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Political Realignment Poll


Political Realignment Poll  

20 members have voted

  1. 1. Historically speaking, for a political realignment to have occurred in a state, which of the following must be true for you?

    • The state voted consistently for a party for at least 10-20 years, allowing for maybe one fluke election.
    • The state voted consistently for a party for at least 20-30 years, allowing for maybe one fluke election.
    • A political realignment requires that the state votes primarily for the same party for a president, governor, US Senator, and US Reps.
    • A political realignment is judged only by the presidential election results in the state, governors, US Senators, and US Reps don't play a part in this.
      0
    • A political realignment should only involved Federal-level support; therefore, only consistent voting for president, US Senator, and US Reps---but not governor.
    • A political realignment must also include state politicians. A state has not really realigned unless the majority of thee State Legislature is of the same party as the majority of their federal office holders + presidential support.
    • Other (please mention below)
      0
  2. 2. If a state had voted Democrat for 100 years and all of their officers are Democrats, would you say they've realigned if they've gone on to vote Republican for president for 30 years, but most of their officers are still Democrat?

  3. 3. If Republicans are on a 30 year streak of holding the majority offices in a state formerly run by Democrats, but the presidential election is consistently a battleground state, have they realigned?

  4. 4. If a state was solid Blue for 100 years, but then the GOP had enough support to evenly split the state for 30 years, would you say the state has realigned?

  5. 5. I'll present my research in a month or so, but off hand, which realignment do you think is the most significant in US history since 1960?

    • Reaction to Goldwater/Civil Rights Act (1964)
    • Reaction to LBJ and Vietnam (1966-1968)
      0
    • Reaction to Watergate (1974-1976)
      0
    • Reagan Revolution (1980-1984)
    • Gingrich Revolution (1994-1998)
    • Reaction to Bush Wars-Rections/Obama Surge (2006-2008)
    • Reaction to Obamacare (2010-2014)
      0
    • Reaction to Trump (2018, and likely also 2020)
      0


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I had been posting realignment by state, but I'm going to wait just make one large post with graphs and stuff in about a month. Your response here might help me determine how I calculate my results. 

This will only be about 1960-2020, but I plan to go back to the beginning. 

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A political realignment must also include state politicians. A state has not really realigned unless the majority of thee State Legislature is of the same party as the majority of their federal office holders + presidential support.

=> This, cause for me Virginia finished to be realigned when Dems made huge gains in 2017/2018 in the state while keeping the governor, it's when the state flipped locally that I was sure Virginia was no longer a swing state.

If a state had voted Democrat for 100 years and all of their officers are Democrats, would you say they've realigned if they've gone on to vote Republican for 30 years, but most of their officers are still Democrat?

=> Yes cause Louisiana is the perfect example of it.

If Republicans are on a 30 year streak of holding the majority offices in a state formerly run by Democrats, but the presidential election is consistently a battleground state, have they realigned?

=> No cause Florida has only partially realigned for example, it's not a rep state even if the GOP is favorized

If a state was solid Blue for 100 years, but then the GOP had enough support to evenly split the state for 30 years, would you say the state has realigned?

=> No for me cause "realign" means switching the state for me.

But if realign is making it swing the answer becomes a yes, it's same for my previous answer

All depends if for you realign is to change party affiliation or also become a swing state. For me it is switching party affiliation that's why I said No to last questions.

I'll present my research in a month or so, but off hand, which realignment do you think is the most significant in US history since 1960?

=> Gingrich Revolution (1994-1998) cause most of the map has remained stable since 2000 even if some states have changed since.

It takes Texas to change in 2020 to change my mind and pick the current period.

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47 minutes ago, Centrist Emperor Kerzaris said:

Can someone help me understand why Gingrich rev. I don't know anything. 

Wikipedia "Contract with America." For reasons that don't appeal to me, it somehow appealed to the remaining Southern Democrats and conservative Democrats and conservative independents that hadn't switched over after 1964 or during the Reagan Revolution. 

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2 hours ago, Centrist Emperor Kerzaris said:

Can someone help me understand why Gingrich rev. I don't know anything. 

I wasnt alive back then so take this with a grain of salt but my understanding is that Gingrich helped win over a bunch of solid blue and swing seats in both houses in a huge red wave before and around when he was speaker of the house. This led to difficulties for Clinton's presidency and probably his impeachment. Honestly I think after this year's blue wave the Republicans are gonna need another Gingrich or else Trump will be the last Republican President.

@vcczar, my knowledge of us congress history is limited pre-1940. What would you say the biggest realignments are befire the 60s? FDR? Civil War?

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2 hours ago, Centrist Emperor Kerzaris said:

Can someone help me understand why Gingrich rev. I don't know anything. 

Just remembered time named him Person of the Year 1995 for breaking the 4 decade long Democratic house majority. That's a big feat.

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4 minutes ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

I wasnt alive back then so take this with a grain of salt but my understanding is that Gingrich helped win over a bunch of solid blue and swing seats in both houses in a huge red wave before and around when he was speaker of the house. This led to difficulties for Clinton's presidency and probably his impeachment. Honestly I think after this year's blue wave the Republicans are gonna need another Gingrich or else Trump will be the last Republican President.

@vcczar, my knowledge of us congress history is limited pre-1940. What would you say the biggest realignments are befire the 60s? FDR? Civil War?

Gingrich Rev was during his time as speaker. He also got scandaled out of being Speaker, which actually probably stopped the Revolution from doing even more damage. 

Pre-1960 was probably FDR New Deal Coaltion. The Lincoln one was is odd because it involved state leaving and then coming back in only with GOP. It's also before the popular vote was 100%. You don't get the popular vote for US Senators until 100 years ago. You don't get every state having a popular vote for president and etc. until Reconstruction. South Carolina never had a popular vote until 1876, 100 years after Independence. 

However, we'll see if I'm right about the New Deal Coaltion being the big pre-1960. It's hard to determine one that would change the electoral map more than the Gingrich one. 

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2 minutes ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

Just remembered time named him Person of the Year 1995 for breaking the 4 decade long Democratic house majority. That's a big feat.

I really dislike Gingrich, but as I've said before, he's a political genius. I actually was sure he'd win the 2012 nomination if you remember any of my 2012 posts. He was doing well at one point in the primaries and I was predicting that before he surged. I just thought he'd hold the lead. Gingrich is probably more important, really, than Reagan or Goldwater, but he wouldn't have existed without them. Ironically, however, he was a Rockefeller Republican until about 1982 or 1984. 

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Just to show what I'm doing with the states:

State Goldwater/Civil Rights (1964) LBJ Reaction (1966-1968) Silent Majority (1970-1972) Watergate (1974-1976) Reagan Rev (1980-1984) New Democrat (1990-1992) Gingrich Rev (1994-1998) War on Terror (2002-2004) Reaction to Bush and Obama Surge 2006-2008 Reaction to Obamacare (2010-2014) Reaction to Trump (2018-?) When Realigned
WY Stays Lean R to Split Stays Lean R to Split Stays Lean R to Split Fluke Dem gain Solid R sustained Stays Solid R Dems Wiped out Stays Solid R Stays Solid R Dems Wiped out Stays Dems Wiped Out Reagan Rev - Non-Party Change
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