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Where will the parties go after 2020 if they lose?


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1 hour ago, Sunnymentoaddict said:

If Trump were to lose in 2020, will the GoP see that as a repudiation on Trumpism?

If Biden were to lose, where will the Democratic Party go?

 

If Trump loses, my wish is that Tim Scott becomes the nominee in 2024 and the GOP opens up considerably to voters of color, immigrants, college-educated whites, and LGBT voters.

If Biden loses, Dems are going to run right off the Socialism cliff a la AOC and gang.

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10 minutes ago, Reagan04 said:

If Trump loses, my wish is that Tim Scott becomes the nominee in 2024 and the GOP opens up considerably to voters of color, immigrants, college-educated whites, and LGBT voters.

If Biden loses, Dems are going to run right off the Socialism cliff a la AOC and gang.

 

1 hour ago, Sunnymentoaddict said:

If Trump were to lose in 2020, will the GoP see that as a repudiation on Trumpism?

If Biden were to lose, where will the Democratic Party go?

 

I agree with @Reagan04 that the Warren and/or Sanders wing--possibly AOC--will take over the Dems. 

I think Trumpism is repudiated if he loses badly and if Dems look good going into midterms. I really don't know what to think. What happens to Trump supporters if GOP members denounce Trump? I think they'll have to appease them. To what level, I don't know. I think anyone hoping them to resurrect themselves from the ashes of Trump are going to be disappointed. I think they just have to go to the Democrats and help keep the party away from AOC and etc. with the moderate and establishment Dems.

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41 minutes ago, Reagan04 said:

If Trump loses, my wish is that Tim Scott becomes the nominee in 2024 and the GOP opens up considerably to voters of color, immigrants, college-educated whites, and LGBT voters.

If Biden loses, Dems are going to run right off the Socialism cliff a la AOC and gang.

Agree. Dems will become taken over by the Warren/Sanders/Warren gang (whereas if they win I think the neoliberal establishment will remain in control, with candidates like Buttigieg, Gabbard, Booker, O'Rourke etc. In control). I definitely think the Republicans will either go Libertarian or maybe back to the compassionate conservativism era of the 90s-2000s. Either way I think Dan Crenshaw and possibly Tim Scott will be frontrunners in 2024.

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If Trump loses, I could see an another Trump- esque try to rise up. Don Jr. might try to run or someone else like that. But I think the GOP will try modernize since it is basically going have to happen soon enough. 

If Joe loses, Ideological tensions are going to go through the roof. In the party's eye's, this is a election they should win or in this case should have won so the party will go into uproar. In the end, the Socialist wing will probably prevail and we will have Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez or some other prominent progressive lead the party.   

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9 hours ago, Sunnymentoaddict said:

If Trump were to lose in 2020, will the GoP see that as a repudiation on Trumpism?

If Biden were to lose, where will the Democratic Party go?

 

I'd like to see them both go to the dustbin of history, where they belong, but American voters don't seem to be learning the lessons of their political historical, and thus are doomed to repeat them. :(

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7 hours ago, Cenzonico said:

If Trump loses, I could see an another Trump- esque try to rise up. Don Jr. might try to run or someone else like that. But I think the GOP will try modernize since it is basically going have to happen soon enough. 

If Joe loses, Ideological tensions are going to go through the roof. In the party's eye's, this is a election they should win or in this case should have won so the party will go into uproar. In the end, the Socialist wing will probably prevail and we will have Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez or some other prominent progressive lead the party.   

I don't know why everyone assumes Donald Trump, Jr. can fill the shoes of his father just because he's the son. "Trumpism," as a movement, isn't about policy, ideology, or a platform, but is a certain style and tenor of campaigning, responding to criticism, public conduct, personal attacks on opponents, evasive speech, encouraging certain activities in "backdoor," ways, etc. From what I've seen of Donald Trump, Jr., he's more like Grand Moff Tarkin - definitely seething evil, but completely lacking personality, and thus utterly INCAPABLE of being a toxically charismatic populist like his father.

