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With 1 month to go, it's time to update my election prediction.

In my last update on Oct. 3rd, I shifted my % from 80% -> 85% likely Trump wins re-election, and I expect this number to go to 0 or 100 as we get closer to the election. I do not intend to predict 50-50, for that isn't a prediction at all - it's a non-prediction.

My new prediction is 85% -> 85% Trump.

Why no change?

On the one hand, as we get closer to the election, polls become more relevant, and the polls favour Biden.

On the other hand, basically everything else favours Trump.

Let's talk about polls first.

1. Forget national polls - they would be useful if the Presidency was won by popular vote, or if we didn't have battleground polls. As it is, neither clause holds. If Biden receives 100% of the vote in California, it still only gets him as many EC seats as if he had won 50.1% of the vote in California, but it would give him a 5% increase nationally (California has about 10% of the country's population). If we see significant shifts in national poll % averages, that would suggest shifts in battleground polls, but outside of this, they are of secondary usefulness.

2. Battleground polls favor Biden. Biden is +2 in FL, +6.5 in PA, +5 in MI, +0.5 in NC, +3 in AZ, even +0.3 in GA (!) according to the latest RCP averages. (Note that RCP was more accurate in key state averages than 538 in 2016. 538 has revamped its methodologies, but whether this translates into higher accuracy is an open question at this point.)

If you take these battleground poll averages at face value, Trump has a difficult row to hoe in 2020.

Yet, we know that some battleground poll averages were significantly off in 2016. Clinton was +3.6 in MI (actual result Trump +0.3), +2.1 in PA (actual result Trump +0.7), and Trump was +2.2 in OH (actual result Trump +8.1) going into election night. People not telling pollsters their real preference? Late breaking undecideds? Methodological issues with the polls? We actually don't know. Trafalgar was closest of all the pollsters in MI and PA, Emerson in OH. Should we listen more carefully to those pollsters this time around, or were they just lucky in 2016 for those states? We don't know.

So, it is possible that either the polls are overstating Biden support, or the %s will shift before election day in favour of Trump. Of course, neither of those could be correct. Interestingly, Trump is now running ahead of where he was in 2016 in the RCP battleground polls (+0.7% as of now https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states-2020-vs-2016/ ), but how this translates to the dynamics of this race is a fair question.

If I were only going by polls, I would say Biden is >50% likely to win at this point.

What factors favor Trump?

1. Ground game. The Trump campaign is far ahead of the Biden campaign in door-knocking, which is the "most consistently effective and efficient method of voter mobilization" according to this article https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/trump-s-winning-voter-registration-battle-against-biden-key-states-n1241674 . Also, the Trump campaign is doing relatively well so far in voter registration numbers in key states ("Republicans have swamped Democrats in adding new voters to the rolls, a dramatic GOP improvement over 2016", same link).

The massive rallies have a question mark next to them - will Trump recover from COVID-19 in time? Will he continue to do rallies? My guess is yes. Meanwhile, Biden finally started doing some barnstorming with a train trip, but then promptly called 2 morning lids (approx. 35% of his days in September had morning lids). What's up? Who knows.

2. Recent campaign maneuvers. Biden campaign has recently started door-knocking, after swearing off of it for a significant time. Which states did they start with? PA and MI are predictable. But NH and NV? Those are a bit of head-scratchers. Similarly, where has Trump been campaigning? NV, MN, VA, and WI (among other states one would predict based on the public polls). If the campaigns' internal poll numbers are matching the public ones, this doesn't make a lot of sense. Either the Trump campaign is miscalculating and the Biden campaign playing it very safe, or the numbers are tighter than the public poll averages we have.

3. Enthusiasm. No one is really for Biden, but Trump has an enthused base.

4. Incumbency. Being an incumbent is generally seen as an advantage for various reasons. One example we can see recently is the normalization agreements between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain, which had signing ceremonies at the White House.

5. Improving economy. Unemployment dropped again in Sep., from 8.4% -> 7.9% ( https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/september-jobs-report-coronavirus-pandemic-2020 ). No modern incumbent President has lost while employment numbers were improving, except Gerald Ford. Ford, however, was never elected in the first place.

6. Related, COVID-19 daily mortalities continue to drop for the U.S., while documented cases have been holding steady for some time. Therapeutics are improving, a significant % of the country has school back up and running, the disease might be becoming less deadly over time, and doctors have become more familiar with how to handle it.

A significant question mark at this point is the vacant Supreme Court seat. The timeline for this is uncertain, and its effects on who will vote and how in the Presidential election are not clear to me.

