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State of the Race: 21 Days Left


21 Day Poll  

26 members have voted

  1. 1. See the Data in the First Post: Who do you think wins if the election were today?

  2. 2. Is there anything about Justice Barrett personally that you think should disqualify her from being on the Supreme Court?

  3. 3. Do you agree with Democratic efforts to stop Justice Barrett's nomination because of the Merrick Garland situation?

  4. 4. Should US Senators have regular Covid tests and the results released?

  5. 5. Should the SC Confirmation Hearings and Vote be delayed if members of the Senate have Covid, especially judiciary members?



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As usual, Blue trends for Biden and Red trends for Trump.

  • Biden is now at +10.6 avg vs Trump nationally -- his best. 
  • Biden moves slightly in almost all the states, but Trump gets a good poll in GA.
  • Clinton was at +12 vs Trump in 2016, but her polls were always volatile -- jumping wildly up and down from day to day. Biden has been consistent.
  • GA flips from Lean D to Lean R

Categories 21 Days Left A Week Ago
Gen Avg Biden 10.6 (+0.5) Biden 8.8 (+0.6)
AK avg Trump 4.4 (-0.1) Trump -1.0
AZ avg Biden 3.9 (+0.2) Biden -0.5
FL avg Biden 4.5 (+0.1) Biden +0.9
GA avg Biden 0.9 (-0.5) Biden +0.1
IA avg Biden 1.0 (-0.1) Trump -2.2
MI Avg Biden 8.0 (-0.4) Biden +0.7
MN avg Biden 9.2 (+0.2) Biden -0.2
MO avg Trump 5.5 (-0.1) Trump -0.7
MT avg Trump 8.1 (-0.6) Trump 0
NV avg Biden 6.9 (+0.1) Biden +0.4
NH Avg Biden 10.8 (+0.1) Biden +1.1
NC avg Biden 2.9 (+0.2) Biden +0.9
OH avg Biden 0.7 (-0.2) Biden +0.3
PA Avg Biden 7.2 (+0.1) Biden +0.6
SC avg Trump 5.3 (-0.1) Trump -0.2
TX avg Trump 1.5 (-0.2) Trump -0.4
WI Avg Biden 7.2 (+0.1) Biden +0.3
Trump Approval 43.7 (+0.4) 0.1
Trump Disapproval 53.1 (-0.2) 0.1
Favorability Biden 18.2 (0) 16.5 (+1.5)
Direction of the Country -31.5 (0) 3.3
Generic Ballot Dem 6.6 (0) Dem 6.6 (0)
Betting Markets Biden 67.1 (+2.5) Biden +5.3
Clinton vs. Trump 2016 GE Clinton +12  
Biden vs Clinton GE Polls BIden -1.4  

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Can we just chill? Like I just want to do RP, see funny memes, and talk about how to make PI better.

My gosh, I'm in class and I'm missing a lot. Anywho, sending everyone good vibes!

You have 4 days to cool off. Peace, bro.

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Despite my answers here, I am at least a little happy that Trump is too stupid to understand that delaying confirmation would have actually helped him win re-election.

With conservative domination of the Supreme Court assured for the years to come, Republicans who see Trump for the con artist that he is can safely vote for Biden or at least stay home and rest assured that their decision will not have a significant impact on the Supreme Court.

I actually suspect most Republican senators, including perhaps McConnell, may actually have figured that out — and intentionally hid that reality from Trump, because they’re just as eager to see his end as we are...especially if they get the Supreme Court they wanted anyway.

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1 minute ago, Actinguy said:

Despite my answers here, I am at least a little happy that Trump is too stupid to understand that delaying confirmation would have actually helped him win re-election.

With conservative domination of the Supreme Court assured for the years to come, Republicans who see Trump for the con artist that he is can safely vote for Biden or at least stay home and rest assured that their decision will not have a significant impact on the Supreme Court.

I actually suspect most Republican senators, including perhaps McConnell, may actually have figured that out — and intentionally hid that reality from Trump, because they’re just as eager to see his end as we are...especially if they get the Supreme Court they wanted anyway.

Biden isn't doing himself any favors amongst those same people when he deflects on packing the courts and says "you'll know my position after the election."

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1 minute ago, Actinguy said:

Despite my answers here, I am at least a little happy that Trump is too stupid to understand that delaying confirmation would have actually helped him win re-election.

