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Congressional Districts Winners Extrapolation Definitive Edition


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I needed to restart everything and doing retrotesting in past elections, with more focus in 2016. Now its much better. I will show all percentages forecast, I followed @vcczar advice about third parties, and now the forecast is only about the main parties, together they need to have 100% everywhere. I discovered that Trump will do better than expected in his best places and will do worse in his worst places. Extreme polarization can change everything, but we will only discover the effects when I finish all states.

I will do all states by alphabetic order.
Alabama to start. Will be red. Trump 61.6% , Biden 38.4%

Trump vs Biden

Autauga 72.9 27.1
Baldwin 76.0 24.0
Barbour 50.2 49.8
Bibb 73.0 27.0
Blount 86.0 14.0
Bullock 24.1 75.9
Butler 55.1 44.9
Calhoun 66.2 33.8
Chambers 54.3 45.7
Cherokee 78.1 21.9
Chilton 78.8 21.2
Choctaw 53.0 47.0
Clarke 54.6 45.4
Clay 74.0 26.0
Cleburne 83.4 16.6
Coffee 74.2 25.8
Colbert 61.5 38.5
Conecuh 50.2 49.8
Coosa 59.3 40.7
Covington 79.0 21.0
Crenshaw 68.3 31.7
Cullman 84.0 16.0
Dale 72.0 28.0
Dallas 31.2 68.8
DeKalb 78.1 21.9
Elmore 74.2 25.8
Escambia 64.6 35.4
Etowah 69.2 30.8
Fayette 76.3 23.7
Franklin 72.3 27.7
Geneva 81.2 18.8
Greene 15.0 85.0
Hale 37.9 62.1
Henry 65.5 34.5
Houston 70.7 29.3
Jackson 73.1 26.9
Jefferson 47.0 53.0
Lamar 77.7 22.3
Lauderdale 66.0 34.0
Lawrence 66.0 34.0
Lee 59.8 40.2
Limestone 70.6 29.4
Lowndes 24.1 75.9
Macon 12.3 87.7
Madison 57.3 42.7
Marengo 47.0 53.0
Marion 81.6 18.4
Marshall 79.4 20.6
Mobile 54.7 45.3
Monroe 55.3 44.7
Montgomery 38.6 61.4
Morgan 71.7 28.3
Perry 25.6 74.4
Pickens 54.3 45.7
Pike 58.0 42.0
Randolph 70.6 29.4
Russell 45.9 54.1
St. Clair 75.9 24.1
Shelby 81.0 19.0
Sumter 23.3 76.7
Talladega 59.1 40.9
Tallapoosa 67.2 32.8
Tuscaloosa 58.1 41.9
Walker 76.7 23.3
Washington 65.5 34.5
Wilcox 27.0 73.0
Winston 85.4 14.6

 

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obs... Alaska result is 54.9% Trump, 45.1% Biden and not what is shown. Alaska Trump
image.thumb.png.e19fb2811e69aae99692c2e624750ed5.png
Arizona Biden
 50.6% vs Trump 49.4%

Trump vs Biden

Apache 29.3 70.7
Cochise 56.4 43.6
Coconino 36.8 63.2
Gila 59.6 40.4
Graham 65.7 34.3
Greenlee 55.4 44.6
La Paz 62.7 37.3
Maricopa 50.1 49.9
Mohave 67.3 32.7
Navajo 50.3 49.7
Pima 41.0 59.0
Pinal 53.9 46.1
Santa Cruz 26.8 73.2
Yavapai 59.9 40.1
Yuma 50.4 49.6




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Askansas Trump 66.5% Biden 33.5%
 

Arkansas 66.7 33.3
Ashley 68.8 31.2
Baxter 75.7 24.3
Benton 73.0 27.0
Boone 78.2 21.8
Bradley 63.3 36.7
Calhoun 71.9 28.1
Carroll 67.2 32.8
Chicot 45.2 54.8
Clark 57.3 42.7
Clay 72.1 27.9
Cleburne 79.9 20.1
Cleveland 76.7 23.3
Columbia 66.5 33.5
Conway 65.0 35.0
Craighead 68.9 31.1
Crawford 78.2 21.8
Crittenden 49.2 50.8
Cross 69.3 30.7
Dallas 59.7 40.3
Desha 49.0 51.0
Drew 64.4 35.6
Faulkner 68.8 31.2
Franklin 76.7 23.3
Fulton 72.8 27.2
Garland 68.5 31.5
Grant 79.7 20.3
Greene 74.9 25.1
Hempstead 66.1 33.9
Hot Spring 70.3 29.7
Howard 69.8 30.2
Independence 76.0 24.0
Izard 75.3 24.7
Jackson 65.9 34.1
Jefferson 40.8 59.2
Johnson 69.7 30.3
Lafayette 64.4 35.6
Lawrence 73.2 26.8
Lee 44.3 55.7
Lincoln 65.9 34.1
Little River 71.8 28.2
Logan 75.6 24.4
Lonoke 78.0 22.0
Madison 72.9 27.1
Marion 75.3 24.7
Miller 72.8 27.2
Mississippi 56.8 43.2
Monroe 55.9 44.1
Montgomery 75.9 24.1
Nevada 64.4 35.6
Newton 76.9 23.1
Ouachita 59.5 40.5
Perry 72.9 27.1
Phillips 40.0 60.0
Pike 79.9 20.1
Poinsett 72.8 27.2
Polk 81.8 18.2
Pope 76.6 23.4
Prairie 74.4 25.6
Pulaski 48.5 51.5
Randolph 71.8 28.2
Saint Francis 53.3 46.7
Saline 74.7 25.3
Scott 79.3 20.7
Searcy 79.6 20.4
Sebastian 72.7 27.3
Sevier 75.3 24.7
Sharp 73.5 26.5
Stone 76.2 23.8
Union 67.4 32.6
Van Buren 75.2 24.8
Washington 61.7 38.3
White 79.4 20.6
Woodruff 54.3 45.7
Yell 73.9 26.1