Similarly, the effects of Trump's recent COVID-19 diagnosis are unclear at this point. It looks like he is making a quick recovery, but how that effects future campaigning, and voters' perceptions of Trump remains unclear to me.

All in all, a multi-faceted appraisal of the election leaves me with no change in the %s. I will probably update this with 2 weeks to go.

For my previous update from Sep. 3rd, see here

https://270soft.ipbhost.com/topic/17907-admins-election-prediction-update/

 

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With 1 month to go, it's time to update my election prediction. In my last update on Oct. 3rd, I shifted my % from 80% -> 85% likely Trump wins re-election, and I expect this number to go to 0

Put me in the boring non-prediction 50/50 corner, but that's where I'm at.  It's truly a coin flip for me on how it's going to turn out.  Biden will undoubtedly outperform 2016 Hillary Clinton, but th

Although polls cannot be relied upon entirely, it is important to remember that Biden is not Hillary. His approvals are much better than hers, and Biden appeals to critical voting demographics that Hi

56 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

With 1 month to go, it's time to update my election prediction.

In my last update on Oct. 3rd, I shifted my % from 80% -> 85% likely Trump wins re-election, and I expect this number to go to 0 or 100 as we get closer to the election. I do not intend to predict 50-50, for that isn't a prediction at all - it's a non-prediction.

My new prediction is 85% -> 85% Trump.

Why no change?

On the one hand, as we get closer to the election, polls become more relevant, and the polls favour Biden.

On the other hand, basically everything else favours Trump.

Let's talk about polls first.

1. Forget national polls - they would be useful if the Presidency was won by popular vote, or if we didn't have battleground polls. As it is, neither clause holds. If Biden receives 100% of the vote in California, it still only gets him as many EC seats as if he had won 50.1% of the vote in California, but it would give him a 5% increase nationally (California has about 10% of the country's population). If we see significant shifts in national poll % averages, that would suggest shifts in battleground polls, but outside of this, they are of secondary usefulness.

2. Battleground polls favor Biden. Biden is +2 in FL, +6.5 in PA, +5 in MI, +0.5 in NC, +3 in AZ, even +0.3 in GA (!) according to the latest RCP averages. (Note that RCP was more accurate in key state averages than 538 in 2016. 538 has revamped its methodologies, but whether this translates into higher accuracy is an open question at this point.)

If you take these battleground poll averages at face value, Trump has a difficult row to hoe in 2020.

Yet, we know that some battleground poll averages were significantly off in 2016. Clinton was +3.6 in MI (actual result Trump +0.3), +2.1 in PA (actual result Trump +0.7), and Trump was +2.2 in OH (actual result Trump +8.1) going into election night. People not telling pollsters their real preference? Late breaking undecideds? Methodological issues with the polls? We actually don't know. Trafalgar was closest of all the pollsters in MI and PA, Emerson in OH. Should we listen more carefully to those pollsters this time around, or were they just lucky in 2016 for those states? We don't know.

So, it is possible that either the polls are overstating Biden support, or the %s will shift before election day in favour of Trump. Of course, neither of those could be correct. Interestingly, Trump is now running ahead of where he was in 2016 in the RCP battleground polls (+0.7% as of now https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states-2020-vs-2016/ ), but how this translates to the dynamics of this race is a fair question.

If I were only going by polls, I would say Biden is >50% likely to win at this point.

What factors favor Trump?

1. Ground game. The Trump campaign is far ahead of the Biden campaign in door-knocking, which is the "most consistently effective and efficient method of voter mobilization" according to this article https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/trump-s-winning-voter-registration-battle-against-biden-key-states-n1241674 . Also, the Trump campaign is doing relatively well so far in voter registration numbers in key states ("Republicans have swamped Democrats in adding new voters to the rolls, a dramatic GOP improvement over 2016", same link).

The massive rallies have a question mark next to them - will Trump recover from COVID-19 in time? Will he continue to do rallies? My guess is yes. Meanwhile, Biden finally started doing some barnstorming with a train trip, but then promptly called 2 morning lids (approx. 35% of his days in September had morning lids). What's up? Who knows.

2. Recent campaign maneuvers. Biden campaign has recently started door-knocking, after swearing off of it for a significant time. Which states did they start with? PA and MI are predictable. But NH and NV? Those are a bit of head-scratchers. Similarly, where has Trump been campaigning? NV, MN, VA, and WI (among other states one would predict based on the public polls). If the campaigns' internal poll numbers are matching the public ones, this doesn't make a lot of sense. Either the Trump campaign is miscalculating and the Biden campaign playing it very safe, or the numbers are tighter than the public poll averages we have.