With conservative domination of the Supreme Court assured for the years to come, Republicans who see Trump for the con artist that he is can safely vote for Biden or at least stay home and rest assured that their decision will not have a significant impact on the Supreme Court.

I actually suspect most Republican senators, including perhaps McConnell, may actually have figured that out — and intentionally hid that reality from Trump, because they’re just as eager to see his end as we are...especially if they get the Supreme Court they wanted anyway.

I could see confirmation before/after election day going either way in regards to voting.

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16 minutes ago, SilentLiberty said:

"you'll know my position after the election."

Anyone who's able to read between the lines knows his position already...

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Just now, Conservative Elector 2 said:

Anyone who's able to read between the lines knows his position already...

I personally don't think he believes in expanding the court. I think he just doesn't want to make a stance out of fear that it will decrease enthusiasm from the Left or Center. It's probably the smartest thing he could say. I'm about 90% sure he won't approve of expanding the court even if Barrett gets confirmed. 

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Just now, vcczar said:

I personally don't think he believes in expanding the court. I think he just doesn't want to make a stance out of fear that it will decrease enthusiasm from the Left or Center. It's probably the smartest thing he could say. I'm about 90% sure he won't approve of expanding the court even if Barrett gets confirmed. 

Hopefully. While I am inclined to think Biden himself is or was not in favor of expanding the court, we know times have changed towards the more vocal left and they make certain demands. I don't think Biden has the base support to ignore them. There were times Biden approved the Iraq War by voting for it, but that wouldn't be possible anymore.

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1 minute ago, Conservative Elector 2 said:

Hopefully. While I am inclined to think Biden himself is or was not in favor of expanding the court, we know times have changed towards the more vocal left and they make certain demands. I don't think Biden has the base support to ignore them. There were times Biden approved the Iraq War by voting for it, but that wouldn't be possible anymore.

He'd be president in this situation and not a Senator. Besides, Democrats won't get the support to expand the court. Biden wouldn't favor it unless it would result in him having to veto his own party. I will admit it won't veto his own party, but he isn't going to encourage or trying to actively expand the court, since I think he's opposed to it. 

I will say this. I think if the situation were reversed, I think Trump would be calling for expanding the SC and he'd actively work to do it. Do you think GOP Senators would get the vote to expand the SC if the situation were the reverse, and they were looking like they'd take over the US Senate and with Trump as the incoming candidate. Let's assume Biden forced through a Justice who was politically similar to AOC on the court and she got confirmed, giving Democrats a 6-3 majority, with most of them likely to serve for 3 decades or more.

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I mean — what’s to stop the Republican Party from expanding the Supreme Court right now, as a preemptive strike against the Democrats?

 

The Democrats would then be justified to expand it even more...which the Republicans would then be justified to expand even further once they regain power...etc.

 

This is a stupid, incredibly short sighted game. 

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I suspect Biden is trying to hold his fire on the court-packing issue to wait and see just how far a 6-3 conservative SCOTUS is prepared to go. He probably doesn't want to expand the Court, but might consider it if SCOTUS started making it impossible for him to govern at all.

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11 minutes ago, vcczar said:

He'd be president in this situation and not a Senator. Besides, Democrats won't get the support to expand the court. Biden wouldn't favor it unless it would result in him having to veto his own party. I will admit it won't veto his own party, but he isn't going to encourage or trying to actively expand the court, since I think he's opposed to it. 

I will say this. I think if the situation were reversed, I think Trump would be calling for expanding the SC and he'd actively work to do it. Do you think GOP Senators would get the vote to expand the SC if the situation were the reverse, and they were looking like they'd take over the US Senate and with Trump as the incoming candidate. Let's assume Biden forced through a Justice who was politically similar to AOC on the court and she got confirmed, giving Democrats a 6-3 majority, with most of them likely to serve for 3 decades or more.

I wouldn't even want the GOP to expand the court. The court should remain untouched. 

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1 minute ago, Actinguy said:

I mean — what’s to stop the Republican Party from expanding the Supreme Court right now, as a preemptive strike against the Democrats?

 

The Democrats would then be justified to expand it even more...which the Republicans would then be justified to expand even further once they regain power...etc.

 

This is a stupid, incredibly short sighted game. 