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Michigan Biden 52.4% Trump 47.6%
image.png.bafa2b0983b103b1d8a1f073be6c8ddb.png

 

 

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I decided making it County by County, because I created a fast mass calculator. I tested in past Michigan elections, only wrong in 2004 from 2000 to 2016 (Predicted Bush winning). I know that the Michigan result sounds as a scandal, and maybe I need to nerf GOP in the model (it gives 1.5% advantage for Trump in 2016 and 0.3% for Bush 2004), but its the actual prediction, county by county, we have other perspective. Anyway, seems that pollsters are making the same errors of 2016 in Rust Belt States. Because the GOP overpowered, I buffed DEMS in 1% and GOP in 1% to emulate better the results expected in 2020 (nerf for Trump in 2016 gives him losing by 0.5% and Bush losing in 2004 by 1.7%.

Truly Gop counties will be right in >95% of cases, safe >90%, Likely > 85%, Leans > 80%, Tilt >50%, Tilt Dem orange is a mistake, its Tilt GOP in reality.

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The model makes a better job than what I was thinking. Alabama 2016 counties, all winners right except Jefferson and Marengo, both won by dems. I will update the % of being right in every county. The big problem of the model is being much pro gop, I need to adjust it, but its hard, because if I buff more the Dems, Trump loses in 2016.
 

Autauga 76.2 23.8
Baldwin 78.8 21.2
Barbour 54.2 45.8
Bibb 74.5 25.5
Blount 86.1 13.9
Bullock 30.2 69.8
Butler 59.8 40.2
Calhoun 68.5 31.5
Chambers 58.4 41.6
Cherokee 76.7 23.3
Chilton 80.1 19.9
Choctaw 56.6 43.4
Clarke 60.2 39.8
Clay 74.5 25.5
Cleburne 82.7 17.3
Coffee 76.0 24.0
Colbert 61.7 38.3
Conecuh 54.9 45.1
Coosa 61.5 38.5
Covington 79.7 20.3
Crenshaw 70.4 29.6
Cullman 83.8 16.2
Dale 74.8 25.2
Dallas 38.5 61.5
DeKalb 76.9 23.1
Elmore 77.4 22.6
Escambia 67.8 32.2
Etowah 70.0 30.0
Fayette 76.0 24.0
Franklin 70.5 29.5
Geneva 81.9 18.1
Greene 19.1 80.9
Hale 43.1 56.9
Henry 67.7 32.3
Houston 74.2 25.8
Jackson 69.9 30.1
Jefferson 54.0 46.0
Lamar 77.0 23.0
Lauderdale 66.3 33.7
Lawrence 64.5 35.5
Lee 64.6 35.4
Limestone 72.6 27.4
Lowndes 28.7 71.3
Macon 14.5 85.5
Madison 62.1 37.9
Marengo 52.7 47.3
Marion 79.5 20.5
Marshall 79.4 20.6
Mobile 60.1 39.9
Monroe 60.8 39.2
Montgomery 47.3 52.7
Morgan 73.3 26.7
Perry 31.2 68.8
Pickens 58.0 42.0
Pike 62.7 37.3
Randolph 71.5 28.5
Russell 49.9 50.1
St. Clair 80.5 19.5
Shelby 82.9 17.1
Sumter 28.4 71.6
Talladega 62.5 37.5
Tallapoosa 70.0 30.0
Tuscaloosa 62.9 37.1
Walker 75.6 24.4
Washington 66.7 33.3
Wilcox 32.7 67.3
Winston 84.2 15.8
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I made a fatal error in Michigan and Alabama 2020 calculations, I was putting 1992+1996+2000+2004 DEM results as 2004+2008+2012+2016 DEM results, now things make more sense, Michigan Dems 52.4%, GOP 47.6% (+4.8% DEM), I will not remake the map for now, but will do it later. Alabama is 63.7 vs 36.3, will update only the state results.

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Model had big issues, was good predicting Congressional Districts, that have all similar population, but lacked something in county level, and was badly tested in counties. Because that I added a variable that helps Dems in urban counties and prejudices in rural areas. Radical changes (maybe more radical than needed)..., for example , Maricopa in Arizona, changed from GOP to DEM, but I think much more than what i Expect. Works well in all elections since 1976, except 2008, when McCain wins the state in the model by mere 0.2%, and in 1992, the Bush advantage is very small too.
image.png.078042415089e67eeb932af0f9926804.png

 

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California Results, easy Biden victory, 68.7% vs 31.3% Trump, a so big advantage that means that Trump will have better results than expected in most states. I will adjust the state results in the end to reflect the national polls.
I would like a collaboration with someone to coloring the counties in a state map. If somebody offers to do it, I can calculate everything in 3/4 days. If not, only in 1 week, i can complete with every county color. 
 

