/Poor Leadership" (21%), "Coronavirus/Diseases" (20%), "Race Relations/Racism" (19%), and "Economy/Jobs/Income Gap Between Rich and Poor" at 16%.

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1 minute ago, PoliticalPundit said:

never been polled but don't you have to submit a lot of personal info to pollsters over the phone? Demographic, age, race, gender, ... possibly full name? 

 

In that case I see why so many people don't want it publicly known. Not believing the polls whatsoever. 

My wife has been polled for political questions many times, somehow.  I got polled once -- they called me on my wife's cell phone number, asking for me.

They do ask for demographics, but I don't really consider that to be personal information.  You can tell my race and gender by looking at me, and my age isn't some dark secret.  As for name, they ask for you BY name when they call.  So they already have that.

 

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