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How long does it take a state to realign


vcczar
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I've filled in my spreadsheet for elections from 1960 to the present (had gone back only to 2000). 

Here's how long it took to realign:

  • 1948 *REALIGNMENT IS BEGINNING*: Alabama begins to protest against the Democratic Party by voting 3rd party rather than supporting Truman or Wilkie. All other offices are won by Democrats. 
  • 1960: Alabama once again supports a protest candidate over either the Democratic Party or the GOP. Anti-Catholicism may have played a role in the state not supporting JFK. All other offices are won by Democrats. 
  • 1962: Democratic incumbent Senator Lister Hill wins reelection against a GOP candidate by a narrow margin. 
  • 1964: Alabama protests the Civil Rights Act. Goldwater becomes the first GOP nominee to earn Alabama's votes. Five of the Nine US Rep seats flip from Democrat to GOP. 
  • 1966: Anger over the Civil Rights Act seems to have somewhat subsided as Democrats win back two (almost three) US Rep seats. 
  • 1968: Alabama votes for 3rd Party candidate George Wallace of AL, a protest Southern Democrat over Humphrey or Nixon. Democrats take most of the other seats.
  • 1976: Alabama votes for Jimmy Carter, marking the first time they've voted for the Democratic Ticket for president in 20 years. 
  • 1980: Mini-Reagan Revolution in Alabama. Reagan narrowly defeats Carter in AL. The state will vote for the GOP Presidential ticket from here on out. State also gets their first GOP Senator, but he'll lose it after one term. 
  • 1982: Democratic comeback as the GOP lose a US Rep seat and almost a 2nd one. This is probably due to the 1982 Recession. 
  • 1986: Mini-Reagan Revolution II in Alabama. From here on out (with one exception), the state will elect GOP governors. However, this election saw the Democrats win back the Senate spot they lost. Additionally, Democrats still hold the majority of US Reps by a large margin. 
  • 1994: Gingrich Revolution: Senator Shelby flips party flipping the state to a majority GOP in federal+Gov support for the first time. 
  • 1996: Gingrich Revolution Continues *REALIGNMENT COMPLETE*: Starting now GOP also reliably wins the majority of US Rep seats and (with one exception) both US Senator seats. 

Total time to realign? 38 years if you count the seeds of realignment in 1948. If you count the Civil Rights Act of 1964, then it took 32 years. If you count only presidential elections, then you can make the argument that it happened right at 1964 and the 1976 election was just a fluke/outlier. 

If your curious, here are the events post-realignment that I have notes for. Who knows if it is the start of another trend, although it just seems to make the GOP seem more solid in the state:

  • 2008: Obama surge: Democrats now have 3 US Reps (were closing in on a 4th), allowing for their greatest state influence since before realignment was complete. 
  • 2010: Reaction to Obamacare wipes out Democrat gains and reduces them to only 1 federal politician for the first time in their history.
  • 2018: Controversial Roy Moore candidacy sees Democrat Doug Jones win a US Senate seat, making him the first Democratic Senator elected to office since 1990. 

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I just finished Arkansas now. This state took even longer to realign, partially because I think Bill Clinton singlehandedly extended the life of Democrats in the state. 

Here is the pathway of realignment for Arkansas:

  • 1960: JFK's Catholicsm likely allows for Nixon to be competitive in the state. JFK scores a narrow victory (for a Democrat). Democrats win in the state elsewhere. Solid Blue.
  • 1966: Surprisingly the entire state stays with LBJ through the 1964 election and all officers retain their offices. However, by 1966, GOP shock the nation by taking the governor's mansion and one US Rep! While this was likely a reaction to LBJ's Great Society, new Gov. Winthrop Rockefeller was a liberal Northeasterner. 
  • 1968: The state opts to vote for 3rd Party candidate George Wallace rather than for the Democratic ticket. 
  • 1972: Arkansas votes for a GOP ticket for the first time (Nixon). 
  • 1978: Carter energy crisis allows for another US Rep to flip red. 
  • 1980: Mini-Reagan Revolution allows for the state to be approx half Blue and half Red. Incumbent Gov. Bill Clinton is defeated because of this wave.
  • 1982: Reagan recession sees Democrats rebound, including Bill Clinton who is governor once again.
  • 1996: Gingrich Revolution renews GOP strength in the state for this first time since 1980. Dems still hold half the federal officers + the governor. They also vote Clinton for president.
  • 2006: Reaction against Bush's handling of Iraq and possibly the economy as well allow for Democrats to erase all gains of the Gingrich Revolution. 
  • 2010: Reaction against Obamacare sees state flip to Solid Red. *Realignment achieved*

