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Alaska might be in play


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This is unheard of but Alaska might be in play. There's been very little polling, but here's what there is:

  • Today: Trump only +1 vs Biden
  • End of July: Trump +6 vs Biden
  • End of June: Trump only +1 vs Biden
  • Early June: Trump only +3 vs Biden
  • One year ago Trump was consistently +16 to +18. 

He walloped Clinton here in 2016. This seems like yet another red flag for Trump. AK will likely be added to my State of the Race updates tomorrow: 

 

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9 minutes ago, vcczar said:

This is unheard of but Alaska might be in play. There's been very little polling, but here's what there is:

  • Today: Trump only +1 vs Biden
  • End of July: Trump +6 vs Biden
  • End of June: Trump only +1 vs Biden
  • Early June: Trump only +3 vs Biden
  • One year ago Trump was consistently +16 to +18. 

He walloped Clinton here in 2016. This seems like yet another red flag for Trump. AK will likely be added to my State of the Race updates tomorrow: 

 

Fun fact. Alaska has one of the strongest State separatist parties active of any State in the U.S. - the Alaska Independence Party - which, in fact has produced a Governor in living memory (Jack Coughall), and the McCain campaign had to do "pre-emptive damage control," when it became apparent that Todd Palin had significant strong affiliations with the party - something to the tune of, "tell them, Sarah, that Todd loves America."

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3 minutes ago, Patine said:

Fun fact. Alaska has one of the strongest State separatist parties active of any State in the U.S. - the Alaska Independence Party - which, in fact has produced a Governor in living memory (Jack Coughall), and the McCain campaign had to do "pre-emptive damage control," when it became apparent that Todd Palin had significant strong affiliations with the party - something to the tune of, "tell them, Sarah, that Todd loves America."

There's quite a few state independent parties. Technically, MN's Democratic Party is the Democratic-Farmer Labor Party. 

If you look at the history of WI, MN, SD, ND, you'll see a lot of 3rd party people elected to office -- mostly populists to some degree, but often the leftwing variety. In general, the US West of the Mississippi has been more susceptible to 3rd party voting. The East Coast is more establishment, even its Progressive elements (VT not included). 

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19 minutes ago, vcczar said:

This is unheard of but Alaska might be in play. There's been very little polling, but here's what there is:

  • Today: Trump only +1 vs Biden
  • End of July: Trump +6 vs Biden
  • End of June: Trump only +1 vs Biden
  • Early June: Trump only +3 vs Biden
  • One year ago Trump was consistently +16 to +18. 

He walloped Clinton here in 2016. This seems like yet another red flag for Trump. AK will likely be added to my State of the Race updates tomorrow: 

 

I feel like this was believed in 2016 as well, and obviously did not come to pass.

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3 minutes ago, vcczar said:

There's quite a few state independent parties. Technically, MN's Democratic Party is the Democratic-Farmer Labor Party. 

If you look at the history of WI, MN, SD, ND, you'll see a lot of 3rd party people elected to office -- mostly populists to some degree, but often the leftwing variety. In general, the US West of the Mississippi has been more susceptible to 3rd party voting. The East Coast is more establishment, even its Progressive elements (VT not included). 

I don't mean "Independent," Party, I actually mean "Independence," Party. Like the Bloc Quebecois or Scottish National Party, as notable analogs.

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5 minutes ago, vcczar said:

There's quite a few state independent parties. Technically, MN's Democratic Party is the Democratic-Farmer Labor Party. 

If you look at the history of WI, MN, SD, ND, you'll see a lot of 3rd party people elected to office -- mostly populists to some degree, but often the leftwing variety. In general, the US West of the Mississippi has been more susceptible to 3rd party voting. The East Coast is more establishment, even its Progressive elements (VT not included). 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaskan_Independence_Party

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5 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

I feel like this was believed in 2016 as well, and obviously did not come to pass.

You might be right, but it was never this close. I think it was like +9 for Clinton at some point and everyone thought Clinton had a shot. Trump won about +14

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1 minute ago, vcczar said:

You might be right, but it was never this close. I think it was like +9 for Clinton at some point and everyone thought Clinton had a shot. Trump won about +14

Those percentage margins can shift VERY quickly in such a low-population State.

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2 minutes ago, vcczar said:

You might be right, but it was never this close. I think it was like +9 for Clinton at some point and everyone thought Clinton had a shot. Trump won about +14

 

8 minutes ago, Actinguy said:

I feel like this was believed in 2016 as well, and obviously did not come to pass.

Actually, the last poll was +4 for Trump in 2016 but I've never heard of the polling agency or ever heard from it again. Other polls were also by one-time polling agencies showing a close election. 

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I've heard that it and South Carolina would be the next tier of states to flip in a big blowout after the states that have been widely mentioned (eg, OH, TX, GA, IA), but it's a big gap.  Interesting that it's still close there.

 

Also, I've heard that the Independent candidate for Senate there, while an underdog, may have a chance of winning.

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1 minute ago, Defiant said:

I've heard that it and South Carolina would be the next tier of states to flip in a big blowout after the states that have been widely mentioned (eg, OH, TX, GA, IA), but it's a big gap.  Interesting that it's still close there.

 

Also, I've heard that the Independent candidate for Senate there, while an underdog, may have a chance of winning.

On top of that, I think Democrats are making a serious play for the House seat to try and flip a delegation in the case the presidency gets thrown to the House.

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