State of the Race: 20 Days Left

[vcczar 1,224]

vcczar @Reagan04 @Actinguy @Patine @Conservative Elector 2 @TheMiddlePolitical @WVProgressive @SilentLiberty @pilight @admin_270 @Hestia11 @Herbert Hoover @mlcorcoran @Leuser @upandaway @jvikings1 @Rodja @Edouard @jnewt @Nentomat @Kingthero @Sunnymentoaddict @RFK/JFKfan @Mr.Blood @Zenobiyl @Wiw @MBDemSoc @ThePotatoWalrus @Alxeu @Allyn @Cenzonico @CentristGuy @Ishan @billay @wolves @RI Democrat @lizarraba @lizphairphreak @TheLiberalKitten @MysteryKnight @avatarmushi @servo75 @Mark_W

As usual, Blue trends for Biden and Red trends for Trump.

• After days of increasing, Biden's national polling lead is now dropping--from +10.6 to +10.4
• Trump jumped up almost 2 pts in SC. 
• Overall, Trump was able to nudge the numbers in more states than Biden, but this is likely because Biden had nudged them as far left as they can go recently. 
• Biden's polling in NC, WI, and FL has been getting better every day, which must be worrying for Trump.
• Trump has been polling better in OH, despite getting killed in the national polls.
• Clinton was up vs Trump only by +4 this time in 2016. 
• SC moves from Likely R to Solid R

 

Categories	20 Days Left	A Week Ago	100 Days Left
Gen Avg	Biden 10.4 (-0.2)	Biden +1.4	Biden +2.4
AK avg	Trump 4.4 (0)	Trump -0.5	Trump -0.4
AZ avg	Biden 3.7 (-0.2)	Biden -0.7	Biden +0.8
FL avg	Biden 4.6 (+0.1)	Biden +1.1	Biden -2.0
GA avg	Biden 0.6 (-0.3)	Biden -0.3	Biden +1.9
IA avg	Biden 1.1 (+0.1)	Biden +1.6	Biden +1.4
MI Avg	Biden 8.0 (0)	Biden +0.4	Biden +0.6
MN avg	Biden 8.8 (-0.4)	Biden -0.5	Biden -2.3
MO avg	Trump 6.1 (+0.6)	Trump +0.2	Trump +0.6
MT avg	Trump 8.1 (0)	Trump +0.1	Trump -2.8
NV avg	Biden 6.9 (0)	Biden +0.1	Biden +0.2
NH Avg	Biden 10.8 (0)	Biden +1.1	Biden +3.3
NC avg	Biden 3.4 (+0.5)	Biden +1.2	Biden +1.2
OH avg	Biden 0.2 (-0.5)	Biden -0.3	Biden -1.9
PA Avg	Biden 7.1 (-0.1)	Biden +0.8	Biden +0.3
SC avg	Trump 7.0 (+1.7)	Trump +1.6	Trump +0.4
TX avg	Trump 1.5 (0)	Trump +0.1	Trump +1.5
WI Avg	Biden +7.6 (+0.5)	Biden 7.0 (+0.1)	Biden +0.5
Trump Approval	43.6 (-0.1)	0.4	3.4
Trump Disapproval	53.1 (0)	0.2	-2.6
Favorability	Biden 18.2 (0)	Biden +2.6	Biden +6.5
Direction of the Country	-31.5 (0)	1.4	14
Generic Ballot	Dem 6.6 (0)	Dem 6.6 (0)	Dem -2.0
Betting Markets	Biden 66.0 (-1.1)	Biden +2.6	Biden +5.3
Clinton vs. Trump 2016 GE	Clinton +4
Biden vs Clinton GE Polls	Biden +6.4

[Actinguy 862]

I actually don't believe that Republican elected officials are really as passionate about overturning Roe v. Wade as they pretend to be.  My reasoning:

1)  It's not like they've lacked opportunity.  Trump took office with Republicans dominating the White House, the Senate, the House, the Governors, the state legislatures, and the Supreme Court.  A 6-3 advantage in the Supreme Court doesn't give you anything that a 5-4 advantage doesn't also give you.  They've had every opportunity to overturn Roe v. Wade and they've made no actual, serious effort to do so.

2)  I suspect many of them are secretly grateful that abortions are legally accessible.  Just think about how many abortions Donald Trump himself has personally paid for over the years.  His whole public personality is intentionally built on him being a lothario -- he literally described being single in New York during the AIDS pandemic as his "own personal Vietnam," and we also know from Stormy Daniels that he wouldn't even wear a condom while having an affair with a PORN STAR (something even other porn stars wouldn't do) -- and yet not a SINGLE pregnancy out of wedlock?  He was paying for the abortions.