3. Enthusiasm. No one is really for Biden, but Trump has an enthused base.

4. Incumbency. Being an incumbent is generally seen as an advantage for various reasons. One example we can see recently is the normalization agreements between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain, which had signing ceremonies at the White House.

5. Improving economy. Unemployment dropped again in Sep., from 8.4% -> 7.9% ( https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/september-jobs-report-coronavirus-pandemic-2020 ). No modern incumbent President has lost while employment numbers were improving, except Gerald Ford. Ford, however, was never elected in the first place.

6. Related, COVID-19 daily mortalities continue to drop for the U.S., while documented cases have been holding steady for some time. Therapeutics are improving, a significant % of the country has school back up and running, the disease might be becoming less deadly over time, and doctors have become more familiar with how to handle it.

A significant question mark at this point is the vacant Supreme Court seat. The timeline for this is uncertain, and its effects on who will vote and how in the Presidential election are not clear to me.

Similarly, the effects of Trump's recent COVID-19 diagnosis are unclear at this point. It looks like he is making a quick recovery, but how that effects future campaigning, and voters' perceptions of Trump remains unclear to me.

All in all, a multi-faceted appraisal of the election leaves me with no change in the %s. I will probably update this with 2 weeks to go.

For my previous update from Sep. 3rd, see here

https://270soft.ipbhost.com/topic/17907-admins-election-prediction-update/

 

A rather unique stance as compared to most people that are close observers of this race. 

538 has an 81% chance Biden. Betting markets are 61% Biden. The Economist is 89%. I'm at 95%. This means I think there's a 5% chance that the state polling is so far off in key states that Trump loses. I don't think he gains ground minus a October Surprise for Biden. If an October Surprise hits Biden, then I'll adjust my 95%

In regards to enthusiasm, I do agree Trump's supporters (43% or whatever they are) are more enthusiastic than Biden's supporters (50%+ or whatever they are). Biden's lead might be so much that a 100% guarantee of all Trump supporters voting and only 85% of Biden supporters voting might not even be enough to beat him. One also has to factor in the enthusiasm for beating Trump. There has never been an incumbent president in US History that the majority of the voters have been more eager to dethrone. In historical landslides against incumbents, the appealing challenger against an incumbent was the cause of such defeats. This is a unique situation. The incumbent has never been popular for a second of his presidency, never averaging more than 45% approval. He is greatly disliked, even hated. His disapproval has been above 50% for almost 4 years. Democrats, moderates, and left-leaning voters are fueled--energized--by our chances to unseat a god awful person. I think you are underestimating this enthusiasm. The Dem nominee does not matter. He's just tool we've been given to bludgeon the orange beast. You'd see any of the other Democratic nominees beating Trump in the polls right now, except maybe Williamson or Gabbard. 

None of the points you make seem particularly convincing. Points #1 and points #2 might be your strongest points, but Biden's lead might be such that this hardly matters. He's got double the lead that Clinton has and, unlike Clinton, he's been consistent. In regards to the economy, it isn't recovering fast enough. Jobs aren't coming back fast enough. The right kind of jobs aren't coming back fast enough. He's only got a month.

Some of the polls are really worrying for Trump. Who knows if the polls will get seconded, but an A- poll gave Biden a +14 lead on Trump--to get that you have to have an increase of support in battleground states too. One that might support that, is a poll just released an hour ago: Biden is up +8 in Arizona. Again, these polls have to be seconded, but if Trump were well on his way to reelection, these polls, even if they are outliers, wouldn't occasionally exist. Where are the outlier polls with Trump winning? We haven't any. Those happened regularly in 2016. The polls can't be THIS off in 2020. There must be some semblance of truth in the polls, especially highly rated polls. 

You also don't factor in the stories of Biden signs proliferating in Trump areas---places that would never see a Clinton sign. What about the polls showing Trump's lead in white male voters decreasing from, say 20% to 2%? 

You're entitled to your instincts, of course, but evidence and signs seem so overwhelming in favor of Biden that's it's like predicting one will survive cancer when their body is covered in black splotches and every doctor is saying that the patient will be dead within a day or so. On top of this, Democrats will not be complacent. They know all too well what happened last time. No one that doesn't already like Trump wants hear him again. As Jim Carrey said of Trump, we can't wait to "bask in the Trumplessness" of 2021. 

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1 hour ago, admin_270 said:

With 1 month to go, it's time to update my election prediction.