AL took 32 years to realign following the 1964 Civil Rights Act. AR takes 46 years. In my estimation, Bill Clinton extended the life of the Democratic Party in this state. Bill Clinton had been a major Arkansas figure from 1974-2000. 

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7 hours ago, vcczar said:

I've filled in my spreadsheet for elections from 1960 to the present (had gone back only to 2000). 

Here's how long it took to realign:

  • 1948 *REALIGNMENT IS BEGINNING*: Alabama begins to protest against the Democratic Party by voting 3rd party rather than supporting Truman or Wilkie. All other offices are won by Democrats. 
  • 1960: Alabama once again supports a protest candidate over either the Democratic Party or the GOP. Anti-Catholicism may have played a role in the state not supporting JFK. All other offices are won by Democrats. 
  • 1962: Democratic incumbent Senator Lister Hill wins reelection against a GOP candidate by a narrow margin. 
  • 1964: Alabama protests the Civil Rights Act. Goldwater becomes the first GOP nominee to earn Alabama's votes. Five of the Nine US Rep seats flip from Democrat to GOP. 
  • 1966: Anger over the Civil Rights Act seems to have somewhat subsided as Democrats win back two (almost three) US Rep seats. 
  • 1968: Alabama votes for 3rd Party candidate George Wallace of AL, a protest Southern Democrat over Humphrey or Nixon. Democrats take most of the other seats.
  • 1976: Alabama votes for Jimmy Carter, marking the first time they've voted for the Democratic Ticket for president in 20 years. 
  • 1980: Mini-Reagan Revolution in Alabama. Reagan narrowly defeats Carter in AL. The state will vote for the GOP Presidential ticket from here on out. State also gets their first GOP Senator, but he'll lose it after one term. 
  • 1982: Democratic comeback as the GOP lose a US Rep seat and almost a 2nd one. This is probably due to the 1982 Recession. 
  • 1986: Mini-Reagan Revolution II in Alabama. From here on out (with one exception), the state will elect GOP governors. However, this election saw the Democrats win back the Senate spot they lost. Additionally, Democrats still hold the majority of US Reps by a large margin. 
  • 1994: Gingrich Revolution: Senator Shelby flips party flipping the state to a majority GOP in federal+Gov support for the first time. 
  • 1996: Gingrich Revolution Continues *REALIGNMENT COMPLETE*: Starting now GOP also reliably wins the majority of US Rep seats and (with one exception) both US Senator seats. 

Total time to realign? 38 years if you count the seeds of realignment in 1948. If you count the Civil Rights Act of 1964, then it took 32 years. If you count only presidential elections, then you can make the argument that it happened right at 1964 and the 1976 election was just a fluke/outlier. 

If your curious, here are the events post-realignment that I have notes for. Who knows if it is the start of another trend, although it just seems to make the GOP seem more solid in the state:

  • 2008: Obama surge: Democrats now have 3 US Reps (were closing in on a 4th), allowing for their greatest state influence since before realignment was complete. 
  • 2010: Reaction to Obamacare wipes out Democrat gains and reduces them to only 1 federal politician for the first time in their history.
  • 2018: Controversial Roy Moore candidacy sees Democrat Doug Jones win a US Senate seat, making him the first Democratic Senator elected to office since 1990. 

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The problem with this analysis (and I'm sure you're very aware) is that the first realignment only changed the name of the party label (and moved beyond overt and blatant racist, Jim Crow-style laws, but still retained some subtle and insidious racist legislation), but the main ideological tenor didn't really seem to change.

