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State of the Race: 25 Days Left


vcczar
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25 Day Poll  

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  1. 1. See the Data in the First Post: Who do you think wins if the election were today?

  2. 2. Pres. Trump has backed out of a virtual debate against Trump. Which statements do you agree with. (Click all that apply)

    • Trump has tested positive for COVID so a virtual debate for next week was necessary.
    • Trump is making a mistake by calling off the debate, considering he's down 10 pts in the poll and is facing a landslide defeat.
    • Trump is making a good move considering how the last debate went poorly for him in the polls.
    • I think Trump forced this to happen by saying that he would show up in person for the debate. He knew this would change the rules so he could call it off.
    • Trump doesn't want a virtual debate because the moderator could mute him.
    • Trump doesn't want a virtual debate because he can't see a crowd and he likes a crowd.
    • Trump doesn't want a virtual debate because it makes him appear as an infected, sick person.
    • Trump doesn't want a virtual debate because he wants to walk up to Biden and kiss him on the mouth so he can infect him too.
    • Trump doesn't want a virtual debate because Biden will be more scripted that way.
    • Trump doesn't want a virtual debate because agreeing to it would undermine his message that Covid isn't as serious as Democrats think it is.
    • Other (mention below)
  3. 3. How off do you think the polls will be in the Battleground states on Average?

    • They'll be accurate.
    • They'll actually be off. Biden will do better in the election than in the polls.
    • Trump will do up to +1 better in the election than he is in the polls
    • Trump will do up to +2 better in the election than he is in the polls
    • Trump will do up to +3 better in the election than he is in the polls
    • Trump will do up to +4 better in the election than he is in the polls
    • Trump will do up to +5 better in the election than he is in the polls
    • Trump will do up to +6 better in the election than he is in the polls
    • Trump will do up to +7 better in the election than he is in the polls
      0
    • Trump will do up to +8 better in the election than he is in the polls
      0
    • Trump will do up to +9 better in the election than he is in the polls
      0
    • Trump will do up to +10 better in the election than he is in the polls or more!
      0


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As usual, Blue trends for Biden and Red trends for Trump.

We are in the last quarter of the last 100 days. 

Highlights from today's polls:

  • Biden is now up +9.8 nationally on average. This is his largest average margin over Trump ever. 
  • FL jumps +1.2 toward Biden.
  • Trump's handicap is keeping OH in his corner, barely.
  • Trump sees improvement in MT and MN, but they don't change much in regards to the election.
  • One good sign for Trump is that these state poll collapses don't seem to be impacting his approval rating. 
  • Another hopeful thing about this is Clinton shot up to +10 vs Trump at this time. However, Biden has been much stronger in the states and he's been consistent in his margin, unlike Clinton who was volatile. 
  • Biden increases his favorability over Trump by over 2 pts.
  • GA and IA flip from Lean Red to Lean Blue
  • AZ and FL move from Lean Blue to Likely Blue.
  • PA moves from Likely Blue to Safe Blue. 

Categories 25 Days Left A Week Ago 100 Days Left
Gen Avg Biden 9.8 (+1.0) Biden +1.6 Biden +1.8
AK avg Trump 4.6 (-0.3) Trump +0.6 Trump -0.2
AZ avg Biden 4.5 (+0.1) Biden +0.9 Biden +1.6
FL avg Biden 4.7 (+1.2) Biden +2.4 Biden -2.9
GA avg Biden 1.2 (+0.3) Biden +0.7 Trump -2.5
IA avg Biden 1.0 (+1.5) Biden +1.3 Biden +1.3
MI Avg Biden 7.8 (+0.2) Biden +0.6 Biden +0.4
MN avg Biden +8.9 (-0.4) Biden -0.3 Biden -2.2
MO avg Trump 5.7 (-0.2) Trump -0.5 Trump +0.2
MT avg Trump 8.8 (+0.8) Trump +1.1 Trump -1.9
NV avg Biden 6.7 (-0.1) Biden +0.6 Biden 0
NH Avg Biden 9.9 (+0.2) Biden +0.7 Biden +2.4
NC avg Biden 2.6 (+0.4) Biden +1.3 Biden +0.4
OH avg Biden +0.8 (+0.3) Biden -0.6 Biden -1.3
PA Avg Biden +7.0 (+0.2) Biden +1.2 Biden +6.8
SC avg Trump 5.4 (0) Trump -0.3 Trump -1.2
TX avg Trump 1.0 (-0.4) Trump -0.6 Trump +1.0
WI Avg Biden 7.0 (0) Biden +0.1 Biden -0.1
Trump Approval 43.2 (0) -0.5 3
Trump Disapproval 53.4 (+0.1) 0.5 -1.3
Favorability Biden 18.2 (+2.6) Biden 15.1 (0) Biden +11.7
Direction of the Country -37.7 (+0.2) -2.9 7.8
Generic Ballot Dem 6.6 (0) Dem 0 Dem -2.0
Betting Markets Biden 64.3 (+0.9) Biden +3.0 Biden +4.4
Clinton vs. Trump 2016 GE Clinton +10    
Biden vs Clinton GE Polls Biden -0.2    

