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State of the Race: 31 Days Left


31 Day Poll  

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  1. 1. See the Data in the First Post: Who do you think wins if the election were today?

  2. 2. Pres. Trump has tested positive for Covid. What do you think happens?

    • It's supposedly a mild case, so I think he recovers quickly and people forget it ever happened.
    • I think he's just pretending to have it for some sort of electoral effect.
    • I think this will gain Trump sympathy points, which will see him rise in the polls
    • I think Trump comes out of this telling people to be much more cautious about Covid.
    • I think Trump comes out of this telling people that "it wasn't a big deal," which will likely result in more maskless people going out and about.
    • I think his condition gets much worse and he's taken effectively out of the race until possibly the very end.
    • This will cancel the debates.
    • Biden will now be campaigning more than Trump for the rest of the election.
    • Biden will campaign even less (somehow) for fear of catching it himself.
    • Trump will die from Covid, and Pence unofficially at the top of the ticket will alter the polls.
    • Trump catching Covid will see his poll numbers drop.
    • Trump catching Covid will have no effect on the race.
    • Other (mention below)
  3. 3. A new poll shows that 1 in 3 Americans are willing to endorse violence if their party loses in November. While Republicans are more okay with violence than Democrats, the Far-Left is the group that finds it the most justifiable. What is your opinion.

    • There is zero justification for any sort of political violence whether it is to further political goals or to protest the 2020 election if my candidate loses, even if it is controversial.
    • There is at least a little justification for violence to further political goals or to protest the 2020 election if my candidate loses, especially if it is a controversial election.
    • There is a great deal of justification for violence to further political goals or to protest the 2020 election if my candidate loses, especially if it is a controversial election.
  4. 4. Which cuisines do you enjoy?



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As usual, Blue trends for Biden and Red trends for Trump.

Biden now leads Trump in GA in the average poll, but I'll keep it lean Red until the difference is larger.

Biden hits +8.2 lead on Trump. This is his highest mark in about 35 days. 

Biden sees the states shift largely his way, but Trump sees NV, NH, and AZ move slightly his way.

Biden's betting odds are now the highest its been in the last 100 days.

WI is very close to Safe Blue.

Map is unchanged. 

Categories 31 Days Left A Week Ago 100 Days Left
Gen Avg Biden 8.2 (+0.6) Biden +1.1 Biden +0.2
AK avg Trump 4.0 (-0.2) Trump -1.7 Trump -0.8
AZ avg Biden 3.6 (-0.1) Biden +0.3 Biden +0.7
FL avg Biden 2.3 (+0.3) Biden +0.7 Biden -5.3
GA avg Biden +0.5 (+0.6) Biden +1.7 Biden +1.8
IA avg Trump 0.3 (-0.2) Trump -0.5 Trump 0
MI Avg Biden 7.2 (+0.2) Biden +0.3 Biden -0.2
MN avg Biden 9.2 (+0.2) Biden +0.2 Biden -1.9
MO avg Trump 6.2 (-0.3) Trump -0.6 Trump +0.7
MT avg Trump 7.7 (-0.2) Trump -0.5 Trump -3.0
NV avg Biden 6.1 (-0.5) Biden -0.7 Biden -0.6
NH Avg Biden 9.2 (-0.1) Biden +2.5 Biden +2.7
NC avg Biden 1.3 (+0.1) Biden +0.2 Biden -1.0
OH avg Biden 1.4 (+0.2) Biden +0.4 Biden -0.7
PA Avg Biden 5.8 (+0.2) Biden +1.1 Biden -1.0
SC avg Trump 5.7 (-0.1) Trump -1.2 Trump -0.9
TX avg Trump 1.6 (-0.2) Trump -0.3 Trump +1.6
WI Avg Biden 6.9 (0) Biden +0.4 Biden -0.2
Trump Approval 43.7 (-0.2) 0.5 3.5
Trump Disapproval 52.9 (+0.1) -0.2 -2.8
Favorability Biden 15.1 (0) Biden -1.0 Biden +3.4
Direction of the Country -34.8 (0) 2.4 10.7
Generic Ballot Dem 6.6 (+0.4) Dem +1.1 Dem -2.0
Betting Markets Biden 61.3 (+1.5) Biden +7.6 Biden +0.6
Clinton vs. Trump 2016 GE Clinton +5    
Biden vs Clinton GE Polls Biden +3.2    

kWGPP.png

 

 

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There is zero justification for violence but great justification for protest if the election is controversial (and there is massive evidence about electoral fraud).  

@Conservative Elector 2 @admin_270 and anyone else who was involved in this convo. Actually, they couldn't. Article IV, Section 3 expressly prohibits making new states by dividing up old states. 

My sister is a little picky as well...not as bad as I am, but worse than most people.     Growing up, the story was that my dad was a picky eater, and so as my mom made food tailored to his pic

Just now, vcczar said:

I forgot to put German and Polish food. I like both of those too. 