Alameda 13 87
Alpine 44 56
Amador 61 39
Butte 50 50
Calaveras 60 40
Colusa 59 41
Contra Costa 26 74
Del Norte 58 42
El Dorado 55 45
Fresno 45 55
Glenn 63 37
Humboldt 36 64
Imperial 32 68
Inyo 58 42
Kern 53 47
Kings 56 44
Lake 47 53
Lassen 71 29
Los Angeles 17 83
Madera 57 43
Marin 19 81
Mariposa 61 39
Mendocino 33 67
Merced 44 56
Modoc 71 29
Mono 47 53
Monterey 29 71
Napa 34 66
Nevada 48 52
Orange 42 58
Placer 54 46
Plumas 60 40
Riverside 43 57
Sacramento 34 66
San Benito 41 59
San Bernardino 41 59
San Diego 36 64
San Francisco 8 92
San Joaquin 41 59
San Luis Obispo 46 54
San Mateo 20 80
Santa Barbara 36 64
Santa Clara 21 79
Santa Cruz 20 80
Shasta 63 37
Sierra 63 37
Siskiyou 59 41
Solano 34 66
Sonoma 24 76
Stanislaus 47 53
Sutter 57 43
Tehama 65 35
Trinity 55 45
Tulare 54 46
Tuolumne 59 41
Ventura 40 60
Yolo 30 70
Yuba 60 40
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Colorado results, a not so easy victory for Biden (+6.8%), 53.4% vs 46.6% Trump
 

Adams 42 58
Alamosa 48 52
Arapahoe 41 59
Archuleta 61 39
Baca 78 22
Bent 64 36
Boulder 25 75
Broomfield 45 55
Chaffee 53 47
Cheyenne 81 19
Clear Creek 49 51
Conejos 52 48
Costilla 36 64
Crowley 70 30
Custer 69 31
Delta 69 31
Denver 20 80
Dolores 74 26
Douglas 57 43
Eagle 42 58
El Paso 56 44
Elbert 72 28
Fremont 68 32
Garfield 54 46
Gilpin 49 51
Grand 57 43
Gunnison 43 57
Hinsdale 64 36
Huerfano 53 47
Jackson 74 26
Jefferson 43 57
Kiowa 82 18
Kit Carson 77 23
La Plata 46 54
Lake 45 55
Larimer 45 55
Las Animas 56 44
Lincoln 76 24
Logan 72 28
Mesa 64 36
Mineral 60 40
Moffat 77 23
Montezuma 63 37
Montrose 68 32
Morgan 66 34
Otero 60 40
Ouray 49 51
Park 61 39
Phillips 75 25
Pitkin 32 68
Prowers 70 30
Pueblo 47 53
Rio Blanco 79 21
Rio Grande 59 41
Routt 44 56
Saguache 45 55
San Juan 50 50
San Miguel 32 68
Sedgwick 90 10
Summit 81 19
Teller 90 10
Washington 92 8
Weld 87 13
Yuma 91 9
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North Carolina, Trump 50.4 (+0.8%), Biden 49.6%

 

Alamance 55.07 44.93
Alexander 72.07 27.93
Alleghany 70.05 29.95
Anson 44.87 55.13
Ashe 68.09 31.91
Avery 73.51 26.49
Beaufort 60.44 39.56
Bertie 40.24 59.76
Bladen 54.24 45.76
Brunswick 60.79 39.21
Buncombe 42.14 57.86
Burke 64.13 35.87
Cabarrus 57.34 42.66
Caldwell 68.63 31.37
Camden 69.71 30.29
Carteret 67.98 32.02
Caswell 55.51 44.49
Catawba 63.72 36.28
Chatham 47.01 52.99
Cherokee 72.90 27.10
Chowan 56.94 43.06
Clay 72.02 27.98
Cleveland 61.56 38.44
Columbus 58.79 41.21
Craven 58.63 41.37
Cumberland 40.54 59.46
Currituck 69.73 30.27
Dare 59.45 40.55
Davidson 67.91 32.09
Davie 69.61 30.39
Duplin 58.26 41.74
Durham 20.24 79.76
Edgecombe 36.01 63.99
Forsyth 43.65 56.35
Franklin 54.55 45.45
Gaston 61.32 38.68
Gates 54.93 45.07
Graham 74.23 25.77
Granville 51.01 48.99
Greene 56.16 43.84
Guilford 38.72 61.28
Halifax 38.42 61.58
Harnett 59.37 40.63
Haywood 60.19 39.81
Henderson 61.35 38.65
Hertford 33.83 66.17
Hoke 45.06 54.94
Hyde 57.39 42.61
Iredell 63.33 36.67
Jackson 54.54 45.46
Johnston 61.42 38.58
Jones 59.02 40.98
Lee 55.98 44.02
Lenoir 52.51 47.49
Lincoln 68.44 31.56
Macon 66.57 33.43
Madison 59.93 40.07
Martin 51.63 48.37
McDowell 68.70 31.30
Mecklenburg 33.20 66.80
Mitchell 74.19 25.81
Montgomery 61.26 38.74
Moore 62.12 37.88
Nash 50.15 49.85
New Hanover 50.66 49.34
Northampton 39.65 60.35
Onslow 62.60 37.40
Orange 26.74 73.26
Pamlico 62.55 37.45
Pasquotank 48.47 51.53
Pender 62.03 37.97
Perquimans 62.28 37.72
Person 57.65 42.35
Pitt 46.04 53.96
Polk 62.82 37.18
Randolph 71.30 28.70
Richmond 54.15 45.85
Robeson 48.93 51.07
Rockingham 61.41 38.59
Rowan 63.03 36.97
Rutherford 68.10 31.90
Sampson 57.40 42.60
Scotland 47.33 52.67
Stanly 69.53 30.47
Stokes 71.40 28.60
Surry 68.86 31.14
Swain 59.60 40.40
Transylvania 59.92 40.08
Tyrrell 58.47 41.53
Union 61.48 38.52
Vance 39.78 60.22
Wake 37.73 62.27
Warren 36.74 63.26
Washington 45.73 54.27
Watauga 50.73 49.27
Wayne 54.41 45.59
Wilkes 70.95 29.05
Wilson 48.04 51.96
Yadkin 74.06 25.94
Yancey 62.72 37.28
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Texas Trump 52.9% (+5.8%) , Biden 47.1% 
 