In my last update on Oct. 3rd, I shifted my % from 80% -> 85% likely Trump wins re-election, and I expect this number to go to 0 or 100 as we get closer to the election. I do not intend to predict 50-50, for that isn't a prediction at all - it's a non-prediction.

My new prediction is 85% -> 85% Trump.

Why no change?

On the one hand, as we get closer to the election, polls become more relevant, and the polls favour Biden.

On the other hand, basically everything else favours Trump.

Let's talk about polls first.

1. Forget national polls - they would be useful if the Presidency was won by popular vote, or if we didn't have battleground polls. As it is, neither clause holds. If Biden receives 100% of the vote in California, it still only gets him as many EC seats as if he had won 50.1% of the vote in California, but it would give him a 5% increase nationally (California has about 10% of the country's population). If we see significant shifts in national poll % averages, that would suggest shifts in battleground polls, but outside of this, they are of secondary usefulness.

2. Battleground polls favor Biden. Biden is +2 in FL, +6.5 in PA, +5 in MI, +0.5 in NC, +3 in AZ, even +0.3 in GA (!) according to the latest RCP averages. (Note that RCP was more accurate in key state averages than 538 in 2016. 538 has revamped its methodologies, but whether this translates into higher accuracy is an open question at this point.)

If you take these battleground poll averages at face value, Trump has a difficult row to hoe in 2020.

Yet, we know that some battleground poll averages were significantly off in 2016. Clinton was +3.6 in MI (actual result Trump +0.3), +2.1 in PA (actual result Trump +0.7), and Trump was +2.2 in OH (actual result Trump +8.1) going into election night. People not telling pollsters their real preference? Late breaking undecideds? Methodological issues with the polls? We actually don't know. Trafalgar was closest of all the pollsters in MI and PA, Emerson in OH. Should we listen more carefully to those pollsters this time around, or were they just lucky in 2016 for those states? We don't know.

So, it is possible that either the polls are overstating Biden support, or the %s will shift before election day in favour of Trump. Of course, neither of those could be correct. Interestingly, Trump is now running ahead of where he was in 2016 in the RCP battleground polls (+0.7% as of now https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states-2020-vs-2016/ ), but how this translates to the dynamics of this race is a fair question.

If I were only going by polls, I would say Biden is >50% likely to win at this point.

What factors favor Trump?

1. Ground game. The Trump campaign is far ahead of the Biden campaign in door-knocking, which is the "most consistently effective and efficient method of voter mobilization" according to this article https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/trump-s-winning-voter-registration-battle-against-biden-key-states-n1241674 . Also, the Trump campaign is doing relatively well so far in voter registration numbers in key states ("Republicans have swamped Democrats in adding new voters to the rolls, a dramatic GOP improvement over 2016", same link).

The massive rallies have a question mark next to them - will Trump recover from COVID-19 in time? Will he continue to do rallies? My guess is yes. Meanwhile, Biden finally started doing some barnstorming with a train trip, but then promptly called 2 morning lids (approx. 35% of his days in September had morning lids). What's up? Who knows.

2. Recent campaign maneuvers. Biden campaign has recently started door-knocking, after swearing off of it for a significant time. Which states did they start with? PA and MI are predictable. But NH and NV? Those are a bit of head-scratchers. Similarly, where has Trump been campaigning? NV, MN, VA, and WI (among other states one would predict based on the public polls). If the campaigns' internal poll numbers are matching the public ones, this doesn't make a lot of sense. Either the Trump campaign is miscalculating and the Biden campaign playing it very safe, or the numbers are tighter than the public poll averages we have.

3. Enthusiasm. No one is really for Biden, but Trump has an enthused base.

4. Incumbency. Being an incumbent is generally seen as an advantage for various reasons. One example we can see recently is the normalization agreements between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain, which had signing ceremonies at the White House.

5. Improving economy. Unemployment dropped again in Sep., from 8.4% -> 7.9% ( https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/september-jobs-report-coronavirus-pandemic-2020 ). No modern incumbent President has lost while employment numbers were improving, except Gerald Ford. Ford, however, was never elected in the first place.

6. Related, COVID-19 daily mortalities continue to drop for the U.S., while documented cases have been holding steady for some time. Therapeutics are improving, a significant % of the country has school back up and running, the disease might be becoming less deadly over time, and doctors have become more familiar with how to handle it.

A significant question mark at this point is the vacant Supreme Court seat. The timeline for this is uncertain, and its effects on who will vote and how in the Presidential election are not clear to me.

