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State of the Race: 32 Days Left


32 Day Poll  

25 members have voted

  1. 1. See the Data in the First Post: Who do you think wins if the election were today?

  2. 2. If Trump loses reelection by a convincing margin (say 300+ EVs), do you think this will hurt Trump's strongest supporters in Congress politically?

    • Yes, the association of backing a loser will have voters in their areas looking for people that kept quiet about Trump or were anti-Trumpers.
    • No, I think these US Senators and US Reps live in areas where Trump support is so strong that voters will support Trump even if he's now tagged as a loser, possibly because they'll think the election was fraudulent.
  3. 3. Do you believe Trump that the election is going to be fraudulent?

    • Yes, the mail-in ballots will be manipulated in such a way that Democrats, NeverTrump GOP, and Regret-a-Trump GOP will steal the election.
    • Yes, but not in the way Trump thinks. Russian interference and/or voter suppression (mostly in Black neighborhoods) will steal the election.
    • There will be no significant shenanigans that will label the election "stolen" (i.e. nothing more or less unusual than in 2012, for instance).
  4. 4. Did the debate dispel the rumor that Biden has dementia?

    • Yes, while it was a sloppy debate, Biden was no more or less coherent than he has been in debates in the past. Just his standard tripping over his words on occasion, which has always been part of him.
    • No, I think the fact that he wasn't pummeling Trump at every corner was a sure sign of his decline. The old Biden would have defended himself better and attacked more ferociously. He seemed slow.
    • I don't think we can say. The debate was so insane, it was hard to tell what was going on that was a mental illness or decline between either of the candidates.
    • I didn't watch more or all of the debate, so I can't say.
  5. 5. If Trump loses reelection, how do you think Trump will be ranked as a President at the end of 2021 after a year of reflection? (Feel free to pick a range.)

    • One of the greats: Should be on Mount Rushmore with Washington, Jefferson, Lincoln, and Teddy Roosevelt.
    • A near great: I think he's in that Eisenhower or Reagan category.
      0
    • He's been good but not great.
      0
    • He's been above average. Done more good than bad, but too controversial to go any higher.
    • He's been average. He's been too mixed as a president.
    • Below average. If he becomes a one-term president, he'll probably be forgotten by the average American in 100 years, similar to Benjamin Harrison (FYI, who got 4 justices on the SC in 4 years)
    • Bad: He's been a bad president but not a failed president.
    • Near Failed: He did at least some things right that saves him from being failed, but his presidency has been so awful otherwise, that he fits this spot.
    • Failed: He failed at almost everything he did and left the country so much more worse off. He belongs with the likes of Buchanan, Pierce and Hoover.


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As usual, Blue trends for Biden and Red trends for Trump. 

Biden runs the tables on the states, and I don't think this is even accounting for the debate yet.

Biden just shot up 0.5 pts in the General Election matchup to +7.6, which was his average 21 days ago.

Trump's lead drops significantly in SC.

Biden's lead in NH is now over +9! 

Strangely, Trump's approval has risen to just 0.1 below 44%. A kind of high area for him, but worrisomely low historically for an incumbent in reelection.

MI moves from Likely Blue to Safe Blue

SC moves from Safe Red to Likely Red.

FL flips to Lean Blue, but I won't be surprised if this flips back since I'm giving a handicap to Trump in this state. If curious, I give Trump a handicap in FL, NC, OH, WI, PA, MI, AZ, GA, TX, NE-2, ME-2, IA, MO -- basically every state Trump did well in during 2016 or won to account for voting irregularities, suppression, and silent Trump voters. 

Categories 32 Days Left A Week Ago 100 Days Left
Gen Avg Biden 7.6 (+0.5) Biden +0.5 Biden -0.4
AK avg Trump 4.2 (-0.3) Trump -1.5 Trump -0.6
AZ avg Biden 3.7 (+0.2) Biden +0.4 Biden +0.8
FL avg Biden 2.0 (+0.1) Biden +0.4 Biden -5.6
GA avg Trump 0 (-0.1) Trump -1.2 Trump -1.3
IA avg Trump 0.5 (-0.2) Trump -0.3 Trump +0.2
MI Avg Biden 7.0 (+0.1) Biden +0.1 Biden -0.4
MN avg Biden 9.0 (+0.2) Biden 0 Biden -2.1
MO avg Trump 6.5 (-0.2) Trump -0.3 Trump +1.0
MT avg Trump 7.9 (-0.1) Trump -0.3 Trump -2.8
NV avg Biden 6.6 (+0.1) Biden -0.2 Biden -0.1
NH Avg Biden 9.3 (+0.8) Biden +2.6 Biden +1.8
NC avg Biden 1.2 (+0.2) Biden +0.1 Biden -1.0
OH avg Biden 1.2 (+0.2) Biden +0.2 Biden -0.9
PA Avg Biden 5.6 (+0.1) Biden +0.9 Biden -1.2
SC avg Trump 5.8 (-1.7) Trump -1.1 Trump -0.8
TX avg Trump 1.8 (-0.2) Trump -0.1 Trump +1.8
WI Avg Biden 6.9 (+0.2) Biden +0.4 Biden -0.2
Trump Approval 43.9 (+0.2) 0.7 3.7
Trump Disapproval 52.8 (+0.1) -0.2 -2.9
Favorability Biden 15.1 (-0.7) Biden -1.0 Biden +3.4
Direction of the Country -34.8 (0) 2.4 10.3
Generic Ballot Dem 6.2 (+0.2) Dem +0.7 Dem -2.4
Betting Markets Biden 59.8 (+0.8) Biden +6.1 Biden -0.9
Clinton vs. Trump 2016 GE Clinton +5    
Biden vs Clinton GE Polls Biden +2.6    

momRP.png

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First post-debate poll from Change Research (C- rated pollster) is Biden + 13. Last 3 Change Research national polls were Biden + 9, Biden + 6, Biden + 8.  2% of poll respondants say the debate changed their vote.

