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2020 Election: Oregon


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This state is blue and will vote blue:

Here's how Dem noms have done in the 21st century. At least for Pres elections, Obama certainly realigned this state more securely with Democrats. Look at Washington County. Biden will likely exceed Clinton and Obama 2012:

  image.png.78276713af43859d9f764e6b1cbb52ce.png image.png.cf249487127d74b20c3d9de2bd894a59.png image.png.797a3d6c643fbdf637623df304b31c14.png image.png.b3491731a9c11010c98cc7a181fd894e.png image.png.c4cef3ca8548e5e060073ef6313fb327.png
Multnomah 56 54 56 44 36
Washington 26 17 22 6 3
Clackamas 7 3 10 -1 -1
Lane 19 24 27 18 12
Marion -4 -3 3 -10 -7
  11 12 17 4 0

Here's who the voters have supported since 2008 for Pres, Gov, Sen, and US Reps. Darker the margins, the greater support. Same for over 10 years. GOP is nearly extinct. 2006 is the last time there was a 2nd GOP US Rep. You have to go to the 1990s to get a GOP US Senate victory. 1982 is the last time a GOP politician won the governorship here. 

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Obama Obama Obama Obama Clinton Clinton
Kulongoski Kitzhaber Kitzhaber Kitzhaber Brown Brown
Wyden Wyden Wyden Wyden Wyden Wyden
Merkley Merkley Merkley Merkley Merkley Merkley
Wu Wu Bonamici Bonamici Bonamici Bonamici
Walden Walden Walden Walden Walden Walden
Blumenauer Blumenauer Blumenauer Blumenauer Blumenauer Blumenauer
DeFazio DeFazio DeFazio DeFazio DeFazio DeFazio
Schrader Schrader Schrader Schrader Schrader Schrader
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I think Oregon could be in play because of a Republican leaning east and the struggles in Portland. However, the GOP also made an error when when they let Jo Rae Perkins win their primary. If they had recruited someone like Knute Buehler or Bud Pierce the GOP could have a chance to unseat Jeff Merkley as well.

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1 hour ago, Conservative Elector 2 said:

I think Oregon could be in play because of a Republican leaning west and the struggles in Portland. However, the GOP also made an error when when they let Jo Rae Perkins win their primary. If they had recruited someone like Knute Buehler or Bud Pierce the GOP could have a chance to unseat Jeff Merkley as well.

When?! It's got almost no recent history of any signs of GOP growth. They only control 1 US Rep, which has been the case for 14 years. Dems win by larger margins too. They haven't had a US Senator or Governor in eons. The only area where they get any remote support is in presidential elections, but they haven't been competitive since 2004--and it's moving away from them. Do you know what Biden's margin is in OR right now vs Trump in the average poll? +18.4. If this holds, that puts him ahead of Obama's 2008 result in this state. 

Regarding stuggles in Portland, that's only going to hurt the incumbent mayor. He'll be challenged by another Dem and likely replaced by another Democrat.  Portland is basically San Francisco in that its a one party city in which Democrats run against Democrats for offices. 

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1 hour ago, Conservative Elector 2 said:

I think Oregon could be in play because of a Republican leaning west and the struggles in Portland. However, the GOP also made an error when when they let Jo Rae Perkins win their primary. If they had recruited someone like Knute Buehler or Bud Pierce the GOP could have a chance to unseat Jeff Merkley as well.

I don't really think you're in tune with just how small the West is compared to the rest of the state and how the Moderate Southeast will vote for Biden in droves and Portland will remain just as blue. Donald Trump is going to get wiped out in Oregon.

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1 minute ago, Reagan04 said:

I don't really think you're in tune with just how small the West is compared to the rest of the state and how the Moderate Southeast will vote for Biden in droves and Portland will remain just as blue. Donald Trump is going to get wiped out in Oregon.

I just corrected myself from west to east :D Mixed that up lol

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12 minutes ago, vcczar said:

When?! It's got almost no recent history of any signs of GOP growth. They only control 1 US Rep, which has been the case for 14 years. Dems win by larger margins too. They haven't had a US Senator or Governor in eons. The only area where they get any remote support is in presidential elections, but they haven't been competitive since 2004--and it's moving away from them. Do you know what Biden's margin is in OR right now vs Trump in the average poll? +18.4. If this holds, that puts him ahead of Obama's 2008 result in this state. 

Regarding stuggles in Portland, that's only going to hurt the incumbent mayor. He'll be challenged by another Dem and likely replaced by another Democrat.  Portland is basically San Francisco in that its a one party city in which Democrats run against Democrats for offices. 

The 2016 Gubernatorial election was way closer than I thought. Pierce was trailing Brown just a few percents in some polls. 

 

 

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