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State of the Race: 27 Days Left


27 Day Poll  

30 members have voted

  1. 1. See the Data in the First Post: Who do you think wins if the election were today?

  2. 2. What was your thoughts on Trump's dramatic and triumphal return to the White House after a few days in the Hospital?

    • It was a historic moment that will mark the turning around of his campaign and his path to reelection victory.
    • I approved of it, even if it is just Trump being the entertainer that he is.
    • I am more worried than judgmental or supportive about it. He seemed to be gasping for air and seemed haggard--clearly in worse health than he's projecting.
    • I condemn the still Covid-positive Pres. Trump for ignoring health advisors and playing down the pandemic once again by ripping off his mask once he got to the White House balcony. This behavior will only sink him further.
  3. 3. Who is more likely to win the VP Debate on Wed?

  4. 4. Trump claims he will still debate and will debate in person. Do you think this is more likely than not?

  5. 5. If Biden win in November (which seems increasingly likely), and he sees the nation recover completely from Covid and its economic effects, and he runs for reelection, which of the following do you think will be true?

    • AOC will challenge him for the nomination and defeat Biden in the primaries.
      0
    • AOC will challenge him for the nomination but won't defeat Biden in the primaries.
    • Biden will be renominated and win reelection.
    • Biden will be renominated, but he will lose to a GOP moderate like Charlie Baker or Larry Hogan for Pres.
    • Biden will be renominated, but he will lose to a GOP establishment politician like Marco Rubio or Tim Scott.
    • Biden will be renominated, but he will lose to a GOP Conservative like Ted Cruz or Tom Cotton
    • Biden will be renominated, but he will lose to a GOP populist like Donald Trump Jr or one of those Q-Anon politicians.
    • Even if Biden is seen as leading the country out of Covid and into a great post-Covid economy, I think Biden will want to retire, and won't run for a 2nd term.
    • If Biden win in 2020, I don't think any of these scenarios will occur.


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As usual, Blue trends for Biden and Red trends for Trump.

Terrible day for Trump. Biden surges way up. Happy days are almost here again. 

  • Biden is now averaging +8.8 nationally. This is unprecedented for a challenger against an incumbent with less than a month left. 
  • Biden jumps up a point or more in AZ
  • GA is very close to flipping Blue, AZ is very close to Likely Blue, even with me giving Trump handicaps.
  • OH is the only state in which Trump showed improvement today.
  • Trump's best news about today is that the map is still unchanged despite a surge of good polls for Biden. 
  • Trump approval falls down to 43% again and his disapproval is now up to 53% again.
  • Biden's favorability surged up by +1.5 pts in one day.

Categories 27 A Week Ago 100 Days Left
Gen Avg Biden 8.8 (+0.6) Biden +1.7 Biden +0.8
AK avg Trump 5.4 (-0.4) Trump +0.9 Trump +0.6
AZ avg Biden 4.4 (+1.0) Biden +0.9 Biden +1.5
FL avg Biden 3.6 (+0.7) Biden +1.7 Biden -4.0
GA avg Biden 0.8 (+0.2) Biden +0.9 Biden +2.1
IA avg Trump 1.2 (-0.2) Trump +0.5 Trump +0.9
MI Avg Biden 7.3 (+0.4) Biden +0.4 Biden -0.1
MN avg Biden 9.4 (+0.3) Biden +0.6 Biden -1.7
MO avg Trump 6.2 (-0.2) Trump -0.5 Trump +0.7
MT avg Trump 8.1 (-0.2) Trump +0.1 Trump -2.6
NV avg Biden 6.5 (+0.5) Biden 0 Biden -0.2
NH Avg Biden 9.7 (+0.2) Biden +1.2 Biden +2.2
NC avg Biden 2.0 (+0.6) Biden +1.0 Biden -0.2
OH avg Biden 0.4 (-0.3) Biden -0.6 Biden -2.5
PA Avg Biden 6.6 (+0.6) Biden +1.1 Biden -0.2
SC avg Trump 5.5 (-0.2) Trump -2.0 Trump -1.1
TX avg Trump 1.9 (-0.5) Trump -0.1 Trump +1.9
WI Avg Biden 6.9 (+0.1) Biden +0.2 Biden -0.2
Trump Approval 43.6 (-0.8) -0.1 3.4
Trump Disapproval 53.0 (+0.7) 0.3 -2.7
Favorability 16.5 (+1.5) Biden +1.5 Biden +4.8
Direction of the Country -34.8 (0) -34.8 (0) 10.3
Generic Ballot Dem 6.6 (0) Dem +0.6 Dem -2.0
Betting Markets 61.8 (+0.8) Biden +2.4 Biden +1.1
Clinton vs. Trump 2016 GE Clinton +7    
Biden vs Clinton GE Polls Biden +1.8    

V1K2k.png

 

 

 

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Harris has the advantage of having done a large number of debates relatively recently. However, despite making a pointed attack against Biden in one, overall I would say she wasn't that strong in the debates, including being eviscerated by Gabbard at one point which sped her downward course out of the Dem primaries.

