State of the Race: 34 Days Left

[vcczar 1,224]

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As usual, Blue trends for Biden and Red trends for Trump. 

Not much movement today. Best shift was for Biden who moved half a point in PA after two quality polls show Biden with a +9 lead vs. Trump. 

Trump had more state shifts today than Biden, but the movements are very slight.

Alaska has been added to the battleground states. Although few, every AK poll (about 1 a month, sometimes 2) has Biden competitive with Trump in this state, including in one released last night, which has Biden within a margin of victory. Despite that, I'll still consider AK Likely Red instead of Leans Red. 

Categories	34 Days Left	A Week Ago	100 Days Left
Gen Avg	Biden 7.1 (-0.2)	Biden +0.1	Biden -0.9
AK avg	Trump 4.5 (0)	Trump -1.2	Trump -0.3
AZ avg	Biden 3.6 (0)	Biden -0.4	Biden +0.7
FL avg	Biden 1.8 (0)	Biden +0.1	Biden -5.8
GA avg	Trump 1.1 (0)	Trump +0.5	Trump -0.2
IA avg	Trump 0.7 (0)	Trump -0.4	Trump +0.4
MI Avg	Biden 6.9 (0)	Biden +0.5	Biden -0.5
MN avg	Biden 8.8 (0)	Biden -0.3	Biden -2.3
MO avg	Trump 6.7 (0)	Trump -0.1	Trump +1.2
MT avg	Trump 8.0 (0)	Trump -0.7	Trump -2.7
NV avg	Biden 6.5 (0)	Biden +0.9	Biden -0.2
NH Avg	Biden 6.9 (0)	Biden +0.2	Biden -0.6
NC avg	Biden 1.1 (-0.2)	Biden -0.1	Biden -1.1
OH avg	Biden 1.0 (-0.1)	Biden +2.5	Biden -1.1
PA Avg	Biden 5.4 (+0.5)	Biden +0.9	Biden -1.4
SC avg	Trump 7.6 (+0.1)	Trump +0.7	Trump +1.0
TX avg	Trump 1.8 (0)	Trump +1.0	Trump +1.8
WI Avg	Biden 6.7 (-0.2)	Biden +0.1	Biden -0.4
Trump Approval	43.7 (-0.1)	1.1	3.5
Trump Disapproval	52.5 (+0.1)	-1.3	-3.2
Favorability	Biden 15.8 (-0.3)	Biden -0.6	Biden +4.1
Direction of the Country	-34.8 (+0.4)	3.2	10.7
Generic Ballot	Dem 6.0 (+0.4)	Dem +0.2	Dem -2.6
Betting Markets	Biden 54.9 (+0.3)	Biden +1.6	Biden -5.8
Clinton vs. Trump 2016 GE	Clinton +7
Biden vs Clinton GE Polls	Biden +0.1

[admin_270 785]

Presidents tend not to have good first debates, so I wouldn't be surprised if most people consider Biden to have won the debate, as long as he doesn't have major gaffes or brain-freezes.

Biden has more time to prepare for the debate, and has done a lot of debates relatively recently because of the primaries.

[admin_270 785]

"Expand the Supreme Court to 50 with one justice from each state."

Depends on how this is done. Are they elected? Appointed by the governor? Appointed by the President?

[vcczar 1,224]

15 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

"Expand the Supreme Court to 50 with one justice from each state."

Depends on how this is done. Are they elected? Appointed by the governor? Appointed by the President?

Which do you think is best? Elected would be more representative, but I didn't think about that when I put this option.

[Conservative Elector 2 333]

I won't watch it live but tomorrow probably.

[admin_270 785]

23 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Which do you think is best? Elected would be more representative, but I didn't think about that when I put this option.

Well, in theory federal judges should just be applying the law. So I don't think the point of the judiciary is to be representative. Representation is relevant to the legislature.

I'm also not sure why having 1 from each state would be a good idea if representation is the goal - the Senate does this, and it's not as representative as the House.

So if being representative is the goal, perhaps having a large body like the House with elections every 4 years, say. But that sounds like a bad idea to me.

 

[vcczar 1,224]

3 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Well, in theory federal judges should just be applying the law. So I don't think the point of the judiciary is to be representative. Representation is relevant to the legislature.

I'm also not sure why having 1 from each state would be a good idea if representation is the goal - the Senate does this, and it's not as representative as the House.

