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State of the Race: 26 Days


26 Day Poll  

23 members have voted

  1. 1. See the Data in the First Post: Who do you think wins if the election were today?

  2. 2. Assuming the 252 Safe EVs for Biden hold in this forecast map and are accurate, how does Biden get to 270 EVs, if you can pick only one of the below scenarios?

    • He won't get there. Trump will win those Likely Blue and Lean Blue states.
    • Biden wins FL to get him over 270
    • Biden wins PA to get him over 270
    • Biden wins both NC and NV to get him over 270
    • Biden wins both NC and AZ to get him over 270
    • Biden wins NE-2, AZ, and NV, getting him only 269, but then one faithless elector throws the election to Biden, thereby avoiding a contested election in the house.
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  3. 3. Will NC Democratic US Senate nominee Cal Cunningham's sex scandal cost Democrats the US Senate majority?

    • Yes, expect incumbent Thom Tillis to out poll Cunningham for the first time in months. I think NC cares more about faithfulness in marriage than other states.
    • No, Tillis is so unpopular and Trump, Clinton, Edwards, etc. have seemed to have "normalized" sex scandals from being the shock they used to be.
    • I didn't think they'd get the majority even if he wins or didn't have the scandal.
  4. 4. Pres. Trump has decided not to negotiated Covid relief stimulus until after the election to focus on the Supreme Court nomination. Do you agree with this priority?

    • Yes, either because I don't think Covid is that serious, or because I don't believe in government handouts, or because confirming the justice will likely help him electorally.
    • No, helping US citizens through a once-in-a-century pandemic is much more important and necessary than getting a justice confirmed before an election; Confirmation can still occur before inauguration day.
  5. 5. Do you expect an October Surprise to hurt Biden before election day?

    • Yes, it will happen organically and put Trump back in play.
    • Yes, I think Trump's campaign is going to unleash one or more surprises in the last week or so.
    • Yes, but it will likely have no real effect since voting has been going on for awhile now and Biden has a massive lead.
    • No, I think any major Biden surprise would have emerged in 47 years as a public figure.
    • No, I think the most major thing that could hurt Biden now is health-related, and that won't stop enough people from voting against Trump.
    • No, Trump's campaign is in damage control mode and likely won't be able to manufacture a convincing surprise on Biden.


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As usual, Blue trends for Biden and Red trends for Trump.

Biden is now averaging +9 vs Trump nationally. This is just going up. Biden saw a slight rise following the debates, he sees a larger rise with Trump catching Covid.

Highlights from today:

  • Biden is closer in Alaska, than Trump is in Pennsylvania. Let that sink in. 
  • Trump falls almost a point in IA.
  • The good thing going for Trump is that despite polls moving against him, he seems to be keeping striking distance in FL, GA, NC, and OH. Also, while state polls are moving against him, he isn't seeing a significant drop in his approval, albeit it is pretty low for an incumbent.
  • Another great thing for Trump is that the "Direction of the Country" is going his direction. 
  • ME-2 flips for Trump, since it is within his handicap now. 
  • WI goes from Likely Blue to Safe Blue, although this could revert back later this week. 
  • Biden now has 252 EVs of Safe states, if the average polls are to be believed. He needs to win PA or FL to push him over -- or a combination of NC+AZ, or NC+NV. 

