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State of the Race: 33 Days Left


33 Day Poll  

26 members have voted

  1. 1. See the Data in the First Post: Who do you think wins if the election were today?

  2. 2. Did you watch the debate?

    • Yes, most or all of it
    • Yes, but only highlights or part of it.
    • No
  3. 3. If you had to pick one, who do you think won the debate?

    • I did not watch the debate or only saw parts of the debate, so I can't accurately say.
    • I watched all or most of the debate and I think Biden won.
    • I watched all or most of the debate and I think Trump won.
  4. 4. Did it bother you that Trump backed out of condemning white supremacists during the debate?

  5. 5. Did it bother you that while Biden said he would accept the election results and to calm his followers if he loses, Trump would not commit to this, encouraged the "Proud Boys" to "stand back and stand by," and would only accept the result via the Supreme Court?



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2 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

So you're saying that we should wait for a government official (the President) to designate them as a terrorist organization so we'll find out more, but also not to trust a government official (the FBI head) about the designation. You've seen individuals posting this, but is it actually an organization or people trying to say that they're "cool" and "edgy" because they're posting with ANTIFA flags? I tend to think the latter. 

No, what I am saying is that there will have to be evidence provided to detain/arrest anyone that the government may go after on terrorism charges, it is not like this is overseas where you can just drone strike them into oblivion without the public knowing any better.  I don't think that Trump has labeled them a terrorist organization, yet (not sure), but if he does then there will probably be some follow up action that takes place.  I think we may know more about this story as time goes on.

I don't know, probably some kids being edgy for sure.  At this point, we don't have enough information to be sure.

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Pretty much my train of thought. No one winning means Biden wins since Trump needs to get some serious movement in the polls to have a real chance.

@vcczar The threat from white-supremacy groups are over-hyped by the media. The idea that there are highly organized white-supremacy groups is absurd. White Supremacy groups consist of a bunch of idio

I think the people who didn't watch the debate won.

Just now, CPE said:

No, what I am saying is that there will have to be evidence provided to detain/arrest anyone that the government may go after on terrorism charges, it is not like this is overseas where you can just drone strike them into oblivion without the public knowing any better.  I don't think that Trump has labeled them a terrorist organization, yet (not sure), but if he does then there will probably be some follow up action that takes place.  I think we may know more about this story as time goes on.

 

I'm not sure either 100%, I know he was talking about it, but I'm not sure if he went through with it. This article says he would, but I don't know if he actually did it or not, or who has the power in the federal government to do that, whether it's the President, or a cabinet head, or the legislature even.

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/09/23/trump-social-media-rightwing-news-stir-up-antifa-scares

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2 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

I'm not sure either 100%, I know he was talking about it, but I'm not sure if he went through with it. This article says he would, but I don't know if he actually did it or not, or who has the power in the federal government to do that, whether it's the President, or a cabinet head, or the legislature even.

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/09/23/trump-social-media-rightwing-news-stir-up-antifa-scares

Yeah, that is a pattern that I have noticed with Trump : talks about something, and hypes the issue up, but doesn't follow through at the end of the day.  It was similar with the international student stuff that happened a couple months back when he was trying to send all of them who were studying online home, there were big announcements, but nothing ever came out of it.  Definitely a trend for him, which is why I asked.

We will see what happens soon I guess.

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25 minutes ago, CPE said:

Personally, I don't believe something just because a government official says it (too much experience with banana republic governments has shown me not too lol).  It is important to look at things with your own eyes/brain and try to see if the government is telling the truth about something.  I think there are some underground radical left-wing organizations operating in the States for certain, I have seen individuals posing with the ANTIFA flag in recent photos.  How organized are they, who knows for sure.  The big wigs know a whole lot more than we do.

 

16 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

So you're saying that we should wait for a government official (the President) to designate them as a terrorist organization so we'll find out more, but also not to trust a government official (the FBI head) about the designation. You've seen individuals posting this, but is it actually an organization or people trying to say that they're "cool" and "edgy" because they're posting with ANTIFA flags? I tend to think the latter. 