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7 minutes ago, Patine said:

The problem with this analysis (and I'm sure you're very aware) is that the first realignment only changed the name of the party label (and moved beyond overt and blatant racist, Jim Crow-style laws, but still retained some subtle and insidious racist legislation), but the main ideological tenor didn't really seem to change.

This is about party realignment and not ideological realignment.

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1 minute ago, vcczar said:

This is about party realignment and not ideological realignment.

Fair enough. The first realignment in Alabama just seemed almost cosmetic to me, but I imagine (in fact, I know, myself) it will get obviously more profound in later states down the alphabet.

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Finished California now. This is an odd realignment, and not as jarring as AL and AR, which are posted above. Here's their path to realignment:

  • 1960: CA votes for Nixon, even though they vote slightly more Democrat in the state elsewhere.
  • 1964: LBJ is the first Democrat to take CA since 1948 (16 years)
  • 1966: Reagan becomes governor, possibly prolonging the life of the GOP in the state.
  • 1968: Votes Nixon, but Dems expand in the state.
  • 1972: Nixon surges in his landslide reelection, gaining enough seats to virtually split the state evenly between Democrats and Republicans.
  • 1974: Watergate causes all of Nixon's gains to be lost. Additionally, Reagan is followed in office by Jerry Brown, rather than by another Republican.
  • 1980: Mini-Reagan Revolution sees GOP at about equal strength in the state again. 
  • 1982: State tilts towards Dems during Reagan Recession
  • 1992: Clinton is the first Democrat to take CA since LBJ in 1964 (28 years). It never chooses a Republican president again. Democrats also take enough seats to have a clear advantage.
  • 1996-2000 *Realignment*: The state react against the Gingrich Revolution, picking up a few more offices every two years. GOP at a total disadvantage from which they haven't recovered in the state. 

This state hasn't really a realigning point. Let's say 1980 was the last pure election of old mixed California. It took 20 years for the state to realign to solid Blue. 

Here are some of my notes post-realignment:

  • 2002: Dems take 4 more offices in reaction to Bush's first two years.
  • 2010: One of a few states that Dems hold all of their offices in an election that was a Red Wave reaction to Obamacare.
  • 2018: Blue Wave reaction against Trump sees 6 new offices for Dems. The GOP is close to invisible with only 7 of 56 Federal offices+Gov being GOP. 
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2 minutes ago, vcczar said:

2018: Blue Wave reaction against Trump sees 6 new offices for Dems. The GOP is close to invisible with only 7 of 56 Federal offices+Gov being GOP. 

Also important about this: This marks the first time in the its history that Orange County has no Republicans representing any portion of it in the U.S. House.

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10 hours ago, Reagan04 said:

Also important about this: This marks the first time in the its history that Orange County has no Republicans representing any portion of it in the U.S. House.

Yeah, I remember the second that was announced. I bring this up when one of my Trump supporting friends brags about being an "honorary member of Orange County" when talking about American "good ol' boys." He's a professional pool player, and my former roommate. In 2008, we both went to see Obama and Ted Kennedy speak in person. I was close enough to Obama for his running handshakes as he swiftly made his way to the podiums. My friend was much further back (San Marcos,TX with a crowd of about 15,000 people or more). A few days earlier Ted Kennedy was there, but they had him speak in an auditorium (Obama was outside on a hill overlooking a river like a prophet or something). Ted Kennedy's handshake was like grasping a fleshy doorknob. Bill Clinton was also in town that same week, but I didn't learn about him arriving in time (Chelsea Clinton was the surrogate and Bill Clinton was just joining and was unannounced as arriving). My friend was over-awed with Obama for one day. Despite this, my friend voted Hillary Clinton in the Dem primary the next day or so because "Rush Limbaugh told [him] to." Since Trump's become president, he's become openly racist. Black Lives Matter has just made him more so. I can't even talk to him anymore. He still occasionally name drops Orange County as some sort of representation of his America.  So when I do hear from him, I bring what you say up. 

9 hours ago, TheLiberalKitten said:

I think the realignment of California in terms of becoming more blue began during Pete Wilson's term as Governor, especially with Proposition 187.

It's one thing to consider.

