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Democrats in Texas may be underrated


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While there is a lot of light shone on the fact that polling was very off in the states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania in 2016, less is talked about the opposite effect - something I've been thinking about now for a few days. I believe that Democrats stand a better chance in Texas than people may think (even if it won't come with an outright victory). Take this, from the polling of the 2018 race between Beto O'Rourke and Ted Cruz

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Emerson was the closest pollster in Texas - yet still had a red bent. Pollsters are getting complacent in states that they believe should be blue (Pennsylvania, Michigan) and red (Texas). Cruz ended up only winning by a little over two points (far closer than the 9 points Trafalgar said, or the 10 points for CBS). Only a single poll in Texas had O'Rourke within two points the entire cycle - which also came from Emerson (a second is shown from the Texas Lyceum where Cruz was +2). The average showed Cruz ahead by 4.2 points more than he would end up winning by. 

Registration efforts by Texas Dems are through the roof: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/31/democrats-push-to-register-voters-in-attempt-to-rip-texas-from-trump

Texas Dems are putting out ads: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/517436-texas-democrats-roll-out-first-wave-of-planned-digital-ads-as-election-day

I'm not predicting Blue Texas come November 3rd. But I think we could be surprised by how close it goes down to the wire. 

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5 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Ya, Emerson did a good job there.

Lots of blue state Dems moving to TX + Dem-leaning immigrants = blue state in 2024?

Probably 2032. There's a lot of Libertarians in TX and different varieties of those. It depends on the type of Democrat being elected. They're basically going to be swing voters. In 2016, about 90% of my Libertarian friends in and around the Austin area voted Clinton over Trump, while the rest voted 3rd party. Those that voted for Clinton over Trump did not like Obama. They didn't like Clinton either, but they preferred her on trade and in some other areas. Those that went 3rd party were Libertarians that were probably more interested non-intervention than with trade. 

TX Dems are also almost exclusively in the cities, small towns, and suburbs of major cities. It's basically solid Republican elsewhere. 

I think 2024 is just too soon. Purple in 2024? Possible. I think they're only purple now because TX doesn't like Trump as much as most red states. If Bush, Rubio, or Kasich were the nominee in 2016, Clinton would have lost TX by twice as much I think. 

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1 minute ago, admin_270 said:

Remember that O'Rourke was 1. a strong candidate for a Senate race, 2. getting national media super star treatment, 3. getting vast amounts of money from out of state, and 4. Ted Cruz isn't exactly a centrist dude.

The main argument that I've heard for O'Rourke's success had more to do with Ted Cruz being both unlikable and polarizing. This argument is supported by the fact that O'Rourke got almost no support in the Democratic primary because he wasn't facing anyone with a chance to win in the primary that was unlikable and polarizing as Cruz. If it was O'Rourke's charisma and likability that caused him to nearly beat Cruz, then that's something that should have still been with him in the primaries. It wasn't there. It likely wasn't in there in 2018. Cruz must have been the primary factor of why Cruz was almost defeated. 

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13 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Probably 2032. There's a lot of Libertarians in TX and different varieties of those. It depends on the type of Democrat being elected. They're basically going to be swing voters. In 2016, about 90% of my Libertarian friends in and around the Austin area voted Clinton over Trump, while the rest voted 3rd party. Those that voted for Clinton over Trump did not like Obama. They didn't like Clinton either, but they preferred her on trade and in some other areas. Those that went 3rd party were Libertarians that were probably more interested non-intervention than with trade. 

TX Dems are also almost exclusively in the cities, small towns, and suburbs of major cities. It's basically solid Republican elsewhere. 

I think 2024 is just too soon. Purple in 2024? Possible. I think they're only purple now because TX doesn't like Trump as much as most red states. If Bush, Rubio, or Kasich were the nominee in 2016, Clinton would have lost TX by twice as much I think. 

 

5 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Could be.

Where I say "small towns" above that should say, "small college towns." Small non-college towns are Republican. Some of the college towns are Republican too, especially if the college has an agricultural focus. 

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43 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

For comparison, recent polls for 2020 TX Senate race (Cornyn vs. Hegar) aren't that different from 2018 (Cruz vs. O'Rourke).

This is key.

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