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Poll of Polls ELO Forecasting 2020


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1 hour ago, vcczar said:

That's a good question. Midterms 2010, in a way, forshadowed that Obama would have a harder time in 2012 than he did in 2008. 

I would have one model with it and one without it, and then average the two or something. It will probably be something like that. 

I agree. I started doing the DEM rating with the new format. Only some 2016 pollsters added (national election analysed, no states).
Total Games are the number o polls analysed *10 (USA have 213 polls analysed). This is far from the final ranks for those pollsters, they will change when I add 2004 to 2016 states + 2004 to 2012 national polls for sure. I will concentrate all my efforts to add more polls, forecast prediction will be delayed 2/3 days.
image.png.da49b57b4264affc42fb07e2527f8248.png

 

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On 10/6/2020 at 4:02 AM, Entrecampos said:

I will post here the results for now (model is far from complete) and will do the debut of States model, state by state.

Biden ups to 49.1% (+0.9%)
Trump downs to 42.8% (-1%)

Alabama

Trump 61.2%
Biden 36.2%

Alaska

Trump 52.9%
Biden  43.5%

Arizona

Trump 47.8%
Biden 49.6%

States Update, Results range is bigger in states where in the past, Pollsters made worse forecasts.

Alabama Trump >99%, Biden <1%

Trump 57.7% (51.7 TO 63.7)
Biden 39.5% (33.5 TO 45.5)

Alaska Trump 83%, Biden 17%

Trump 52.9% ( 45.2 to 60.6)
Biden 45.3% ( 37.6 to 53)

Arizona Trump 40%, Biden 60%

Trump 46.3% ( 41.9 to 50.7)
Biden 49.7% ( 45.3 to 54.1)

Arkansas Trump 96%, Biden 4%

Trump 54.4% (47 TO 61.8)
Biden 41.9% ( 34.5 TO 49.3)

EDIT

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2016 national pollsters by ranking
 

image.png.af86be7744afb0f7fb7e84ae96f43266.png

With my forecast adaptative model, 2016 election results are Trump 44.9% and Clinton 47.2%, not far from reality!

For 2020... with the same method,

Trump is updated to 42.9% (+0.1%) and Biden to 52.3% (+3.2%), advantage ups from 6.3 to 9.4.

My map updated only with Historical data (no time for now to do with the polls model, that is 1000x better), for now its very weak, but will improve when I add polls system.

Imagem

 

 

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