This is just a part of that Gingrich Revolution reaction that I believe was the final piece that realigned the state. So this would be a piece of that piece in a way.

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Finished Colorado. It's hard to tell if this state realigned many times or just got close to realigning one way or the other many times. You be the judge:

  • 1952: Colorado becomes one of many states that favored FDR and Truman but now wants Eisenhower. 
  • 1960: State is about evenly split politically. Voted Nixon for president, but is split in the Senate and US Reps
  • 1962: Possible reaction to JFK sees a GOP surge. GOP takes governor, now has both US Senators, and still splits the US Reps.
  • 1964: Reaction to Goldwater candidacy sees LBJ as first Democrat to win CO since 1948. Gains made in 1962 by GOP are erased. Every US Rep in state is a Democrat.
  • 1968-1970: Reaction to LBJ and Vietnam War sees Nixon win CO and GOP regain dominance in the state. Democrats are reduced to the powerlessness they had in 1962.
  • 1974: Watergate eliminates what could have been a realigning period for the GOP. All gains made by GOP are wiped out and Democrats surge to dominance. Gov, both Senators, and all but two US Reps are Democrats. *Possible Realignment for Dems as they are dominant in the state for 10 years*
  • 1984: Mini-Reagan Revolution sees GOP out influence Democrats at the federal for the first time in 10 years. 
  • 1986: Gains from Mini-Reagan Revolution erase (Iran Contra?) and state is now split politically.
  • 1992: Clinton becomes the first Democrat to win CO since LBJ in 1964; however, GOP outperforms Democrats in the state elsewhere.
  • 1996-1998: Gingrich Revolution sees a surge of GOP success in CO. Senator Campbell switches from Democrat to GOP. Democrats rendered almost invisible *Realignment?*
  • 2004-2006: Reaction to Bush, likely his foreign policy, sees a rapid transition of a heavily GOP state to a heavily Democratic state. The state has been Blue since this time *Realignment*

The realignment, if it exists, is not as smooth as those in the Deep South. It also depends on how long an alignment must exist before it can be said to have realigned. Here's what's happened since 2006:

  • 2008: Obama surge sees GOP almost invisible in the state.
  • 2010-2014: Reaction to Obamacare sees the GOP get close to splitting the state politically
  • 2018: Reaction to Trump gets close to erasing all gains made by GOP in their attempt to split the state. 
  • 2020: Hickenlooper is likely to oust Gardner in the US Senate, which will make the GOP close to invisible, especially if the Dem also flip a vulnerable US Rep seat.
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  • vcczar changed the title to How long does it take a state to realign

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I'll do Florida now, which is an odd realignment in that the party switch isn't as decisive, but here goes:

  • 1928: Deep Blue Deep South state shocks the country by voting for Hoover over the Catholic Dem nominee Al Smith.
  • 1952-1956: Votes for GOP candidate (Eisenhower) and gets their first GOP US Rep since Reconstruction.
  • 1960: FL once again opts for the GOP candidate over a Catholic. Votes Nixon, but votes Blue at the state level.
  • 1964: Unlike much of the South FL sees no GOP gains in response to the Civil Rights Act, additionally LBJ is the first Dem to win FL since 1948.
  • 1968: GOP gains their first US Senator in FL, probably a reaction to LBJ and the war.
  • 1972-1978: Watergate and Carter presidency nearly sees GOP wiped out in the state.
  • 1980-1988: Reagan Revolution: By the beginning of the Reagan presidency, the state shifts instantly to a split a state and rapidly becomes GOP dominant by the end of Reagan's tenure. *Realignment* 

Here's my notes on post-realignment to see if another trend is occurring:

  • 1996: Clinton becomes the first Dem to win FL since Carter (20 years). State is a bellweather in Pres elections henceforth.
  • 2012: State expands, helping Dems more than GOP, but still leaving the GOP dominant.
  • 2018: Blue wave reaction to Trump sees first real life in state Dems since the early 1980s. GOP still dominant. 

FL realigned quicker than AL. Strangely, the Gingrich Revolution didn't really occur in FL like it did in AL. Arguably, Clinton's Dems held their ground or slightly improved their standing during the Gingrich years.