Categories 26 Days Left A Week Ago 100 Days Left
Gen Avg Biden 9.0 (+0.2) Biden 7.6 (+0.5) Biden +1.0
AK avg Trump 4.9 (-0.5) Trump +0.7 Trump +0.1
AZ avg Biden 4.4 (0) Biden +0.7 Biden +1.5
FL avg Biden 3.5 (-0.1) Biden +1.5 Biden -4.1
GA avg Biden 0.9 (+0.1) Biden +0.9 Trump -0.4
IA avg Trump 0.5 (-0.7) Trump 0 Trump +0.2
MI Avg Biden 7.6 (+0.3) Biden +0.6 Biden +0.2
MN avg Biden 9.3 (-0.1) Biden +0.3 Biden -1.8
MO avg Trump -5.9 (-0.3) Trump -0.6 Trump +0.4
MT avg Trump 8.0 (-0.1) Trump +0.2 Trump -2.7
NV avg Biden 6.8 (+0.3) Biden +0.2 Biden +0.1
NH Avg Biden 9.7 (0) Biden +0.4 Biden +2.2
NC avg Biden 2.2 (+0.2) Biden +1.0 Biden 0
OH avg Biden 0.5 (+0.1) Biden -0.7 Biden -1.6
PA Avg Biden 6.3 (-0.3) Biden +0.7 Biden -0.4
SC avg Trump 5.4 (-0.1) Trump -0.4 Trump -1.2
TX avg Trump 1.4 (-0.5) Trump -0.4 Trump +1.4
WI Avg Biden 7.0 (+0.1) Biden +0.1 Biden -0.1
Trump Approval 43.2 (-0.4) -0.7 3
Trump Disapproval 53.3 (+0.3) 0.5 -2.4
Favorability Biden 15.6 (-0.9) Biden +0.5 Biden +4.1
Direction of the Country -32.9 (+1.9) 2.1 12.4
Generic Ballot Dem 6.6 (0) Dem +0.4 Dem -2.0
Betting Markets Biden 63.4 (+1.6) Biden +3.6 Biden +3.4
Clinton vs. Trump 2016 GE Clinton +5    
Biden vs Clinton GE Polls Biden +4    

bpdnm.png

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The interesting question is whether Democrats will distance themselves from the Cunningham campaign or not.

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The Cunningham sex scandal is relatively tame to what we've come to expect in politics these days IMO. It will tighten up the race for sure, with some Trump -> Cooper -> Cunningham voters becoming Trump > Cooper > Tillis voters, but I don't think it will swing it enough to make a meaningful difference.

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Amazingly, a Rasmussen poll (which has a Conservative bias generally) has Biden +12 on Trump. 

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Just now, vcczar said:

Amazingly, a Rasmussen poll (which has a Conservative bias generally) has Biden +12 on Trump. 

Their random number generator is broken, clearly. 

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It might not be the case when I do my next update, but Biden is now averaging +9.4 versus Trump, which is his best yet.

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I think Cunningham has a greater capacity to lose now, but I'm not entirely sure if it'll cost Dems the majority. It could, obviously but there are other pickup opportunities in Iowa, GA-Special, South Carolina, Kansas and Montana that could close that gap

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look: I could understand bc of Clinton's negatives why the polls were off.

 

BUT if somehow Trump wins this time (not nationally obviously but EC), they need to just stop making polls. In today's climate it makes it impossible for people to tell the truth to pollsters/just hang up.

 

But clearly it looks good for Biden. I wonder if it'd be possible for the Biden campaign to declare victory on November 3rd even before mail in ballots start coming in? 

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3 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said:

look: I could understand bc of Clinton's negatives why the polls were off.

 

BUT if somehow Trump wins this time (not nationally obviously but EC), they need to just stop making polls. In today's climate it makes it impossible for people to tell the truth to pollsters/just hang up.

 

But clearly it looks good for Biden. I wonder if it'd be possible for the Biden campaign to declare victory on November 3rd even before mail in ballots start coming in? 

Yeah, there's also a clear difference between 2016 polls and 2020 polls that some on here aren't factoring. Biden's polling #s have been consistent, more or less, while Clinton's have been volatile, with Trump leading about 25% of the time. Trump has never led Biden. 

If Trump somehow wins and the polls stay consistent, then one of two things happened:

1) Polls are completely worthless and should never be trusted again. 

2) Something highly unethical or illegal occurred that either repressed votes or manufactured false votes. 

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20 minutes ago, vcczar said:

1) Polls are completely worthless and should never be trusted again.

Yes, if %s stay roughly the same or the Biden lead increases in battleground polls, then for my next prediction update I'll have to look carefully at this.

Either the prediction flips, or I find good reasons to doubt the poll averages beyond '2016 was off'.

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Most interesting article I've read today.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/07/joe-biden-trump-territory-426802

Biden's campaign is set to spend $6.2M in Texas on ads over the next month. If so, this is sounding like Clinton in 2016 making a play for TX. Could it work this time?