vGVow.png

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He probably doesn’t want a debate virtual or otherwise because there’s too much chance of him showing his physical symptoms.

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The bigger point is there's little reason to move the debate to virtual. Both candidates can and will be tested beforehand. There's little reason to believe Trump would still be contagious by the 15th. If that actually *is* the concern, why not push the debate back a bit?

 

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5 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

The bigger point is there's little reason to move the debate to virtual. Both candidates can and will be tested beforehand. There's little reason to believe Trump would still be contagious by the 15th. If that actually *is* the concern, why not push the debate back a bit?

 

I mostly agree with this, but the White House isn't making it seem like he gets tested regularly. In fact, I don't think they've stated when the last time was that he test negative before he tested positive. In the last debate, he arrived so late that they couldn't test him. It was on the "honor system." Trump will have to be reliable and take it seriously for the debate to occur.

I'd like to see another debate because I like seeing Trump set himself on fire. Hopefully, they come to some sort of agreement. 

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Just now, vcczar said:

I mostly agree with this, but the White House isn't making it seem like he gets tested regularly. In fact, I don't think they've stated when the last time was that he test negative before he tested positive. In the last debate, he arrived so late that they couldn't test him. It was on the "honor system." Trump will have to be reliable and take it seriously for the debate to occur.

I'd like to see another debate because I like seeing Trump set himself on fire. Hopefully, they come to some sort of agreement. 

The commission could easily firm up the testing requirements.

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5 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I'd like to see another debate because I like seeing Trump set himself on fire. Hopefully, they come to some sort of agreement.

Ya, open question who this helps more. Typically, I would say it helps the candidate who is ahead to not have debates. But these debates very well be more of a liability for Trump than Biden.

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Some things to add to the above:

2. I also don't think Trump will be able to prepare well before the debate because of the illness (well, and that he never likes to prepare)

3. I think the debates will be +/- ~2 points, but it could go either way as to which direction they're off by.  (it could also depend on who has the momentum, and how undecideds break)  If no one has the momentum, I think it'll probably be 1-2 points to Trump.

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38 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

The bigger point is there's little reason to move the debate to virtual. Both candidates can and will be tested beforehand. There's little reason to believe Trump would still be contagious by the 15th. If that actually *is* the concern, why not push the debate back a bit?

 

It's completely reasonable to expect the debate to be virtual when one party neglected to get tested beforehand, as had been required, and their audience members took off their masks in violation of the rules.

And if I were a candidate, I wouldn't want to hold a debate a few days before the election (as the Trump campaign is now asking for, after saying they wouldn't do the debate).  Why would you want to hold a major debate right before the election without having time to address any possible outcome of it before the election (anyone can have a bad night), unless you're completely desperate?

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2 minutes ago, Defiant said:

It's completely reasonable to expect the debate to be virtual when one party neglected to get tested beforehand, as had been required, and their audience members took off their masks in violation of the rules.

Again, the commission can simply firm up testing requirements.

