What Sep.-Oct. surprises might there be?

[Defiant 84]

39 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

Another peace deal between Israel and a M.E. country?

Sudan's already in negotiations.  But, IMO, it's doubtful that it would change the race significantly.

[Defiant 84]

40 minutes ago, admin_270 said:

A lewd Trump tape?

Would that be a surprise?  At this point, it wouldn't even be a surprise if that lewd Trump tape is is one of the debates, considering he talked about his penis size in one of them.

[admin_270 834]

1 minute ago, Defiant said:

Would that be a surprise?

I think it would have to be on the level of or worse than the Access Hollywood tape, but you're right.

[Defiant 84]

13 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I think a Camp David peace deal on the level of Carter's peace deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia

 

 

This one is semi-plausible (the other peace deals were almost assuredly done with SA's consent, there are unofficial relations between the two country).  But I seriously doubt they would go official in the next month, and unless there's a hell of a lot more negotiations that have gone on than anyone's been aware of, it certainly wouldn't be on the level of the Camp David Accords.

[Defiant 84]

31 minutes ago, vcczar said:

 

1. Major Hurricane

(...)

1. Considering how Trump polls when dealing with a hurricane, I don't think this will help him. Probably won't hurt him either. 

It (or some other natural disaster or an accident (eg, three mile island)) could have the potential of making voting/counting the votes more difficult.

[vcczar 1,224]

1 hour ago, admin_270 said:

Let's see if we can predict any September or October surprises. Feel free to brainstorm instead of just saying what you think is likely.

I think something that invalidates most of the mail-in ballots via a court case would be the biggest October Surprise. You'd have people rushing to the polls believing their vote was, is, or might be cancelled. You'd have people that voted but won't go to the polls even if their vote is cancelled. Could be chaos.

[admin_270 834]

2 minutes ago, vcczar said:

something that invalidates most of the mail-in ballots via a court case would be the biggest October Surprise.

That's an interesting point.

[Defiant 84]

The most shocking October surprise of all.  We go to sleep on October 31st and we wake up on October 32nd.

 

Damn you, 2020!  

[Actinguy 862]

The only thing I can imagine that would actually impact the election in a real way would be a serious health collapse for Trump or Biden (or both).  That would be a game changer — either of them collapsing health wise would help Republicans, in my mind.

 

Barring that, there will be no October Surprise.  
 

Only a November through January surprise, in which Trump denies the outcome of the election and refused to leave.

[Defiant 84]

Another issue is when a surprise would happen.  With polls suggesting that Democrats are more likely to vote by mail or vote early, that could mean that a lot of Democratic votes are locked in before the surprise happens.  Of course, it's also possible that the surprise happens early enough that the effect goes away by Election Day and less likely to influence Republican votes.

[Patine 468]

5 hours ago, admin_270 said:

Let's see if we can predict any September or October surprises. Feel free to brainstorm instead of just saying what you think is likely.

Surprise! The American voter are getting cheated and screwed, and having their true choice in leadership taken away, and being presented with two morally bankrupt crooks as the only candidates who are ALLOWED to win - AGAIN!

[Defiant 84]

The writers of 2020 are going to use up all their surprises now, event though there are a bunch more episodes to go (in the week since this thread, there were already two surprises that would have been huge in any normal election).  At this rate, they may not have anything for the season finale.

I'm going to predict invasion from outer space, because they're going to have to go bigger and bigger.

[Actinguy 862]

On 9/25/2020 at 5:13 PM, Actinguy said:

The only thing I can imagine that would actually impact the election in a real way would be a serious health collapse for Trump or Biden (or both).  That would be a game changer — either of them collapsing health wise would help Republicans, in my mind.

DING DING DING.

(Granted, not a full "serious health collapse" yet.  Trump says he's been diagnosed with a potentially deadly disease, but supposedly no actual symptoms at this time.

[Defiant 84]

There's reports saying  he was feeling unwell on Wednesday, which would suggest symptomatic (but also possible it was fatigue or something).