State of the Race: 35 Days Left
35 Day Poll
20 members have voted
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1. See the Data in the First Post: Who do you think wins if the election were today?
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Trump
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Biden
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2. Is the NYT article about Trump not having paid taxes in 10 of 15 years, having paid only $750 in two of the years, and having paid more taxes overseas than in the US an "October Surprise"?
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Yes, it is shocking enough to be an "October Surprise." Watch his polls numbers slide.
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It will have a temporary negative effect on Trump's support, and then mostly be forgotten.
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It just going to energize both bases, so no real effect.
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It won't do anything. "Nothing Burger"
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3. What are the clearest signs that Biden will defeat Trump in 2020?
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National and statewide polling averages that have consistently shown Biden at about +7 nationally and with 290 EVs (often 320ish+ range), both things Clinton struggled to do.
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Trump's consistently low approval ratings and consistently high disapproval ratings.
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That Biden is polling landslides without even campaigning.
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That Trump's not polling well in states that he won and where he should have been expanding his support if he were a good/liked president.
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Other (mention below)
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4. What are the clearest signs that Trump will defeat Biden in 2020?
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Today's poll showing an improvement in his approval and direction of the country
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That the polls were off in 2016; therefore, they must be off in 2020.
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That Covid restrictions are being lifted, which means people will be happier and might give Trump a 2nd chance as the economy slowly comes back to life for most Americans.
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That Biden isn't campaigning, so something serious must be wrong. Regardless, it will allow Trump to catch up.
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Other (mention below)
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5. How apologetic of a person are you?
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I'm constantly apologizing even for other people's mistakes.
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I generally apologize when someone thinks I did something wrong, sometimes even when I know I definitely didn't.0
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I generally apologize when I'm wrong or when someone makes the argument that in some way I am wrong.
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I generally apologize only when I realize that I'm wrong, but not if I'm not convinced of my own wrongness.
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I generally apologize only when I realize that I'm wrong and only if the other person catches in what way I am wrong. I never voluntarily apologize or make it easy for me to apologize.
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I don't apologize but I try to show it in other ways by changing the subject or doing something nice when I'm wrong.
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I generally refuse to apologize and refuse to admit that I am wrong, even if I think there's a chance that I am.
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I have never done anything that is worth apologizing for.0
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