Similarly, the effects of Trump's recent COVID-19 diagnosis are unclear at this point. It looks like he is making a quick recovery, but how that effects future campaigning, and voters' perceptions of Trump remains unclear to me.

All in all, a multi-faceted appraisal of the election leaves me with no change in the %s. I will probably update this with 2 weeks to go.

For my previous update from Sep. 3rd, see here

https://270soft.ipbhost.com/topic/17907-admins-election-prediction-update/

 

Put me in the boring non-prediction 50/50 corner, but that's where I'm at.  It's truly a coin flip for me on how it's going to turn out.  Biden will undoubtedly outperform 2016 Hillary Clinton, but that might not matter if Trump and his allies do their best to interfere in having an actual election at all, with actual outcomes.  

Enthusiasm:  Black voters are extremely enthused for Biden -- that's how he became the nominee in the first place.  And the rest of us are enthused for Not Trump, Jesus Christ, Anybody But Trump.

Incumbency: I guarantee that most voters have not heard a single word about Israel in years.  They have a global pandemic at their grocery store, they don't have time to even remember what UAE stands for.

Improving Economy:  Maybe.  I just checked, and my retirement account has lost more than $12,000 since the pandemic begin impacting us in March.  That's despite continuing to put more money into it every month.  I'm still relatively young, plenty of time to make it back -- but I won't have that 12k back by election day.

COVID's impact on the Supreme Court:  This is the real curveball (other than whether Trump will actually acknowledge the election happened at all).  If RBG was replaced before the election took place, as was the original plan, that would hurt Trump -- Republicans who don't like him would feel reassured by their dominance of the Supreme Court, and could afford to part with him.  But with the COVID outbreak within the Senate, it's possible confirmation will not take place until after the election.  That's bad news for us Democrats as "preferably not Trump" Republican voters may feel the need to stick with him to get the Supreme Court seat now.  And it doesn't do us any good to wait until after the election, because McConnell and his Senate aren't going to just shrug and let the Supreme Court seat go if they get defeated on election day -- they'll make sure the seat is confirmed in the interim.  

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Although polls cannot be relied upon entirely, it is important to remember that Biden is not Hillary. His approvals are much better than hers, and Biden appeals to critical voting demographics that Hillary alienated. 

Also, although Trump did beat expectations in 2016, it wasn’t by much. His wins in the Midwest were razor-thin, which means even a microscopic drop in enthusiasm or approval would be enough to doom his campaign.

Trump has a challenging road to victory. He needs to hurt Biden’s credibility among independents and critical voting demographics (blue collar workers primarily). He needs to hold together his voting base, and bring back everyone who has turned away from him in the previous four years. He needs to return the discussion to winning issues (Economy, Biden’s Mental Health, Social Conservatism, Foreign Policy Success) and away from damaging topics (COVID, Tax Returns, Economic Failures, Unemployment). This is all possible, but by no means an easy feat.

Overall, I think Trump has a 1/3 to 1/4 chance of winning over Biden. He has a mediocre chance, as an incumbent with a bland opponent and recovering economy. Still, the chaos of 2020 has no doubt done some damage to Trump’s base, which (as 2016 has shown) cannot afford even a .5% dip without losing the White House. Trump may overcome his obstacles to win a second term, but I don’t believe it is the more likely outcome. Trump winning would be a surprise, not an expected result.

 

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Results aside, one disturbing trend I’m seeing in conservative and liberal sectors is growing distrust in the election process. I’ve heard conservatives talking about how Democrats plan to rig the election with fraudulent ballots. I’ve heard liberals talking about how Republicans plan to rig the election by throwing out democrat voters’ ballots.

When our voting system is causing people to preemptively distrust the results, there is a clear and endemic problem. I don’t know the solution, but what we have currently is certainly not working.

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  • 3 minutes ago, Zenobiyl said:

     

    When our voting system is causing people to preemptively distrust the results, there is a clear and endemic problem. I don’t know the solution, but what we have currently is certainly not working.

    The voting system is not causing anything.  The doubt, on both sides, is being fueled both by Trump's comments and his behavior.

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I just remember Biden outperforming the SC polls and was just scratching my head how well demographic wise he did w certain people. 

 

I think Biden is going to over perform w white suburban female voters and older voters. At the same time, I think Trump's base has only increased since 2016 and the shy Trump voter is a legitimate base that will probably give Trump an extra 2-3% more than he had in 2016. While polls are questionable, Biden's Hispanic and Black votes right now look awful compared to Clinton. Despite the "Rapists, crime" talk from Trump in 2016, he did great w Hispanics then and that's only increasing. I wonder if despite "BLM" Trump's Black vote will do the same. But if Biden does well w white suburbans, it might just off set in swing states. 