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Finished Georgia, which in part should be, "How Gingrich realigned the country." He's one of my least favorite politicians, but he's a genius. 

Here's Georgia's realignment, which is more similar to Alabama's than say Florida. 

  • 1962: Last year the state went absolutely solid Blue with every Democrat getting over +10 vs a Republican. 
  • 1964: LBJ's Civil Right's Act prompts the state to vote Goldwater, who is the first GOP nom to win GA since Reconstruction. Additionally, the GOP wins a US Rep for the first time.
  • 1966: GOP nom for governor wins the popular vote, but the state uses delegates, which go to the Democratic nominee. 
  • 1968: State votes for 3rd Party Wallace over a Dem or GOP nom
  • 1974-1976: Watergate causes the GOP to be exterminated from the major offices in the state. Gingrich twice loses bids for the US House!
  • 1978: Gingrich becomes the sole elected GOP federal office holder when he wins a US Rep seat.
  • 1980: Mini Reagan Revolution sees GOP get its first US Senator in GA.
  • 1988: Gingrich is once again the only GOP holding a federal office.
  • 1990: Gingrich barely hold on to his seat, which would have wiped the GOP out of the state. It is my belief that this prompted Gingrich's Revolution (Contract with America). He and his party were looking at death's door in the state.
  • 1992-1996: The next three elections see Gingrich's Revolution bring the GOP not only back from the dead but paramount in the state; GOP consistently wins GA in Pres elections from here out; Deal switches parties *REALIGNMENT*

Here's what has happened since realignment (which took 32 years to occur since 1964):

  • 2002: First GOP Gov since Reconstruction
  • 2004: First time to have two GOP US Senators at the same time.

I should say that while the Blue Wave of 2018 helped Democrats, it was only a gain of 1 seat, which puts in on par with 2012. Nothing special. However, if one believes Abrams was cheated out of the governorship due to suppression (as I do), then a future blue GA seems much more possible considering they haven't had a Dem Gov elected in 22 years.

 

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Arizona realignment, which is harder to determine. For @TheLiberalKitten:

  • 1960 (my start date): State is already heavily GOP and has been since FDR, so arguably AZ realignment is with Eisenhower.
  • 1964: State rebels against their own statesman Goldwater by seeing a surge of Democrats win elections, despite Goldwater winning the state in the presidential election. Democrats have a two year period of dominance.
  • 1966: GOP dominance restored, likely a reaction to LBJ and the war.
  • 1976: Watergate and Carter candidacy sees AZ become a split state for the Carter years.
  • 1980-1986: Reagan Revolution sees state return to heavy GOP.
  • 1992: Clinton candidacy nearly splits the state but falls short.
  • 1994: Gingrich Revolution exterminates all major Dem offices, except for one US Rep.
  • 2002: Napolitano is first Dem Gov in 20 years.
  • 2006: Reaction to Bush wars sees Dems get close to splitting AZ
  • 2008: Obama surge sees Dems out influence Dems in state for the first time, despite McCain having won his own state in the pres election. This marks the 2nd time that an AZ pres nominee has actually hurt his party in the state.
  • 2010: Reaction to Obamacare wipes out all gains from Obama's 2008 surge.
  • 2018: Reaction to Trump sees the state Federal Officers + Gov split evenly between Dems and Pres. First Dem senator elected in 30 years (since 1988)

In short, the realignment occurs post-FDR as the state seems to have accepted the New Deal and FDR for Depression and War Time reasons, but seemed to have left the party as these progressive measures continued. It's been mostly consistently red with very brief 2-year periods of rebellion. However, the fact that they are on the verge of getting two Senators might mean the reaction to Trump is going to realign the state, although this is helped with the state swiftly increasing in population. Cities like Democrats. Phoenix is growing fast.

