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State of the Race: 24 Days Left


24 Day Poll  

24 members have voted

  1. 1. See the Data in the First Post: Who do you think wins if the election were today?

  2. 2. In what area has Trump been Great to Above Average as president

    • Economy
    • Healthcare
    • Criminal Justice
    • Trade
    • Foreign Relations
    • Military affairs and Veterans affairs
    • Crisis Management
    • Education and Student Loans
    • Environment and Climate Change
    • Energy and National Resource
    • Business and Labor
    • Urban Affairs
    • Farming and Agriculture
    • National Security
    • Infrastructure
    • Being a global leader.
    • Being an American leader.
    • Being a party leader.
    • Judicial appointments
    • Cabinet and cabinet-level appointments
    • Rhetoric and communication
    • Civil Rights
      0
    • Civil Liberties
    • Relations with Congress
      0
    • Integrity and avoidance of Scandal
      0
    • Willingness to Compromise/Deal Making
      0
    • Avoiding Crucial Mistakes
    • Other (mention below)
  3. 3. Do you approve of Congress creating a commission to gauge Presidential capacity?

  4. 4. Do you think Trump has completely recovered from Covid as he claims?



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As usual, Blue trends for Biden and Red trends for Trump.

Highlights:

  • Biden is now in a double digit lead over Trump nationally for the first time.
  • Trump jumps almost a point in AZ
  • MI is really moving out of Trump's orbit. 
  • Biden is now over +10 in NH
  • Trump's approval isn't moving despite a polling collapse.
  • Direction of the Country is at its best in the last 100 days. This tends to help an incumbent president; however, it's uncertain if some of this is reflected in people believing that Trump is about to be voted out. 
  • Biden's margin on Trump is double of Clinton's margin on Trump from 2016.
  • OH will flip to Biden on my map if he gets +0.1 more in his average lead.
  • AZ moved from Likely Blue to Leans Blue

Categories 24 Days Left A Week Ago 100 Days Left
Gen Avg Biden 10.1 (+0.3) Biden 8.2 (+0.6) Biden +8
AK avg Trump 4.5 (-0.1) Trump +0.5 Trump -0.3
AZ avg Biden 3.7 (-0.8) Biden +0.1 Biden +0.8
FL avg Biden 4.4 (-0.3) Biden +1.9 Biden -3.2
GA avg Biden 1.4 (+0.2) Biden +0.9 Biden +2.7
IA avg Biden 1.1 (+0.1) Biden +1.4 Biden +1.4
MI Avg Biden 8.4 (+0.6) Biden +1.2 Biden +1.0
MN avg Biden 9.0 (+0.1) Biden -0.2 Biden -2.1
MO avg Trump 5.6 (-0.1) Trump -0.6 Trump +0.1
MT avg Trump 8.7 (-0.1) Trump +1.0 Trump -2.0
NV avg Biden 6.8 (+0.1) Biden +0.7 Biden +0.1
NH Avg Biden 10.7 (+0.8) Biden +1.5 Biden +3.2
NC avg Biden 2.7 (+0.1) Biden +1.4 Biden +0.7
OH avg Biden 0.9 (+0.1) Biden -0.5 Biden -1.2
PA Avg Biden 7.1 (+0.1) Biden +1.3 Biden +0.3
SC avg Trump 5.4 (0) Trump -0.3 Trump -1.2
TX avg Trump 1.7 (+0.7) Trump +0.1 Trump +1.7
WI Avg Biden 7.1 (+0.1) Biden +0.2 Biden 0
Trump Approval 43.3 (+0.1) -0.4 3.1
Trump Disapproval 53.3 (-0.1) 0.4 -2.4
Favorability Biden 18.2 (0) Biden 3.1 Biden 6.5
Direction of the Country -31.5 (6.2) 3.3 14
Generic Ballot Dem 6.6 (0) Dem 0 Dem -2.0
Betting Markets Biden 64.6 (+0.3) Biden 3.3 Biden 4.1
Clinton vs. Trump 2016 GE Clinton +5    
Biden vs Clinton GE Polls Biden +5.2    

7WbBz.png

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Agreed. I happen to disagree with @PoliticalPundit's analysis, but he's been much more civil than @Patine has been lately. You've got to calm down, man. The personal attacks left and right have got to

Wait -- did we just confirm that @SilentLiberty is dating @Hestia11's mom? ;c)

OK, letting both our interlocutors cool off for a day. Thread locked.

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Other: none of the above

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Anyone who says agriculture is kidding themselves. Trade wars and big oil getting waivers have absolutely crushed the farming economy. Not sure how anyone can claim he has helped the Ag economy in any way.