 

The biggest point you make is that Trump currently is .7 better than he was in 2016 at this time. That's big. Despite COVID, riots, race relations, etc he's still doing better than 2016? Shocking.

 

I think Trump will probably win. Despite what people said, I actually believe the 1st debate helped Trump. He may have turned off some voters, but no one who is undecided saw that debate and believed Biden was the answer watching him passively do nothing. If anything it'll just be less people voting. I think his next 2 debates if he can tone down the interrupting will be critically important to him. 

 

Also I'm a big believer that the VP debates are important too. Biden and Pence both saved their candidates in 2016-2012 with fantastic tone setting debates. Kamala is scary good at debates so we'll see if pence can rise to the challenge. 

 

Lots of time left but Trump missing a few days worth of rallies is bad, but on the other hand I'm sure his favorability has gone up since he got COVID. If he sprints the last week or two of the campaign doing 5-6 rallies like 2016 he might be able to win it. I don't know how Biden can get away w basically doing nothing the last 3 months rally wise and still win these swing states while Trump is working 24/7. 

 

And I have no doubt Trump will call the election for himself on election day (provided he does win Texas) causing mass chaos. The real fight is coming up when the mail in starts. Buckle up. 

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18 minutes ago, Zenobiyl said:

Results aside, one disturbing trend I’m seeing in conservative and liberal sectors is growing distrust in the election process. I’ve heard conservatives talking about how Democrats plan to rig the election with fraudulent ballots. I’ve heard liberals talking about how Republicans plan to rig the election by throwing out democrat voters’ ballots.

When our voting system is causing people to preemptively distrust the results, there is a clear and endemic problem. I don’t know the solution, but what we have currently is certainly not working.

Going to be a disaster.

 

Despite pressure to the contrary, I do think Biden will throw in the flag if this goes on longer than a week or two. Like Gore. Clinton would fight till the end of January, but Biden just seems sorta.. tired. 

 

Trump though will act like a crazy man unless he literally loses every swing state and the polls are accurate. 

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Thanks for this comment - lots of good points, although perhaps as would have guessed none that I haven't thought of. Of course the consensus is that Biden is way ahead, but I'm a stubbornly independent thinker. 😀 I don't really care about the consensus, as many consensuses prove false. I care about specific reasons and the evidence behind them.

1 hour ago, vcczar said:

but evidence and signs seem so overwhelming in favor of Biden

If by this you mean poll numbers, I agree. There's little beyond that. Some anecdotal reports of Biden signs where there weren't Clinton signs are interesting, and I'm interested in whether there's a trend in various battleground states, but on its own this doesn't seem convincing of much to me. Of course there are going to be localized shifts in voter sentiment. I would want to see a much more comprehensive analysis of this.

1 hour ago, vcczar said:

Democrats will not be complacent.

Calling morning lids 35% of the time in Sep. and not doing any door-knocking until last week seems like complacency to me. You yourself dismiss the morning lids with 'who cares, we're ahead in the polls'. If I were a Dem, I would want the Biden campaign firing on every cylinder it could, not conceding the ground game to the Trump campaign for 2 months.

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1 hour ago, Actinguy said:

Black voters are extremely enthused for Biden -- that's how he became the nominee in the first place.

It's not clear to me if they are enthused for him, or merely tended to vote for him in the primaries. What evidence do you have this goes to being genuinely 'extremely enthused' about him?

 

1 hour ago, Actinguy said:

COVID's impact on the Supreme Court:  This is the real curveball (other than whether Trump will actually acknowledge the election happened at all).  If RBG was replaced before the election took place, as was the original plan, that would hurt Trump -- Republicans who don't like him would feel reassured by their dominance of the Supreme Court, and could afford to part with him.  But with the COVID outbreak within the Senate, it's possible confirmation will not take place until after the election.  That's bad news for us Democrats as "preferably not Trump" Republican voters may feel the need to stick with him to get the Supreme Court seat now.  And it doesn't do us any good to wait until after the election, because McConnell and his Senate aren't going to just shrug and let the Supreme Court seat go if they get defeated on election day -- they'll make sure the seat is confirmed in the interim.

Interesting analysis - not having Barrett confirmed until after the election very well may help Trump. Note that if it's after, no Rep Senator will have to vote on it before the election.

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1 minute ago, admin_270 said:

It's not clear to me if they are enthused for him, or merely tended to vote for him in the primaries. What evidence do you have this goes to being genuinely 'extremely enthused' about him?

