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State of the Race: 29 Days Left


29 Day Poll  

26 members have voted

  1. 1. See the Data in the First Post: Who do you think wins if the election were today?

  2. 2. What was your opinion of Trump ordering his driver and secret service to take him on a drive to greet fans standing outside Walter Reed Hospital?

    • I approve of the move. It's campaign season. It encourages him to get better. It makes his fans happy. That outweighs the strong change that he infected everyone in the car that was with him.
    • This was both reckless and stupid. He strongly risked infecting those with him. It highlights his lack of empathy of people other than himself, his recklessness, and his overall lack of thought.
  3. 3. In a hospital video on Twitter, Trump says "he learned a lot" about the Coronavirus, and now "he gets it." Which of the two most captures your reaction to this?

    • Great! He'll turn this pandemic around quickly now and help a lot of people. I really think he's changed.
    • Sorry, this is too little too late. This kind of comment just shows that he can't empathize unless something happens to him personally.
  4. 4. Do you think Trump's spokesperson's, including White House doctors, are being transparent on Trump's condition?

    • Yes.
    • No, Trump is healthier than they say he is.
    • No, Trump is trying to play strong and active, but he's sicker than he's pretending to be, although not significantly so.
    • No, considering his age and weight, Trump is going to have lingering health issues for a few weeks as is the case with many older adults that survive Covid.
    • No, he's doing whatever he can to appear very much alive, but his health is probably critical.
  5. 5. Who are you voting for in November?

    • I am not old enough to vote.
    • I cannot vote because I don't like in the US or don't have citizenship.
    • I am a US citizen and old enough to vote, but I am not registered.
      0
    • Trump
    • Biden
    • 3rd Party
    • I am registered to vote in the US, but I will not vote.
      0
    • I am registered to vote in the US, but I am still undecided.
      0


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As usual, Blue trends for Biden and Red trends for Trump.

Better day for movement for Trump than Biden, despite Biden still maintaining a +8 national avg on Trump.

Trump saw big increases in AK and IA, nearly a point increase in TX, and a half point increase in MT and OH.

Biden sees a half a point shift up in Florida. 

Trump's approval is back up in the 44% range. 

One A- Poll has Biden leading Trump by +14. If this were true, Biden would be looking at about 400 EVs. 

While Biden holds a slight lead over Trump in the avg poll in OH, it's within my Trump handicap range, so OH is flipped back to Lean R. 

Categories 28 Days Left A Week Ago 100 Days Left
Gen Avg Biden 8.0 (-0.2) Biden +0.9 Biden 0
AK avg Trump 5.8 (+1.8) Trump +1.3 Trump +1.0
AZ avg Biden 3.4 (-0.2) Biden -0.2 Biden +0.5
FL avg Biden 2.9 (+0.6) Biden +1.1 Biden -4.7
GA avg Biden (+0.1) Biden +1.7 Biden +1.4
IA avg Trump 1.4 (+1.1) Trump +0.7 Trump +1.1
MI Avg Biden 6.9 (-0.3) Biden 0 Biden -0.5
MN avg Biden 9.1 (-0.1) Biden +0.3 Biden -2.0
MO avg Trump 6.4 (+0.2) Trump -0.3 Trump +0.9
MT avg Trump 8.3 (+0.6) Trump -0.3 Trump -2.4
NV avg Biden 6.0 (-0.1) Biden -0.5 Biden -0.7
NH Avg Biden 9.5 (+0.3) Biden +2.6 Biden +2.0
NC avg Biden 1.4 (+0.1) Biden +0.3 Biden -0.8
OH avg Biden 0.7 (-0.7) Biden -0.3 Biden -1.4
PA Avg Biden 6.0 (+0.2) Biden +0.6 Biden -0.8
SC avg Trump 5.7 (0) Trump -1.9 Trump -0.9
TX avg Trump 2.4 (+0.8) Trump +0.6 Trump +2.4
WI Avg Biden 6.8 (-0.1) Biden +0.1 Biden -0.3
Trump Approval 44.2 (+0.5) 0.5 4
Trump Disapproval 52.3 (-0.6) -0.2 -3.4
Favorability Biden 15.0 (-0.1) Biden -0.8 Biden +3.4
Direction of the Country -34.8 (0) 0 10.7
Generic Ballot Dem 6.6 (0) Dem +0.6 Dem -2.0
Betting Markets Biden 61.0 (-0.3) Biden +6.1 Biden +0.3
Clinton vs. Trump 2016 GE Clinton +4    
Biden vs Clinton GE Polls Biden +4    

