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Nominees that have defeated Incumbents


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vcczar @Reagan04 @Actinguy @Patine @Conservative Elector 2 @TheMiddlePolitical @WVProgressive @SilentLiberty @pilight @admin_270 @Hestia11 @Herbert Hoover @mlcorcoran @Leuser @upandaway @jvikings1 @Rodja @Edouard @jnewt @Nentomat @Kingthero @Sunnymentoaddict @RFK/JFKfan @Mr.Blood @Zenobiyl @Wiw @MBDemSoc @ThePotatoWalrus @Alxeu @Allyn @Cenzonico @CentristGuy @Ishan @billay @wolves @RI Democrat @lizarraba @lizphairphreak @TheLiberalKitten @MysteryKnight @avatarmushi @servo75 @Mark_W

Just quickly, as I'm putting together today's polls, was thinking about incumbents that lost reelection. Fill in the blank:

  • 1800: Quietly charismatic Jefferson beats Adams
  • 1828: Charismatic War Hero Jackson beats Adams II
  • 1840: Likable War Hero Harrison beats Van Buren
  • 1888: Uncharismatic and barely likable Harrison II beats honest Cleveland
  • 1892: Honest Ex-President Cleveland beats barely likable Harrison II
  • 1912: Charismatic Wilson beats honest Taft
  • 1932: Charismatic FDR beats uncharismatic Hoover
  • 1976: Likable Carter beats dull Ford
  • 1992: Charismatic Clinton beats unspectacular Bush
  • 2020: ________ Biden beats ______ Trump
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3 minutes ago, vcczar said:

 

vcczar @Reagan04 @Actinguy @Patine @Conservative Elector 2 @TheMiddlePolitical @WVProgressive @SilentLiberty @pilight @admin_270 @Hestia11 @Herbert Hoover @mlcorcoran @Leuser @upandaway @jvikings1 @Rodja @Edouard @jnewt @Nentomat @Kingthero @Sunnymentoaddict @RFK/JFKfan @Mr.Blood @Zenobiyl @Wiw @MBDemSoc @ThePotatoWalrus @Alxeu @Allyn @Cenzonico @CentristGuy @Ishan @billay @wolves @RI Democrat @lizarraba @lizphairphreak @TheLiberalKitten @MysteryKnight @avatarmushi @servo75 @Mark_W

Just quickly, as I'm putting together today's polls, was thinking about incumbents that lost reelection. Fill in the blank:

  • 1800: Quietly charismatic Jefferson beats Adams
  • 1828: Charismatic War Hero Jackson beats Adams II
  • 1840: Likable War Hero Harrison beats Van Buren
  • 1888: Uncharismatic and barely likable Harrison II beats honest Cleveland
  • 1892: Honest Ex-President Cleveland beats barely likable Harrison II
  • 1912: Charismatic Wilson beats honest Taft
  • 1932: Charismatic FDR beats uncharismatic Hoover
  • 1976: Likable Carter beats dull Ford
  • 1992: Charismatic Clinton beats unspectacular Bush
  • 2020: ________ Biden beats ______ Trump

It's just gonna be a little funny for me when Trump is re-elected. 

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Unenergetic Biden beats polarizing Trump.

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Sympathetic/Compassionate Biden beats narcistic Trump

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2 minutes ago, Zenobiyl said:

I don’t think Wilson was all that charismatic. In truth, I think he was an unpopular figure who won because of a fluke. He only got 42% of the vote.

If Roosevelt was the nominee rather than Taft it wouldn't have been close. If Roosevelt didn't run, I don't think it'd have been close. 

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Also you seem to be implying Biden is ensured a win. Although I think the odds are good for him, I wouldn’t jump to any conclusions while the race is still on.

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35 minutes ago, SilentLiberty said:

It's just gonna be a little funny for me when Trump is re-elected. 

I find this whole election completely unfunny. It's produced a disgusting low point in American culture and society (and certainly media), and brought out the worst in a lot of Americans (and quite a few non-Americans), even many who were quite decent and reasonable before, and has produced a purely toxic environment. And I mean this for BOTH Republican and Democratic supporters, not JUST the former. A LOT of people SHOULD really be ashamed of themselves for such vile behaviour and rhetoric, but, of course, almost certainly aren't. :(

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42 minutes ago, SilentLiberty said:

It's just gonna be a little funny for me when Trump is re-elected. 

That's just becoming increasingly doubtful. I don't see any hope for him, even if I were both an optimist and a Trump supporter. 

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29 minutes ago, vcczar said:

That's just becoming increasingly doubtful. I don't see any hope for him, even if I were both an optimist and a Trump supporter. 

I think this is a reasonable view, because you're going largely by the polls. And if you're not going largely by the polls, how could someone know how close it is? Important questions for anyone who thinks Trump is ahead or has a significant chance of winning right now.

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2 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

I think this is a reasonable view, because you're going largely by the polls. And if you're not going largely by the polls, how could someone know how close it is? Important questions for anyone who thinks Trump is ahead or has a significant chance of winning right now.

You, like @servo75 did, are pretending a lot of elements that were overlooked in 2016 are still fully and completely in play now, even though that assumption is nonsensical in the context of the 2020 election.