     
Anderson 73.80 26.20
Andrews 77.16 22.84
Angelina 69.58 30.42
Aransas 71.07 28.93
Archer 83.04 16.96
Armstrong 86.00 14.00
Atascosa 61.80 38.20
Austin 75.59 24.41
Bailey 73.33 26.67
Bandera 76.08 23.92
Bastrop 58.93 41.07
Baylor 80.91 19.09
Bee 58.40 41.60
Bell 55.25 44.75
Bexar 40.84 59.16
Blanco 72.99 27.01
Borden 86.38 13.62
Bosque 77.34 22.66
Bowie 69.22 30.78
Brazoria 60.59 39.41
Brazos 61.28 38.72
Brewster 54.93 45.07
Briscoe 81.09 18.91
Brooks 28.42 71.58
Brown 80.28 19.72
Burleson 73.23 26.77
Burnet 73.68 26.32
Caldwell 57.91 42.09
Calhoun 65.74 34.26
Callahan 81.62 18.38
Cameron 33.88 66.12
Camp 68.94 31.06
Carson 84.37 15.63
Cass 74.45 25.55
Castro 70.42 29.58
Chambers 76.04 23.96
Cherokee 73.23 26.77
Childress 81.23 18.77
Clay 81.64 18.36
Cochran 73.73 26.27
Coke 83.15 16.85
Coleman 82.48 17.52
Collin 55.83 44.17
Collingsworth 81.68 18.32
Colorado 72.29 27.71
Comal 70.47 29.53
Comanche 78.39 21.61
Concho 79.48 20.52
Cooke 78.27 21.73
Coryell 66.76 33.24
Cottle 78.25 21.75
Crane 74.69 25.31
Crockett 69.52 30.48
Crosby 67.94 32.06
Culberson 41.58 58.42
Dallam 79.61 20.39
Dallas 34.62 65.38
Dawson 72.00 28.00
Deaf Smith 69.28 30.72
Delta 76.88 23.12
Denton 57.09 42.91
Dewitt 76.15 23.85
Dickens 79.09 20.91
Dimmit 34.16 65.84
Donley 81.26 18.74
Duval 34.04 65.96
Eastland 81.05 18.95
Ector 68.31 31.69
Edwards 70.39 29.61
Ellis 53.23 46.77
El Paso 47.20 52.80
Erath 77.75 22.25
Falls 65.39 34.61
Fannin 75.13 24.87
Fayette 74.70 25.30
Fisher 71.48 28.52
Floyd 73.08 26.92
Foard 73.77 26.23
Fort Bend 46.70 53.30
Franklin 78.58 21.42
Freestone 74.61 25.39
Frio 45.64 54.36
Gaines 80.64 19.36
Galveston 59.85 40.15
Garza 78.94 21.06
Gillespie 76.59 23.41
Glasscock 88.32 11.68
Goliad 69.37 30.63
Gonzales 70.24 29.76
Gray 82.56 17.44
Grayson 70.85 29.15
Gregg 66.99 33.01
Grimes 71.76 28.24
Guadalupe 63.25 36.75
Hale 71.16 28.84
Hall 78.22 21.78
Hamilton 79.90 20.10
Hansford 84.96 15.04
Hardeman 78.26 21.74
Hardin 79.62 20.38
Harris 40.11 59.89
Harrison 67.78 32.22
Hartley 84.77 15.23
Haskell 75.27 24.73
Hays 51.25 48.75
Hemphill 82.86 17.14
Henderson 74.04 25.96
Hidalgo 28.19 71.81
Hill 74.17 25.83
Hockley 75.84 24.16
Hood 76.98 23.02
Hopkins 75.06 24.94
Houston 71.79 28.21
Howard 73.74 26.26
Hudspeth 60.33 39.67
Hunt 72.40 27.60
Hutchinson 81.58 18.42
Irion 82.06 17.94
Jack 83.99 16.01
Jackson 76.63 23.37
Jasper 74.18 25.82
Jeff Davis 63.48 36.52
Jefferson 49.78 50.22
Jim Hogg 26.77 73.23
Jim Wells 46.58 53.42
Johnson 72.96 27.04
Jones 76.84 23.16
Karnes 68.90 31.10
Kaufman 68.99 31.01
Kendall 75.50 24.50
Kenedy 53.41 46.59
Kent 81.24 18.76
Kerr 73.78 26.22
Kimble 83.02 16.98
King 98.00 2.00
Kinney 65.85 34.15
Kleberg 49.75 50.25
Knox 77.03 22.97
Lamar 73.75 26.25
Lamb 74.56 25.44
Lampasas 75.58 24.42
LaSalle 47.40 52.60
Lavaca 79.24 20.76
Lee 73.23 26.77
Leon 80.60 19.40
Liberty 73.70 26.30
Limestone 71.67 28.33
Lipscomb 84.01 15.99
Live Oak 76.47 23.53
Llano 76.40 23.60
Loving 85.98 14.02
Lubbock 64.90 35.10
Lynn 74.10 25.90
Madison 74.31 25.69
Marion 67.94 32.06
Martin 79.84 20.16
Mason 78.03 21.97
Matagorda 67.85 32.15
Maverick 22.30 77.70
McCulloch 78.51 21.49
McLennan 61.24 38.76
McMullen 84.44 15.56
Medina 68.38 31.62
Menard 77.63 22.37
Midland 72.89 27.11
Milam 70.21 29.79
Mills 82.49 17.51
Mitchell 77.25 22.75
Montague 81.41 18.59
Montgomery 69.96 30.04
Moore 74.92 25.08
Morris 67.78 32.22
Motley 87.14 12.86
Nacogdoches 65.80 34.20
Navarro 70.27 29.73
Newton 73.46 26.54
Nolan 72.75 27.25
Nueces 50.09 49.91
Ochiltree 82.53 17.47
Oldham 86.01 13.99
Orange 74.80 25.20
Palo Pinto 76.84 23.16
Panola 76.20 23.80
Parker 76.43 23.57
Parmer 75.38 24.62
Pecos 61.73 38.27
Polk 72.55 27.45
Potter 68.25 31.75
Presidio 35.04 64.96
Rains 79.26 20.74
Randall 76.10 23.90
Reagan 77.35 22.65
Real 78.76 21.24
Red River 72.79 27.21
Reeves 48.72 51.28
Refugio 63.75 36.25
Roberts 97.00 3.00
Robertson 65.37 34.63
Rockwall 70.08 29.92
Runnels 81.30 18.70
Rusk 73.20 26.80
Sabine 80.15 19.85
San Augustine 70.59 29.41
San Jacinto 73.94 26.06
San Patricio 60.67 39.33
San Saba 81.44 18.56
Schleicher 76.37 23.63
Scurry 79.14 20.86
Shackelford 85.92 14.08
Shelby 74.56 25.44
Sherman 83.20 16.80
Smith 67.31 32.69
Somervell 79.21 20.79
Starr 19.97 80.03
Stephens 82.38 17.62
Sterling 84.52 15.48
Stonewall 76.76 23.24
Sutton 74.03 25.97
Swisher 73.94 26.06
Tarrant 50.05 49.95
Taylor 70.95 29.05
Terrell 67.93 32.07
Terry 71.28 28.72
Throckmorton 83.41 16.59
Titus 68.89 31.11
Tom Green 69.68 30.32
Travis 29.62 70.38
Trinity 74.49 25.51
Tyler 77.16 22.84
Upshur 77.24 22.76
Upton 73.42 26.58
Uvalde 56.23 43.77
Val Verde 47.99 52.01
Van Zandt 78.71 21.29
Victoria 66.69 33.31
Walker 64.91 35.09
Waller 61.69 38.31
Ward 72.97 27.03
Washington 72.19 27.81
Webb 24.56 75.44
Wharton 67.97 32.03
Wheeler 84.65 15.35
Wichita 70.19 29.81
Wilbarger 74.66 25.34
Willacy 34.19 65.81
Williamson 53.45 46.55
Wilson 69.74 30.26
Winkler 74.06 25.94
Wise 78.30 21.70
Wood 78.05 21.95
Yoakum 76.38 23.62
Young 81.19 18.81
Zapata 36.40 63.60
Zavala 23.69 76.31
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Georgia Trump 52.4% Biden 47.6% (Trump+4.8%)
 