3)  It's been the number one campaign issue for DECADES...which actually de-incentivizes Republicans from actually doing anything about it.  If they actually get abortion banned...then they lose all the voters for whom that was the only/main issue they cared about.  My grandmother fully recognizes that Trump is atrocious...but all Democrats are baby-killers, so she's going to vote for Trump anyway.  Take the "baby killing" issue off of the table and Biden just gained himself another vote in Pennsylvania.

[Edouard 121]

I do not know if Barett would dare to overturn both, but I believe in one thing.

More a thing has been scealed in time, the harder it is to overturn it.

White christians in 70's ruled Roe v Wade, they weren't much more progressisve than Barrett.

While Obamacare it's different, it's more common than 10 years ago but it's still a left-wing project. it's much more easier to overturn Obamacare than Roe v Wade in my opinion.

[Hestia11 572]

I think they'll definitely make a play for Obamacare. They've already taken up a case on it, so they will likely do it again. I dont think so on Roe, but I wouldn't rule it out either.

[Zenobiyl 209]

16 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

I actually don't believe that Republican elected officials are really as passionate about overturning Roe v. Wade as they pretend to be.  My reasoning:

1)  It's not like they've lacked opportunity.  Trump took office with Republicans dominating the White House, the Senate, the House, the Governors, the state legislatures, and the Supreme Court.  A 6-3 advantage in the Supreme Court doesn't give you anything that a 5-4 advantage doesn't also give you.  They've had every opportunity to overturn Roe v. Wade and they've made no actual, serious effort to do so.

2)  I suspect many of them are secretly grateful that abortions are legally accessible.  Just think about how many abortions Donald Trump himself has personally paid for over the years.  His whole public personality is intentionally built on him being a lothario -- he literally described being single in New York during the AIDS pandemic as his "own personal Vietnam," and we also know from Stormy Daniels that he wouldn't even wear a condom while having an affair with a PORN STAR (something even other porn stars wouldn't do) -- and yet not a SINGLE pregnancy out of wedlock?  He was paying for the abortions.

3)  It's been the number one campaign issue for DECADES...which actually de-incentivizes Republicans from actually doing anything about it.  If they actually get abortion banned...then they lose all the voters for whom that was the only/main issue they cared about.  My grandmother fully recognizes that Trump is atrocious...but all Democrats are baby-killers, so she's going to vote for Trump anyway.  Take the "baby killing" issue off of the table and Biden just gained himself another vote in Pennsylvania.

As someone with religious right friends and family, I think you hit the nail on the head. Republicans themselves have more to gain from allowing abortion to remain a hot topic. However, SCOTUS members aren’t beholden to a party, so the best indicator for their vote would be ideology and voting records. The choice of Barrett, a conservative, religious, and pro-life advocate, will no doubt increase the odds of Roe v. Wade being overturned. Not to mention, Pence will be a serious candidate down the line. Even if Trump doesn’t give a shit about abortion, Pence 100% does.

[pilight 237]

25 minutes ago, Edouard said:

White catholics in 70's ruled Roe v Wade, they weren't much more progressisve than Barrett

There was one Catholic on the bench when Roe v Wade was decided and he was substantially more progressive than Barrett

[Jayavarman 129]

Voter suppression should be an option for #2: lost mail, thrown out ballots, insufficient polling stations, long lines, voter purges, etc.

[Edouard 121]

12 minutes ago, pilight said:

There was one Catholic on the bench when Roe v Wade was decided and he was substantially more progressive than Barrett

Indeed but the court (catholic or christian) was majoritary republican in the 70's, and this majority of Reps wasn't more progressive than the current Reps.

[Reagan04 658]

1 hour ago, Edouard said:

Indeed but the court (catholic or christian) was majoritary republican in the 70's, and this majority of Reps wasn't more progressive than the current Reps.

Yes, they were.

[superezione 49]

On Question 2, a reason for the polls being wrong (other than a normal polling error) would be voter suppression, especially via mail-in-ballots being rejected in droves.

[admin_270 844]

Re 5., answered 'yes to both', but I actually don't know enough about either to give an opinion.

[admin_270 844]

"Biden's polling in NC, WI, and FL has been getting better every day, which must be worrying for Trump."

Trump's and Biden's campaigns will have internal polling numbers, and these will probably be more accurate or relevant than we do (although perhaps not - they have to model all sorts of things that could be worse than public polling aggregates).

But basically all we now about what their numbers are telling them is where the candidates are going, advertising buys, issues they are emphasizing, issue position shifts - that sort of thing.

[admin_270 844]

My understanding is Roe v. Wade has already been modified, with Planned Parenthood v. Casey (which replaced trimester criteria with fetal viability and removed the strict scrutiny standard for government regulations re abortion). If the question is whether further changes like this might be made with a 6-3 court, my answer would be probably - although I'm not sure that would require a 6-3 court.