Biden campaign also outspending in MI and PA.

None of this is new - Trump campaign was heavily outspent by Clinton campaign in 2016. Interesting, though.

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15 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Most interesting article I've read today.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/07/joe-biden-trump-territory-426802

Biden's campaign is set to spend $6.2M in Texas on ads over the next month. If so, this is sounding like Clinton in 2016 making a play for TX. Could it work this time?

Biden campaign also outspending in MI and PA.

None of this is new - Trump campaign was heavily outspent by Clinton campaign in 2016. Interesting, though.

I never understand this strategy. Playing to "Run up the score" is so much riskier than just focusing on the legit battlegrounds. 

 

And where has Biden campaigned in the last 2-3 months or so? I remember Clinton never going to Wisconsin the entire 2016 campaign and yet they screamed "rigged" and couldn't understand why she lost the state. 

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1 hour ago, vcczar said:

Yeah, there's also a clear difference between 2016 polls and 2020 polls that some on here aren't factoring. Biden's polling #s have been consistent, more or less, while Clinton's have been volatile, with Trump leading about 25% of the time. Trump has never led Biden. 

If Trump somehow wins and the polls stay consistent, then one of two things happened:

1) Polls are completely worthless and should never be trusted again. 

2) Something highly unethical or illegal occurred that either repressed votes or manufactured false votes. 

There's always the outside chance it's just a Trump thing and if a Rubio/Cruz ran people would be more open about who they like, idk ...

I just remember so many polls in 2016 having Clinton up 10-12% and as mentioned previously, a poll had Trump at 38% with like a month to go in the election.

 

 

What happened to, "There is no path to 270"?? Everyone on Election Day was talking about "Will Trump accept the results" already assuming he lost.

We'll see. 

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Today's VP debate is huge. Obviously bc of the age of both candidates this can either solidify Biden voters who are just about to send in their mail in ballots, or cause a lot of questions and give Trump an opening at the next debate to win some votes again like in 2016. 

 

Harris and Pence have such contrasting styles. I question the Harris campaign strategy whether they will look to go super aggressive and bold (my recommendation) or act more "presidential" and give Pence openings to land some real hits. The difference between Kaine and Harris going "Aggressive/interrupting" is that Kamala is a legit prosecutor and has 100% more charisma than Kaine ever did. I don't find Kamala to be very talented in general, but her best quality by far is ability to attack Trump. Similar to Warren, though Warren imo is more polarizing. I give it at least a 30% she has a phenomenal night and becomes the next big star in the Democratic Party off tonight. Her challenge is addressing her racist comments about Biden, and counterattacking. Let's see if her team prepped her.

 

Mike Pence is in a tricky spot. He needs to avoid seeming sexist while also finding way to get Kamala off her game. Not to mention having to defend all of Trump's policies for 4 years and as head of the COVID patrol, he bears a lot of responsibility. In terms of swing state voters though, if he can manage to soothe working class/suburban voters minds about Trump and focus it purely on policy and ideas he should have a great night. His challenge is just getting caught in some of the preplanned viral moments I'm sure the Harris campaign has planned. The biggest being if he walks into a "Trap" attack that Kamala is prepared for which turns into a moment like her Biden bussing debate moment. The Pence group should be looking at Tulsi Gabbard who was able to constantly dismantle Kamala and have her totally thrown in multiple debates. I doubt the media will give him a "Win" but he just needs to avoid having a major loss and just focus on policy policy policy. 

 

 

If Pence "Wins" this debate tonight Trump will be right back in it with a good professional town-hall next week which based on his 1st debate I have some trouble seeing. Trump really needs to have that "Access Hollywood" mindset of acting very humble and careful and he can do it. Biden knowing he is mentally capable is just a placeholder, which based on polls may be enough to win. We'll see, I still have doubts. 

 

My two outcomes tonight are either w a Harris win an 80-20% odds that Biden wins, or if Pence has a good night I'd put it back to 50-50% even potentially 55-60/40% for Trump. Pence saved Trump's campaign last time, let's see if he can do it again. 

 

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Biden now averaging +9.5 vs Trump. I wonder if this holds for my next update.

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