What kind of evidence would you accept, if not the overwhelming support of black voters carrying him through the primaries when there were 20 some other options?

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51 minutes ago, PoliticalPundit said:

I just remember Biden outperforming the SC polls and was just scratching my head how well demographic wise he did w certain people. 

 

I think Biden is going to over perform w white suburban female voters and older voters. At the same time, I think Trump's base has only increased since 2016 and the shy Trump voter is a legitimate base that will probably give Trump an extra 2-3% more than he had in 2016. While polls are questionable, Biden's Hispanic and Black votes right now look awful compared to Clinton. Despite the "Rapists, crime" talk from Trump in 2016, he did great w Hispanics then and that's only increasing. I wonder if despite "BLM" Trump's Black vote will do the same. But if Biden does well w white suburbans, it might just off set in swing states. 

 

The biggest point you make is that Trump currently is .7 better than he was in 2016 at this time. That's big. Despite COVID, riots, race relations, etc he's still doing better than 2016? Shocking.

 

I think Trump will probably win. Despite what people said, I actually believe the 1st debate helped Trump. He may have turned off some voters, but no one who is undecided saw that debate and believed Biden was the answer watching him passively do nothing. If anything it'll just be less people voting. I think his next 2 debates if he can tone down the interrupting will be critically important to him. 

 

Also I'm a big believer that the VP debates are important too. Biden and Pence both saved their candidates in 2016-2012 with fantastic tone setting debates. Kamala is scary good at debates so we'll see if pence can rise to the challenge. 

 

Lots of time left but Trump missing a few days worth of rallies is bad, but on the other hand I'm sure his favorability has gone up since he got COVID. If he sprints the last week or two of the campaign doing 5-6 rallies like 2016 he might be able to win it. I don't know how Biden can get away w basically doing nothing the last 3 months rally wise and still win these swing states while Trump is working 24/7. 

 

And I have no doubt Trump will call the election for himself on election day (provided he does win Texas) causing mass chaos. The real fight is coming up when the mail in starts. Buckle up. 

Thanks for this comment - lots of interesting points.

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1 minute ago, Actinguy said:

What kind of evidence would you accept, if not the overwhelming support of black voters carrying him through the primaries when there were 20 some other options?

Polls gauging enthusiasm (not merely preferences) by ethnic group would be a big start.

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7 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Calling morning lids 35% of the time in Sep. and not doing any door-knocking until last week seems like complacency to me. You yourself dismiss the morning lids with 'who cares, we're ahead in the polls'. If I were a Dem, I would want the Biden campaign firing on every cylinder it could, not conceding the ground game to the Trump campaign for 2 months.

It isn't just that we are ahead in the polls. We're in a pandemic. It goes against Biden's message to send supporters or encourage supporters to go up to people's doors. I do get Biden stuff in the mail every day, often the same information. This might be replacing door knocking. I haven't seen a single thing about Trump in my mail box. I've had probably 50+ Biden pamphlets and etc in the last two months. Zero from Trump. Ads on television are about 7 Biden ads to every Trump ad. They're maximizing turnout. I'm not sure if this is the case elsewhere.

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Just now, admin_270 said:

Polls gauging enthusiasm (not merely preferences) by ethnic group would be a big start.

Most of those polls, frankly, suck. Latino voters arent a monolith and look different in every state. Most of Black voters often overpoll Black Republicans as well.

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Just now, vcczar said:

It goes against Biden's message to send supporters or encourage supporters to go up to people's doors.

Yet now he's doing it ...

1 minute ago, vcczar said:

I do get Biden stuff in the mail every day, often the same information. This might be replacing door knocking. I haven't seen a single thing about Trump in my mail box. I've had probably 50+ Biden pamphlets and etc in the last two months.

Interesting that you haven't received anything from the Trump campaign (although TBH it sounds like a significant waste of resources to be sending you that much mail). 

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2 minutes ago, vcczar said:

It isn't just that we are ahead in the polls. We're in a pandemic. It goes against Biden's message to send supporters or encourage supporters to go up to people's doors. I do get Biden stuff in the mail every day, often the same information. This might be replacing door knocking. I haven't seen a single thing about Trump in my mail box. I've had probably 50+ Biden pamphlets and etc in the last two months. Zero from Trump. Ads on television are about 7 Biden ads to every Trump ad. They're maximizing turnout. I'm not sure if this is the case elsewhere.

Pretty sure that's because you've either donated or signed up for something on a Biden campaign site or something. I've gotten nothing in the mail from either candidate.