[TheLiberalKitten 299]

2 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

My understanding is Roe v. Wade has already been modified, with Planned Parenthood v. Casey (which replaced trimester criteria with fetal viability and removed the strict scrutiny standard for government regulations re abortion). If the question is whether further changes like this might be made with a 6-3 court, my answer would be probably - although I'm not sure that would require a 6-3 court.

You are correct. PP V. Casey is the one that altered Roe v. Wade

 

[Defiant 84]

If the majority of polls are significantly wrong, my first guess would be that the likely voter models used had problems.  (Voter suppression or rejected ballots are other potential issues)

IIRC, Barret participated in a mock trial with other judges recently on the very issue of Obamacare, and none of the judges voted to overturn the law.  There were issues with the individual mandate, though, but thats effectively been gone for a while, anyway.

[CPE 97]

4 hours ago, Actinguy said:

I actually don't believe that Republican elected officials are really as passionate about overturning Roe v. Wade as they pretend to be.  My reasoning:

1)  It's not like they've lacked opportunity.  Trump took office with Republicans dominating the White House, the Senate, the House, the Governors, the state legislatures, and the Supreme Court.  A 6-3 advantage in the Supreme Court doesn't give you anything that a 5-4 advantage doesn't also give you.  They've had every opportunity to overturn Roe v. Wade and they've made no actual, serious effort to do so.

2)  I suspect many of them are secretly grateful that abortions are legally accessible.  Just think about how many abortions Donald Trump himself has personally paid for over the years.  His whole public personality is intentionally built on him being a lothario -- he literally described being single in New York during the AIDS pandemic as his "own personal Vietnam," and we also know from Stormy Daniels that he wouldn't even wear a condom while having an affair with a PORN STAR (something even other porn stars wouldn't do) -- and yet not a SINGLE pregnancy out of wedlock?  He was paying for the abortions.

3)  It's been the number one campaign issue for DECADES...which actually de-incentivizes Republicans from actually doing anything about it.  If they actually get abortion banned...then they lose all the voters for whom that was the only/main issue they cared about.  My grandmother fully recognizes that Trump is atrocious...but all Democrats are baby-killers, so she's going to vote for Trump anyway.  Take the "baby killing" issue off of the table and Biden just gained himself another vote in Pennsylvania.

 

4 hours ago, Zenobiyl said:

As someone with religious right friends and family, I think you hit the nail on the head. Republicans themselves have more to gain from allowing abortion to remain a hot topic. However, SCOTUS members aren’t beholden to a party, so the best indicator for their vote would be ideology and voting records. The choice of Barrett, a conservative, religious, and pro-life advocate, will no doubt increase the odds of Roe v. Wade being overturned. Not to mention, Pence will be a serious candidate down the line. Even if Trump doesn’t give a shit about abortion, Pence 100% does.

These 100%.  I am glad that I am not the only one here who recognizes that the GOP only uses the topic of abortion as a rallying cry for Evangelical voters every election cycle.  Abortion is the #1 issue that they have to sway Catholic voters in particular who would love to vote Democratic, but cannot stand the Democratic position on abortion.  No way are they going to get rid of their #1 issue to drive turnout from their Evangelical base (whether they be Catholic or Protestant).  The GOP has had many chances to amend/alter abortion laws in the United States, look up how many decades they have threatened to defund Planned Parenthood lol, but sure do drag their feet on their promises when they get to power.  Most Evangelical voters are too stupid to realize that the GOP plays them for puppets on a string when it comes to religious issues.

[CPE 97]

I also think that it would be very foolish for them to attack Obamacare at this point in time.  This isn't 2016 anymore, the debate over Obamacare was effectively ended when John McCain put his thumb down.  Reopening this issue has more potential to hurt them than it does to help.  The focus should be on amending the existing legislation if need be, in my personal opinion at least, rather than scrapping the legislation in its entirety.  If their intention is to scrap it, they need to present an alternative to replace it with.

[vcczar 1,224]

@admin_270 you asked about Obama. CNN said he’s going to be on camping for the final stretch with FL, WI, and NC as likely stops. Biden is in FL now. I think he goes back to PA soon. 

[admin_270 844]

3 hours ago, vcczar said:

CNN said he’s going to be on camping for the final stretch with FL, WI, and NC as likely stops. Biden is in FL now. I think he goes back to PA soon.

That's interesting - and makes sense. Thanks for this.

[Reagan04 658]

@vcczar I think your count is one day off. 

[vcczar 1,224]

9 hours ago, Reagan04 said:

@vcczar I think your count is one day off. 

I know. Day zero will be the day before the election when I make my prediction. 

[Edouard 121]

The specific thing with the US however to give a point to those who believe Barrett could overturn Roe v Wade is the absence of evolution on abortion

This is particulary different with other societal opinions like Same Sex marriage

 

 

That's why people are less talking about breaking the 2015 decision on Same Sex marriage than Roe v Wade.

But still I remain confident that societal questions rarely go back in time.

Traditionnaly the rares times it happened was because a democracy became an authocracy.