Appling 74.32 25.68
Atkinson 70.09 29.91
Bacon 78.54 21.46
Baker 56.75 43.25
Baldwin 50.38 49.62
Banks 82.50 17.50
Barrow 71.01 28.99
Bartow 72.09 27.91
Ben Hill 62.15 37.85
Berrien 77.70 22.30
Bibb 40.78 59.22
Bleckley 73.26 26.74
Brantley 81.71 18.29
Brooks 58.94 41.06
Bryan 69.23 30.77
Bulloch 60.15 39.85
Burke 49.93 50.07
Butts 68.77 31.23
Calhoun 46.01 53.99
Camden 64.25 35.75
Candler 69.28 30.72
Carroll 66.25 33.75
Catoosa 74.22 25.78
Charlton 70.52 29.48
Chatham 42.71 57.29
Chattahoochee 56.91 43.09
Chattooga 73.33 26.67
Cherokee 70.12 29.88
Clarke 34.05 65.95
Clay 48.05 51.95
Clayton 13.82 86.18
Clinch 68.53 31.47
Cobb 48.22 51.78
Coffee 66.32 33.68
Colquitt 69.68 30.32
Columbia 65.93 34.07
Cook 67.81 32.19
Coweta 67.27 32.73
Crawford 68.70 31.30
Crisp 60.70 39.30
Dade 76.62 23.38
Dawson 80.61 19.39
Decatur 59.06 40.94
DeKalb 16.62 83.38
Dodge 69.71 30.29
Dooly 53.09 46.91
Dougherty 32.99 67.01
Douglas 46.02 53.98
Early 54.29 45.71
Echols 81.61 18.39
Effingham 72.68 27.32
Elbert 64.52 35.48
Emanuel 66.12 33.88
Evans 66.57 33.43
Fannin 76.80 23.20
Fayette 59.79 40.21
Floyd 68.06 31.94
Forsyth 70.10 29.90
Franklin 78.17 21.83
Fulton 28.54 71.46
Gilmer 77.65 22.35
Glascock 83.60 16.40
Glynn 62.17 37.83
Gordon 75.83 24.17
Grady 65.03 34.97
Greene 62.59 37.41
Gwinnett 46.56 53.44
Habersham 77.96 22.04
Hall 70.73 29.27
Hancock 27.49 72.51
Haralson 79.15 20.85
Harris 70.59 29.41
Hart 70.07 29.93
Heard 76.47 23.53
Henry 48.11 51.89
Houston 58.73 41.27
Irwin 71.25 28.75
Jackson 76.12 23.88
Jasper 70.22 29.78
Jeff Davis 75.84 24.16
Jefferson 47.04 52.96
Jenkins 62.02 37.98
Johnson 67.63 32.37
Jones 65.34 34.66
Lamar 67.14 32.86
Lanier 67.49 32.51
Laurens 62.56 37.44
Lee 72.56 27.44
Liberty 40.08 59.92
Lincoln 66.56 33.44
Long 64.43 35.57
Lowndes 56.73 43.27
Lumpkin 75.86 24.14
McDuffie 40.97 59.03
McIntosh 73.15 26.85
Macon 60.22 39.78
Madison 59.88 40.12
Marion 59.66 40.34
Meriwether 57.52 42.48
Miller 71.61 28.39
Mitchell 55.62 44.38
Monroe 68.15 31.85
Montgomery 72.12 27.88
Morgan 68.42 31.58
Murray 76.56 23.44
Muscogee 40.79 59.21
Newton 48.97 51.03
Oconee 68.87 31.13
Oglethorpe 68.90 31.10
Paulding 66.56 33.44
Peach 51.63 48.37
Pickens 78.82 21.18
Pierce 80.22 19.78
Pike 79.07 20.93
Polk 73.08 26.92
Pulaski 67.88 32.12
Putnam 68.05 31.95
Quitman 56.26 43.74
Rabun 75.92 24.08
Randolph 47.94 52.06
Richmond 34.30 65.70
Rockdale 40.19 59.81
Schley 74.78 25.22
Screven 58.74 41.26
Seminole 64.55 35.45
Spalding 60.59 39.41
Stephens 75.13 24.87
Stewart 43.91 56.09
Sumter 50.43 49.57
Talbot 41.73 58.27
Taliaferro 43.48 56.52
Tattnall 71.26 28.74
Taylor 61.09 38.91
Telfair 63.41 36.59
Terrell 48.02 51.98
Thomas 60.13 39.87
Tift 66.22 33.78
Toombs 70.14 29.86
Towns 76.50 23.50
Treutlen 65.81 34.19
Troup 59.88 40.12
Turner 62.13 37.87
Twiggs 52.46 47.54
Union 76.96 23.04
Upson 65.56 34.44
Walker 74.15 25.85
Walton 72.74 27.26
Ware 67.73 32.27
Warren 46.57 53.43
Washington 51.21 48.79
Wayne 73.99 26.01
Webster 58.82 41.18
Wheeler 67.69 32.31
White 78.69 21.31
Whitfield 68.90 31.10
Wilcox 69.08 30.92
Wilkes 59.27 40.73
Wilkinson 56.43 43.57
Worth 70.95 29.05
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Ohio Trump 50.4% Biden 49.6% (Trump+0.8%)
 