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It will take more than one election to wash Donald Trump out of the Republican Party.  He’ll be leading a shadow government from Twitter until the day that he dies.  Hell, assuming he loses in 2020 and is still alive, I would not be remotely surprised to see him run and win the nomination again in 2024.

If Trump is not the nominee, then I’d put my money on Mike Pence.  The debate reaffirmed what I’ve always believed about him — that he’s the only Republican I am aware of who can speak to the MAGA crowd and the moderates/never Trumps with the exact same words.

No, he can’t fire up a rally like Trump can, and maybe that means he can’t win a general election; I don’t know.  But I fully expect 2024 to be a Pence coronation as both a continuation of Trump and a simultaneous return to “normal”.

Side note on the butterfly effect: If Biden is President, maybe Gillibrand gets a cabinet seat or other post in his administration.  That could clear up a Senate seat for AOC.

But if Trump wins in 2020, I expect the Democrat party to swing much younger with their presidential search.  It’s insane that of the four front runners this year, THREE of them would have been one of the oldest Presidents in American history.

Sanders will very likely be dead by 2024, or close enough to it to have no direct impact on the election, though his legacy will naturally carry on.  
 

AOC is his most obvious torch carrier, but she has enough negatives that she might have inner faction competition.  Expect Warren to be back.  Kamala.  Buttigieg.  Booker.  
 

One of the big problems the Democrat party had going into 2020 was an almost non-existent bench of trained candidates.  Gore and Kerry were vague memories, Dean disappeared off the face of the earth, Edwards is obviously dead to us.  Obama is ineligible, Clinton is the only person in the world that we absolutely KNOW cannot beat Trump, Kaine has zero charisma.  Who else has any noteworthy experience running a national campaign within my lifetime?

So, yes, we had the party ancients Biden and Sanders back in their saddles for one last ride.  But we also had a TON of new blood out there (not just the candidates but also the behind the scenes staff) building experience for future campaigns that will help carry us into the next generation.

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4 hours ago, Patine said:

I don't know why everyone assumes Donald Trump, Jr. can fill the shoes of his father just because he's the son. "Trumpism," as a movement, isn't about policy, ideology, or a platform, but is a certain style and tenor of campaigning, responding to criticism, public conduct, personal attacks on opponents, evasive speech, encouraging certain activities in "backdoor," ways, etc. From what I've seen of Donald Trump, Jr., he's more like Grand Moff Tarkin - definitely seething evil, but completely lacking personality, and thus utterly INCAPABLE of being a toxically charismatic populist like his father.

Donald Trump Jr is more like the base that Donald Trump courts than Donald Trump. That's why people think he will run. He relates to Trump voters more than his dad, he actually cares about the policies that Trump voters support, unlike his dad who just goes whichever way the wind is blowing. Trumpism will very much end up living on through Donald Trump Jr. 

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1 hour ago, SilentLiberty said:

Donald Trump Jr is more like the base that Donald Trump courts than Donald Trump. That's why people think he will run. He relates to Trump voters more than his dad, he actually cares about the policies that Trump voters support, unlike his dad who just goes whichever way the wind is blowing. Trumpism will very much end up living on through Donald Trump Jr. 

For some reason I dislike Donald Trump Jr more than Donald Trump. I'm not sure exactly why that is. I don't know if its that I think Trump has mental conditions that impair his ability to be a good person and unselfish and that Trump Jr is just perversely an asshole or what. It could also be that Trump has at least warranted some of his attention for having some personal success and Trump Jr is truly only getting attention for being a child of someone famous, while having know really well-known successes of his own.

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A defeated GOP will either double down on nationalist populism or return to something more like traditional conservatism. 

If the Democrats lose, it will be because of the Electoral College, which means either they stay on their present course and attempt "one more heave" in 2024, anticipating that Texas and the southeast will move a few more critical points in their direction, or else they undertake a serious examination of what's going wrong in the Rust Belt and how to win those states back.

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In the event of a Democrat loss : Josef Stalin will probably be the next nominee lol.  Expect a major shift towards the left.

In the event of a Republican loss : a couple pathways.

