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State of the Race: 33 Days Left


33 Day Poll  

26 members have voted

  1. 1. See the Data in the First Post: Who do you think wins if the election were today?

  2. 2. Did you watch the debate?

    • Yes, most or all of it
    • Yes, but only highlights or part of it.
    • No
  3. 3. If you had to pick one, who do you think won the debate?

    • I did not watch the debate or only saw parts of the debate, so I can't accurately say.
    • I watched all or most of the debate and I think Biden won.
    • I watched all or most of the debate and I think Trump won.
  4. 4. Did it bother you that Trump backed out of condemning white supremacists during the debate?

  5. 5. Did it bother you that while Biden said he would accept the election results and to calm his followers if he loses, Trump would not commit to this, encouraged the "Proud Boys" to "stand back and stand by," and would only accept the result via the Supreme Court?



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As usual, Blue trends for Biden and Red trends for Trump. 

Trump loses 1 pt in GA, giving him only +0.1 in the average poll. Despite this, I'll keep it Lean Red even as the momentum is turning against him here. 

Huge boost for Biden in NH, making it a Safe Blue state. His average polling in this state went up by 1.6 pts.

If Biden loses anymore ground in NC, even if only 0.1, I'll flip the state Lean R. 

Biden's betting odds have shot up, probably a debate bounce.

No change on the map.

 

Categories 33 Days Left A Week Ago 100 Days Left
Gen Avg Biden 7.1 (0) Biden -0.3 Biden -0.9
AK avg Trump 4.5 (0) Trump -1.2 Trump -0.3
AZ avg Biden 3.5 (-0.1) Biden -0.1 Biden +0.6
FL avg Biden 1.9 (+0.1) Biden (0) Biden -5.5
GA avg Trump 0.1 (-1.0) Trump -0.5 Trump -1.2
IA avg Trump 0.7 (0) Trump +0.1 Trump +0.4
MI Avg Biden 6.9 (0) Biden -0.5 Biden -0.5
MN avg Biden 8.8 (0) Biden -0.7 Biden -2.3
MO avg Trump 6.7 (0) Trump +0.4 Trump +1.2
MT avg Trump 8.0 (0) Trump +1.4 Trump -2.7
NV avg Biden 6.5 (0) Biden +4.0 Biden -0.2
NH Avg Biden 8.5 (+1.6) Biden -0.6 Biden +1.0
NC avg Biden 1.0 (-0.1) Biden -0.4 Biden -1.2
OH avg Biden 1.0 (0) Biden +0.4 Biden -1.1
PA Avg Biden 5.5 (+0.1) Biden +0.8 Biden -1.3
SC avg Trump 7.5 (-0.1) Trump +2.3 Trump +0.9
TX avg Trump 2.0 (+0.2) Trump +0.8 Trump +2.0
WI Avg Biden 6.7 (0) Biden +0.1 Biden -0.4
Trump Approval 43.7 (0) 0.9 3.5
Trump Disapproval 52.7 (+0.2) 0.4 -3
Favorability Biden 15.8 (0) Biden -0.4 Biden +4.1
Direction of the Country -34.8 (0) 2.4 10.7
Generic Ballot Dem 6.0 (0) Dem +0.2 Dem +2.6
Betting Markets Biden 59.0 (+4.1) Biden +5.6 Biden -1.7
Clinton vs. Trump 2016 GE Clinton +5    
Biden vs Clinton GE Polls Biden +2.1    

Bl01A.png

 

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Pretty much my train of thought. No one winning means Biden wins since Trump needs to get some serious movement in the polls to have a real chance.

@vcczar The threat from white-supremacy groups are over-hyped by the media. The idea that there are highly organized white-supremacy groups is absurd. White Supremacy groups consist of a bunch of idio

I think the people who didn't watch the debate won.

I agree with what admin said 100%. I don't think Biden necessarily did *bad* by any means, but he wasn't anywhere near as solid as he needed to be. He was below average, and allowed Trump to walk all over him. Now, that didn't reflect well on Trump, which is why I say Biden won, but I really don't think this'll impact anything beyond what's already happened.

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@BeetleJuice I'm really curious specifically why the things Trump said didn't bother you. You're the only person as of right now to be unbothered by it. Trying to get another perspective.

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Even though I watched the full debate, I could not name a winner.