Adams 69.92 30.08
Allen 63.50 36.50
Ashland 67.75 32.25
Ashtabula 53.38 46.62
Athens 39.76 60.24
Auglaize 73.75 26.25
Belmont 62.47 37.53
Brown 68.33 31.67
Butler 59.40 40.60
Carroll 65.65 34.35
Champaign 66.17 33.83
Clark 55.48 44.52
Clermont 65.07 34.93
Clinton 69.64 30.36
Columbiana 63.08 36.92
Coshocton 64.07 35.93
Crawford 66.54 33.46
Cuyahoga 28.26 71.74
Darke 72.91 27.09
Defiance 62.28 37.72
Delaware 56.90 43.10
Erie 51.11 48.89
Fairfield 59.06 40.94
Fayette 67.38 32.62
Franklin 33.92 66.08
Fulton 62.14 37.86
Gallia 69.93 30.07
Geauga 60.27 39.73
Greene 59.24 40.76
Guernsey 64.04 35.96
Hamilton 42.40 57.60
Hancock 64.88 35.12
Hardin 67.44 32.56
Harrison 66.79 33.21
Henry 64.34 35.66
Highland 69.85 30.15
Hocking 61.54 38.46
Holmes 75.22 24.78
Huron 61.47 38.53
Jackson 67.55 32.45
Jefferson 61.09 38.91
Knox 64.45 35.55
Lake 53.27 46.73
Lawrence 64.93 35.07
Licking 59.20 40.80
Logan 69.09 30.91
Lorain 45.97 54.03
Lucas 37.00 63.00
Madison 64.94 35.06
Mahoning 43.66 56.34
Marion 60.88 39.12
Medina 57.85 42.15
Meigs 67.93 32.07
Mercer 75.30 24.70
Miami 67.16 32.84
Monroe 65.62 34.38
Montgomery 46.97 53.03
Morgan 64.19 35.81
Morrow 67.87 32.13
Muskingum 60.58 39.42
Noble 70.13 29.87
Ottawa 55.55 44.45
Paulding 67.21 32.79
Perry 62.89 37.11
Pickaway 65.01 34.99
Pike 61.54 38.46
Portage 51.47 48.53
Preble 70.58 29.42
Putnam 74.73 25.27
Richland 62.62 37.38
Ross 58.48 41.52
Sandusky 56.03 43.97
Scioto 61.02 38.98
Seneca 59.95 40.05
Shelby 72.88 27.12
Stark 52.74 47.26
Summit 42.56 57.44
Trumbull 47.52 52.48
Tuscarawas 60.67 39.33
Union 65.07 34.93
Van Wert 71.41 28.59
Vinton 65.79 34.21
Warren 64.57 35.43
Washington 64.70 35.30
Wayne 62.24 37.76
Williams 64.56 35.44
Wood 50.76 49.24
Wyandot 66.58 33.42
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Iowa Trump 51.9% Biden 48.9% , (Trump +3.8%)
 