I will not have any faith or trust for any integrity, credibility, believability, or legitimacy of any U.S. President or other figure in that field in an U.S. Administration about who does or does not belong on such a list of terrorist organizations until they ante up, spill their guts, call a spade a spade, and put the CIA on that list where it belongs - and start treating them like a group on that list (including starting the "no funding, support, tolerance, or negotiation with terrorists," policy in regards to them, and, obviously, no longer continuing with the disgustingly warped and twisted view of them as an integral and essential tool and operating fighting international terrorism).

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6 hours ago, vcczar said:

vcczar @Reagan04 @Actinguy @Patine @Conservative Elector 2 @TheMiddlePolitical @WVProgressive @SilentLiberty @pilight @admin_270 @Hestia11 @Herbert Hoover @mlcorcoran @Leuser @upandaway @jvikings1 @Rodja @Edouard @jnewt @Nentomat @Kingthero @Sunnymentoaddict @RFK/JFKfan @Mr.Blood @Zenobiyl @Wiw @MBDemSoc @ThePotatoWalrus @Alxeu @Allyn @Cenzonico @CentristGuy @Ishan @billay @wolves @RI Democrat @lizarraba @lizphairphreak @TheLiberalKitten @MysteryKnight @avatarmushi @servo75 @Mark_W

As usual, Blue trends for Biden and Red trends for Trump. 

Trump loses 1 pt in GA, giving him only +0.1 in the average poll. Despite this, I'll keep it Lean Red even as the momentum is turning against him here. 

Huge boost for Biden in NH, making it a Safe Blue state. His average polling in this state went up by 1.6 pts.

If Biden loses anymore ground in NC, even if only 0.1, I'll flip the state Lean R. 

Biden's betting odds have shot up, probably a debate bounce.

No change on the map.

 

Categories 33 Days Left A Week Ago 100 Days Left
Gen Avg Biden 7.1 (0) Biden -0.3 Biden -0.9
AK avg Trump 4.5 (0) Trump -1.2 Trump -0.3
AZ avg Biden 3.5 (-0.1) Biden -0.1 Biden +0.6
FL avg Biden 1.9 (+0.1) Biden (0) Biden -5.5
GA avg Trump 0.1 (-1.0) Trump -0.5 Trump -1.2
IA avg Trump 0.7 (0) Trump +0.1 Trump +0.4
MI Avg Biden 6.9 (0) Biden -0.5 Biden -0.5
MN avg Biden 8.8 (0) Biden -0.7 Biden -2.3
MO avg Trump 6.7 (0) Trump +0.4 Trump +1.2
MT avg Trump 8.0 (0) Trump +1.4 Trump -2.7
NV avg Biden 6.5 (0) Biden +4.0 Biden -0.2
NH Avg Biden 8.5 (+1.6) Biden -0.6 Biden +1.0
NC avg Biden 1.0 (-0.1) Biden -0.4 Biden -1.2
OH avg Biden 1.0 (0) Biden +0.4 Biden -1.1
PA Avg Biden 5.5 (+0.1) Biden +0.8 Biden -1.3
SC avg Trump 7.5 (-0.1) Trump +2.3 Trump +0.9
TX avg Trump 2.0 (+0.2) Trump +0.8 Trump +2.0
WI Avg Biden 6.7 (0) Biden +0.1 Biden -0.4
Trump Approval 43.7 (0) 0.9 3.5
Trump Disapproval 52.7 (+0.2) 0.4 -3
Favorability Biden 15.8 (0) Biden -0.4 Biden +4.1
Direction of the Country -34.8 (0) 2.4 10.7
Generic Ballot Dem 6.0 (0) Dem +0.2 Dem +2.6
Betting Markets Biden 59.0 (+4.1) Biden +5.6 Biden -1.7
Clinton vs. Trump 2016 GE Clinton +5    
Biden vs Clinton GE Polls Biden +2.1    

Bl01A.png

 

I believe more in NC or Ohio Gop than Florida. But its an interesting map.

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56 minutes ago, Entrecampos said:

I believe more in NC or Ohio Gop than Florida. But its an interesting map.

I can agree with that.

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