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45 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

Anyone who says agriculture is kidding themselves. Trade wars and big oil getting waivers have absolutely crushed the farming economy. Not sure how anyone can claim he has helped the Ag economy in any way.

Probably true, I considered the trade wars when not voting for trade and foreign relations.

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2 minutes ago, Conservative Elector 2 said:

Probably true, I considered the trade wars when not voting for trade and foreign relations.

https://www.aberdeennews.com/news/ethanol-industry-corn-growers-facing-bloodbath-due-to-covid-19/article_575a1a02-7a80-11ea-8869-675910fc5abb.html

This is a bit old but an idea of what we are facing.

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12 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said:

trumps still ahead of where he was 4 years ago against Hilary however 

What are you talking about? Where? The average poll had Clinton about 5 pts vs Trump, although a few had her +10, but those were not the average. Biden is averaging +10. 

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17 minutes ago, vcczar said:

What are you talking about? Where? The average poll had Clinton about 5 pts vs Trump, although a few had her +10, but those were not the average. Biden is averaging +10. 

The top battleground polls on RCP where it only measures in the like top 10 battleground states. Bidens only leading 4.6 points there where Hillary lead 5.1. Obviously it wont last and its reaching but it's technically correct.

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14 minutes ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

The top battleground polls on RCP where it only measures in the like top 10 battleground states. Bidens only leading 4.6 points there where Hillary lead 5.1. Obviously it wont last and its reaching but it's technically correct.

He needs to clarify that he's talking about battleground states. 

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big questions:

- are the mail in voters people who would have voted anyway? this could be a defining narrative depending on the outcome. 

- % of former white women voters/suburban voters that flip to biden (this could decide the election)

- trump's increase in hispanic and African American votes/non biden votes in swing states

- any surprise vote flips (Arizona for trump, Texas for biden) 

 

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1 hour ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

The top battleground polls on RCP where it only measures in the like top 10 battleground states. Bidens only leading 4.6 points there where Hillary lead 5.1. Obviously it wont last and its reaching but it's technically correct.

id argue it's more impactful than 2016 since America has only gotten more polarizing/damaging to admit openly you're a trump supporter. 

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8 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said:

Clarifying lol yes battleground.

 

national polls dont matter whatsoever 

Yes, the 250-year-old betrayal and stab-in-the-back of "YOU THE PEOPLE," that the are stated by the Founding Fathers to be the source of empowerment of the nation, that is the Electoral College, designed to conserve Slave Power in the Union, which became an irrelevant factor in 1863, and has been since used as one of the major vehicles to rig U.S. elections as thorough as emerging democracies and Post-Soviet party-of-power states to make the corrupt, treasonous, lying, and criminal Duopoly unchallengeable collectively at the ballot box says national polls and popular vote don't inherently mean anything.

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12 minutes ago, Patine said:

Yes, the 250-year-old betrayal and stab-in-the-back of "YOU THE PEOPLE," that the are stated by the Founding Fathers to be the source of empowerment of the nation, that is the Electoral College, designed to conserve Slave Power in the Union, which became an irrelevant factor in 1863, and has been since used as one of the major vehicles to rig U.S. elections as thorough as emerging democracies and Post-Soviet party-of-power states to make the corrupt, treasonous, lying, and criminal Duopoly unchallengeable collectively at the ballot box says national polls and popular vote don't inherently mean anything.

I appreciate your use of adjectives :)

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1 minute ago, PoliticalPundit said:

I appreciate your use of adjectives :)

Obviously the rest went over your head - or faced a wall of apathy. Either way, you seem to have no concern for one of the biggest - possibly the biggest - enemy of the American electoral tradition of choosing it's leadership and accountability to the citizens. Dystopian soft tyranny pretending to be a free nation of Constitutionally, electorally empowered statespeople isn't a problem to you, even though you speak as though the illusion promulgated is actually objective truth. Big Brother appreciates your loyalty, and your betrayal of Lady Liberty.

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50 minutes ago, Patine said:

Obviously the rest went over your head - or faced a wall of apathy. Either way, you seem to have no concern for one of the biggest - possibly the biggest - enemy of the American electoral tradition of choosing it's leadership and accountability to the citizens. Dystopian soft tyranny pretending to be a free nation of Constitutionally, electorally empowered statespeople isn't a problem to you, even though you speak as though the illusion promulgated is actually objective truth. Big Brother appreciates your loyalty, and your betrayal of Lady Liberty.

Once again

 

if you're this panicked right now

 

you have noooo idea what's coming in 2024 

 

biden was literally the most moderate candidate of all the DNC and if you're going berserk over him

 

tf you gonna do when it's AOC and crew marching in 2024? 

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21 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said:

Once again

 

if you're this panicked right now

 

you have noooo idea what's coming in 2024 

 

biden was literally the most moderate candidate of all the DNC and if you're going berserk over him

 

tf you gonna do when it's AOC and crew marching in 2024? 