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On 9/27/2020 at 2:44 PM, vcczar said:

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Finished Colorado. It's hard to tell if this state realigned many times or just got close to realigning one way or the other many times. You be the judge:

  • 1952: Colorado becomes one of many states that favored FDR and Truman but now wants Eisenhower. 
  • 1960: State is about evenly split politically. Voted Nixon for president, but is split in the Senate and US Reps
  • 1962: Possible reaction to JFK sees a GOP surge. GOP takes governor, now has both US Senators, and still splits the US Reps.
  • 1964: Reaction to Goldwater candidacy sees LBJ as first Democrat to win CO since 1948. Gains made in 1962 by GOP are erased. Every US Rep in state is a Democrat.
  • 1968-1970: Reaction to LBJ and Vietnam War sees Nixon win CO and GOP regain dominance in the state. Democrats are reduced to the powerlessness they had in 1962.
  • 1974: Watergate eliminates what could have been a realigning period for the GOP. All gains made by GOP are wiped out and Democrats surge to dominance. Gov, both Senators, and all but two US Reps are Democrats. *Possible Realignment for Dems as they are dominant in the state for 10 years*
  • 1984: Mini-Reagan Revolution sees GOP out influence Democrats at the federal for the first time in 10 years. 
  • 1986: Gains from Mini-Reagan Revolution erase (Iran Contra?) and state is now split politically.
  • 1992: Clinton becomes the first Democrat to win CO since LBJ in 1964; however, GOP outperforms Democrats in the state elsewhere.
  • 1996-1998: Gingrich Revolution sees a surge of GOP success in CO. Senator Campbell switches from Democrat to GOP. Democrats rendered almost invisible *Realignment?*
  • 2004-2006: Reaction to Bush, likely his foreign policy, sees a rapid transition of a heavily GOP state to a heavily Democratic state. The state has been Blue since this time *Realignment*

The realignment, if it exists, is not as smooth as those in the Deep South. It also depends on how long an alignment must exist before it can be said to have realigned. Here's what's happened since 2006:

  • 2008: Obama surge sees GOP almost invisible in the state.
  • 2010-2014: Reaction to Obamacare sees the GOP get close to splitting the state politically
  • 2018: Reaction to Trump gets close to erasing all gains made by GOP in their attempt to split the state. 
  • 2020: Hickenlooper is likely to oust Gardner in the US Senate, which will make the GOP close to invisible, especially if the Dem also flip a vulnerable US Rep seat.

As far as I understand it, there are a lot of Cali transplants moving to Colorado as well.  That could be partially responsible for the state's shift towards the blue as well.  Denver has grown a lot over the past decade.

 

5 hours ago, vcczar said:

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I'll do Florida now, which is an odd realignment in that the party switch isn't as decisive, but here goes:

  • 1928: Deep Blue Deep South state shocks the country by voting for Hoover over the Catholic Dem nominee Al Smith.
  • 1952-1956: Votes for GOP candidate (Eisenhower) and gets their first GOP US Rep since Reconstruction.
  • 1960: FL once again opts for the GOP candidate over a Catholic. Votes Nixon, but votes Blue at the state level.
  • 1964: Unlike much of the South FL sees no GOP gains in response to the Civil Rights Act, additionally LBJ is the first Dem to win FL since 1948.
  • 1968: GOP gains their first US Senator in FL, probably a reaction to LBJ and the war.
  • 1972-1978: Watergate and Carter presidency nearly sees GOP wiped out in the state.
  • 1980-1988: Reagan Revolution: By the beginning of the Reagan presidency, the state shifts instantly to a split a state and rapidly becomes GOP dominant by the end of Reagan's tenure. *Realignment* 

Here's my notes on post-realignment to see if another trend is occurring:

  • 1996: Clinton becomes the first Dem to win FL since Carter (20 years). State is a bellweather in Pres elections henceforth.
  • 2012: State expands, helping Dems more than GOP, but still leaving the GOP dominant.
  • 2018: Blue wave reaction to Trump sees first real life in state Dems since the early 1980s. GOP still dominant. 

FL realigned quicker than AL. Strangely, the Gingrich Revolution didn't really occur in FL like it did in AL. Arguably, Clinton's Dems held their ground or slightly improved their standing during the Gingrich years.

The Florida GOP is one of the best state parties in the entire US.  They are constantly on top of their game, and it is a big reason why DeSantis and Scott were able to win in 2018 in spite of a blue-ward shift in most other parts of America.  The Florida GOP has been pretty top notch since the days of Jeb Bush to be quite honest, he did a lot to develop the architecture of that party in the State.