So if being representative is the goal, perhaps having a large body like the House with elections every 4 years, say. But that sounds like a bad idea to me.

 

The ideas behind the 50 judges is that every state would feel represented under the law and that each state would have an even stronger bond to the government. I came up with this idea partially because so many justices are from DC or NY. Obviously, the purpose of this branch isn't to represent the people, but if one was to make reform that did represent the people in all levels of government (but not necessarily in all ways), this would be a way to do it. 

Conservatives might like this in response to the Senate reform suggestion, which would help Democrats (although the purpose of that reform is non-ideological--it's just for more representation). The Supreme Court would pretty much always be 30-20 right-leaning in this situation, although some would be swing justices. 

 

[Actinguy 862]

1 hour ago, admin_270 said:

Presidents tend not to have good first debates, so I wouldn't be surprised if most people consider Biden to have won the debate, as long as he doesn't have major gaffes or brain-freezes.

Biden has more time to prepare for the debate, and has done a lot of debates relatively recently because of the primaries.

Counter:  Expectations for Trump could not possibly be lower -- especially for a sitting President.  

Much like the 2008 VP debate in which Biden faced off against newbie Sarah Palin, the fact that Palin did not burst into tears and mispronounce her own name led everyone to announce that Palin had surpassed expectations and won the debate even though she of course had not performed at Biden's level.

Once again, Biden faces off against an idiot who will be given bonus points if his pants remain on for the entire debate. 

There is no way for Biden (or anyone else) to exceed expectations against Trump.

[admin_270 785]

3 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

Counter:  Expectations for Trump could not possibly be lower -- especially for a sitting President.  

Much like the 2008 VP debate in which Biden faced off against newbie Sarah Palin, the fact that Palin did not burst into tears and mispronounce her own name led everyone to announce that Palin had surpassed expectations and won the debate even though she of course had not performed at Biden's level.

Once again, Biden faces off against an idiot who will be given bonus points if his pants remain on for the entire debate. 

There is no way for Biden (or anyone else) to exceed expectations against Trump.

Ya, I'm not sure which way the expectations game goes. Some people have painted Biden as a geriatric fool who can barely speak straight. But there's also a caricature of Trump. Point taken - the caricature that is more common is probably against Trump, so he might benefit from the expectations game.

[Defiant 84]

Not sure if I'll watch it or just highlights, but for most of the primary debates I watched the highlights (if that), so I marked that.

I think Biden will win because of the lowered expectations that the Trump campaign has (foolishly) pushed for so long makes it easier for him to beat those expectations.  I don't think the debates will have much effect, though, because I don't think there's many people that are still undecided or willing to be persuaded at this point (and besides, debate bumps usually go away after a few days).  Maybe it gets some voters excited and they're more likely to vote early/mail in their ballot, rather than procrastinate (and potentially end up not voting)?

[ThePotatoWalrus 471]

This data is probably outdated considering this is from September, but I still found it interesting.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/09/06/poll-more-pick-donald-trump-over-joe-biden-win-debates/5707265002/ 

More Americans pick Donald Trump over Joe Biden to win debates (47% to 41%)

"Trump is gonna run all over Biden," said Curtis Saffi, 38, an independent from Hampton, Georgia, who plans to vote for Biden. He expects a different outcome, however, in the vice presidential debate.

"Kamala Harris," Saffi added, "she is gonna be all over (Mike) Pence."

[Actinguy 862]

16 minutes ago, Defiant said:

Not sure if I'll watch it or just highlights, but for most of the primary debates I watched the highlights (if that), so I marked that.

I think Biden will win because of the lowered expectations that the Trump campaign has (foolishly) pushed for so long makes it easier for him to beat those expectations.  I don't think the debates will have much effect, though, because I don't think there's many people that are still undecided or willing to be persuaded at this point (and besides, debate bumps usually go away after a few days).  Maybe it gets some voters excited and they're more likely to vote early/mail in their ballot, rather than procrastinate (and potentially end up not voting)?

I agree that most voters are certainly decided.  It could have a small impact on turnout in either direction.  

I think the real impact is with the other politicians.  If Trump completely bombs and says things that other Republican Senators and Representatives facing re-election have to defend, I think you see more of a rift/separation occurring in the Republican party.

That said, the rift was plenty wide in 2016 and it didn't matter at all.