LnlDg.png

 

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While I'm glad that Trump is changing his rhetoric on COVID, it's way too late. The federal government should've been on states more to do the right thing, including mask mandates and being more careful with school openings. Just throwing up your hands as a federal government and saying, "We can't do anything!" isn't really a good strategy. 

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11 minutes ago, SilentLiberty said:

I'm looking forward to voting L for president, L for senate, and D for the house. Let's go Eastman!

You don't know how surprised I am by that. Why Eastman but not the others (I do know the D Senate candidate is godawful, so I get that lol)? 

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1 minute ago, Hestia11 said:

You don't know how surprised I am by that. Why Eastman but not the others (I do know the D Senate candidate is godawful, so I get that lol)? 

I voted for Johnson in 2016 so voting for Jorgensen isn't a change at all. In 2018 I voted for Raybould over Fischer. I also voted for Krist over Ricketts for governor. However I didn't vote for Eastman or Bacon in 2018.

This time around I flipped on the senate race a few times. I had originally supported Sasse but I feel like he sold out and isn't interested in policies that Nebraska and Nebraskan's need. So I ended up supporting Shelton in the dem primary and was hopeful she'd be the write in candidate for the dems, when she wasn't it solidified my support for the libertarian party for senate.

Basically I don't feel like the GOP in Nebraska is in touch with a good solid majority of it's voters. At least certainly not the eastern part of the state, so if we can send Eastman to the house and make waves voting for other people in the senate race it might send a message that yeah we're a red state but we'd certainly like some common sense blue policies. 

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My god, I have a lot of typos in this poll. I feel like I'm mentally deteriorating. 

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2 is something in the middle of both for me. 

There are kamikaze like people who probably volunteer for such a mission. 

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4 minutes ago, Conservative Elector 2 said:

2 is something in the middle of both for me. 

There are kamikaze like people who probably volunteer for such a mission. 

Can you clear out a message or two from the inbox so I can dm?

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Just now, anti-trump said:

Can you clear out a message or two from the inbox so I can dm?

@Messages ConservativeE2

I have an account for this ;)

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1 hour ago, admin_270 said:

Biden called a lid yesterday morning. Not that libs care!

 

Yeah we really dont. Plus it was Sunday, which has been pointed out as a short day before.

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"That outweighs the strong change that he infected everyone in the car that was with him."

A bit of a loaded option. Not clear there is a 'strong chance' of this, although having been around him all the time, quite possible some of them have it as well, as with the various other people who have recently gotten it (Tillis, McDaniels, Conway, Christie, ...)

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19 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

If you're not already, get some exercise, my good man! Good for your brain.

I think a lot of it is just staying in all day. Pre-Covid I was basically only at home to sleep and eat. Exercise would help. I was doing a lot of exercise for about 4 months into this shutdown, but I've only done walks in the last few months.

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4 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

It happens to me when I'm sleep deprived.  Take a nap.  ;c)

I take one nap a year on average. 

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1 hour ago, vcczar said:

I think a lot of it is just staying in all day. Pre-Covid I was basically only at home to sleep and eat. Exercise would help. I was doing a lot of exercise for about 4 months into this shutdown, but I've only done walks in the last few months.

Ya - I actually go outside more now than at the beginning of COVID-19, and exercise more now than then. But I live in an area with lots of outside places to go to.

Even when I living through the coldest Ontario winter in 25 years, I would still go outside pretty much every day for exercise. -40C (same in F) with wind chill was tough, though - I cut that walk short because my eyes were hurting from the cold.

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