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@admin_270 https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/520192-biden-campaign-calls-for-town-hall-to-be-moved-after-trump-rules-out

This is interesting. Biden wants to change the final debate to a Town Hall, which is what this 2nd debate was supposed to be. Judging from the CNN Town Halls from last month, this format would greatly help Biden, who was easily more empathetic than Trump was in their separate Town Halls. Biden also stood the entire time and was extremely comfortable in this format. Trump, meanwhile, was sitting the entire time and was mostly talking about his record and not really talking to the people asking the questions. 

Trump might get hurt on two counts here. 1) backing out of a debate when Biden seems eager to have the virtual debate. 2) Being forced into a town hall that will put him at a disadvantage.

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One response to the argument that the polls might be biased towards Biden because they were biased towards Clinton in 2016 in key battleground states, is that the pollsters improved their polling methodology after that debacle.

How can we test this hypothesis?

First, look at FL 2016 results versus projections. 538 Clinton +0.6%. RCP Trump +0.4%. Actual result Trump +1.2%. Bias is 538 Dem 1.8%, RCP Dem 0.8%. Both wrong towards Dems, but not that much.

Now look at 2018 statewide polling.

In the FL gubernatorial election, 538 forecast Gillum +4.2%. 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/governor/

RCP average was Gillum +3.6%.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/fl/florida_governor_desantis_vs_gillum-6518.html

Actual result? DeSantis +0.4%. Dem bias was 538 4.6%, RCP 4%.

What about another swing state - OH?

RCP in 2016 was Trump +2.2%. 538 Trump +1.9%. Actual result was Trump +8.1%. Dem bias was RCP 5.9%, 538 6.2%.

How about in 2018 - surely our vaunted pollsters had improved.

538 Cordray +1.5%. RCP had no official ave., but 3 polls from October. Cordray +5, +3, +6, so let's say Cordray +4.7%. 

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/oh/ohio_governor_dewine_vs_cordray-6426.html

Actual result? DeWine +4.3%. Dem bias was 538 5.8%, RCP est. 9% (but note RCP didn't have an official average).

So here we have 2 battleground states where both 538 and RCP had significant Dem bias. In FL, they were wrong in 2016, but even more wrong in the 2018 gubernatorial election. They were way off in OH in 2016, and about as much or more off in 2018.

Of course, these are just 2 (albeit important in the 2020 Presidential cycle) states. Other states (and statewide races) have different results. But if your belief about what is going to happen in 2020 is based almost entirely on polling, you might want to delve into the past results for those states compared to past projections or averages.

 

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7 hours ago, vcczar said:

vcczar @Reagan04 @Actinguy @Patine @Conservative Elector 2 @TheMiddlePolitical @WVProgressive @SilentLiberty @pilight @admin_270 @Hestia11 @Herbert Hoover @mlcorcoran @Leuser @upandaway @jvikings1 @Rodja @Edouard @jnewt @Nentomat @Kingthero @Sunnymentoaddict @RFK/JFKfan @Mr.Blood @Zenobiyl @Wiw @MBDemSoc @ThePotatoWalrus @Alxeu @Allyn @Cenzonico @CentristGuy @Ishan @billay @wolves @RI Democrat @lizarraba @lizphairphreak @TheLiberalKitten @MysteryKnight @avatarmushi @servo75 @Mark_W

As usual, Blue trends for Biden and Red trends for Trump.

We are in the last quarter of the last 100 days. 

Highlights from today's polls:

  • Biden is now up +9.8 nationally on average. This is his largest average margin over Trump ever. 
  • FL jumps +1.2 toward Biden.
  • Trump's handicap is keeping OH in his corner, barely.
  • Trump sees improvement in MT and MN, but they don't change much in regards to the election.
  • One good sign for Trump is that these state poll collapses don't seem to be impacting his approval rating. 
  • Another hopeful thing about this is Clinton shot up to +10 vs Trump at this time. However, Biden has been much stronger in the states and he's been consistent in his margin, unlike Clinton who was volatile. 
  • Biden increases his favorability over Trump by over 2 pts.
  • GA and IA flip from Lean Red to Lean Blue
  • AZ and FL move from Lean Blue to Likely Blue.
  • PA moves from Likely Blue to Safe Blue. 