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Just now, admin_270 said:

Yet now he's doing it ...

Interesting that you haven't received anything from the Trump campaign (although TBH it sounds like a significant waste of resources to be sending you that much mail). 

It is a waste of resources to send it to me, considering I've already voted by mail for Biden. I remember Clinton was blamed for being too conservative with money and resources. Biden seems to be doing the opposite. 

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1 minute ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

Pretty sure that's because you've either donated or signed up for something on a Biden campaign site or something. I've gotten nothing in the mail from either candidate.

I'm not sure what the point is in sending pamphlets to someone that's donated. If one donates, they're presumably voting for them. 

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1 minute ago, ThePotatoWalrus said:

Pretty sure that's because you've either donated or signed up for something on a Biden campaign site or something. I've gotten nothing in the mail from either candidate.

Could differ state by state. We've not signed up for anything, yet our mailbox is always stuffed full of Greenfield stuff (though an Ernst one isnt an uncommon occurence either).

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1 hour ago, Zenobiyl said:

Results aside, one disturbing trend I’m seeing in conservative and liberal sectors is growing distrust in the election process. I’ve heard conservatives talking about how Democrats plan to rig the election with fraudulent ballots. I’ve heard liberals talking about how Republicans plan to rig the election by throwing out democrat voters’ ballots.

When our voting system is causing people to preemptively distrust the results, there is a clear and endemic problem. I don’t know the solution, but what we have currently is certainly not working.

Agreed 100%.  If the authorities in charge of monitoring this election process do not get/maintain clear and transparent control over the electoral process, we are going to see chaos in the streets between November and January.  I will die on the hill that the mail-in ballots need to be counted by election night, or the day after.  Letting tensions simmer over what is perceived to be a rather opaque process is going to only pour gasoline on the fire of distrust in the electoral system.

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24 minutes ago, CPE said:

Agreed 100%.  If the authorities in charge of monitoring this election process do not get/maintain clear and transparent control over the electoral process, we are going to see chaos in the streets between November and January.  I will die on the hill that the mail-in ballots need to be counted by election night, or the day after.  Letting tensions simmer over what is perceived to be a rather opaque process is going to only pour gasoline on the fire of distrust in the electoral system.

While that would be a good result, that simply isn't how mail-in ballots work. It takes a long process to make sure that the ballot matches everything on record, and to do security checks. If those aren't followed, it will be even messier than waiting for those mail-in ballots to be processed. Everyone's vote should be counted - it doesn't matter if you're voting in person or not. It's your vote - that's the most American thing there is. If it takes longer to check them correctly, then that is what has to happen. Plus, Republicans don't want ballots counted *before* the election either, which would decrease strain upon the clerks that have to do all the counting on election night. So it can't be both and everything happens perfectly anyway, either they need to be allowed to be counted earlier, or they need more time after the election to count them. 

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anecdotally speaking, I've seen countless people on both sides complaining/happy that they see so many Trump signs in neighborhoods in swing states. 

 

And does the campaigning (polling aside) seem eerily similar to 2016? Clinton was making a play for TEXAS trying to run up the score and not once went to Wisconsin (or was it Michigan? I forget). Biden is doing 0 rallies every day and Clinton could barely muster 2-3 rallies in the last week of campaigning meanwhile Trump was going to like 6 states ending rallies at 3am. Obviously w his COVID I dont see it happening but Democrats will be kicking themselves for how poorly they've run the campaign/door knocking/ground game IF Trump wins. 

 

I just go back to Iowa, NH, Nevada where Democrats overwhelmingly rejected Biden. Is enthusiasm against Trump going to cause record numbers for Biden to win? We shall see. 

 

At the same time, Trump still has not found a cohesive message in 2020. He did far better w Clinton, but his best bet is to continue to push how radical a Biden administration would be w AOC/Bernie shadowing it (even if that's not the case). I truly don't think the anti China stuff is working effectively and whenever we're getting into petty "Biden's son was on cocaine" stories it's not doing anything. 

 

The debates like in 2016 are critical. The media can manipulate and shift narratives/identities however they want but people just go with their gut seeing the 2 people head to head. 

 

And like @admin_270 I just straight up don't believe polls. Just saw a clip in 2016 on ABC/GMA where the pollster is talking about enthusiasm and has Clinton at 50% and Trump had 38%. 38%!! And this was like a few weeks before the election. People like Nate Silver are con-artists relying solely on polls to make BS articles then claiming victory no matter who wins. 

 

 I'm curious what your thoughts @admin_270 are on the potential for corruption in mail in voting is. 

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