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5 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Biden lid.

Biden has been campaigning a lot more recently

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2 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Not really ...

Have you not been following his schedule the past few days? 

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33 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

I find it interesting Trump was campaigning in MN yesterday, while the map has it safe blue.

Last 10 polls in MN, all within last two weeks.:

  • Biden +6 (A pollster)
  • Biden +9 (unrated pollster since new)
  • Biden +16 (A+ pollster)
  • Biden +17 (A+ pollster)
  • Biden +4 (B/C Pollster)
  • Biden +3 (B/C Pollster)
  • Biden +17 (B/C Pollster)
  • Biden +9 (B Pollster)
  • Biden +9 (A+ Pollster)
  • Biden +9 (A Pollster)
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Just now, vcczar said:

Last 10 polls in MN, all within last two weeks.:

  • Biden +6 (A pollster)
  • Biden +9 (unrated pollster since new)
  • Biden +16 (A+ pollster)
  • Biden +17 (A+ pollster)
  • Biden +4 (B/C Pollster)
  • Biden +3 (B/C Pollster)
  • Biden +17 (B/C Pollster)
  • Biden +9 (B Pollster)
  • Biden +9 (A+ Pollster)
  • Biden +9 (A Pollster)

+3 to +17 spread. Somebody's wrong ... The campaigns know more than we do, so will be interesting to see if Biden campaign goes there as well.

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7 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

As of Oct. 1st, Trump is running ahead of where he was in 2016 vs. Clinton in RCP battleground polls - first time since August 31st. Up from -2.8% on Sep. 20th.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states-2020-vs-2016/

Interesting. I don't like those polls that group all the battleground states together because FL and TX are such large states. It doesn't really mean anything. It's better to to isolate the states with their own polls. 

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Just now, admin_270 said:

+3 to +17 spread. Somebody's wrong ... The campaigns know more than we do, so will be interesting to see if Biden campaign goes there as well.

Most likely the +3 ones. They're likely outliers and by the same polling company on the same day.

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3 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

That was one day. Not 'the past few days'.

It's also the schedule for the upcoming days. I should have said "have you been following Joe's schedule" not "for the past few days". The truth remains that he's got events in the bag yesterday and has an upcoming tour planned.

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2 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Interesting. I don't like those polls that group all the battleground states together because FL and TX are such large states. It doesn't really mean anything. It's better to to isolate the states with their own polls. 

That's a good question - how are they weighting the polls? By population? EC votes? By state?

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Just now, Reagan04 said:

It's also the schedule for the upcoming days. I should have said "have you been following Joe's schedule" not "for the past few days". The truth remains that he's got events in the bag yesterday and has an upcoming tour planned.

Yes, that's a good sign for Biden!

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@admin_270 and also as a note, I mark something safe on my map once the average poll has someone at +7. I mark a state as likely once the average poll has some between +3 and +6.9. I mark a state as leans if it is at +2.9 or less and I also apply the Trump handicap, which means he can win a state on the map and still average -2.0 sometimes. I suspend these rules if I see a gradual trend that leads me to believe the state should be marked a different shade. With the exception of that one poll, MN doesn't look like it is in Trump's orbit, according to the grand majority of polls and polling average.

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Just now, vcczar said:

MN doesn't look like it is in Trump's orbit

It seems we are faced with the following choice - either the Trump campaign knows something we don't and it's closer than public polls suggest or there is significant softness in Biden support, or it's a head fake.

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3 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

It seems we are faced with the following choice - either the Trump campaign knows something we don't and it's closer than public polls suggest or there is significant softness in Biden support, or it's a head fake.

I think it's either a head fake or an attempt to see if the campaign makes a difference, testing to see how solid that support it. However, I think that's a bad strategy. Trump could win by focusing only on 4 states -- FL, PA, OH, and NC, while just sending surrogate elsewhere. Biden needs to compete with him in FL, NC and PA, and focus on AZ and NV, so long as he's still holding major leads in WI and MI. If those states narrow, he should leave AZ and NV for WI and MI. I think any other strategy right now is just diversionary. Trump has a simpler easier map to work with, despite losing in the polls right now. Biden has to do a lot of holding action. 

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1 hour ago, admin_270 said:

I find it interesting Trump was campaigning in MN yesterday, while the map has it safe blue.

I guess that's because of the things going on in MN, which make the state seem winnable. Don't forget a burning Minneapolis, a very weak Governor, Keith Ellison as AG, a Senator, who seems to be barely campaigning as mentioned by @Berg2036 despite being up for re-election and various new accusations against Rep. Omar.

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I am really surprised I am the only one that's voted No on 4. Me! lol. I should explain, I suppose. I think that the old Biden would've definitely been able to defend himself more. I think he's declined, but I think it's more due to standard aging than dementia or anything of that sort. I was really disappointed he wasn't stronger in the debate. Sure, Trump was at fault for 95% of it, but Biden didn't make sure that the audience knew that. This whole, it was a tie, both were bad, shouldn't have been the outcome. It should've been Biden schooled Trump for interrupting all the time and made sure he got his points in. 

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