1. Pence makes a run and unites traditional conservatism with the MAGA ideology.  He would be the perfect candidate for appealing to both sides of the party, and bringing a reconciliation of sorts.

2. A MAGA candidate gets the nomination following a doubling down on Trump's populism.  Thinking someone in the vain of Don Jr., Richard Grenell, or maybe a DeSantis kind of figure.

3.) A return to Bush/Romney/McCain conservationism.

Just my thoughts.

 

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1 hour ago, CPE said:

In the event of a Democrat loss : Josef Stalin will probably be the next nominee lol.  Expect a major shift towards the left.

Josef Stalin? That's not even funny. Throwing around, "Stalin," "Hitler," "Communist," "Fascist," and "Nazi," labels in modern politics so irresponsibly and frequently is quite disgusting of a trend, but a very common, and is (among other things), lowering the tenor of any socio-political discourse and killing it's credibility and legitimacy. Please, don't!

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If republicans lose with Trump then Pence and Cruz seem the most likely contenders. Problem is there aren’t many moderate Republicans that I can see getting votes. Kasich is too dull, and Rubio cannot debate at all. If a moderate were to run, I imagine they would come out of nowhere, like Pete Buttigieg did for the Democrats.

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7 hours ago, SilentLiberty said:

Donald Trump Jr is more like the base that Donald Trump courts than Donald Trump. That's why people think he will run. He relates to Trump voters more than his dad, he actually cares about the policies that Trump voters support, unlike his dad who just goes whichever way the wind is blowing. Trumpism will very much end up living on through Donald Trump Jr. 

The last time we made a president’s son president didn’t end very well, however. I want someone who wins voters on their own merits, not on the merits of their parents.

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1 hour ago, Zenobiyl said:

The last time we made a president’s son president didn’t end very well, however. I want someone who wins voters on their own merits, not on the merits of their parents.

It actually didn't work well the first time either

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Republicans win or lose are nominating someone far right. Cruz, Tom Cotton, Pence etc.. If Trump wins there's an outside chance Trump Jr can make some noise w his father's help but even that seems unlikely. The President just has a charisma and X factor his son doesn't have (Ivanka does however). If Trump wins another term I wouldn't be surprised to see Pence be the obvious frontrunner 4 years later. 2 extremely strong debate performances and an actual conservative. Of course it would be interesting seeing Trump Jr. vs .Pence w Trump campaigning for his son, but perhaps in that case Trump Jr would wait another 4-8 years. He has plenty of time. 

 

If Democrats lose it's gonna be AOC or a socialist/progressive candidate. The progressives have given them 2 tries at the plate already selecting moderates and in case they lose, that's enough. Not to mention the progressive platform is only going more mainstream as people at the bottom want to take as much as possible from those at the top/mid top. To be expected, but not a winning general election campaign. Frankly I'm surprised it didn't pan out this year. Had Warren stepped aside earlier or Obama not begged Pete/Amy etc to drop out things may have been very different. I'm convinced had AOC been allowed to run in 2020 instead of Bernie she would have won it. She is a force to watch out for. Extremely polarizing yet but the closest thing charisma wise the DNC has had since Obama. 

 

In case the progressive movement has an opposition, it has to be another POC Obama like candidate who comes out of nowhere espousing an immigrant story. Impossible to know who that is at this point. 

 

The media darlings like Rubio, Beto, Booker etc are done. I don't ever see the "I appeal to both sides of the aisle" ever working in the near future for a very long time even  w an Obama like figure. 

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I think the major question is will Trump run again? and how will he do if he does?

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On 10/11/2020 at 7:00 PM, Sunnymentoaddict said:

If Trump were to lose in 2020, will the GoP see that as a repudiation on Trumpism?

If Biden were to lose, where will the Democratic Party go?

 

If Trump loses, the Establishment will attempt to rally and regain full control over the party (which they still heavily influence). Though the liberty wing is positioning itself for an attack against the establishment (though having 4 more years of Trump would help further organization).

The Dems will continue to move left (as their 2 "moderate" nominees would have been knocked out by someone considered an absolutely terrible candidate).

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