Biden was clearly the more competent one, even in the moments when he was stumbling over his own words he was still demonstrating more leadership capacity than Trump was.

But Trump's insane, unprofessional behavior interrupted every single point Biden was trying to make.  Which I'm sure was Trump's goal from the start.

So there were no winners.

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7 minutes ago, vcczar said:

@BeetleJuice I'm really curious specifically why the things Trump said didn't bother you. You're the only person as of right now to be unbothered by it. Trying to get another perspective.

To be fair I think you can make a valid case for being ‘unbothered’ by both because... 

You can’t expect any better from him.

&

It SHOULD hurt him at the ballot box and 4 more years of Trump will do a lot more damage to a lot more people than the short spell of violence he incites post-election.

But then ultimately it’s a racist in one of the most powerful positions in the world and as unsurprising as it is that has to bother you.

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23 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Trump's betting odds have shot up, probably a debate bounce.

       
Betting Markets Biden 59.0 (+4.1) Biden +5.6 Biden -1.7
     

I guess you mean Biden in your post?

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21 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

The consensus I see is that the debate was a mess, and no one was really a winner, Wallace was the biggest loser, but if you had to pick someone who won it would be Biden. (Haven't watched the debate.)

Pretty much my train of thought. No one winning means Biden wins since Trump needs to get some serious movement in the polls to have a real chance.

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@vcczar The threat from white-supremacy groups are over-hyped by the media. The idea that there are highly organized white-supremacy groups is absurd. White Supremacy groups consist of a bunch of idiots meeting, and occasionally having a rally. Far left activism is actually causing structural damage to our institutions. I would have liked to see Trump be more forceful in  condemning white supremacy, but he was right in immediately pivoting to far-left extremism.  

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Conservative Elector 2 said:

I guess you mean Biden in your post?

Thanks. Fixed. Covid shutdown and staying in all day is affecting my ability to think way more than I wish to admit. Lots of mistakes I usually don't make in about everything I'm doing. Too young for early onset dementia, but it feels like it sometimes. 

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@vcczar 

Did it bother you that while Biden said he would accept the election results and to calm his followers if he loses, Trump would not commit to this, encouraged the "Proud Boys" to "stand back and stand by," and would only accept the result via the Supreme Court?

I don't recall Trump saying that he, "would only accept the results via the supreme Court"

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I am bothered  because his condemnation wasn't good, but saying it wasn't there is false. 

President Trump was asked by moderator Chris Wallace: "Are you willing, tonight, to condemn white supremacists and militia groups, and to say that they need to stand down and not add to the violence in a number of these cities as we saw in Kenosha, and as we have seen in Portland." Trump replied "Sure" and "Sure, I am willing to do that"

I call that a condemnation (certainly not a good one, but it's still one).

Regarding the election, I am not bothered at all. If there is evidence, the results were rigged, it's totally okay to not accept them and go to the courts. Remember Hillary told Biden not to concede the election under any circumstances. So Hillary doesn't even need any evidence of electoral fraud to say ''we are not going the accept the results''.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/hillary-clinton-says-biden-should-not-concede-2020-election-under-n1238156

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Just now, BeetleJuice said:

@vcczar The threat from white-supremacy groups are over-hyped by the media. The idea that there are highly organized white-supremacy groups is absurd. White Supremacy groups consist of a bunch of idiots meeting, and occasionally having a rally. Far left activism is actually causing structural damage to our institutions. I would have liked to see Trump be more forceful in  condemning white supremacy, but he was right in immediately pivoting to far-left extremism.  

 

 

But the anti-fascist movement is even less organized. They aren't even really a group. It's a theory. In fact, it's impossible to list it as a terrorist group since it isn't an organization like that KKK is. So to claim that white supremacy gets a pass for being unorganized doesn't really work since they are more organized. 

Here's another thing. Right Wing Extremism has killed far more people than Left Wing extremism, according to a study: https://www.businessinsider.com/right-wing-extremists-kill-329-since-1994-antifa-killed-none-2020-7

I would suggest that left-wing extremist movements are also over-hyped by the media, especially since most of the damage is done by looters, who aren't even attached to the protestors, except to make the most of a situation.

Your own argument undoes itself. 

 

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Just now, Conservative Elector 2 said:

I am bothered  because his condemnation wasn't good, but saying it wasn't there is false. 