Adair 63.08 36.92
Adams 63.61 36.39
Allamakee 57.66 42.34
Appanoose 62.54 37.46
Audubon 61.65 38.35
Benton 58.59 41.41
Black Hawk 43.90 56.10
Boone 54.19 45.81
Bremer 54.57 45.43
Buchanan 53.51 46.49
Buena Vista 60.01 39.99
Butler 63.11 36.89
Calhoun 64.74 35.26
Carroll 60.81 39.19
Cass 65.00 35.00
Cedar 55.87 44.13
Cerro Gordo 50.72 49.28
Cherokee 65.29 34.71
Chickasaw 56.49 43.51
Clarke 60.18 39.82
Clay 65.51 34.49
Clayton 56.68 43.32
Clinton 48.45 51.55
Crawford 62.91 37.09
Dallas 54.75 45.25
Davis 66.97 33.03
Decatur 61.31 38.69
Delaware 59.57 40.43
Des Moines 50.26 49.74
Dickinson 63.86 36.14
Dubuque 47.85 52.15
Emmet 63.42 36.58
Fayette 54.82 45.18
Floyd 53.47 46.53
Franklin 62.64 37.36
Fremont 64.25 35.75
Greene 59.08 40.92
Grundy 65.71 34.29
Guthrie 62.85 37.15
Hamilton 58.66 41.34
Hancock 64.79 35.21
Hardin 60.60 39.40
Harrison 63.39 36.61
Henry 61.04 38.96
Howard 54.57 45.43
Humboldt 67.59 32.41
Ida 69.75 30.25
Iowa 59.10 40.90
Jackson 54.21 45.79
Jasper 55.15 44.85
Jefferson 49.34 50.66
Johnson 31.40 68.60
Jones 55.78 44.22
Keokuk 64.59 35.41
Kossuth 63.00 37.00
Lee 53.50 46.50
Linn 42.71 57.29
Louisa 59.88 40.12
Lucas 63.57 36.43
Lyon 76.80 23.20
Madison 62.27 37.73
Mahaska 66.49 33.51
Marion 61.43 38.57
Marshall 52.00 48.00
Mills 64.93 35.07
Mitchell 58.21 41.79
Monona 64.87 35.13
Monroe 64.81 35.19
Montgomery 66.19 33.81
Muscatine 50.04 49.96
O'Brien 73.93 26.07
Osceola 74.25 25.75
Page 66.81 33.19
Palo Alto 63.50 36.50
Plymouth 69.94 30.06
Pocahontas 67.54 32.46
Polk 41.57 58.43
Pottawattamie 56.42 43.58
Poweshiek 52.16 47.84
Ringgold 64.68 35.32
Sac 67.14 32.86
Scott 46.21 53.79
Shelby 66.18 33.82
Sioux 78.14 21.86
Story 43.65 56.35
Tama 56.09 43.91
Taylor 66.42 33.58
Union 59.02 40.98
Van Buren 67.83 32.17
Wapello 55.31 44.69
Warren 55.48 44.52
Washington 57.77 42.23
Wayne 66.59 33.41
Webster 56.24 43.76
Winnebago 58.97 41.03
Winneshiek 48.91 51.09
Woodbury 55.54 44.46
Worth 56.03 43.97
Wright 61.90 38.10
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Florida Trump 47.4% Biden 52.6% (Biden +5.2%)
 