Pence hasn't done debates recently, but is generally very careful and well prepared, and did well vs. Kaine in 2016.

Both Veep nominees have a target rich environment, but Harris probably has more targets.

Overall, my guess is Pence will 'win'.

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"and he sees the nation recover completely from Covid and its economic effects, and he runs for reelection, which of the following do you think will be true"

My guess is whoever wins will see this in the short term. By 2024, it will be a whole new set of issues and challenges, IMHO.

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While I watched all three of the 2016 Presidential debates, I tuned out of the VP debate after about ten minutes -- it was unwatchable, between two people with zero charisma between them.

I'm not sure about Kamala's debate ability yet, despite seeing her multiple times in the primary.  She has moments of fire, but she also pulls out and bails at the last second after leading up to something big.  I'll likely tune in, but I don't expect the VP debate to hold my interest this year either.

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57 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

While I watched all three of the 2016 Presidential debates, I tuned out of the VP debate after about ten minutes -- it was unwatchable, between two people with zero charisma between them.

I'm not sure about Kamala's debate ability yet, despite seeing her multiple times in the primary.  She has moments of fire, but she also pulls out and bails at the last second after leading up to something big.  I'll likely tune in, but I don't expect the VP debate to hold my interest this year either.

 

1 hour ago, admin_270 said:

Harris has the advantage of having done a large number of debates relatively recently. However, despite making a pointed attack against Biden in one, overall I would say she wasn't that strong in the debates, including being eviscerated by Gabbard at one point which sped her downward course out of the Dem primaries.

Pence hasn't done debates recently, but is generally very careful and well prepared, and did well vs. Kaine in 2016.

Both Veep nominees have a target rich environment, but Harris probably has more targets.

Overall, my guess is Pence will 'win'.

Yeah, the 2016 VP debate was a bore. They usually are. The VP isn't supposed to draw attention.

The first VP debate I ever watched was in 2004. Dick Cheney destroyed John Edwards. He made Edwards seem like a lazy, glory-seeking politician that hasn't the ability to handle the job. Edwards didn't even attempt to defend himself. He just sort of sat there and hoped looking pleasant would be enough. 

In 2008, Biden was really holding back on Palin, sort of how he was holding back on Trump. I do think Biden is really hesitant to come off as unlikable. Obviously, Palin lost that debate, mostly her own doing. 

In 2012, I think Biden handled Ryan better than I thought he would. I was kind of prepared for Ryan to be really tough. Biden's victory might have been more of expectations for Ryan to win. This debate was about as unmemorable as the 2016 debate.

In 2016, the only think I really remember was Tim Kaine coming off like Richard Dreyfus's psychiatrist character from What About Bob?. He seems whiney and frustrated. Pence was unspectacular, but he wasn't off-putting. 

For 2020, I expect Harris will want to be very cutting and aggressive, but based off the Convention, I think the Democrats put in a huge push to make her likable. She was totally not herself at the Convention. She was smiling, nice, a human woman rather than an in-your-face prosecutor. I expect that Harris will play up the, "Hey, guys. I'm nice and fun" card. She might hammer Pence if he makes a huge mistake, but I think her goal is to diminish her unfavorables. 

She has much more potential of coming off as human and likable than Hillary Clinton did, at least. Hillary Clinton can't sound human-- "I am fun. I like many things that are associated with fun. I have a granddaughter. Her name is the following: Caroline. I am fun."

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Just now, vcczar said:

 

Yeah, the 2016 VP debate was a bore. They usually are. The VP isn't supposed to draw attention.

The first VP debate I ever watched was in 2004. Dick Cheney destroyed John Edwards. He made Edwards seem like a lazy, glory-seeking politician that hasn't the ability to handle the job. Edwards didn't even attempt to defend himself. He just sort of sat there and hoped looking pleasant would be enough. 

In 2008, Biden was really holding back on Palin, sort of how he was holding back on Trump. I do think Biden is really hesitant to come off as unlikable. Obviously, Palin lost that debate, mostly her own doing. 

In 2012, I think Biden handled Ryan better than I thought he would. I was kind of prepared for Ryan to be really tough. Biden's victory might have been more of expectations for Ryan to win. This debate was about as unmemorable as the 2016 debate.

In 2016, the only think I really remember was Tim Kaine coming off like Richard Dreyfus's psychiatrist character from What About Bob?. He seems whiney and frustrated. Pence was unspectacular, but he wasn't off-putting. 

For 2020, I expect Harris will want to be very cutting and aggressive, but based off the Convention, I think the Democrats put in a huge push to make her likable. She was totally not herself at the Convention. She was smiling, nice, a human woman rather than an in-your-face prosecutor. I expect that Harris will play up the, "Hey, guys. I'm nice and fun" card. She might hammer Pence if he makes a huge mistake, but I think her goal is to diminish her unfavorables. 