Even though I'm the only one likely to choose it, please add Ukrainian food. It's probably more readily accessibly where I live than where most other posters do, as the Canadian Prairie Provinces have far more people of Ukrainian decent than anywhere else outside the former Warsaw Pact countries. But Ukrainian food is stellar stuff!

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I have assumed Italian-American & Chinese-American essentialy boil down to what we'd call Italian & Chinese

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Just now, Mark_W said:

I have assumed Italian-American & Chinese-American essentialy boil down to what we'd call Italian & Chinese

Probably, except for those Italian-American "city-specific," types of custom pizza. Otherwise, likely a safe bet.

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2 minutes ago, Mark_W said:

I have assumed Italian-American & Chinese-American essentialy boil down to what we'd call Italian & Chinese

Yes. And Tex-Mex the same.

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There is zero justification for violence but great justification for protest if the election is controversial (and there is massive evidence about electoral fraud).

 

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1 minute ago, Conservative Elector 2 said:

There is zero justification for violence but great justification for protest if the election is controversial (and there is massive evidence about electoral fraud).

 

I agree. The protests that brought down the Communist Governments in the Warsaw Pact (and, though barely heard about at the time in the media, also Mongolia) in 1989-1992, where only Romania became actively a violent (though short) revolution, or the Arab Spring as it worked in Egypt, Tunisia, and Algeria, and in the VERY SHORT TERM Yemen, but NOT as it turned out and escalated in Libya and Syria.

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29 minutes ago, vcczar said:

vcczar @Reagan04 @Actinguy @Patine @Conservative Elector 2 @TheMiddlePolitical @WVProgressive @SilentLiberty @pilight @admin_270 @Hestia11 @Herbert Hoover @mlcorcoran @Leuser @upandaway @jvikings1 @Rodja @Edouard @jnewt @Nentomat @Kingthero @Sunnymentoaddict @RFK/JFKfan @Mr.Blood @Zenobiyl @Wiw @MBDemSoc @ThePotatoWalrus @Alxeu @Allyn @Cenzonico @CentristGuy @Ishan @billay @wolves @RI Democrat @lizarraba @lizphairphreak @TheLiberalKitten @MysteryKnight @avatarmushi @servo75 @Mark_W

As usual, Blue trends for Biden and Red trends for Trump.

Biden now leads Trump in GA in the average poll, but I'll keep it lean Red until the difference is larger.

Biden hits +8.2 lead on Trump. This is his highest mark in about 35 days. 

Biden sees the states shift largely his way, but Trump sees NV, NH, and AZ move slightly his way.

Biden's betting odds are now the highest its been in the last 100 days.

WI is very close to Safe Blue.

Map is unchanged. 

 

Categories 31 Days Left A Week Ago 100 Days Left
Gen Avg Biden 8.2 (+0.6) Biden +1.1 Biden +0.2
AK avg Trump 4.0 (-0.2) Trump -1.7 Trump -0.8
AZ avg Biden 3.6 (-0.1) Biden +0.3 Biden +0.7
FL avg Biden 2.3 (+0.3) Biden +0.7 Biden -5.3
GA avg Biden +0.5 (+0.6) Biden +1.7 Biden +1.8
IA avg Trump 0.3 (-0.2) Trump -0.5 Trump 0
MI Avg Biden 7.2 (+0.2) Biden +0.3 Biden -0.2
MN avg Biden 9.2 (+0.2) Biden +0.2 Biden -1.9
MO avg Trump 6.2 (-0.3) Trump -0.6 Trump +0.7
MT avg Trump 7.7 (-0.2) Trump -0.5 Trump -3.0
NV avg Biden 6.1 (-0.5) Biden -0.7 Biden -0.6
NH Avg Biden 9.2 (-0.1) Biden +2.5 Biden +2.7
NC avg Biden 1.3 (+0.1) Biden +0.2 Biden -1.0
OH avg Biden 1.4 (+0.2) Biden +0.4 Biden -0.7
PA Avg Biden 5.8 (+0.2) Biden +1.1 Biden -1.0
SC avg Trump 5.7 (-0.1) Trump -1.2 Trump -0.9
TX avg Trump 1.6 (-0.2) Trump -0.3 Trump +1.6
WI Avg Biden 6.9 (0) Biden +0.4 Biden -0.2
Trump Approval 43.7 (-0.2) 0.5 3.5
Trump Disapproval 52.9 (+0.1) -0.2 -2.8
Favorability Biden 15.1 (0) Biden -1.0 Biden +3.4
Direction of the Country -34.8 (0) 2.4 10.7
Generic Ballot Dem 6.6 (+0.4) Dem +1.1 Dem -2.0
Betting Markets Biden 61.3 (+1.5) Biden +7.6 Biden +0.6
Clinton vs. Trump 2016 GE Clinton +5    
Biden vs Clinton GE Polls Biden +3.2    

kWGPP.png

 

 

Other on Number Two is, "I feel I cannot make a prediction of what stupid, counter-intuitive, adult cartoon, insulting-to-the-intelligence-and-integrity results will be dredged from this." When I say "Mex-Tex," I specifically mean "Mexican," and when I say "Middle-Eastern," I mean donairs, though there seems to be dispute between Lebanese, Turks, and Greeks over who innovated the donair, and the answer seems uncertain and unclear. I love Ukrainian food, which is distinct from Russian or Polish food. I like hamburgers, which, as the actual sandwich, are a German creation - they're named after the city of Hamburg - but the style of serving them in the English-speaking world is an American evolution. Though, I far prefer my hamburgers with a side of poutine - a French-Canadian invention - not standard fries.