President Trump was asked by moderator Chris Wallace: "Are you willing, tonight, to condemn white supremacists and militia groups, and to say that they need to stand down and not add to the violence in a number of these cities as we saw in Kenosha, and as we have seen in Portland." Trump replied "Sure" and "Sure, I am willing to do that"

I call that a condemnation (certainly not a good one, but it's still one).

Regarding the election, I am not bothered at all. If there is evidence, the results were rigged, it's totally okay to not accept them and go to the courts. Remember Hillary told Biden not to concede the election under any circumstances. So Hillary doesn't even need any evidence of electoral fraud to say ''we are not going the accept the results''.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/hillary-clinton-says-biden-should-not-concede-2020-election-under-n1238156

That's incredibly out of context. He was basically saying that he would respond to the question, and he was about to say what he said he was willing to do, and then he didn't do it. It was a confirmation. It was an intention, if you keep listening. He never followed through. 

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2 minutes ago, vcczar said:

But the anti-fascist movement is even less organized. They aren't even really a group. It's a theory. In fact, it's impossible to list it as a terrorist group since it isn't an organization like that KKK is. So to claim that white supremacy gets a pass for being unorganized doesn't really work since they are more organized. 

Here's another thing. Right Wing Extremism has killed far more people than Left Wing extremism, according to a study: https://www.businessinsider.com/right-wing-extremists-kill-329-since-1994-antifa-killed-none-2020-7

I would suggest that left-wing extremist movements are also over-hyped by the media, especially since most of the damage is done by looters, who aren't even attached to the protestors, except to make the most of a situation.

Your own argument undoes itself. 

 

Oh sorry, I guess I missed the news reports about the KKK causing $500 million worth of damage in civil unrest in Minneapolis. 

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4 minutes ago, BeetleJuice said:

@vcczar 

Did it bother you that while Biden said he would accept the election results and to calm his followers if he loses, Trump would not commit to this, encouraged the "Proud Boys" to "stand back and stand by," and would only accept the result via the Supreme Court?

I don't recall Trump saying that he, "would only accept the results via the supreme Court"

I was paraphrasing to make the question shorter, but while they were discussing accepting the election results, he said he wanted it to go to the court. 

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4 minutes ago, Conservative Elector 2 said:

Regarding the election, I am not bothered at all. If there is evidence, the results were rigged, it's totally okay to not accept them and go to the courts. Remember Hillary told Biden not to concede the election under any circumstances. So Hillary doesn't even need any evidence of electoral fraud to say ''we are not going the accept the results''.

 

I didn't realize Hillary Clinton was running for President.

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Just now, vcczar said:

I was paraphrasing to make the question shorter, but while they were discussing accepting the election results, he said he wanted it to go to the court. 

In the case of a contested election, the Supreme Court should of course have the final say. Would you rather see an outcome of a contested election be decided on the streets by far left and far right activist? 

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Just now, BeetleJuice said:

Oh sorry, I guess I missed the news reports about the KKK causing $500 million in civil unrest in Minneapolis. 

Again, that was mostly looters, unattached to the protests. Also, you seem to be valuing property, which can be rebuilt, more than human lives, which cannot be brought back. That's just plain wrong.  Right Wing Extremism has killed over 300 people according to that study and Left Wing Extremism has killed zero.

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3 minutes ago, BeetleJuice said:

Oh sorry, I guess I missed the news reports about the KKK causing $500 million worth of damage in civil unrest in Minneapolis. 

I didn't realize that human lives didn't count as damage as what vcczar said about 329 deaths due to the far-right and 0 attributed to Antifa. 

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Just now, Hestia11 said:

I didn't realize Hillary Clinton was running for President.

Does that make any difference at all? The statement is not her best obviously and I am inclined to believe Biden will follow her advice. Anyway, I'd prefer people like the Clintons or the Obamas to take a leaf out of Bush's book. He and Laura are staying more or less quiet instead of being very vocal.

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39 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

The consensus I see is that the debate was a mess, and no one was really a winner, Wallace was the biggest loser, but if you had to pick someone who won it would be Biden. (Haven't watched the debate.)

In PI terms, Biden scored at 0 at Trump scored at -6.  Would the game declare Biden had won the debate in that instance?

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