I'm not berzerked or panicked. You make too many baseless assumptions about my mood. And the fact it likely will get worse by 2024 does not validate or mitigate the rigging of elections, the stripping of voter choice, and the denial of government accountability and transparency to it's people, the corruption and graft of government by billionaires and big corporations, and the high crimes committed day in and day by government officials, and the illegal (in a Third World dictator manner) prevention of any criminal justice being allowed to be levied against them. The ONLY thing that will change and get worse in 2024 as I see it is that this twisted, dystopian mockery of Constitutional electoral government to support soft tyranny is allowed to continue unabated, unchallenged, and intact for another four years. That's it! The whole corrupt, criminal, treasonous, and rigged needs to be brought to an end, the Duopoly as a whole needs to lose it's grip on power - permanently - and all the high criminals in government, or alive, but retired, former government, need to face trial for their crimes - and real, no punches pulled, all seditiously secret document under the lablel "classified for national security purposes," cracked open for evidence - and for taxpayer perusal, since taxpayers had their money embezzled for those crimes - and no pardons or political, corrupt,  or nepotistic meddling in the procedures. Individual candidates for either Duopoly party are kind of pointless as long as the Duopoly is still unchallengeable, unaccountable, and not able to be brought to justice for their crimes and betrayals, and in the pocket of the corrupt plutocracy.

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10 minutes ago, Patine said:

I'm not berzerked or panicked. You make too many baseless assumptions about my mood. And the fact it likely will get worse by 2024 does not validate or mitigate the rigging of elections, the stripping of voter choice, and the denial of government accountability and transparency to it's people, the corruption and graft of government by billionaires and big corporations, and the high crimes committed day in and day by government officials, and the illegal (in a Third World dictator manner) prevention of any criminal justice being allowed to be levied against them. The ONLY thing that will change and get worse in 2024 as I see it is that this twisted, dystopian mockery of Constitutional electoral government to support soft tyranny is allowed to continue unabated, unchallenged, and intact for another four years. That's it! The whole corrupt, criminal, treasonous, and rigged needs to be brought to an end, the Duopoly as a whole needs to lose it's grip on power - permanently - and all the high criminals in government, or alive, but retired, former government, need to face trial for their crimes - and real, no punches pulled, all seditiously secret document under the lablel "classified for national security purposes," cracked open for evidence - and for taxpayer perusal, since taxpayers had their money embezzled for those crimes - and no pardons or political, corrupt,  or nepotistic meddling in the procedures. Individual candidates for either Duopoly party are kind of pointless as long as the Duopoly is still unchallengeable, unaccountable, and not able to be brought to justice for their crimes and betrayals, and in the pocket of the corrupt plutocracy.

"I'm not panicked" 

 

Writes the next paragraph. 

 

What do you think will change in 2024? Things are only becoming more polarized, left is going further left, right further right.. 

 

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12 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said:

"I'm not panicked" 

 

Writes the next paragraph. 

 

What do you think will change in 2024? Things are only becoming more polarized, left is going further left, right further right.. 

 

Do you even grasp what it is I'm talking about? And, again, stop assuming my moods. It makes you look like a belligerent fool, and little else.

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6 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said:

from an outsiders perspective I think people would disagree with all due respect. 

Who are "people." What specific "people," do you refer to. Clumsy, generalized "bloc references," of opinion almost always lack any credibility at all. So, who are you speaking for, there? Specifically.

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3 hours ago, PoliticalPundit said:

Clarifying lol yes battleground.

 

national polls dont matter whatsoever 

Neither does just a gross percentage of a few battleground states.  In 2016 Trump was leading in half the states they called battlegrounds.  In 2020 he's trailing in all of them.

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1 hour ago, pilight said:

Neither does just a gross percentage of a few battleground states.  In 2016 Trump was leading in half the states they called battlegrounds.  In 2020 he's trailing in all of them.

you're comparing apples to oranges

national polling doesn't matter whatsoever

 

even a "gross % of a few battleground states" is more effective data than national polls 

but tbh im down on polls in general 

 

 

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I was a victim of the Trump trade war. Cant say I was totally against the idea of it but I was a freight dispatcher. As soon as the trade war started General Electric who was our biggest customer got absolutely rocked. Somehow the market at the time was doing well but GE really wasnt. Our drivers were lucky to get a couple of hauls a week where as before we really needed them to do 5 maybe 6. This went on for nearly a year before I was laid off.

 

I was laid off summer 19 so maybe things have gotten better between then and when COVID hit. I dont know but it was definitely some hard times for everyone in the freight business. Of course despite that the drivers still loved them some Trump.

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