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State of the Race: 35 Days Left


35 Day Poll  

20 members have voted

  1. 1. See the Data in the First Post: Who do you think wins if the election were today?

  2. 2. Is the NYT article about Trump not having paid taxes in 10 of 15 years, having paid only $750 in two of the years, and having paid more taxes overseas than in the US an "October Surprise"?

    • Yes, it is shocking enough to be an "October Surprise." Watch his polls numbers slide.
    • It will have a temporary negative effect on Trump's support, and then mostly be forgotten.
    • It just going to energize both bases, so no real effect.
    • It won't do anything. "Nothing Burger"
  3. 3. What are the clearest signs that Biden will defeat Trump in 2020?

    • National and statewide polling averages that have consistently shown Biden at about +7 nationally and with 290 EVs (often 320ish+ range), both things Clinton struggled to do.
    • Trump's consistently low approval ratings and consistently high disapproval ratings.
    • That Biden is polling landslides without even campaigning.
    • That Trump's not polling well in states that he won and where he should have been expanding his support if he were a good/liked president.
    • Other (mention below)
  4. 4. What are the clearest signs that Trump will defeat Biden in 2020?

    • Today's poll showing an improvement in his approval and direction of the country
    • That the polls were off in 2016; therefore, they must be off in 2020.
    • That Covid restrictions are being lifted, which means people will be happier and might give Trump a 2nd chance as the economy slowly comes back to life for most Americans.
    • That Biden isn't campaigning, so something serious must be wrong. Regardless, it will allow Trump to catch up.
    • Other (mention below)
  5. 5. How apologetic of a person are you?

    • I'm constantly apologizing even for other people's mistakes.
    • I generally apologize when someone thinks I did something wrong, sometimes even when I know I definitely didn't.
      0
    • I generally apologize when I'm wrong or when someone makes the argument that in some way I am wrong.
    • I generally apologize only when I realize that I'm wrong, but not if I'm not convinced of my own wrongness.
    • I generally apologize only when I realize that I'm wrong and only if the other person catches in what way I am wrong. I never voluntarily apologize or make it easy for me to apologize.
    • I don't apologize but I try to show it in other ways by changing the subject or doing something nice when I'm wrong.
    • I generally refuse to apologize and refuse to admit that I am wrong, even if I think there's a chance that I am.
    • I have never done anything that is worth apologizing for.
      0


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As usual, Blue trends for Biden and Red trends for Trump. 

Nothing major over the weekend to shift the polls that much. Biden has a better day overall.

Biggest move, however, is Trump's standing in SC. Trump's best news might be that his approval is now averaging very close to 44%--easily his highest in the last 100 day period. This is probably based on his plan to appoint a conservative to the bench. However, I expect this to drop at least 1 point because of the news of his taxes. Additionally, Trump's "Direction of the County" is at its best as well in the last 100 day period.

SC moves from Likely R to Safe R. 

Categories 35 Days A Week Ago 100 Days Left
Gen Avg Biden 7.3 (+0.2) Biden +0.4 Biden -0.7
AZ avg Biden 3.6 (+0.3) Biden -0.9 Biden +0.7
FL avg Biden +1.8 (+0.2) Biden -0.2 Biden -5.8
GA avg Trump 1.1 (-0.1) Trump +0.4 Trump -0.2
IA avg Trump 0.7 (-0.1) Trump -0.4 Trump +0.4
MI Avg Biden 6.9 (0) Biden -0.6 Biden -0.5
MN avg Biden 8.8 (-0.7) Biden -0.3 Biden -2.3
MO avg Trump 6.7 (-0.1) Trump -0.2 Trump +2.2
MT avg Trump 8.0 (-0.2) Trump -0.1 Trump -2.7
NV avg Biden 6.5 (-0.3) Biden +1.0 Biden -0.2
NH Avg Biden 6.9 (+0.2) Biden +0.3 Biden -0.6
NC avg Biden 1.3 (+0.2) Biden +0.1 Biden -0.9
OH avg Biden 1.1 (+0.1) Biden -0.4 Biden -1.0
PA Avg Biden 4.9 (+0.2) Biden +0.4 Biden -1.9
SC avg Trump 7.5 (+0.6) Trump +0.6 Trump +0.9
TX avg Trump 1.8 (-0.1) Trump +1.0 Trump +1.8
WI Avg Biden 6.9 (+0.4) Biden +0.5 Biden -0.2
Trump Approval 43.8 (+0.6) 1.3 3.6
Trump Disapproval 52.4 (-0.7) -0.7 -3.3
Favorability Biden +16.1 (0) Biden -0.7 Biden +4.4
Direction of the Country -34.4 (+2.8) 4.4 11.1
Generic Ballot Dem 5.6 (+0.1) Dem +0.5 Dem -3.0
Betting Markets Biden 54.6 (+1.1) Biden +0.3 Biden -6.1
Clinton vs. Trump 2016 GE Clinton +5    
Biden vs Clinton GE Polls Biden +2.3    