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I am a notoriously picky eater, generally preferring my food to be as bland as possible.  I've been to seventeen countries and lived on three continents, but I tend to get my meals at their local McDonalds.  

I did discover that I REALLY like shredded beef chimichangas when I lived in California -- that's probably the most "foreign" my palate got -- but once I moved to PA, MD, and now OH, it's just not the same.

I have a lot of Italian heritage, and eat a ton of pasta -- but I'm sure a true Italian would roll their eyes at my version of their cuisine. 

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1 minute ago, admin_270 said:

Trump joins various other world leaders - Trudeau, Johnson, Bolsonaro are the ones I know off-hand - in quarantining due to (possible) COVID-19.

Funny timing.

It was Trudeau's wife, not him specifically, as I recall. Also, Pope Francis had been infected early on in the pandemic.

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1 minute ago, Actinguy said:

I am a notoriously picky eater, generally preferring my food to be as bland as possible.  I've been to seventeen countries and lived on three continents, but I tend to get my meals at their local McDonalds.  

I did discover that I REALLY like shredded beef chimichangas when I lived in California -- that's probably the most "foreign" my palate got -- but once I moved to PA, MD, and now OH, it's just not the same.

I have a lot of Italian heritage, and eat a ton of pasta -- but I'm sure a true Italian would roll their eyes at my version of their cuisine. 

I ONLY drink the coffee at McDonald's, now - which is very good coffee. But the food is inedible slop, and has been for over a decade.

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2 minutes ago, Zenobiyl said:

Lithuanian Cuisine is very high on my list, mainly thanks to some family friends who introduced me to it. 

What would Mindaugas have eaten? :P

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2 minutes ago, Patine said:

I ONLY drink the coffee at McDonald's, now - which is very good coffee. But the food is inedible slop, and has been for over a decade.

I actually agree that McDonalds is largely inedible slop.  I'll just get the fries and a Coke, usually.  Occasionally a grilled chicken wrap, which are hit and miss.  

But as a picky eater (not by choice - a lot of food textures make me gag), options are sometimes quite limited, especially in a foreign country.

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1 minute ago, Actinguy said:

I actually agree that McDonalds is largely inedible slop.  I'll just get the fries and a Coke, usually.  Occasionally a grilled chicken wrap, which are hit and miss.  

But as a picky eater (not by choice - a lot of food textures make me gag), options are sometimes quite limited, especially in a foreign country.

Only mushrooms, zucchini, squash, and yams - and all if boiled or cooked, not raw - make me gag. But it's their texture. It's a bit squishy, but with a counter-intuitive degree of firmness. I just can't get them down.

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1 minute ago, Patine said:

Only mushrooms, zucchini, squash, and yams - and all if boiled or cooked, not raw - make me gag. But it's their texture. It's a bit squishy, but with a counter-intuitive degree of firmness. I just can't get them down.

My wife and I met on an online dating site.  We immediately clicked in our messages back and forth, and bonded in part over the fact that we are both picky eaters and the issues that causes us.  But despite having the same problem, it was a red flag for me -- if we're both picky eaters, how in the world will we ever find a restaurant we both can agree on?

Turned out that we're both the exact same kind of picky.  I take it to a more extreme level (my wife said she was the pickiest eater she'd ever met, until she met me), but neither one of us is ever interested in a restaurant that the other one feels the need to veto.  We're on the same page close to 100% of the time, when it comes to food.  

As soon as I realized that, I knew I had to marry her.  A lifetime of telling some other woman "Oh, no thanks, I'm not going to touch the dinner you worked so hard to prepare" probably wouldn't have ended well.  Haha.

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This is the most interesting article I've read so far today re campaign

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/trump-s-winning-voter-registration-battle-against-biden-key-states-n1241674

"there are signs Trump's ground operation is paying off when it comes to registering new voters in key states [...] academic research has routinely concluded door-to-door canvassing is the "most consistently effective and efficient method of voter mobilization." Only just now has the Biden campaign decided to restart its in-person voter contacts in some battleground states [...] new data from the past few months shows Republicans have swamped Democrats in adding new voters to the rolls, a dramatic GOP improvement over 2016 [...] privately, several Democratic strategists are deeply disturbed by their party's failure to keep pace with its registration successes in 2016 and fault the Biden campaign's lack of in-person outreach for the lag"

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