I don't see why having even 50 justices would be any worse than having 9. With 9, they all have too much individual power. I don't think there should be a set number, but there should be a minimum number. I'd like:

  • Term limits for Justices (10 to 20 year range)
  • I'd like the requirement that Justices must be elevated from Chief Justice of a lower Federal Court, which means the justice is automatically qualified and experienced. These in turn are selected from lower Federal Court associate justices. They in turn are taken from state justices who have proof of non-partisan political activity -- no associations with left-wing or right-wing organizations, and are registered independents. This should limit any debate on qualifications. 
  • I'd like that every Chief Justice of the SC is elevated from the Associate Justices. 
  • I'd like that every president gets to appoint 1 new SC Justice on election and reelection. They also appoint replacements. There is not max number of justices, it would be fluid, but there must be at least -- say 5, 7, or 9 justices, whichever seems best. 
  • I'd like the matter on whether a president can appoint a justice in lame duck or when votes have already been cast in an election to be settled. 
  • I'd like every Justice require a 60+ vote confirmation. 

I think if my proposals were the traditional law, we'd have few issues or drama in this regard. The main judicial confirmation fights would be those going from state to lower federal. That's where they'd have proof of fair, unbiased judgment. Also, most SC Justices would be c. 60 when appointed going this route, so they'd be experienced, eminent federal judicial scholars, and unlikely to serve for more than 20 years. 

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9 minutes ago, Conservative Elector 2 said:

I wouldn't even want the GOP to expand the court. The court should remain untouched. 

Well, you didn't answer my questions but that's okay, I guess.

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1 hour ago, Actinguy said:

I actually suspect most Republican senators, including perhaps McConnell, may actually have figured that out — and intentionally hid that reality from Trump, because they’re just as eager to see his end as we are...especially if they get the Supreme Court they wanted anyway.

There still would have been a risk of Trump losing even with a delay.  This is their best chance to get Barrett on the court.

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Not sure what 3. meant, so I said 'yes'. I agree that the Dems can try to stop the nomination if they decide she's not fit to serve, and that's up to them, as the Reps tried to stop the Garland nomination. Similarly, the Reps can try to confirm the nominee, and that's up to them.

More specific questions about the methods used to do one or the other might have different answers, though.

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2 hours ago, vcczar said:

He'd be president in this situation and not a Senator. Besides, Democrats won't get the support to expand the court. Biden wouldn't favor it unless it would result in him having to veto his own party. I will admit it won't veto his own party, but he isn't going to encourage or trying to actively expand the court, since I think he's opposed to it. 

I will say this. I think if the situation were reversed, I think Trump would be calling for expanding the SC and he'd actively work to do it. Do you think GOP Senators would get the vote to expand the SC if the situation were the reverse, and they were looking like they'd take over the US Senate and with Trump as the incoming candidate. Let's assume Biden forced through a Justice who was politically similar to AOC on the court and she got confirmed, giving Democrats a 6-3 majority, with most of them likely to serve for 3 decades or more.

 

1 hour ago, vcczar said:

Well, you didn't answer my questions but that's okay, I guess.

There were no question marks so I thought these are rhetorical questions not waiting on an answer from me. I don't think most GOP senators  would go this path with Trump. On the other hand I also think there might be some Democratic Senators not supporting the move to expand the courts. I'd certainly hope both parties could agree not to change anything here. The outcome would be disastrous because it creates a dangerous precedent. 

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9 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Is Obama campaigning for Biden?

Besides an endorsement I don't think he really needs to.

All Presidents should limit their involvement in partisan politics post presidency IMO. Bush did it, Clinton did it, etc.

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Naive theory about how polls work: electorate -> random sampling -> poll results.

More realistic: electorate -> make a model about what sort of geographical, educational, ethnic, party affiliation, and so on segments are relevant for sampling for a given region -> make a model about who will turn out -> modify models if any desired specific results -> sample until get what models say is required for relevant sample -> poll results.

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47 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Is Obama campaigning for Biden?

He's done some things on Twitter around Convention time  but nothing else.

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Just voted by mail today for the B.C. election, because I don't have much time right now. Was a write-in ballot because I requested it before nominations were finalized. One of the candidates in my riding doesn't even have signs with his name on it yet, even though the election is 12 days away - instead, they say the party leader's name. I believe if people put that name on their write-in ballot here it won't count. Our election was announced on Sep. 21st, and even so will happen more than a week before the U.S. Presidential election (Oct. 24th). 🤠

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