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'That the polls were off in 2016; therefore, they must be off in 2020.'

It's obviously not evidence that they must be off in 2020 - so I haven't selected it. But it's definitely proof that it's possible. I continue to think Trump will win, but that's a combination pessimism, and the fact that, as he is now, he was obviously the worst option in 2016 and enough Americans still voted for him then. I hope the polls are right and that the numbers have changed, I just doubt a significant enough number who were willing to vote for him in 2016 have changed their minds.
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1 minute ago, admin_270 said:

Another day, another ~9am lid for the Biden campaign.

https://twitter.com/WardDPatrick/status/1310579433212870656?s=20

 

Debate is tomorrow. More understandable. I read an interesting article on how Jill Biden and Doug Emhoff are doing more campaigning than their spouses.

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15 minutes ago, Hestia11 said:

Debate is tomorrow. More understandable. I read an interesting article on how Jill Biden and Doug Emhoff are doing more campaigning than their spouses.

Ya, that's ... understandable the day before a debate, but odd if true in general.

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I apologize for other people's mistakes for a living.  I'm a spokesman.  ;c)

In "real life" (when I'm not being paid) I'm quick to both apologize and to forgive for any potential misunderstanding, because it costs me nothing, it lets people save face, and it gets us back to a more useful place.  You don't last long in a marriage if you don't learn how to apologize for things that weren't your fault. ;c)

On the internet...I'll certainly apologize if I feel I've overstepped, misinterpreted something, unintentionally offended somebody, shared information that turned out not to be correct, etc.  

But if I don't feel that I actually did anything wrong...well..."strangers on the internet" is literally the only piece of my life where I don't have to worry about whether people actually like me or whether they'll partner with me again in the future.  

It's freeing. ;c)

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"4. What are the clearest signs that Trump will defeat Biden in 2020?" Other > Huge discrepancy in enthusiasm and ground game, combined with reason to believe Trump supporters underreporting to pollsters would be the main reasons at this point IMHO.

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My daughter is seven years old.  When she was maybe five years old, she started asking me why my wife and I say "fake news" with a silly voice, so I explained that we were making fun of a mean person.  Shortly after that, she asked me who the weird guy on my book was (I was reading "Fire and Fury".)  So I started teaching her that this was the mean guy mommy and I make fun of, that he's a jerk who doesn't want her Muslim best friend to live here, that he hurts girls.  And I also told her that someday, when she turned seven, she and I would team up to beat him.  She asked if she could call him a Poophead, I said absolutely while also making sure that she could ONLY call this one person by that name, and then I moved on with my life.

I forgot all about the conversation...until my daughter turned seven, and asked when are we going to go punch Donald Trump.

It was at this point that I realized my daughter had misinterpreted what I meant when I said we were going to "beat" him.

I cleared that up with her, of course.

But today we received our yard sign, which she proudly helped me put up.  This brings our neighborhood tally to five Trump signs, four Biden signs.

In 2016, it was something like 28 "Lock Her Up" signs and zero Clinton signs.