She has much more potential of coming off as human and likable than Hillary Clinton did, at least. Hillary Clinton can't sound human-- "I am fun. I like many things that are associated with fun. I have a granddaughter. Her name is the following: Caroline. I am fun."

I agree on the Cheney-Edwards debate.

Expectations for Palin could not possibly have been lower, and therefore it was not possible for Biden to win.  

I turned off the Biden-Ryan debate because I felt like Ryan was crushing Biden, and I'd already decided I was going to support Obama for a second term due to Romney's stance on gay marriage.

2016, I was struck by what appeared to be off-branding.  Up to that point, everything I'd read on Tim Kaine suggested he was the goofy suburban dad in jean shorts and socks with sandals.  I was fine with that...then tuned into the debate, and didn't see that at all.  He was just an angry guy, yelling at another angry guy.  I posted a screenshot of Bobby from King of the Hill passed out drunk at a bar while his white-haired grandpa is yelling at him, said "Weird how they decided to animate this debate" and turned it off.

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30 minutes ago, vcczar said:

She has much more potential of coming off as human and likable than Hillary Clinton did, at least. Hillary Clinton can't sound human-- "I am fun. I like many things that are associated with fun. I have a granddaughter. Her name is the following: Caroline. I am fun."

😆

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It's difficult to answer the second question. I condemn him for not taking it seriously, but didn't see evidence that his condition was as bad as you stated. However, I also don't see it taking his poll numbers down either, so there's not really an answer there. I think that there is some definite bias to that particular question. 

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I remain somewhat skeptical that there will be a VP debate let alone a Presidential debate.  If they have one, they need to hold it outside, put the podiums 30 feet apart, and put a large glass screen between them.  Or maybe just have the candidates in different locations.

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4 minutes ago, Herbert Hoover said:

It's difficult to answer the second question. I condemn him for not taking it seriously, but didn't see evidence that his condition was as bad as you stated. However, I also don't see it taking his poll numbers down either, so there's not really an answer there. I think that there is some definite bias to that particular question. 

I think the biggest problem is he's still infected and could've been infecting those around him when he took off his mask for what was more than likely a publicity stunt. Though that isn't really an option so I'm not super disagreeing with you :P 

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I don't get why more people think that Trump will win now than 2 months ago

Biden's numbers should have already narrowed up, and they haven't, actually he's never been so high since mid august.

It will take huge events in the next weeks to change that.

For example Hillary Clinton e-mails' reopening by the FBI was a major event and maybe decided the fate of the election (which was way closer).

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26 minutes ago, Edouard said:

I don't get why more people think that Trump will win now than 2 months ago

Biden should have already narrowed up, and he hasn't, actually he's never been so high since mid august.

It will take huge events in the next weeks to change that.

For example Hillary Clinton e-mails' reopening by the FBI was a major event and maybe decided the fate of the election (which was way closer).

Russian interference, Supreme Court tilting strongly in his favor, just flat out refusal to accept the outcome of the election -- the odds of Trump being declared the winner of a legit election are very low...but Trump does whatever Trump feels like doing, and nobody ever stops him.  So Trump will be President for as long as Trump wants to be President.

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Why Trump didn't just agree about masks early on, strict on COVID matters

 

 

and then just hammered Biden on being far left policy wise is beyond me. 

It's a winning argument whenever he just talks about the contrasts between them. Maybe Pence can set the right tone against Kamala and Trump just follows his lead in the next debate. 

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5 minutes ago, billay said:

This race is over and will be considered a landslide. Republicans are losing the Senate. 

The Senate's still close. Cunningham's news will throw that race into jeopardy even more, making races like Iowa must-wins.

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16 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said:

Why Trump didn't just agree about masks early on, strict on COVID matters

 

 

and then just hammered Biden on being far left policy wise is beyond me. 

It's a winning argument whenever he just talks about the contrasts between them. Maybe Pence can set the right tone against Kamala and Trump just follows his lead in the next debate. 

Trump simply can't stick to a script. I don't think it's possible for his debating style. 

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In other news, suspending stimulus talks by Trump was a bad move politically. Now Dems and Biden can claim they were trying to hammer out a deal but Trump risked the country's safety by pulling out of negotiations. Staying in wouldve led more credence to the argument that Pelosi et al were not being responsible.

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23 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

In other news, suspending stimulus talks by Trump was a bad move politically. Now Dems and Biden can claim they were trying to hammer out a deal but Trump risked the country's safety by pulling out of negotiations. Staying in wouldve led more credence to the argument that Pelosi et al were not being responsible.

Trump playbook for the past 4+ years is to just keep doing wild things quickly and repeatedly until you get tired or amazed.

The paranoid part of me says that Trump is intentionally sabotaging the country and setting it up for failure with the ignore Covid and no stimulus action for his foreign/Russian masters and the incoming Democratic administration.  The final part in this play is challenging the election results.

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