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Admin election prediction update


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With 1 month to go, it's time to update my election prediction. In my last update on Oct. 3rd, I shifted my % from 80% -> 85% likely Trump wins re-election, and I expect this number to go to 0

Put me in the boring non-prediction 50/50 corner, but that's where I'm at.  It's truly a coin flip for me on how it's going to turn out.  Biden will undoubtedly outperform 2016 Hillary Clinton, but th

Although polls cannot be relied upon entirely, it is important to remember that Biden is not Hillary. His approvals are much better than hers, and Biden appeals to critical voting demographics that Hi

10 hours ago, PoliticalPundit said:

and how do you know those polls are accurate? What if most trump supporters just hang up the phone? 

 

and this 50% or whatever thing doesn't matter. It's purely the EC. 

 

I really think people are not accounting a lot of trump supporters and enthusiasm.. time will tell obviously. 

The 50% come from those who constantly said during 4 years that they were against Trump, there have been moments where it was 56%, and others where it was 50%, but it always stayed 50%

In 2016 both Clinton and Trump were mostly unpopular and there was no incumbent, but in 2020 and after the 2018 midterms we see that the dems kept the 48% from 2016 and even increased it to 50%

So yes Trump can still win the electoral college without the popular vote, but it takes for the dem to do 1% better nationally than 2016 to win the presidency and currently Trump trails by 8%

National polls were right in 2016, they were just wrong with regional disproportion, but it's almost sure that the margins of Trump in the rust bell can't hold as soon as the Dems are 4% ahead of Trump nationally.

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16 hours ago, PoliticalPundit said:

so why did Biden do so poorly in Iowa then in the primary? 

 

To add to what was stated - a lot of Biden's strength during the primary (especially when there were a lot of candidates) was among Democratic people of color, and Iowa is one of the whitest states (so is NH), with over 90+% of the population being white.

 

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6 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

I think more accurately it was among blacks, not people of colour generally.

Biden got whupped in NV, Sanders 47%, Biden 20%.

The actual popular vote in Nevada was Sanders 34%, Biden 18%. But yes.

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1 hour ago, admin_270 said:

I think more accurately it was among blacks, not people of colour generally.

Biden got whupped in NV, Sanders 47%, Biden 20%.

 

1 hour ago, Reagan04 said:

The actual popular vote in Nevada was Sanders 34%, Biden 18%. But yes.

Specifically, Bernie got 53% of the Hispanic vote in Nevada.  Biden was in second place with 17%.

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Just now, Actinguy said:

 

Specifically, Bernie got 53% of the Hispanic vote in Nevada.  Biden was in second place with 17%.

For comparison's sake, Biden got 63% of the Black vote in South Carolina.  Bernie was in second with 16%.

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The Hispanic vote wasn't as uniform (IIRC, Biden won them in Florida, for example, but it's possible that Biden's support among older voters played a role there), but yes, they were a source of strength for Sanders.

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