 

Categories 25 Days Left A Week Ago 100 Days Left
Gen Avg Biden 9.8 (+1.0) Biden +1.6 Biden +1.8
AK avg Trump 4.6 (-0.3) Trump +0.6 Trump -0.2
AZ avg Biden 4.5 (+0.1) Biden +0.9 Biden +1.6
FL avg Biden 4.7 (+1.2) Biden +2.4 Biden -2.9
GA avg Biden 1.2 (+0.3) Biden +0.7 Trump -2.5
IA avg Biden 1.0 (+1.5) Biden +1.3 Biden +1.3
MI Avg Biden 7.8 (+0.2) Biden +0.6 Biden +0.4
MN avg Biden +8.9 (-0.4) Biden -0.3 Biden -2.2
MO avg Trump 5.7 (-0.2) Trump -0.5 Trump +0.2
MT avg Trump 8.8 (+0.8) Trump +1.1 Trump -1.9
NV avg Biden 6.7 (-0.1) Biden +0.6 Biden 0
NH Avg Biden 9.9 (+0.2) Biden +0.7 Biden +2.4
NC avg Biden 2.6 (+0.4) Biden +1.3 Biden +0.4
OH avg Biden +0.8 (+0.3) Biden -0.6 Biden -1.3
PA Avg Biden +7.0 (+0.2) Biden +1.2 Biden +6.8
SC avg Trump 5.4 (0) Trump -0.3 Trump -1.2
TX avg Trump 1.0 (-0.4) Trump -0.6 Trump +1.0
WI Avg Biden 7.0 (0) Biden +0.1 Biden -0.1
Trump Approval 43.2 (0) -0.5 3
Trump Disapproval 53.4 (+0.1) 0.5 -1.3
Favorability Biden 18.2 (+2.6) Biden 15.1 (0) Biden +11.7
Direction of the Country -37.7 (+0.2) -2.9 7.8
Generic Ballot Dem 6.6 (0) Dem 0 Dem -2.0
Betting Markets Biden 64.3 (+0.9) Biden +3.0 Biden +4.4
Clinton vs. Trump 2016 GE Clinton +10    
Biden vs Clinton GE Polls Biden -0.2    

vGVow.png

The only different state in our forecasts is Ohio, but I think we will have more differences when I change to pollsters method, instead of historical trends.

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1 hour ago, admin_270 said:

One response to the argument that the polls might be biased towards Biden because they were biased towards Clinton in 2016 in key battleground states, is that the pollsters improved their polling methodology after that debacle.

How can we test this hypothesis?

First, look at FL 2016 results versus projections. 538 Clinton +0.6%. RCP Trump +0.4%. Actual result Trump +1.2%. Bias is 538 Dem 1.8%, RCP Dem 0.8%. Both wrong towards Dems, but not that much.

Now look at 2018 statewide polling.

In the FL gubernatorial election, 538 forecast Gillum +4.2%. 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/governor/

RCP average was Gillum +3.6%.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/fl/florida_governor_desantis_vs_gillum-6518.html

Actual result? DeSantis +0.4%. Dem bias was 538 4.6%, RCP 4%.

What about another swing state - OH?

RCP in 2016 was Trump +2.2%. 538 Trump +1.9%. Actual result was Trump +8.1%. Dem bias was RCP 5.9%, 538 6.2%.

How about in 2018 - surely our vaunted pollsters had improved.

538 Cordray +1.5%. RCP had no official ave., but 3 polls from October. Cordray +5, +3, +6, so let's say Cordray +4.7%. 

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/oh/ohio_governor_dewine_vs_cordray-6426.html

Actual result? DeWine +4.3%. Dem bias was 538 5.8%, RCP est. 9% (but note RCP didn't have an official average).

So here we have 2 battleground states where both 538 and RCP had significant Dem bias. In FL, they were wrong in 2016, but even more wrong in the 2018 gubernatorial election. They were way off in OH in 2016, and about as much or more off in 2018.