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As Actinguy points out, I would also like to say lately, I've seen more and more Biden signs in this southwest rural corner of Iowa than I've ever seen for Democratic candidates. They're still outnumbered, but are gradually closing that gap.

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1 hour ago, Actinguy said:

My daughter is seven years old.  When she was maybe five years old, she started asking me why my wife and I say "fake news" with a silly voice, so I explained that we were making fun of a mean person.  Shortly after that, she asked me who the weird guy on my book was (I was reading "Fire and Fury".)  So I started teaching her that this was the mean guy mommy and I make fun of, that he's a jerk who doesn't want her Muslim best friend to live here, that he hurts girls.  And I also told her that someday, when she turned seven, she and I would team up to beat him.  She asked if she could call him a Poophead, I said absolutely while also making sure that she could ONLY call this one person by that name, and then I moved on with my life.

I forgot all about the conversation...until my daughter turned seven, and asked when are we going to go punch Donald Trump.

It was at this point that I realized my daughter had misinterpreted what I meant when I said we were going to "beat" him.

I cleared that up with her, of course.

But today we received our yard sign, which she proudly helped me put up.  This brings our neighborhood tally to five Trump signs, four Biden signs.

In 2016, it was something like 28 "Lock Her Up" signs and zero Clinton signs.

That's awesome!

I see new Biden signs every day here, but I live in like a 75%+ Dem area

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2 hours ago, Hestia11 said:

As Actinguy points out, I would also like to say lately, I've seen more and more Biden signs in this southwest rural corner of Iowa than I've ever seen for Democratic candidates. They're still outnumbered, but are gradually closing that gap.

I've also seen two more Biden signs on my work commute than there was 2 weeks ago.

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Just now, ThePotatoWalrus said:

I've also seen two more Biden signs on my work commute than there was 2 weeks ago.

 

2 hours ago, admin_270 said:

"4. What are the clearest signs that Trump will defeat Biden in 2020?" Other > Huge discrepancy in enthusiasm and ground game, combined with reason to believe Trump supporters underreporting to pollsters would be the main reasons at this point IMHO.

 

2 hours ago, Hestia11 said:

As Actinguy points out, I would also like to say lately, I've seen more and more Biden signs in this southwest rural corner of Iowa than I've ever seen for Democratic candidates. They're still outnumbered, but are gradually closing that gap.

 

2 hours ago, Actinguy said:

My daughter is seven years old.  When she was maybe five years old, she started asking me why my wife and I say "fake news" with a silly voice, so I explained that we were making fun of a mean person.  Shortly after that, she asked me who the weird guy on my book was (I was reading "Fire and Fury".)  So I started teaching her that this was the mean guy mommy and I make fun of, that he's a jerk who doesn't want her Muslim best friend to live here, that he hurts girls.  And I also told her that someday, when she turned seven, she and I would team up to beat him.  She asked if she could call him a Poophead, I said absolutely while also making sure that she could ONLY call this one person by that name, and then I moved on with my life.

I forgot all about the conversation...until my daughter turned seven, and asked when are we going to go punch Donald Trump.

It was at this point that I realized my daughter had misinterpreted what I meant when I said we were going to "beat" him.

I cleared that up with her, of course.

But today we received our yard sign, which she proudly helped me put up.  This brings our neighborhood tally to five Trump signs, four Biden signs.

In 2016, it was something like 28 "Lock Her Up" signs and zero Clinton signs.

Someone posted a poll from one of the usual credible pollsters showing support among White voters in WI and MI in the 2008, 2012, 2016, and in the 2020 election at this point in the election. Generally, the margin is anywhere from even to +10 for a candidate. In 2016, Trump was like +20 in both WI and MI. This poll (I'll see if I can find who tweeted it) has Biden like +3 in WI and Trump only +2 in MI among white voters. This sort of deflates an enthusiasm argument for Trump, if true. It also suggests we might be seeing a lot of Obama-Biden voters returning to Biden after taking a regretful break with Trump. 

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Just now, vcczar said:

EjAnyB7XYAAwHVT?format=png&name=small

So my memory was off a bit from this morning, but it matches the gist of what I'm saying. 

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