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1 minute ago, Hestia11 said:

Florida GOP and Nevada Dems, two sides of the same coin. 

Fun fact, related to that note. The Republican Party of Hawaii is the ONLY State Affiliate of the Republican Party of the United States whose official platform is Pro-Choice.

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6 minutes ago, Patine said:

Fun fact, related to that note. The Republican Party of Hawaii is the ONLY State Affiliate of the Republican Party of the United States whose official platform is Pro-Choice.

Wow

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Here's IL's realignment:

  • Post-1948 to 1966: State is fairly evenly split between the parties.
  • 1966: GOP now has both US Senators, possibly a reaction to LBJ's policies or war. State still about split.
  • 1970: Senator Dirksen (most power GOP Senator at the time) dies; his old seat goes to a Democrat, giving Democrats a slight advantage in the state.
  • 1974: Reaction to Watergate sees Democrats win several seats and extending their influence.
  • 1976: For reasons I can't explain, GOP surges and now out influences Dems in the state.
  • 1982: Reagan Recession allows Dems to take most of the Federal seats in the state.
  • 1984: While state votes for Reagan overwhelmingly, they vote in their 2nd Democratic Senator and flip one US House seat to Blue.
  • 1992: Clinton becomes the first Democrat to win IL in a presidential election since LBJ in 1964; henceforth IL will always vote Blue in presidential elections.
  • 1994-1998: The Gingrich Revolution sees the GOP split power in the state with Dems and elect their first US Senator in 20 years.
  • 2002: In reaction to Bush, gains made by Gingrich Revolution are wiped out; GOP never regains parity and loses it over the next elections *REALIGNMENT*

This state is hard to find an alignment because at the state federal level it is often a tossup, generally leaning blue already. So I picked the date when the state becomes first reliably blue, despite it not having been reliably Red for ages. Here are my notes for after the realignment:

  • 2008: Obama surge sees GOP reduced to weak minority
  • 2010: Reaction to Obamacare breathes a little life in the GOP helping them gain seats, although still a clear minority.
  • 2014: First GOP Gov elected in 20 years.
  • 2018: Blue Wave reaction to Trump gets close to eliminating GOP from the state. Only 5 Federal officeholders remain for the GOP, and two of these were almost ousted as well--their weakest point in their history.

 

 

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Indiana is finished. Talk about a tussle. Democrats kept hammering the GOP only for them to keep rising back up and ultimately blowing the Dems almost out of the water. Lots of weirdness:

  • 1958: State had generally been a GOP state, but Eisenhower recession sees Dems take charge.
  • 1960: GOP erases gains by Dems in previous election.
  • 1962: Dems bounce back and now possess both US Senators, GOP the minority party.
  • 1964: LBJ becomes the first Dem to win IN in 28 years (Since 1936). GOP reduced to stark minority.
  • 1966-1972: Reaction to LBJ's policies and possibly the war see Dems and GOP splitting the state.
  • 1974: Reaction to Watergate sees Blue Wave once again making GOP a stark minority
  • 1976: Lugar takes Senate seat and Quayle take House seat, bringing GOP back to life, even if they remain a minority.
  • 1980-1986: Mini-Reagan Revolution sees GOP out influence Dems, if only slightly
  • 1988-1992: Despite voting for Bush I, IN reacts against his handling of the economy and GOP is again a stark minority.
  • 1994: Gingrich Revolution sees GOP become paramount, although Democrats still remain a significant minority.
  • 2004: First GOP Gov in 20 years!
  • 2006-2008: Reaction to Bush + Obama surge sees Dems hold more major positions once again. Obama is the first Democrat to win IN in a pres election in 44 years!!!!!
  • 2010: Reaction to Obamacare causes Democratic collapse from which they have not yet recovered *REALIGNMENT*

It appeared as if this state was going to almost realign to a party several times over this time span but it couldn't stay with one part long enough. It's only consistency was in voting for GOP presidential nominees (with two exceptions). I only have one note for the period after the realignment. 