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1 minute ago, Patine said:

You, like @servo75 did, are pretending a lot of elements that were overlooked in 2016 are still fully and completely in play now, even though that assumption is nonsensical in the context of the 2020 election.

Don't understand what you're responding to here.

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20 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

As many have noted, the election isn't really about Biden. You could probably leave the first blank blank.

I agree. Biden won 8% in New Hampshire. It's not about him, it's about beating Trump actually. Likewise it's for many other people about beating the Democrats.

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1 minute ago, Conservative Elector 2 said:

I agree. Biden won 8% in New Hampshire. It's not about him, it's about beating Trump actually. Likewise it's for many other people about beating the Democrats.

Every election, everywhere in the world that holds them, SHOULD be about the people voting in the election and the nation they live in - NOT the politicians running or their political parties. But elected politicians, all around the world, have forgotten the meaning and purpose of their job - to be public servants to selflessly provide good governance for the people and nation, but working subordinately, accountably, and transparently for those people and nation. The great majority, today, FAIL UTTERLY AND COMPLETELY at their job, properly defined, and no longer deserve, by any rights, to have it.

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1 hour ago, admin_270 said:

I think this is a reasonable view, because you're going largely by the polls. And if you're not going largely by the polls, how could someone know how close it is? Important questions for anyone who thinks Trump is ahead or has a significant chance of winning right now.

I think polls are the only thing that can give anyone an accurate national or statewide estimate. I think one can get a local estimate by looking at the differences in street signs and bumperstickers from 2016 to 2020, for instance. Aside from polls and signs, I'm not sure how anyone can estimate the race. You have to have data for that. 

In regards to signs, I am yet to hear of anyone's neighborhood showing more Trump signs and less Democratic signs. Every story I've heard reflects @Actinguy's story. A GOP suburb of Ohio that had had dozens of "Lock her Up" signs and no Clinton signs in 2016 to one that has Biden signs competing with Trump signs in 2020. 

One doesn't even have to look at national and state polls. There's demographic polls, such as the one I posted that shows Trump having more than a 10% drop in support of White men. Considering how close WI, MI, and PA were, I think a drop of 1% would be enough for Biden to win these states, if all other demographics stay about the same. 

If polls did not exist or if one refused to put any faith in polls, what would you use to estimate that Trump or Biden is winning?

Trump has very little to be optimistic about. If he wins this election, it will be twice as unexpected as 2016. The only thing that will buffer the shock value is that the 2016 election had been shocking. It's not impossible for Trump to win two elections in a row that seem to completely defy pundits, data, and etc., but to do it twice is improbable (although not impossible).

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1 minute ago, admin_270 said:

Right, that's the question.

How would you answer it? 

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16 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

I might update my prediction %s tomorrow. If so, this question will be part of my analysis.

Cool. 

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1 hour ago, Patine said:

Every election, everywhere in the world that holds them, SHOULD be about the people voting in the election and the nation they live in - NOT the politicians running or their political parties. But elected politicians, all around the world, have forgotten the meaning and purpose of their job - to be public servants to selflessly provide good governance for the people and nation, but working subordinately, accountably, and transparently for those people and nation. The great majority, today, FAIL UTTERLY AND COMPLETELY at their job, properly defined, and no longer deserve, by any rights, to have it.

Do you agree with me, here, @Conservative Elector 2?

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1 minute ago, Patine said:

Do you agree with me, here, @Conservative Elector 2?

 

1 hour ago, Patine said:

But elected politicians, all around the world, have forgotten the meaning and purpose of their job - to be public servants to selflessly provide good governance for the people and nation, but working subordinately, accountably, and transparently for those people and nation. The great majority, today, FAIL UTTERLY AND COMPLETELY at their job, properly defined

For this part of your statement yes.

Quote

Every election, everywhere in the world that holds them, SHOULD be about the people voting in the election and the nation they live in - NOT the politicians running or their political parties [...] and no longer deserve, by any rights, to have it.

Not completely here. I would not like a completely non-partisan government like they have on some small islands. That would be incredibly difficult. I also don't like party lists, which are decided by the party. In that regard the first-past-the-post system is good, because you actually decide the person who represents you instead of the party.

Furthermore I don't know if there are that many experience and goodhearted people out there to take over any politicians office. So I think most of them ''deserve'' to remain in place.

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2 minutes ago, Conservative Elector 2 said:

 

For this part of your statement yes.

Not completely here. I would not like a completely non-partisan government like they have on some small islands. That would be incredibly difficult. I also don't like party lists, which are decided by the party. In that regard the first-past-the-post system is good, because you actually decide the person who represents you instead of the party.

Furthermore I don't know if there are that many experience and goodhearted people out there to take over any politicians office. So I think most of them ''deserve'' to remain in place.

First-past-the-post is anathema to the will of the voters' in the larger scope. I believe someone mentioned a few days ago on this forum that the Democratic Party won the popular vote in the 2018 Senate elections, but lost several seats. This phenomenon happens all the time in the U.S. House of Representatives. In Canada and the UK, majority governments have been formed as little as 30% of the popular vote. It's, frankly, a wretched form of electing lawmakers - probably the second worst out there next to having the head-of-state - or the central committee of the one, single, legal party - just arbitrarily appoint them all. I think the hybrid MMP system is the best currently on offer, as pure PR is a recipe for chaos, and the Australian system doubles down on favouring a two-party system.

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