Alachua 39.31 60.69
Baker 76.53 23.47
Bay 67.89 32.11
Bradford 70.85 29.15
Brevard 54.43 45.57
Broward 28.80 71.20
Calhoun 73.66 26.34
Charlotte 58.75 41.25
Citrus 63.34 36.66
Clay 67.08 32.92
Collier 59.72 40.28
Columbia 67.95 32.05
DeSoto 61.60 38.40
Dixie 75.24 24.76
Duval 47.21 52.79
Escambia 56.99 43.01
Flagler 56.70 43.30
Franklin 68.02 31.98
Gadsden 34.38 65.62
Gilchrist 75.60 24.40
Glades 66.02 33.98
Gulf 71.57 28.43
Hamilton 63.06 36.94
Hardee 67.29 32.71
Hendry 56.73 43.27
Hernando 58.28 41.72
Highlands 62.16 37.84
Hillsborough 42.43 57.57
Holmes 81.54 18.46
Indian River 59.46 40.54
Jackson 65.76 34.24
Jefferson 54.30 45.70
Lafayette 78.68 21.32
Lake 57.08 42.92
Lee 54.96 45.04
Leon 37.60 62.40
Levy 67.84 32.16
Liberty 74.25 25.75
Madison 57.46 42.54
Manatee 54.76 45.24
Marion 57.72 42.28
Martin 60.16 39.84
Miami-Dade 32.16 67.84
Monroe 52.38 47.62
Nassau 70.30 29.70
Okaloosa 68.48 31.52
Okeechobee 65.36 34.64
Orange 35.28 64.72
Osceola 36.85 63.15
Palm Beach 38.59 61.41
Pasco 54.41 45.59
Pinellas 45.41 54.59
Polk 52.05 47.95
Putnam 64.09 35.91
Saint Johns 68.52 31.48
Saint Lucie 49.53 50.47
Santa Rosa 56.15 43.85
Sarasota 58.37 41.63
Seminole 50.19 49.81
Sumter 65.21 34.79
Suwanee 72.15 27.85
Taylor 71.38 28.62
Union 75.55 24.45
Volusia 51.22 48.78
Wakulla 66.73 33.27
Walton 72.59 27.41
Washington 73.59 26.41
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Wisconsin Trump 47.7% Biden 52.3% (+4.6% Biden)
 

Adams 44.49 55.51
Ashland 50.25 49.75
Barron 44.78 55.22
Bayfield 50.47 49.53
Brown 45.45 54.55
Buffalo 45.97 54.03
Burnett 46.09 53.91
Calumet 46.65 53.35
Chippewa 45.49 54.51
Clark 44.19 55.81
Columbia 47.49 52.51
Crawford 47.08 52.92
Dane 52.90 47.10
Dodge 44.81 55.19
Door 48.85 51.15
Douglas 48.37 51.63
Dunn 47.07 52.93
Eau Claire 49.22 50.78
Florence 45.53 54.47
Fond du Lac 45.28 54.72
Forest 44.50 55.50
Grant 45.25 54.75
Green 48.43 51.57
Green Lake 45.67 54.33
Iowa 50.27 49.73
Iron 46.82 53.18
Jackson 46.17 53.83
Jefferson 47.04 52.96
Juneau 43.56 56.44
Kenosha 47.07 52.93
Kewaunee 45.01 54.99
La Crosse 48.85 51.15
Lafayette 46.95 53.05
Langlade 45.47 54.53
Lincoln 45.55 54.45
Manitowoc 44.75 55.25
Marathon 45.32 54.68
Marinette 42.87 57.13
Marquette 45.70 54.30
Menominee 61.83 38.17
Milwaukee 50.29 49.71
Monroe 45.23 54.77
Oconto 42.65 57.35
Oneida 46.22 53.78
Outagamie 45.33 54.67
Ozaukee 50.03 49.97
Pepin 46.61 53.39
Pierce 47.63 52.37
Polk 45.58 54.42
Portage 48.47 51.53
Price 45.41 54.59
Racine 47.31 52.69
Richland 47.38 52.62
Rock 48.05 51.95
Rusk 43.90 56.10
Sauk 48.03 51.97
Sawyer 46.52 53.48
Shawano 43.76 56.24
Sheboygan 46.64 53.36
St Croix 47.08 52.92
Taylor 43.17 56.83
Trempealeau 45.74 54.26
Vernon 47.61 52.39
Vilas 47.25 52.75
Walworth 46.46 53.54
Washburn 46.58 53.42
Washington 45.47 54.53
Waukesha 46.23 53.77
Waupaca 44.10 55.90
Waushara 44.87 55.13
Winnebago 46.01 53.99
Wood 45.28 54.72
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