Of course, these are just 2 (albeit important in the 2020 Presidential cycle) states. Other states (and statewide races) have different results. But if your belief about what is going to happen in 2020 is based almost entirely on polling, you might want to delve into the past results for those states compared to past projections or averages.

 

The issue with OH, FL, and GA is that they're states seem to be regularly accused of voter suppression. I don't live there, so I don't know how true these claims are, but these claims can be found on the internet. It's generally heavily African-American districts that are affected by some method of suppression. If true or even if not true, polls aren't factoring in potential suppression. They're calculating voters intentions with the idea they will get to vote if they choose to vote.

However, despite this, the polls need to be better than they were in 2016 or 2018. They'd have to be way worse in 2020 for Trump to win at this rate. There's also different types of polls. Live caller or not? Likely voters or not? Some polls are more helpful than others. 538 is supposed to be factoring that in for their weighted averages.

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Guys.....

 “I was reading last night about the fall of France in the summer of 1940 and the general, Reynaud, calls up Churchill and says, ‘It’s over.’ And Churchill says, ‘How can that be? You’ve got the greatest army in Europe. How can it be over?’ He said, ‘It’s over.'”

“So I had that suppressed feeling,” Matthews added.

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Oh and @admin_270 and I’m including “legal” voter suppression. For instance, what is going on in TX. Only one mail in ballot drop off player per county.  Some Texas counties are about 100 people. They get a drop off. Harris Co has 4.2 million people. They get one drop off place. They’ve shown videos of Harris Co. people in their cars waiting in lines as long as football fields trying to drop off their ballot. This suppressed urban votes who will vote Democrat in TX by adding the unnecessary hurdle. Mail in ballots are also disproportionately more common from Dem voters according to recent polls. 
 

I wouldn’t put it past Dem states to suppress votes either, but you never hear about it if it is done. They need a transparent fair voting system for all 50 state’s that is uniform. They should allow states to control federal elections. 

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The "moderator" for the next debate thinking he's sending a DM to Scaramucci.

 

Let's not forget:

- interned for Joe Biden in college

- In 2016 went to a Biden charity golfing event and took pictures

- Tweeted an article called, "Never Trump" 

 

So fair! 

 

You can dislike Trump, but you have to admit how ridiculously biased the media is towards him. Such horse shit. 

 

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6 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said:

The "moderator" for the next debate thinking he's sending a DM to Scaramucci.

 

Let's not forget:

- interned for Joe Biden in college

- In 2016 went to a Biden charity golfing event and took pictures

- Tweeted an article called, "Never Trump" 

 

So fair! 

 

You can dislike Trump, but you have to admit how ridiculously biased the media is towards him. Such horse shit. 

 

"served as a mail room intern for Sen. Joe Biden from September to October 1978"  That's one month. 

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Just now, Patine said:

Apparently, according to @PoliticalPundit, one month of sorting mail for Biden 42 years ago is an unforgiveable and eternal stain on his soul. :S

It's also very possible he may never even spoken to Biden in the mail room. A month isn't a long time. As an intern, he might not have been working full hours and every day either. 

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1 hour ago, vcczar said:

It's also very possible he may never even spoken to Biden in the mail room. A month isn't a long time. As an intern, he might not have been working full hours and every day either. 

You still have to admit that he's a biased moderator though.

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4 hours ago, vcczar said:

polls aren't factoring in potential suppression. They're calculating voters intentions with the idea they will get to vote if they choose to vote.

I've been doing some more reading on how polls work lately. I'm coming to appreciate how complex it is. I think a lot of people have this idea that there's 1. reality, 2. a simple way to randomly sample that reality, and 3. the poll result. Instead, step 2. involves all sorts of things - and has to. Pollsters try to factor in all sorts of things - because of course all sorts of things factor into who votes. And this is assuming they actually want to get the correct result (as opposed to a partisan result). Often the models, data sets, or methods are proprietary - sometimes not even competitors know how they are getting their results.

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52 minutes ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

You still have to admit that he's a biased moderator though.

He might be. I don’t know anything about him. 

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