  • 2018: In one of the only bright spots for Trump in the 2018 Blue Wave, Democrats have been reduced to insignificance, holding only 2 US Reps and nothing else.

 

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51 minutes ago, Zenobiyl said:

Its seems like all of these realignments are just temporary changes when put into perspective. With only a few exceptions, most states don’t stay consistent for more than one or two generations.

That’s what a realignment is. It’s never permanent. It’s a once every 30 to 50+ year thing in most cases. 

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Iowa finished. Dedicate this one to @Hestia11

It's very unclear when the realignment begins and when it ends, or if there have been more than one realignment in the 1960-present period. Here's what I got:

  • 1960: GOP increases its already dominant standing in the state as state votes Nixon.
  • 1964: Reaction to Goldwater sees massive gains for Democrats as they become paramount.
  • 1966: Reaction to LBJ and possibly the war, sees almost all gains by Dems wiped out; GOP holds most major offices again.
  • 1972-1974: Strangely votes strongly for Nixon's reelection, but then vote out most GOP major office holders. Dems in majority. This lead is expanded as Watergate continues.
  • 1978: Reaction to Carter sees GOP taking most major offices again, a lead they'll hold for 30 years *Realignment????*
  • 1988: Dukakis first Dem to win IA in pres election since LBJ
  • 1994: Gingrich Rev almost wipes out Dems
  • 1998: Vilsack is first Dem Gov in 32 years
  • 2006-2008: Reaction to Bush and Obama surge see Dems holding more major offices than GOP for first time in 30 years *Realignment ends?*
  • 2010-2014: Reaction to Obama sees Dems almost wiped out.
  • 2018: Reaction to Trump breathes new life into Dems, despite staying in the minority.

Definitely a unique state. It's basically been consistently Red with brief moments of Dem dominance. The vote for Dukakis is probably the strangest vote for this state.

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Finished KS. Here's an example of a state that hasn't realigned anytime soon. It's basically as Republican in 2020 as it has been anytime since 1960 or before. Nevertheless, here are my notes:

  • 1962: Redistricting wipes out last major Democrat holding office in KS.
  • 1964: LBJ becomes first Dem to win KS in 32 years (since FDR in 1932) in reaction to Goldwater. Despite this, GOP holds every major seat in KS. It will never vote for a Dem president again. 
  • 1966: Gov. Docking becomes first major KS Dem in 6 years. 
  • 1994: Gingrich Rev wipes out Dems from KS.
  • 1998: Dems gain 1 US Rep. 
  • 2006: Reaction to Bush and his wars sees Dems rise to three major KS seats (Gov and 2 US Reps), but they are still a weak minority.
  • 2010: Reaction to Obamacare wipes out Dems from KS. 
  • 2018: Blue wave reaction to Trump sees Dems reemerge as the take the Gov office and 1 US Rep.

Overall, almost a futile existence for Democrats. They've been wiped out three times since 1960 and were never close to splitting power.

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Finished KY. I dedicate this one to @jvikings1. The realignment here is a little clearer. 

  • 1960: State votes Nixon and has two GOP Senators, but all but 1 US Rep are Dems
  • 1966-1972: Reaction to LBJ and the wars sees the major offices equally split between Dems and GOP
  • 1974: Watergate causes the GOP party to collapse into the minority party until Gingrich. Both US Senators are now Dems and Dems will control the governorship for 36 years! *Mini-realignment*
  • 1984: McConnell becomes the first GOP senator in almost 20 years. If not for the Reagan landslide, he probably wouldn't have won as the election is close.
  • 1996: Gingrich Revolution sees the GOP minority surge to a dominant majority. GOP will remain dominant hereafter *REALIGNMENT*

Here are my notes after realignment:

  • 1998: GOP now controls both US Senators, which is still the case as of this post.
  • 2004: Fletcher becomes the first GOP Gov in 36 years!
  • 2008: Dems up to a post-Gingrich era high of 3 major KY offices in Obama surge.
  • 2016: Trump friendly state sees Dems reduces to 1 officeholder (a US Rep)
  • 2019: Scandalous Gov. Bevin sees a Dem take the governorship in what is clearly Trump country.
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